Crisis Behavior Research Articles

Multivariate Decision Tree-Oriented Early Warning Method for College Students’ Psychological Crisis Behavior

To prevent the occurrence of psychological crisis behavior and help college students grow from the crisis is not only an important issue related to college students’ mental health, but also a very necessary and urgent practical issue related to college students’ family happiness, college talent training, and social harmony and stability. Therefore, a multivariable decision tree-oriented early warning method for college students’ psychological crisis behavior is proposed. Using the laser beam emitted by the sensor as a reference standard, the psychological crisis behavior data is extracted, converted into different formats, divided into linear regions, and used to build a multivariate decision tree model. The model is used as the judgment processing target, and the judgment equation of mental health status data is established. The status data is divided into different processing groups as the processing object, calculate the maximum state value of the state data in the two data combinations to obtain the optimal early warning result, and finally realize the early warning of psychological crisis behavior. The experimental results show that the final success rate of early warning obtained by this method is high, which can improve the efficiency of early warning; the number of missing data sets was the least, and most of the subjects’ psychological risk tolerance was at the medium level.

Statement of Retraction: Analysis and Research of Psychological Crisis Behavior Model Based on Improved Apriori Algorithm

Statement of Retraction: Analysis and Research of Psychological Crisis Behavior Model Based on Improved Apriori Algorithm

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Analysis and Research of Psychological Crisis Behavior Model Based on Improved Apriori Algorithm

We, the Editors and Publisher of International Journal of Human Computer Interaction, have retracted the following article: Yan, Y. (2024). Analysis and Research of Psychological Crisis Behavior Model Based on Improved Apriori Algorithm. International Journal of Human–Computer Interaction, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2024.2320981 Following publication, significant concerns have been raised regarding discrepancies between the data reported in the article and the underlying dataset that is stated as having been used for the research. There are additional concerns regarding Figure 2, Figure 5 and Figure 6; the description of these in the body of the article does not correlate with the figure captions. Despite numerous attempts to contact the author, they have not responded to requests for an explanation. As the editorial team no longer have confidence in the reported conclusions and validity of the article, the decision has been made to retract the article. We have been informed in our decision-making by our editorial policies and the COPE guidelines. The retracted article will remain online to maintain the scholarly record, but it will be digitally watermarked on each page as ‘Retracted’.

Introducing ICBe: an event extraction dataset from narratives about international crises

Abstract How do international crises unfold? We conceptualize international relations as a strategic chess game between adversaries and develop a systematic way to measure pieces, moves, and gambits accurately and consistently over a hundred years of history. We introduce a new ontology and dataset of international events called ICBe based on a very high-quality corpus of narratives from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. We demonstrate that ICBe has higher coverage, recall, and precision than existing state of the art datasets and conduct two detailed case studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) and the Crimea-Donbas Crisis (2014). We further introduce two new event visualizations (event iconography and crisis maps), an automated benchmark for measuring event recall using natural language processing (synthetic narratives), and an ontology reconstruction task for objectively measuring event precision. We make the data, supplementary appendix, replication material, and visualizations of every historical episode available at a companion website crisisevents.org.

Ambiguous calls: Public preferences for law enforcement responses to people in crisis

AimLaw enforcement officers are tasked with responding to various types of calls for service in the community, including individuals in crisis. Thus, the current study examines public perceptions regarding crisis related behaviors and preferred police responses. MethodsThe current study used experimentally designed case vignettes from an online opt-in survey to tap into crisis-related behaviors (drunkenly passed out, injecting a substance, walking around talking to oneself, and standing on the edge of bridge). The study examined whether respondents (n = 880) viewed the behavior as a crime and how they wanted law enforcement to respond, including arrest, take to treatment, release to family or friend, and ignore and do nothing. ResultsBeing drunkenly passed out, injecting a substance, and standing on the edge of a bridge were more likely to be considered a crime relative to walking around talking to themselves. Generally, respondents wanted law enforcement to do something rather than nothing. However, the preferred outcome varied by situation. ConclusionFindings have recommendations regarding the criminalization of mental health and education for the public on crisis behaviors linked to locally driven resources and supports.

