Crisis Behavior Research Articles

US Crisis and Stock Market Behaviour of the US, Europe and Emerging Markets: An Evidence from Vector Autoregression Approach

US Crisis and Stock Market Behaviour of the US, Europe and Emerging Markets: An Evidence from Vector Autoregression Approach

Managing Borderline Personality Disorder on General Psychiatric Units

Patients with Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) are at high risk of suicide and are frequently hospitalized in the acute setting of emotional crisis, non-suicidal self-injury, and suicidal behaviors. Historically, patients with BPD have borne tremendous stigma and have tended to overwhelm providers and care systems. The reconceptualization of the pathophysiology and development of BPD in the context of a rapidly changing health care environment warrants examination of relevant psychotherapeutic and treatment principles. Through a case discussion, this article highlights several factors relevant to acute inpatient hospitalization of patients with BPD in an academic training environment in an effort to identify both the challenges and helpful treatment philosophies and practices to advance patient care and promote recovery.

Revisiting the democratic peace practice: Interstate violence in multi-actor crises, 1918–2005

This article addresses democratic peace practices in a multi-actor arena. It introduces a typology of international crises and spells out hypotheses on patterns of interstate violence in situations with state adversaries alone compared with those with states and non-state actors (NSAs). The findings on 447 International Crisis Behavior (ICB) crises, from 1918 to 2005, show that about half of the cases were multi-actor in type, both within and outside the democratic zone. The democratic peace assertions were supported in crises with states alone, shuttered but still persisted in multi-actor cases with ethnic NSAs, and reversed in multi-actor confrontations with non-ethnic NSAs. These findings make actor diversity a challenging theoretical refinement for democratic peace research on crisis and war.

Hazard rate determinants of efficient and successful crisis management: An event history analysis of foreign policy crises, 1918-2007

How and why do some foreign policy crises end successfully and efficiently, but others do not? Do democracies deal better than non-democracies with foreign policy crises? Focusing on both the outcome and the duration of foreign policy crises, this article employs event history (survival) analysis to model and test three models of foreign policy crisis derived from realist, liberal, and constructivist theories and the level-of-analysis framework. The dataset in this article is drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Project, 1918–2007. The analysis indicates that democracies are more likely to solve a foreign policy crisis successfully and efficiently than non-democracies. While the involvement of international organization during a crisis has a negative effect on a state’s goal of ‘winning’ a crisis more quickly, the increasing power of a rival also hinders and prolongs the achievement of success in a crisis. Finally, the more violence a state uses during a crisis, the more difficult it is for this state to solve the crisis in a timely manner.

Wandering Through Crisis and Everyday Organizing; Revealing the Subjective Nature of Interpretive, Temporal and Organizational Boundaries

The results of a 6‐year action research study on developing crisis management preparedness in Swedish municipalities reveal strong connections rather than sharp distinctions between crisis and non‐crisis on interpretive, temporal and organizational dimensions. Confusion and debate about what is labelled as a crisis, when everyday ends and crisis begins, and who and who are not involved, may illuminate different views on what the scale, scope and inherent complexity of ‘our’ system is in crisis and in non‐crisis. Crises are not only a brutal audit for the practitioners involved, but also for the scientific theories that explain crisis behaviour. Current definitions of crisis understate the subjective nature of interpretations of crisis and organizing. To better understand the muddiness of organizing, crisis management researchers might aim for portraying more feed‐forward messiness in crisis study descriptions and applying less hindsight bias in their analyses. Such images could help practitioners realize that organizing is more complex and less controllable than currently might be pictured and assumed. A deeper exploration of concepts like duality, competing values and complex adaptive systems could serve both practitioners and researchers.

Mindfulness and Money Management: The post-crisis Behavior of Financial Advisors

We conducted, to our knowledge, the first empirical study of mindfulness with respect to financial advisors and their post 2008 financial crisis behavior. Our hypotheses were derived from semi-stru...

