Crisis Behavior Research Articles

The Unforeseen Consequences of Extended Deterrence: Moral Hazard in a Nuclear Client State

Do “nuclear umbrellas” create a moral hazard that can increase the risk of war? In this article, we investigate whether situations of extended deterrence in which a nuclear patron makes a defensive commitment to a nonnuclear client state can inadvertently increase the likelihood that a client will initiate a crisis with another state. Using data on the crisis behavior of states from 1950 to 2000, we estimate the impact of a nuclear umbrella on various crisis outcomes, including the initiation and escalation of militarized conflict. Interestingly, we find no evidence that such commitments increase the risk of war or even two-sided violence at lower levels. However, consistent with both the moral hazard logic and bargaining theories of war, we show that this appears to be because potential target states offer increased policy concessions to client states to avoid costly fighting. Thus, the link between nuclear umbrellas and moral hazard appears to be real, but it is reflected in the division of benefits rather than a greater likelihood of war. The results have important policy implications as the US contemplates extending its nuclear umbrella.

China's crisis behavior: political survival and foreign policy after the Cold War

China's crisis behavior: political survival and foreign policy after the Cold War

Towards a Grid for Characterizing and Evaluating Crisis Management Serious Games

Over the last few decades, interest has grown in the use of serious games (SG) and their assessment in almost every sector. A privileged application domain of SG is crisis management (CM) in which these tools improve crisis behavior and/or management in a safe environment while reducing training costs. However, it is difficult to characterize and evaluate such specific SG. This article proposes a comprehensive grid defining features for description, analysis and evaluation of Crisis Management Serious Games (CMSG). First of all, the authors introduce SG, CM as well as evaluation and assessment concepts, and discuss their particular challenges by highlighting the need of using assessment and evaluation techniques to support learning and/or training. Then, the authors present, classify and compare the most relevant techniques dedicated to address this need by encompassing the state of the art of learners' assessment and evaluation approaches used in CMSG. Finally, this article presents in detail the proposed grid and discusses the major findings and contributions.

The Global Crisis, Economics and Economic Behavior: Uncertainty, Expectations and Human Behavior Matters?

The paper analyzes the current discussions on the state of economics with special focus on the interrelationships between key ideas of economic theories and real actions of economic policy in the course of the global economic crisis. The global economic crisis showed the limited ability of mainstream in economics to service the economic practice, and, therefore, the attention of researchers and economic policy-makers was drawn again to some alternative views in economics.

Financial Safety Nets: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The following sections are included:IntroductionA Look at Crisis and Postcrisis Behavior of Credit Spreads in the U.S.A Look at Crisis and Postcrisis Behavior of Credit Spreads in the EUThe Idea of a “Stealth Bailout”Missing Elements in Postcrisis Financial ReformReferences

Book review: China’s Crisis Behavior: Political Survival and Foreign Policy After the Cold War

Book review: China’s Crisis Behavior: Political Survival and Foreign Policy After the Cold War

Economic Crisis and Investor Behaviour

This study investigates the effects of crises on domestic and foreign investors’ behaviours by utilizing a nonlinear approach. Considering the nonlinearity inherent in many financial variables, this study proposes an appropriate econometric modelling for analysing the investors’ behaviour, particularly during turbulent times. Specifically, STAR-STGARCH family models and generalized impulse response function analysis (GIRF) are employed to understand the different reactions of foreign and domestic investors at the Malaysian Stock Exchange market during the 1997 Asian crisis. The results of the model and the GIRF analysis have shown that foreign investors exhibited a herding behavior during the crisis and responded the shock more quickly than the domestic investors. When the same analysis is applied to understand the effects of the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis in the Malaysian market, the behaviors of foreign and domestic investors are found to be very similar.

Predicting Equity Crises, Critical Exponents, and Earthquakes - II

We present further encouraging evidence for the Critical Exponent Earthquake Crisis (CEEC) Model that gives the probabilities of equity crises one year in advance. The CEEC model uses suitable precursor signals and is agnostic regarding dynamical origins of crises. The precursors accumulate in time between crises, like precursors to some earthquakes. The model uses a sophisticated noise filter to separate out crisis signals. The main metric is the anomalous exponent of an equity series describing the difference of the data variance scaling exponent from the Brownian variance scaling exponent of 1. No extra non-equity variables are used. The CEEC Model results for predicting crises are not perfect, but are much better than chance, including out-of-sample tests. The details here supplement our previous CEEC crisis paper (2013). In another paper (2016) we give details showing that various markets - not just equities - that are already in crisis are on the average described by a critical exponent of the nonlinear-diffusion Reggeon Field Theory (RFT), calculated in 1974, with no free parameters. Nonlinear diffusion naturally extends Brownian motion. Rich/cheap crisis behavior is suggested as a paradigm. This supplements our previous CEEC crisis paper (2013). The CEEC Model crisis predictions use the same scaling form described by the anomalous exponent as does the RFT. This consistency for crisis predictions and crisis behavior is significant.