Automated Motive Scoring and International Crisis Behavior

Abstract Although implicit motives are well established, coding for implicit motives has been a time-consuming and difficult manual process. This study (i) evaluates automated motive coding schemes for Need for Achievement, Need for Affiliation, and Need for Power, (ii) assesses the relationship between these three motives and crisis initiation, and (iii) assesses the explanatory power of other psychological variables for crisis behavior. The results establish the convergent validity of the Need for Achievement and Need for Power coding schemes with hand coding and support findings of a significant relationship between Need for Power and crisis behavior. A unit increase in Need for Power doubles the probability that a leader will initiate a crisis. Even stronger models were obtained by including other previously studied psychological variables. The scope of the dataset (154 leaders across a diverse set of 93 countries) lends weight to the findings and provides many opportunities for additional research.

Propagating a permanent war economy? U.S. FDI in warring host countries

PurposeConventional wisdom suggests that war in the host country makes it unattractive for foreign firms to invest. To see if this is true for US firms on the aggregate, this paper aims to examine the veracity of a “permanent war economy” hypothesis, that foreign direct investment (FDI) may, in fact, increase in the host country not despite, but because of, war, i.e. one that lends credence to the idea that, in the USA, “defense [has] become one of constant preparation for future wars and foreign interventions rather than an exercise in response to one-off threats.”Design/methodology/approachThe authors test the hypotheses using Generalized Method of Moments estimation, with Heckman Selection, on US FDI data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and war data from the Correlates of War2 Project, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program/International Peace Research Institute data set, the International Crisis Behavior Project and the Center for Systemic Peace Major Episodes of Political Violence data set. The final sample consists of 351 country-year observations in 55 host countries from 1982 to 2006.FindingsThe findings indicate that overall US FDI in a host country in a given year decreases if the host country is engaged in wars with multiple countries and if the US Government is involved in the war. Most notably, the results show that US involvement in multiple host country wars is actually correlated with increased US FDI into the host country, providing empirical support for the “permanent war economy” hypothesis.Originality/valueWhile other studies have focused on war and FDI, the authors have sought to show the impact of the involvement of arguably the most influential country, i.e. the USA, in the sovereign matters of a focal host country. By studying FDI from the USA as a function of US involvement in wars overseas, over the years with the greatest use of private military companies by the USA and the largest portion of global FDI accounted for by the USA, this work motivates a research agenda on home-host-"other” relations in the context of war and FDI, with the “other” being the supranational “elephant in the room.”

Strategy creation behaviour and “last gasp” digitalization as predictors of sales performance and cash flow

PurposeAlthough recent literature has examined diverse measures adopted by SMEs to navigate the COVID-19 turbulence, there is a shortage of evidence on how crisis-time strategy creation behaviour and digitalization activities increase (1) sales and (2) cash flow. Thus, predicated on a novel strategy creation perspective, this inquiry aims to investigate the crisis behaviour, sales and cash flow performance of 528 SMEs in Morocco.Design/methodology/approachNovel links between (1) aggregate wage cuts, (2) variable operating hours, (3) deferred payment to suppliers, (4) deferred payment to tax authorities and (5) sales performance are developed and tested. A further link between sales performance and cash flow is also examined and the analysis is conducted using a non-linear structural equation modelling technique.FindingsWhile there is a significant association between strategy creation behaviours and sales performance, only variable operating hours have a positive effect. Also, sales performance increases cash flow and this relationship is substantially strengthened by e-commerce digitalization and innovation.Originality/valueTheoretically, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first inquiries to espouse the strategy creation view to explain SMEs' crisis-time behaviour and digitalization. For practical purposes, to supplement Moroccan SMEs' propensity to seek tax deferrals, it is argued that debt and equity support measures are also needed to boost sales performance and cash flow.

Risk acceptance and offensive war: The case of Russia under the Putin regime

ABSTRACT Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine in early 2022 was seemingly driven by an unprecedented willingness to accept risks for the Russian regime, state, and society. Developing a generalizable framework, this article analyzes the development of Russian risk acceptance in offensive war initiation. Drawing on policy documents, speeches, expert literature, and various interviews with Russian, Ukrainian, and Western policymakers, the article finds that risk acceptance has continuously risen since the mid-2000s, although the 2022 invasion still evinces some risk aversion. These results are robust when accounting for miscalculation and caution against attributing the 2022 invasion solely to short-term and leader-centric factors. They also provide cues for understanding the crisis behavior of Russia and other major powers, corroborate prospect theory models on cognitive biases in elite decision-making, and indicate the need to revise the theoretical assumption that risk acceptance is an empirically rare and drastic aberration from a risk-neutral or risk-averse normality.