Crisis económica mundial: Elementos para una crítica de los paradigmas teóricos e ideológicos que sustentan la propuesta neoliberal

La crisis económica mundial empieza en 2007, cuando estalla la burbuja inmobiliaria en Estados Unidos. Ese es el detonante que pone en marcha un proceso acumulativo, de creciente complejidad, que se extiende por ya casi cinco años, sin salida a la vista. La crisis se comporta como al modo de un organismo mutante: evoluciona y asume forma nuevas, de un modo tal como si quisiera burlar las respuestas de política a través de las cuales se la trata de poner bajo control. Al entrar a 2012, no solo no se ha alcanzado una solución relativamente satisfactoria, sino que los desafíos e incertidumbres, lejos de ceder, parecieran ser cada vez más acuciantes. Lo cierto es que una crisis con tales características pone en cuestionamiento, sino el capitalismo como sistema económico dominante a escala planetaria, cuanto menos los paradigmas teórico-ideológicos y las ejecuciones concretas al nivel de las políticas, las instituciones, la producción y el consumo, dominantes durante los últimos decenios a nivel mundial. Pero ello también convoca a un replanteamiento del modelo neoliberal de crecimiento vigente en Costa Rica durante los últimos veintiocho años.

Emotional intelligence, locus of control and conflict handling skills as predictors of non-violent behaviour among university students in south-western Nigeria

This study examined Emotional Intelligence, Locus of control and Conflict Handling Skills as Predictors of non-violent behaviours among University Students in South-Western Nigeria. The population was all the Nigerian University Students in the South-Western Nigerian out of which a sample of 1,000 participants were selected using the simple random sampling technique. Three research questions were raised. The instruments used to collect data were: (i) Emotional and social competency inventory by Goleman D. (2007); (ii) The internal control index by Duttweilar, P.C (1984); (iii) Conflict Handling Behaviour Rating scale by Hameed A. (2002). The instruments were administered at the four Universities used for the study while Multiple Regression Analysis and Pearson Product Moment Correlation were used to analyse the data at 0.05 level of significance. The findings revealed that there was a significant relationship between each of the independent valuables. There was a joint effect of the independent variables on non-violent behaviour of the students. Also, there was a contribution of each of the independent variables to the prediction of non-violent behaviour among the students. Deaths and injuries from students' crisis or violent behaviour constitute a major public health problem in many institutions and parts of the world. Significant variation in the magnitude of this problem exists within and between countries and regions of the world. Over the years, a lot of measures, preventions and strategies have been learnt and put in place to identify the causes of students' crises in Nigerian universities. Scientific evidences on the pattern and causes of the crisis both qualitative and quantitative is on the increase yearly. For instance, 20-40 victims of students crisis receives treatment from various hospitals yearly in Israel, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Norway, Jamaica, Johannesburg, South Africa, Kenya, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Mozambique and Nigeria (WHO, 2010). Similarly, studies conducted by World Health Organization, WHO (2009) in Jamaica, Kenya and Mozambique show a high rate of violent behaviour in universities where students used fire arms, knives, clubs, stones, firsts and feet to attack security agents, colleaques and university authorities. In a study conducted by WHO, 2009 in Orebro, Sweden using 1,000 young males who displayed violent behaviour up to age 26 years had already scored highly for aggressiveness at the ages of 10 and 13 years. In a study in Columbia, United States in 2010 by WHO, it was found that 59% of the university students' arrested for violent offences between age 18 years were reported as adults and 42% of these were charge for serious crimes. In Nigeria, students' revolutionary behaviour has been a great concern, not only to university administrators but to parents, guardians and those concerned with the students' welfare. The Nigerian universities and other higher institutions of learning can hardly accomplish their missions as repositories of knowledge if they are constantly thrown into students' crisis. Some of the universities that witnessed students violent behaviours include: University of Ibadan, 1978, Ahmadu Bello University, 1981, University of Ife now Obafemi Awolowo University, Helfe, 1991, 2005, Bayero University Kano, 1981, University of Lagos, 1997, Lagos State University, 1998, Olabisi Onabanjo University, 2005 and host of others. Similarly, Taiwo (2004); Reza, Krug and Mercy (2001), Uduigwoman (2003), Nwosu and Odeyemi (1998) as well as Amakiri (1997) have in a related studies established that age, religion, sex as well as self efficacy and social competence constitute very important factors to be considered to prevent crisis in Nigeria tertiary institutions. This study therefore having consider the great effect of violent behaviour on the Nigerian universities, the university community, students and parents, examines the use of Emotional Intelligence, Locus of Control and Conflict Handling Skills as Predictors of non-violent behaviour among university students in South western Nigeria. …