Describing Crises with a Critical Exponent of the Reggeon Field Theory

We present evidence that markets in crisis can be described by a critical exponent of the nonlinear-diffusion Reggeon Field Theory, calculated 40 years ago, with no free parameters, translated to finance. We propose this as a benchmark for average crisis behavior, to which individual crises can be rich or cheap. In another paper we present a quantitative model for the probability of equity crises in advance. An earlier paper contained a summary.

Deadly Triangles: The Implications of Regional Competition on Interactions in Asymmetric Dyads

Why do minor powers ever resist the demands of major powers? Although recent work has begun to provide answers to this question, we argue that research has missed a vital piece of bargaining dynamics in dyadic research: third-party influence. Using spatial modeling techniques with the Militarized Interstate Dispute and International Crisis Behavior datasets, we improve upon previous models of asymmetric conflict by showing that the presence of a neighboring rival of a minor power, and the relationship that rival has with a major power, conditions the likelihood that weak actors choose to fight the strong. The recent examples of Pakistan and Iraq, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, serve as ideal types in which minor powers are respectively less and more likely to resist the demands of major powers. We find quantitative support that regional rivalries can act as both constrainers and enablers for minor powers when bargaining with major powers.

The importance of conflict characteristics for the diffusion of international mediation

This article argues that similar conflict characteristics form links between crises, which signal the relevant actors – that is, the belligerents and the potential mediator(s) – that a comparable approach in terms of third-party mediation could be suitable across these disputes – even if the relevant parties are not the same. Specifically, demand (antagonists) and supply-side actors (mediators) are likely to employ the heuristic of learning from and emulating the mediation behavior in similar crises. The empirical analysis, using data from the International Crisis Behavior project, shows that comparable patterns in violence, arguably the most visible and salient conflict characteristic, are associated with mediation traveling across crises; other dispute characteristics incorporated into spatial lags are not, however. Hence, particularly as domestic/unit-level (monadic) influences are controlled for, the effect of common exposure is taken into account, and different estimation strategies are used, the results emphasize that there is a genuine diffusion process via common levels of violence in the context of international mediation.

Did Georgian Voters Desire Military Escalation in 2008? Experiments and Observations

In a foreign policy crisis between a strong and weak state, do citizens of the weaker party punish or reward a leader that escalates the crisis? Strong evidence suggests that there were electoral incentives for Georgian escalation in its August 2008 war with Russia. This article combines data from survey experiments, conducted on Georgian voters just weeks prior to the August 2008 war, with open-ended survey response questions from a survey fielded just weeks after the war. Respondents evaluated their leader’s crisis behavior in the aftermath of a real war differently than the evidence from pre-war survey experiments would have suggested. The divergence in findings is demonstrated by providing evidence of three empirical phenomena: a “Rally ’Round the Flag” effect, a “Fog of War” effect, and systematic differences in evaluations of leader performance depending on respondents’ proximity to actual violence.

Power and Risk in Foreign Policy: Understanding China's Crisis Behavior

Political Science QuarterlyVolume 130, Issue 4 p. 701-733 Article Power and Risk in Foreign Policy: Understanding China's Crisis Behavior Kai He, Kai HeSearch for more papers by this author Kai He, Kai HeSearch for more papers by this author First published: 27 December 2015 https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12396Citations: 2Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume130, Issue4Winter 2015Pages 701-733 RelatedInformation

MOBILE EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES IN THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CRISIS AND THE PSYCHOSOCIAL PARADIGM

ABSTRACT The objective was to know the perception and interventions of basic support teams of the mobile emergency medical service in a situation of psychic crisis. This was a qualitative and descriptive research study conducted in the state of Santa Catarina, with four professional teams of the Basic Support Units in Mobile and Emergency Service. The data were collected from April to June of 2011, through semi-structured interviews. Collective Subject Discourse was used to organize and analyze data and to discuss the Psychosocial Paradigm. From the results, three discourses emerged with the main ideas: crisis behavior disorder and psychological instability; hallucinations and aggressiveness; intervention with physical or pharmacological restraint and referral. It is concluded that the concept of crisis is linked by professionals to the positivism of psychiatry, and pre-hospital care follows protocol measures in attending the person in mental crisis, far from the principles determined by the psychosocial paradigm.

