July Crisis Research Articles

Transmediatic depth of «The New York Times» and «El País» in their coverage of Boris Johnson’s resignation

A decade after the implementation of multimedia frameworks in the news media, it is necessary to determine which mechanisms have been incorporated into the daily routines of the news media. To accomplish this, we analysed the channels, forms and intertextual modalities employed by two leading international newspapers in their coverage of an unpredictable news event with global repercussions and a specific period: the UK government crisis of July 2022, which led to the resignation of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. We used a qualitative methodology of transmedia information analysis (Calvo & Serrano Tellería, 2021), adapted to assess the daily operations of online media in updating their content. Additionally, interviews were conducted with the teams responsible for this coverage. The coverage analysis revealed a transmedia depth of ten to eleven informative modalities. We found several residual differences in their audience participation policies. Certain generalist modalities, such as live streaming, video news, podcasts or social networks, were well established and used to attract readership. Furthermore, various models of newsletters and discussion forums with varying levels of access restriction were employed. However, neither of the studied media outlets offered an auditory transcription of their content. While a specific transmedia information model is emerging in digital media, further research should be undertaken to complement these findings.

Can stock trading suspension calm down investors during market crises?

We examine the trading behavior of investors facing a large number of firm-initiated stock trading suspension events during the Chinese stock market crisis in July 2015. Using account-level trading data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we find that investors with a higher fraction of holding value in suspension sell less (or purchase more) of non-suspended stocks. Consequently, non-suspended stocks whose shareholders have a high average account-level suspension fraction experience a short-term relative price appreciation. This evidence indicates that trading suspension can calm down investors and therefore help to stabilize the volatile market during crises.

Lord Haldane and the July Crisis

ABSTRACT There are widely differing interpretations of Lord Haldane’s behaviour during the July crisis. To some historians, the Lord Chancellor was part of a group – alongside Prime Minister H.H. Asquith, Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey and First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill – loyal to the Anglo-French entente cordiale, who supported British intervention. As a former Secretary of War, they also believe he was committed to the early despatch of a British Expeditionary Force to the continent. But some of his contemporaries suspected Haldane of ‘pro-Germanism’, believed that he strove to prevent Britain going to war, that he worked to forestall the despatch of troops to France and that he tried to block Lord Kitchener’s appointment to head the War Office. This essay reconsiders the issue, exploiting evidence unavailable to earlier writers – notably an unpublished memoir by Haldane’s close friend, the Librarian of the House of Lords, Edmund Gosse – and argues that, far from exhibiting sympathy for Germany in 1914, Haldane was at the forefront of those who pushed the Liberal government towards war, having decided, early in the July crisis, that Germany was determined to exploit the situation to tip the balance of power in its own favour. He also acted as an important emotional prop for Grey in the closing week of the crisis and foresaw that the war, far from being ‘over by Christmas’, was likely to last for years.

The July Crisis of 1914 and the Outbreak of the First World War

The July Crisis of 1914 and the Outbreak of the First World War

Crisis management: personal financial well-being and public attitudes toward government intervention

PurposeCrises precipitate strong fiscal responses by government – sometimes toward austerity, other times toward renewed social spending. This variation in approaches to crisis handling has the potential to highlight factors that drive public opinion toward government interventions that may be quite different from those in non-crisis times. This study aims to discuss the aforementioned issues.Design/methodology/approachThis article brings together theories of government policymaking in crises, policy responsiveness and economic voting to assess how personal financial (egocentric) concerns and/or national financial (sociotropic) concerns may influence opinions toward government handling of direct financial supports in a crisis and, more generally, opinions toward social policy interventions. The authors assess this dynamic in the Canadian context using original national survey data collected in the initial stage of the pandemic-based crisis in June and July of 2020 (N = 1290).FindingsThe authors find strong evidence in support of sociotropic concerns shaping government approval and support for greater social policy interventions, but limited evidence to support egocentric concerns, suggesting that social policy attitudes may be more insulated from personal factors than anticipated.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors’ findings suggest that crises may prompt enhanced support for interventionist social policy measures that may lack broad-based support in non-crisis times.Originality/valueThe authors’ findings speak to the ongoing discussion around the possibility for crises to function as policy windows for enhanced social spending and for entrenching targeted financial supports for vulnerable individuals.