청소년 학업중단의 가족 및 사회환경적 요인 분석 연구

이 연구의 목적은 가족요인과 사회환경적 요인이 청소년의 학업중단 행동에 영향을 미치는 경로를 밝혀 청소년의 학업중단 행동을 예방 혹은 해결하기 위한 시사점을 찾으려는 것이다. 연구목적을 달성하기 위하여 J시 상담센터에 접수된 120명의 위기청소년을 대상으로 관련 변인을 측정한 후 자료를 분석하였다. 연구의 결과는 첫째, 가족 구조적 요인으로서 가정경제수준과 결손가정은 가족유대감과 일탈친구 요인을 매개로 학업중단 행동에 영향을 미친다. 둘째, 가족심리적 요인으로서 가족갈등은 학업중단의 직접적인 요인은 아니며, 가족유대감은 일탈친구와 무단결석 요인과 결합되어 학업중단 행동에 영향을 미친다. 셋째, 사회환경적 요인으로서 무단결석은 가족유대감과 일탈친구, 일탈친구는 가족유대감과 무단결석 요인을 매개로 학업중단 행동에 영향을 미친다. 이러한 연구 결과는 청소년의 학업중단 행동은 주로 가족심리적 요인으로서 가족유대감과, 사회환경적 요인으로서 일탈친구 요인이 가장 큰 영향을 미친다는 점을 확인시켜 주는 것이다. 따라서 이러한 요인의 개선 혹은 관련 프로그램의 개발 운영이 청소년의 학업중단 행동을 예방하고 개선하는 데 도움이 될 것이다. The purpose of this study is to examine what is the path that family and socio-environmental factors of adolescents lead to school dropout called educational crisis behavior. To investigate these research problems, the path was analyzed on the basis of the related data and variations after interview with 120 crisis adolescents in 'J Youth Counseling Center' in Jeon-ju City. By the results of this analysis, the family ties as a familial factor and the deviation friends as a socio-environmental factor had an effect on adolescents' school dropout behavior. These results indicate the need to reform the interpersonal relationship in family and school friends for preventing and solving the adolescents' crisis behavior such as school dropout behavior.

Lame Ducks and Coercive Diplomacy

The literature on “audience costs” in International Relations suggests that a democratic leader’s electoral accountability lends him or her a significant advantage in crisis-bargaining situations. But if elections are the primary source of a democratic leader’s accountability, a democracy’s advantage in crisis situations should disappear when its leader is no longer eligible for reelection. Accordingly, this article asks whether “lame-duck” presidents, those who are constitutionally prohibited from reelection, are systematically less effective than their reelectable counterparts in crisis-bargaining situations. Using a data set of all post–World War II militarized interstate disputes initiated by presidential democracies, the author tests several hypotheses regarding lame-duck crisis behavior derived from Fearon’s bargaining model. The findings generally support the audience costs model. Observed patterns of threat reciprocation and crisis hostility are consistent with Fearon’s predictions. Crisis outcomes, however, do not appear to be affected by a democratic leader’s lame-duck status.