Financial Crises and Capital Structure Decisions: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Markets

ABSTRACT This study analyzes emerging market firms’ capital structure decisions. We select the reference as 2007–2008 financial crisis and study the temporal behavior. We investigate if EM firms differ in decisions of issuing debt and equity and if their responses to the global financial crisis are explicable with the existing theories. Our findings suggest that the crisis behavior of EM firms is not fully conformable with the extant theories. Their debt and equity reversals are antithetical, that is in the reverse direction from the last extreme point, driving a pattern to stagger between substantial debt issues followed by equity expansions.

Infeasible Punishment and Noneffective Threats: Political Feasibility of Nuclear Punishment and Policy Choices after Direct Nuclear Deterrence Failure

Direct nuclear deterrence should provide significant stability considering the defender's capability to inflict enormous costs on the challenger and its high level of resolve to protect its territory and people. In the past, however, nuclear powers' deterrence strategy to prevent adversaries from escalating a crisis has failed. We argue that to manage deterrence failure crises, nuclear weapons would not matter much until the crisis actors overcome the inherent political difficulties in following through on the threat of nuclear punishment. If a defender passes this bar, then it would escalate the crisis after the deterrence failure. Conversely, if the challenger possesses high political feasibility to follow through on a threat of nuclear use, then the crisis will be terminated less violently as most defenders will view nuclear escalation as more likely and decide to compromise. We identify a total of 156 cases of direct deterrence failure after 1947 from the International Crisis Behavior Data data set. Then, using ordered logistic regression analysis, we find evidence for this feasibility of punishment hypothesis.

Less speed more haste: The effect of crisis response speed and information strategy on the consumer−brand relationship

AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between firm crisis behavior and the resulting consumer–brand relationship (CBR) response. Drawing from theoretical traditions in brand transgressions, service failure, and crisis communications, we use longitudinal survey data combined with archival social media data to empirically test the effect of crisis response speed and crisis information strategy on the short‐term consumer crisis response evaluations (1 month after crisis response), and the long‐term CBR (1 year after crisis response). Results show that, contrary to intuitive expectations, a faster firm response is not always better, as a slower response was found to result in higher crisis response evaluations. We also show that this effect depends on the consistency of the communication strategy with the first active response. Specifically, when a firm prioritizes safety information (instructing strategy), a faster response is better. Whereas, when the firm prioritizes well‐being information (adjusting strategy), a slower response is better. We argue the counterintuitive finding that a slower response is better implies that reacting too quickly may signal rashness and unpreparedness to the customer, leading to more negative evaluations. We term this distinction the difference between being responsive (fast but considered) and reactive (faster but rash).

The Domestic Sources of International Reputation

Existing research finds that leaders develop international reputations based on their past behavior on the international stage. We argue that leaders’ domestic choices can also influence their international reputations, perhaps as much as their past foreign policy decisions do. Using formal theory and intuitive argumentation, we develop an overarching framework to predict how much any domestic choice will affect a leader’s international reputation. We theorize that certain domestic choices can inform expectations about future international crisis behavior based on the extent to which (1) the costs at stake are similar to those of an international crisis and (2) the domestic issue is salient relative to foreign policy. We use conjoint experiments and other evidence to show that many domestic choices have significant international reputational effects. There is some evidence that the reputational effect of certain domestic choices may equal that of fighting in a previous international crisis.

Time pressures under international crises reconsidered: Integrating real and experimental time

This study discusses the relationship between the time pressure faced by policymakers when an international military-security crisis breaks out and the consequences of the crisis. If a policy is decided too quickly, decision-makers do not have the ability to consider enough alternatives and information, which lowers the chances of averting a crisis. Moreover, if too much time is taken in deliberating, an international crisis may heat up and the chance to potentially come up with an optimal policy at the right time may be missed. The article takes a mixed methods approach using quantitative data and three case studies. The International Crisis Behavior (ICB, version 13) dataset was used to identify the time spent in making policy decisions to respond to an international crisis and the consequences of the crisis, for the period 1918–2013. Also, three actual international crises were analyzed: Russia's annexation of Crimea and Donbas, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Korean War. The quantitative results and the case analyses indicate that a third alternative, a medium time span, allows for careful deliberation and sufficient information gathering to occur, and decision-makers may thereby avoid an international crisis.