Chinese Indonesians’ Thoughts About Indonesia’s Government Handling the 1998 Tragedy

Two decades passed by but the 1998 riot case is still remembered as a traumatic event for Chinese Indonesian people. Started from the economy crisis in July 1997 where Rupiah currency dropped and gave a huge damage to the Indonesia economy and politic section. This crisis made the poor non Chinese Indonesian envied the Chinese Indonesians. The riot reached its peak in May 1998 where Chinese Indonesians got harassed. Many Chinese Indonesians decided to leave Indonesia to live in other countries temporary or forever. Each generation keep reminding this incident made the young Chinese Indonesian generation aware of the Non Chinese Indonesian. This research aims to reveal the thoughts of Chinese Indonesian about the Indonesian government in handling the 1998 riot and examine the reason behind the Chinese Indonesian thoughts. The researcher also hoped that this research can be used as reference in other research related to this 1998 riot.Keywords : 1998 riot, Chinese Indonesians, Indonesia’s Government

Italia și negocierile României pentru intrarea în Primul Război Mondial (1914-1915)

Although the relations between the Great Powers expressed the fundamental trends of the evolution of the international situation in the period preceding the First World War, it is still necessary to specify that a significant role in the international life was acquired by some small and medium-sized states which, by their geographical and political position and through the economic and military potential, they could significantly influence the evolution of international political life. In this context, the importance of Romania’s role in international relations can be seen, given the fact that the Great Powers’ interest in the Romanian state had grown considerably. As the crisis of July 1914 worsened, the question of Romania’s attitude towards the Austro-Serbian conflict became of paramount importance in the future strategy of the Central Powers, because all the plans for attack and defense formations of the Triple Alliance were arranged in cooperation with the Romanian army. Since the beginning of the World War, between Romania and Italy there has been an approach desired by politicians from both states. However, the subsequent evolution of events and the separation of Italy from Romania during the negotiations with the Entente had the effect of weakening the supply of forces that a synchronous Italian-Romanian contribution would have brought it. Obviously, the effect would have been different if the two countries entered at once, both in terms of the military blow given to the Central Powers, and also on the attitude of the neutral countries in the Balkans, Bulgaria and Greece.

Review of July Crisis: The World’s Descent into War, Summer 1914

Review of July Crisis: The World’s Descent into War, Summer 1914

Costly Concealment: Secret Foreign Policymaking, Transparency, and Credible Reassurance

AbstractThis article presents a formal model that shows how states can credibly reassure each other simply by maintaining a cooperative outward narrative. The reassurance literature to date has focused largely on costly signaling, whereby benign states must distinguish themselves by taking specific actions that hostile types would not. The mere lack of overtly expressed hostilitywithoutcostly signals has been considered “cheap talk,” on the assumption that this behavior is costless for hostile states and thus uninformative. In contrast, this paper argues that maintaining a cooperative façade while secretly formulating and executing exploitative policies carries inherent trade-offs, and thus constitutes a credible reassurance signal. Foreign policy planning and implementation requires communication among various individuals, groups, and organizations, which has some probability of being observed and punished by outside actors. Yet efforts to conceal the policymaking process and reduce this probability are costly—they require investments in internal monitoring and restrictions on internal communication that can substantially degrade policy outcomes. Thus, to the extent that a state's foreign policymaking process is transparent—that is, that concealing internal communications is difficult—the absence of positive signals of hostility is a credible signal of its benign intentions. The argument is illustrated with a case study of German reassurance signals during the July Crisis preceding World War I.

ИЮЛЬСКИЙ КРИЗИС 1914 Г.: ПО МАТЕРИАЛАМ НОВЫХ АРХИВНЫХ ПУБЛИКАЦИЙ МИД РФ

The article deals with the events of the July crisis, Nicolas the II’s actions, the leading diplomats’ measures to prevent the turn of the crisis into a full-scale war; the paper also discusses the reasons according to which a compromise proved to be impossible. A large number of the documents published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation allow us to restore and thoroughly analyze the actions of the Russian side, of the diplomats of Austria-Hungary, Germany and Serbia.

The Consequences of the Political Crisis of July 1918 for the Upper Volga Organizations of the Party of Left Socialist-Revolutionaries

The article considers the peculiarities of the position of the Upper Volga organizations of the Party of Left Socialist-Revolutionaries caused by the crisis of July 1918 which marked the beginning of the total loss of the Party’s political influence in the country in whole. The author shows the difficulties and methods of ideological and political struggle between the local Left Socialist-Revolutionaries and the Bolsheviks during the period from July to December 1918, traces the process of ousting the Left Socialist-Revolutionaries from the local Soviets, considers the features of the local Left Socialist-Revolutionaries’ organizational work in the new political reality.