UN intervention and the duration of international crises

This article examines the effect of UN actions on the duration of international crises. Four different types of action – assurance, diplomatic engagement, military involvement, and intimidation – and three different outcomes – compromise, victory, and stalemate – are considered. After building on the existing literature to develop expectations of how a third party like the UN shapes crisis trajectories, hypotheses are tested using the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data and a new events dataset on UN activity. Results from competing-risks models reveal that UN military involvement does well to decrease the risk of one side achieving victory, and diplomatic engagement increases the ability of the belligerents to reach a compromise in the long run. Moreover, diplomatic engagement accompanied by military involvement substantially hastens the pace of stalemate outcomes. Both tactics, however, have some trade-offs. Military involvement can decrease the sense of urgency for compromise; diplomatic engagement can be used for insincere motives and increase the risk of one-sided victory over time. UN actions of assurance and simple intimidation have considerable shortcomings as crisis management vehicles.

Reputation for Resolve, Interests, and Conflict

Schelling’s work laid the foundation for a reputational theory of conflict behavior, claiming that a state’s reputation for resolve, as established through its past behavior, should provide it with bargaining leverage in future conflicts. This argument is scrutinized both theoretically and empirically in this study and also juxtaposed to an alternative framework that modifies the impact of “face-saving” stakes with those of a more inherent nature, such as the interests in a dispute. We advance an argument about the interplay between a state’s reputation from past behavior and its current interests in order to predict its crisis behavior. Our empirical expectations are subsequently tested in a quantitative analysis of deterrence crises for the period 1895–1985. The findings indicate that, while reputation matters, its impact is indirect at best and contingent on a state’s interests. Given the strong empirical support, we expect the interaction between reputation and interests as specified in our analysis to further contribute to a better understanding of conflict behavior.

Design and Implementation of An Agent-Based Simulation for Emergency Response and Crisis Management

This paper introduces the simulation component of the WIPER system [Schoenharl et al., 2006]. The Wireless Integrated Phone-based Emergency Response (WIPER) system is a Dynamic Data-Driven Application System (DDDAS) that uses a stream of cellular network activity to detect, classify and predict crisis events. The WIPER simulation is essential to classification and prediction tasks, as the simulations model human activity, both in movement and cell phone activity, in an attempt to better understand crisis events. These Agent-Based simulations are parameterized with agent location data from the cellular service provider and agents inhabit a GIS space representative of the urban area. Simulations include models for normal and crisis behaviors in an urban setting. Simulations generate call activity and agent locations, similar to that generated by the observation of cell phone users in an urban setting. A taxonomy of crisis events is presented, which has simplified the development of the simulation. We present an overview of the design and implementation of the WIPER simulation along with validation and verification of the system and an evaluation of runtime characteristics.

Análise de Convergência de Performance das Bolsas de Valores: a Situação do Ibovespa no Cenário Mundial

Este artigo aplica a técnica de convergência proposta por Phillips e Sul (2007) para um painel de índices transacionados nas principais bolsas de valores no mundo. Corroborando Antzolautos et al. (2009), não se evidencia uma tendência de convergência comum. O Índice da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Ibovespa) consiste no mais antigo dos que compõem o grupo com maior nível na tendência observada nas dinâmicas de transição, o qual é composto por índices voláteis de bolsas com razoável nível de maturidade, situadas principalmente em países da América Latina e Central, com elevada inflação. O segundo clube compreende a maioria das bolsas analisadas, caracterizadas por um maior nível de maturidade e tradição dos mercados financeiros e de desenvolvimento das economias, situadas na Europa, América do Norte e Ásia. O terceiro clube compreende poucas bolsas, sem padrão aparente. Os padrões macroeconômicos, geográficos e financeiros evidenciados podem ser úteis na inferência sobre a recuperação do mercado financeiro após a crise financeira.

Total Approach for Environmental Protection Abel Wolman

Somewhat less than ten years ago, the Environmental Protection Act was signed into law. Following upon that national acceptence of an abiding interest in the environment, a deluge ensued of regulations, standards, law suits, journals, impact statements, and scientific and pseudo-scientific papers. The scramble to climb on the ecological band-wagon, even in this land of crisis behavior, was an extraordinary phenomenon. The faith in instant correction of past ecological ills by legislative and administrative fiats was strong. No politician dared to risk his career by suggesting that a somewhat slower motion toward the millennium might be the part of wisdom.