Towards Building a Visual Behaviour Analysis Pipeline for Suicide Detection and Prevention.

Understanding human behaviours through video analysis has seen significant research progress in recent years with the advancement of deep learning. This topic is of great importance to the next generation of intelligent visual surveillance systems which are capable of real-time detection and analysis of human behaviours. One important application is to automatically monitor and detect individuals who are in crisis at suicide hotspots to facilitate early intervention and prevention. However, there is still a significant gap between research in human action recognition and visual video processing in general, and their application to monitor hotspots for suicide prevention. While complex backgrounds, non-rigid movements of pedestrians and limitations of surveillance cameras and multi-task requirements for a surveillance system all pose challenges to the development of such systems, a further challenge is the detection of crisis behaviours before a suicide attempt is made, and there is a paucity of datasets in this area due to privacy and confidentiality issues. Most relevant research only applies to detecting suicides such as hangings or jumps from bridges, providing no potential for early prevention. In this research, these problems are addressed by proposing a new modular design for an intelligent visual processing pipeline that is capable of pedestrian detection, tracking, pose estimation and recognition of both normal actions and high risk behavioural cues that are important indicators of a suicide attempt. Specifically, based on the key finding that human body gestures can be used for the detection of social signals that potentially precede a suicide attempt, a new 2D skeleton-based action recognition algorithm is proposed. By using a two-branch network that takes advantage of three types of skeleton-based features extracted from a sequence of frames and a stacked LSTM structure, the model predicts the action label at each time step. It achieved good performance on both the public dataset JHMDB and a smaller private CCTV footage collection on action recognition. Moreover, a logical layer, which uses knowledge from a human coding study to recognise pre-suicide behaviour indicators, has been built on top of the action recognition module to compensate for the small dataset size. It enables complex behaviour patterns to be recognised even from smaller datasets. The whole pipeline has been tested in a real-world application of suicide prevention using simulated footage from a surveillance system installed at a suicide hotspot, and preliminary results confirm its effectiveness at capturing crisis behaviour indicators for early detection and prevention of suicide.

Introduction to the special section on suicide and crisis management in clinical practice: Theoretical and practical integration.

Clinical Impact Statement Question: How can knowledge from various theoretical models and clinical settings advance the practical application and scientific study for the assessment and management of crisis behavior? Findings: Clinical applications and the scientific study of standardized methods of crisis and suicide management can be advanced through a variety of theoretical models and within multiple clinical settings. Meaning: Innovation and creativity in the practical application and scientific investigation of standardized methods of suicide and crisis management can best be improved through theoretical frameworks that allow for the systematic testing of hypotheses in support of psychology as a cumulative science. Next Steps: The contributions to this special section demonstrate the use of theoretical models to further the scientific study of evidence-based methods in crisis management. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Crisis behaviors as drivers of value co-creation transformation

Purpose The paper aims to conceptualize how behavioral shifts in times of crisis drive the transformation of value co-creation. Design/methodology/approach Referencing two empirical contexts, the paper explores how digital service platforms facilitate changes in actors’ mental models and institutional arrangements (legal, social, technological) that drive transformation of value co-creation in service ecosystems. Findings The proposed conceptual framework contributes to existing research by identifying micro-level changes in actors’ mental models and macro-level changes in institutional arrangements enabled by digital service platforms in service ecosystems. In particular, the framework identifies motivation, agility and resistance as moderators of behavioral shifts in times of crisis. This account offers a finer-grained theorization of the moderating factors and underlying mechanisms of service ecosystem transformation but does not extend to the ensuing “new normal.” Practical implications The proposed framework indicates how digital platforms support shifts in actors’ behavior and contribute to the transformation of value co-creation. While the enablers are situation-specific and may therefore vary according to the prevailing conditions, the actor-related concepts advanced here seem likely to remain relevant when analyzing the transformation of value co-creation in other crisis situations. Originality/value The new conceptual framework advanced here clarifies how behavioral shifts during a crisis drive the transformation of value co-creation and suggests directions for future research.