Why 1914 but Not Before? A Comparative Study of the July Crisis and Its Precursors

Why did the July 1914 crisis—but not crises in 1905, 1908–9, 1911, and 1912–13—escalate to great-power war despite occurring under similar international and domestic conditions? Explanations based on underlying and slowly changing structural, social, or cultural variables cannot answer this question. Examining three Balkan crises of 1912–13 and the July Crisis, we refine realist explanations based on power, alliances, and reputational interests by incorporating the impact of changing power distributions and alliances in the Balkans on the great-power security system. A more complete answer to the why-1914-but-not-before question, however, requires the incorporation of Franz Ferdinand’s assassination, which went beyond a pretext for war. It eliminated the most powerful and effective proponent for peace in Vienna and fundamentally changed the nature of the decision-making process in Austria-Hungary. Counterfactually, we argue that a hypothetical crisis with Franz Ferdinand present would probably have ended differently.

“Agora ou nunca!” - O imperador Guilherme II e a Primeira Guerra Mundial

Este artigo discute o papel do Imperador Guilherme II da Alemanha, e sua responsabilidade pessoal na eclosão da Primeira Guerra Mundial. A primeira parte dedica-se à representação da polêmica personalidade do Kaiser, que, já na época, foi caraterizado como “psicopata imperial” e “césar megalomânico”. Porém, ficará claro que, nas grandes crises internacionais antes de 1914, o Imperador se revelou menos belicista do que o esperado com base nessa sua imagem. Foi na Crise de Julho (1914) que a personalidade de Guilherme II impactou realmente a história mundial. Em dois momentos-chaves da Crise de Julho, a postura do Kaiser contribuiu de forma fundamental para colocar a Alemanha no caminho da confrontação armada. No dia 5 de julho, espontaneamente e em um surto de megalomania autocrática, ele sancionou a guerra austro-sérvia e, em seguida, pressionou o seu aliado austríaco a logo pegar em armas. Nessa ocasião, foi dominado por sua marcialidade, seu militarismo e seu autoritarismo, bem como pelo lado impulsivo e imprevisível de seu caráter. Quando a guerra contra a Rússia se tornou uma possibilidade real, ele ficou atemorizado e apresentou seu “plano pela paz”. Nesse segundo momento, porém, quando tinha ainda o destino de paz ou guerra em suas mãos, fracassou, e mostrou o outro lado da sua personalidade: a insegurança, a falta de coragem e liderança e a susceptibilidade a pressões e manipulações por terceiros. Rapidamente o Imperador se entregou às manipulações do seu chanceler e ao boicote austríaco de sua proposta. No final, rendeu-se ao cálculo da dinâmica das necessidades militares, defendido pelos sues generais. Conclui-se que, embora o Kaiser não quisesse a “grande guerra”, sua responsabilidade em colocar a Alemanha a caminho desse confronto foi imensa.

Mutual Optimism and War, and the Strategic Tensions of the July Crisis

AbstractIs mutual optimism a rationalist explanation for war? Countries are mutually optimistic if they have incompatible beliefs about the balance of power. Private information may fuel such beliefs, but it is unclear how rational countries could maintain incompatible beliefs if favorable information motivates a decision to fight, once countries incorporate their understanding of equilibrium strategies and later observe their enemy's decision to fight. I show that if countries have multiple reasons to fight—a favorable signal about the balance of power and a high resolve for the issue in dispute—then rational enemies can hold incompatible beliefs about the balance of power because an enemy's preference for war may not come from a favorable signal. Rational countries may even celebrate such an announcement, if it helps justify their own decision to fight. I discuss the implications of this argument for the causes of the First World War.

Nathan N. Orgill. Rumors of the Great War: The British Press and Anglo-German Relations during the July Crisis. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2020. Pp. 282. $95.00 (cloth).

Nathan N. Orgill. Rumors of the Great War: The British Press and Anglo-German Relations during the July Crisis. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2020. Pp. 282. $95.00 (cloth).

Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Cycles in U.S.