Political Crises and the Stock Market Integration of Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the role of political crises in explaining the change in the degree of stock market integration for emerging markets over the period 1991-2006. Using a unique database, the International Crisis Behavior database, which contains detailed information about political crises around the world, we assess whether political crises affect stock market integration for 19 emerging markets from Far East Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. We find that crises and their characteristics significantly reduce the level of stock market integration for these regions. In particular, the start of a political crisis, its severity, US involvement in the conflict and the number of actors involved in the crisis all have a significant impact on the level of stock market integration for the emerging markets in each region.

Is it cohesion or diversion? Domestic instability and the use of force in international crises

This study asserts that cohesionary — rather than diversionary — motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for 139 countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use of force during international crises. I also find that the impact of mass violence on the external use of force is contingent on ethno-religious heterogeneity and regime type.

Political crises and the stock market integration of emerging markets

This paper investigates the role of political crises in explaining the degree of stock market integration in emerging markets over the period 1991–2006. Using the International Crisis Behavior database, which contains detailed information on political crises around the world, and employing data on more than 15,500 firms, we assess whether political crises affect stock market integration in 19 emerging markets in South and East Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe. We conclude that crises with certain characteristics generally reduce the level of stock market integration in these regions. In particular, the beginning of a political crisis, its severity, the involvement of the US in the conflict, and the number of parties involved in a crisis all have impacts on the level of stock market integration in these markets.

Escalation of interstate crises of conflictual dyads

This article examines the causation and extent of interstate crisis escalation among two conflictual dyads, namely Greece–Turkey and India–Pakistan. It draws from the International Crisis Behaviour dataset to present a new sub-dataset of 12 interstate crises involving the two dyads in the period 1987 to 2002. While crisis behaviour in Greece–Turkey has frequently been analysed within the context of two major regional organizations (NATO and the EU), Indian–Pakistani crises have been studied within the perspective of nuclear proliferation. To examine the linkage between these features and interstate crises, the article operationalizes the security dilemma and the diversionary theory of war through a probabilistic model. Using Ragin’s (2000) comparative qualitative analysis, it demonstrates that both the security dilemma and diversionary theory explain crisis escalation, although the latter covers more cases with a smaller margin of error. Moreover, the article demonstrates that Greek–Turkish crises have generally escalated to relatively low levels of conflict (threat of war or show of force), while Indian–Pakistani crises have spiralled to higher levels of confrontation (use of force). In both dyads, nuclear weapons and regional organizations have shaped the boundaries of possible escalatory action. The EU and NATO have contributed to mitigating crisis escalation and the use of force between the Aegean neighbours, while unintentionally encouraging low intensity confrontations; meanwhile, in South Asia, nuclear weapons in combination with fragile domestic regimes have exacerbated crises, particularly in the form of state-sponsored unconventional warfare.

Mutual Optimism as a Rationalist Explanation of War

Blainey (1988) popularized the argument that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about their relative bargaining power. This is known as the mutual optimism cause of war. Fey and Ramsay (2007) argue that existing models of crisis bargaining cannot properly evaluate this explanation. They propose an alternative class of models with features they claim are better suited for the purpose, and prove that war cannot occur with positive probability in equilibrium in any model of this class. They conclude that the mutual optimism explanation is logically incoherent. We provide a modern rationalist specification of the mutual optimism explanation using our standard models and defend them against the five allegations Fey and Ramsay make against them. We further show that their result has little to do with optimism but instead depends on two indefensible assumptions: (1) actors can unilaterally avoid war by imposing peace terms on opponents who find them worse than war, and (2) the terms of any peace outcome cannot depend on crisis behavior. Their class of models cannot be used to study crisis bargaining in general and mutual optimism in particular.