Aerodynamics of a Train and Flat Closed-Box Bridge System with Train Model Mounted on the Upstream Track

The aerodynamic features of a train and flat closed-box bridge system may be highly sensitive to train-bridge aero interactions. For the generally utilized railway bridge-deck with two tracks (the upstream and downstream ones), the aero interactions above are occupied-track-dependent. The present paper thus aims to reveal the aero interactions stated above via a series of wind tunnel tests. The results showed that the aero interactions of the present train-bridge system display four typical behaviors, namely, the underbody flow restraining effect, bridge deck shielding effect, flow transition promoting effect, and the flow separation intensifying effect. The above four aero interactions result in obvious reductions in the aerodynamic forces of the train in wind angle of attack α of [−4°, 12°] and in the static stall angle of the bridge-deck, and leads to sensible increases in the absolute values of the bridge aerodynamic forces in α of [−4°, 12°]. Upon comparing the results with the same train and bridge system but with the train model mounted on the downstream track, the quasi-Reynolds number effect was non-detectable when the train model was moved to the upstream track. Thus, no drag crisis and other saltatory aerodynamic behaviors were observed in the present study in α of [0°, 12°].

PERSPECTIVES OF SMALL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY CAUSED BY COVID PANDEMICS

A market economic system based on the means of production is characterized by fundamental uncertainty. The differences between the fundamental uncertainties and the risks lie in the fact that it is impossible to empirically measure the level and dynamics of future threats. A correct understanding of the uncertainty is essential for the study and analysis of the crisis. Under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, world economy found itself in a new global crisis, which had a significant impact on the rise of economic and social uncertainty, the degree of which is so high that it is impossible to predict the model of the economic and social development due to the current pandemic. The current economic crisis is characterized not only by global losses but also by the limited sources of compensation. According to scientists (Adžić & Al-Mansour, 2021) a crisis of this magnitude is the most unprecedented economic event of the last century. The COVID-19 world pandemic crisis has limited a traditional opportunities for small business, accordingly has emerged a new one. The most difficult problem was created in the value chain. Small business is a heavily dependent on consumers and suppliers behaviour, therefore, changes in the value chain have a significant impact on all of its participants. The closure of national borders has led to the disruption of the logistics network; And after the reduction of the stocks, it threatens to almost all participants in this network. It is important to consider the uncertainties and risks that are involved while studying small business crisis behavior. As a result even the most trained institutions are approaching disaster. After a pandemic, the universe will find itself in a larger, no less turbulent zone. Prior to the crisis, cost was the most important criterion while choosing a supply chain that had led to single suppliers and small stocks for small businesses. As it seems during the pandemic, this choice turned out to be one of the most important causes of the small business crisis. At the same time, dependence on one supplier has undergone a transformation into the need to diversify stocks, that has led to an increase in funding sources and which has led to the financial instability of a small company. These examples of the correlation between environmental and small business threats have illustrated the need for a global vision in order to adapt anti-crisis behavior model .A global vision is certainly needed. There is no single, optimal choice for overcoming uncertainty, however, the importance of the multivariate strategies is an important. Small firms found themselves unprepared for such approaches, leading to a high level of uncertainty. As well as, when a small business is in the early stages of its life cycle, the lack of experience limits its choice, and the lack of resources prevents it from choosing an effective strategy, that has exacerbated the problems of the small firms.

Sport Consumption Intentions during a Crisis: The COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic brought a disruption to daily life and to the sport industry not seen before by generations of consumers. The purpose of the present study was to examine the impact of three external factors (i.e., perceived State/County opening phase status, work status and sheltering status) along with consumers’ past spectating behavior on their intentions to attend live sport events in the near future. In this examination, we controlled for COVID-19-related beliefs, as well as for consumers’ emotional states (i.e., scared, optimistic). Data were collected from 382 Amazon Mechanical Turk respondents. The findings revealed how external factors happening due to a crisis (i.e., pandemic) and past spectating behavior influence consumers’ intentions to attend live sport events. Furthermore, beliefs and emotions related to the threat of COVID-19 sport spectators’ intentions to go to live sport events in the COVID-19 era.