Brief Report: Understanding Crisis Behaviors in Hospitalized Psychiatric Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder—Iceberg Assessment Interview

Children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are at risk for emotional dysregulation and behavior problems that can escalate to levels requiring psychiatric hospitalization. Evaluating the etiology of such behaviors can be challenging for health care providers, as individuals with ASD can have difficulty self-reporting concerns. This brief report introduces the Iceberg Assessment Interview (IAI), a tool to organize and elucidate the assessment of issues potentially underlying problem behaviors. A summary of IAIs from a chart review of patients ages 5-18 with ASD (n = 23) admitted to a specialized psychiatric hospital unit illustrates the clinical utility of this tool. Summarized IAI data includes presenting crisis behaviors, caregiver-perceived environmental conditions, and underlying psychosocial and medical problems.

Crisis behavior: An exploration of theories in concert.

How might prominent existing communication theory better explain behavior in a crisis context, when considered in concert with one another? This theoretical work highlights the insight to be gained using Situational Crisis Communication Theory and Bandura's notions of self-efficacy to heighten the explanatory power of the Theory of Planned Behavior as applied to communication during times of crisis. Situational Crisis Communication Theory better explains how past experience with crisis influences the attitudes and social norms of crisis behavior, while Bandura's notion of self-efficacy speaks more directly to the availability of resources as contributing factors to perceived behavioral control in a crisis situation. As such, the incorporation of these well-developed notions into the broader framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior affords greater understanding of the relationship between communication and behavior during a crisis. Further exploration of this theoretical relationship is warranted.

청소년 가정환경요인이 폭력행동과 자살생각에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract This study examined the effects of the youth home environment on violent behavior and suicidal thoughts. The survey was conducted from March 5, 2014 to July 02 on a juvenile male and female target group of 430 people subjects. Frequency analysis, factor analysis, reliability analysis, and multiple regression analysis were conducted usingSPSS Win 18.0 with verification at the 5% significant level. The results of the study were as follows: First, the support of the father had a negative influence on violent behavior. Second, the support of both the father and mother,communication with the father and mother, and the mother’s parenting attitude have a negative influence on suicidal thoughts. Third, the youth’s violent behavior has a positive influence on the suicidal thoughts. This study provides essential data for making polices to resolve the youth crisis behaviors. Key Words : Communication, Democratic parenting attitudes, Family support, Suicidal behavior, Violent behavior * Corresponding Author : Deok-Jo Kim(Dongbang Culture Graduate Univ.) Tel: +82-10-3569-3507 email: ilsong1018@naver.comReceived September 19, 2014 Revised(1st October 21, 2014, 2nd November 3, 2014, 3rd November 18, 2014, 4th December 1, 2014) Accepted January 8, 2015

Economic crisis and suicidal behaviour: the role of unemployment, sex and age in Spain

Background Although suicide rates have increased in some European countries in relation to the current economic crisis and austerity policies, that trend has not been observed in Spain. Our study examines the impact of the economic crisis on suicide attempts, the previously neglected endpoint of the suicidal process, and its relation to unemployment, age and sex. Methods The study was carried out in Andalusia, the most populated region of Spain, and which has a high level of unemployment. …

The spatial contagion of international mediation

If conflicts cluster in space, does this also apply to international mediation? In light of the spatial dependency of armed conflicts, this paper develops a theoretical framework based on the mechanisms of norm diffusion for why we may also observe international mediation contagion in certain regions. Specifically, the author derives the hypothesis that mediation could diffuse across those disputes that are closely linked to each other geographically. The empirical analysis of this argument employs data from the International Crisis Behavior project, which covers international crises and mediation onsets between 1918 and 2007. The results show that mediation does indeed cluster in space, while the findings become even stronger when taking into account more recent crises only. The article concludes that knowledge about the spatial contagion of international mediation is likely to be of great interest to policy-makers and scholars alike.

No table necessary? Foreign policy crisis management techniques in non-state actor-triggered crises

This article examines how states manage foreign policy crises that are triggered by non-state actors. This research argues that crises triggered by non-state actors are particularly prone to informational and commitment problems, as well as audience costs. As a consequence, a state experiencing a non-state-triggered crisis will be more likely to adopt violent crisis management techniques and less likely to seek a negotiated solution. This assertion is tested using data from the International Crisis Behavior project. The findings suggest that these crises are indeed more prone to violent crisis management techniques when compared with crises triggered by other states. The implications of these findings for both our understanding of crisis decision-making and the study of non-state actors in international relations are discussed.