We analyze monthly time series of 57 US macroeconomic indicators (18 leading, 30 coincident, and 9 lagging) and 5 other trade/money indexes. Using novel methods, we confirm statistically significant co-movements among these time series and identify noteworthy economic events. The methods we use are Complex Hilbert Principal Component Analysis (CHPCA) and Rotational Random Shuffling (RRS). We obtain significant complex correlations among the US economic indicators with leads/lags. We then use the Hodge decomposition to obtain the hierarchical order of each time series. The Hodge potential allows us to better understand the lead/lag relationships. Using both CHPCA and Hodge decomposition approaches, we obtain a new lead/lag order of the macroeconomic indicators and perform clustering analysis for positively serially correlated positive and negative changes of the analyzed indicators. We identify collective negative co-movements around the Dot.com bubble in 2001 as well as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in October 2008. We also identify important events such as the Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 and the Oil Price Crisis in July 2008. Additionally, we demonstrate that some coincident and lagging indicators actually show leading indicator characteristics. This suggests that there is a room for existing indicators to be improved.

Decisions for Empire: Revisiting the 1882 Occupation of Egypt

Abstract The decision of Gladstone’s government to invade and occupy Egypt in 1882 remains one of the most contentious in late nineteenth-century British political and imperial history. This article examines the decision-making process in June and July 1882, revisiting Robinson and Gallagher’s influential study in the light of more recent historiographical research and previously unused sources. It looks at who made the critical decisions, what their preoccupations were, and how they were able to get Cabinet approval. Hartington and Northbrook were the two key figures, who co-operated to overturn Gladstone’s and Granville’s policy in June 1882. Yet their co-operation was momentary and they found themselves on different sides of the argument over the participation of Indian forces and international support. Although they shared a sense of Egypt’s importance to British imperial security, they each had a distinctive approach, so that the decision to occupy cannot be reduced to a conflict between Whig pragmatists and Radical idealists. The article also shows how the Alexandria riot on 11 June altered the context of decision-making by shifting the mood in the parliamentary Liberal party towards intervention. Parliament, not the press, was the crucial site of ‘public opinion’ in the Egyptian crisis in June and July 1882.

Living in the Interregnum: Existential Dilemma, Identity Crisis and Alienation in July's People

Living in the Interregnum: Existential Dilemma, Identity Crisis and Alienation in July's People

Predicting the Price of WTI Crude Oil Using ANN and Chaos

This paper mainly studied the chaotic characteristics and prediction of WTI crude oil monthly price time series from January 1980 to June 2017. Meanwhile, we analyzed whether the major shock of the financial crisis in July 2008 would break the chaotic character of the time series. In addition, when using the largest lyapunov exponent to determine chaotic characteristics, the robustness test of the largest lyapunov exponent was carried out using bootstrap method. Then, we utilized three types of prediction models (ANN+Chaos-type models, Chaos-type model and ANN-type models) to predict the price of crude oil in different months. And we found that the prediction accuracy of ANN-type model is lower than the other type models. This indicated that the accuracy of the prediction with ANN model under the model misspecification is not high because the time series of WTI crude oil price has chaotic characteristics. At last, we constructed a new predictive model, namely HWP-CHAOS model, to compare the prediction accuracy of the above three type models, and discovered the best prediction model among these models is HWP-CHAOS model.

Identity Crisis in Nadine Gordimer's July's People

This research paper is concerned with exploring and analysing the crisis of identity in the South African society of apartheid during a transitional phase of a violent political change. Also, it exposes the social and political dichotomies inherent in the apartheid society of South Africa. The paper therefore seeks to unveil both the possibilities and obstacles to the future of South Africa's democracy. It analyses the mistakes of the past as well as the profound influence of the past in shaping the present. It focuses on racial tension, violence brought by the transfer of power to blacks and the reversal of roles and responsibilities. It further examines the contradictions of the present as a consequence of the repition of the binaries of the past that still exist in the present. Throughout July's People, Gordimer depicts a situation of political impasse between the overthrow of the previous white supremacist regime and the emergence of black majority rule. Gordimer uses uncertainties, anxieties, contradictions and ambiguities that characterize the situation to foreground her views on racial unity incumbent upon a redefinition of identities within the new social and political forces. While she acknowledges the inevitability of the end of white rule, she is doubtful of the future in terms of what it holds for and indeed has to offer different races as well as their roles and responsibilities in a new emerging complex society