COVID-19 In Nigeria Research Articles

A Time Series Model to Forecast Covid-19 Infection rate in Nigeria Using Box-Jenkins Method

Coronavirus declared as a global pandemic by WHO has emerged as the most aggressive disease negatively affecting more than 90% countries of the world. Nigeria, one of the most populated countries in Africa is not an exception. This study focuses on analyzing the intrinsic patterns in the COVID-19 spread in Nigeria using the Box-Jenkins procedure. Data of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria was retrieved from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) official website from February 27, 2020 to October 31, 2020 to identify the series components, estimate parameters, develop an appropriate stochastic predictive model and use the model to forecast future trend of the deadly virus. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) of order (0,1,1) was identified as the most suitable model based on the analysis of the autocorrelation (ACF), partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) and Akaike Information Correction (AICc) value. R software version 4.0.3 was used to analyze the trend which moothen the series by using 8-point moving average to extract the irregular component as wellas differencing the series one step further to obtain a stationary series. We performed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit root test, parameter estimation and Ljung-Box test to check the proposed model’s conformity to the stationary univariate process. A 85 – day (1st Oct., 2020 – 24th Jan., 2020)forecast shows a gradual decline in the successive number of confirmed cases of infection indicating the effectiveness of the intervention strategies employed by the Task Force to contain the virus. The concerned authorities can apply the forecasted trend to make further informed decisions on the measures to be put in place to reduce diffusion of the deadly virus into the country.

Impact of COVID-19 on utilization of maternal, newborn and child health services in Nigeria: protocol for a country-level mixed-methods study.

Background: Battling with COVID-19 and providing essential services along the continuum of care could be challenging. This study will evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on utilization of maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) services in Nigeria and explore the barriers being experienced by women and their families in getting access to MNCH services, as well as other contextual factors that may have shaped the utilization of MNCH services during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and analysis: The study will adopt an observational mixed-methods study design involving 18 health care facilities delivering MNCH services in six selected states across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. We will retrieve longitudinal data on MNCH services from all selected hospitals six months before and after the first recorded case of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Qualitative data will be collected using in-depth interviews conducted via mobile phones or ZOOM meeting platforms among stakeholder participants (users of MNCH services, health workers and policymakers) to ascertain their perceptions on how COVID-19 has shaped the utilization of MNCH services. We will triangulate quantitative and qualitative data to better understand the impact of COVID-19 on the utilization of MNCH services in Nigeria. Ethics and dissemination: Ethics approvals have been obtained from the Health Research Ethics Committee of the tertiary hospitals involved in the study.Our findings will provide the first evidence from an African setting on the impact of COVID-19 on the utilization of MNCH services using a mixed-methods study design for policy formulation towards sustained MNCH service delivery.

Online LIS teaching and learning during COVID-19 in Nigeria: a study

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to investigate the use of social media platforms in teaching/learning in the period of lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopted a survey method and an online questionnaire was designed using SurveyMonkey for data collection from students in the Department of Library and Information Science (LIS) in some universities in Nigeria. In total, 1,290 students and five lecturers participated in the survey from five universities in Nigeria. To supplement the data from the questionnaire, the five LIS lecturers were engaged in an interview.FindingsThe study found that Zoom and WhatsApp were used by the lecturers to deliver lectures to their students. Lecturers are always available, the opportunity to store lectures and files for re-use at convenience, allows for collaborative learning, sharing learning materials, freedom in asking lecturer questions and conducive learning at home were mentioned as some of the benefits of receiving an online lecture. Some challenges associated with electronic teaching and learning were also identified. The LIS lecturers interviewed mentioned some benefits and challenges of engaging in electronic teaching during the period of lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.Practical implicationsThe research offered educators an additional method for teaching and learning in situations where physical contacts are not possible. Because electronic learning platforms are free and can be used at liberty, they require self-discipline and more responsibility from students and lecturers, which might be a challenge. It requires lecturers to generate new skills, be cognitively sensitive and well-sequenced.Social implicationsTeacher/students relationship can be improved significantly with the use of social media platforms for teaching and learning.Originality/valueThe study reported the use of social media platforms such as WhatsApp, Zoom in the teaching/learning process in the university system in a developing country context.

Comparative report of compliance to precautionary measures against COVID-19 in Nigeria and Jordan

Purpose of the studyThe purpose of this study is to comparatively report the strategies for implementation of safety measures against the transmission of Covid-19 in Nigeria as the heart of Africa and Jordan as the nexus of Arab world. MethodologyThe methodology used in this study is systematic literature review (SLR) and content analysis of report of the secondary data on Covid-19 which was obtained from Nigerian Centre for Disease Control & Presidential Task Force in Nigeria and Jordanian National Committee for Epidemic. Main findingsThe report showed indicators of compliance to precautionary measures against the spread of Covid-19 in both Nigeria and Jordan. There was an imposition total lockdown in major citizens like Lagos & Abuja in Nigeria and Irbid in Jordan while partial lockdown in other parts of the countries. Also, both countries tried to comply with the safety measures provided by World Health Organization (WHO) against Covid-19 such as: the use of facemask, social distancing, hand sanitizers and school activities were suspended. However, there is no specific fine against the violators of precautionary measures in Nigeria as compared to what is obtainable in Jordan where fines of Jordanian Dinars of 20–50 was imposed. Applications of this studyThe report can be useful to Nigeria Centre for Disease Control & Presidential Task Force in Nigeria, Jordanian National Committee for Epidemic, health workers and policymakers towards strengthening compliance with safety measures that are put in place in curtailing further transmission of the virus. Novelty/originality of this studyMost studies on Covid-19 assessed the rate of the spread of the pandemic but this study attempts to comparatively examine the compliance of precautionary measures in combatting the spread of Covid-19 in both Nigeria and Jordan. The readers would benefit from the study by galvanizing efforts in ensuring the compliance to the safety measures against the transmission of Covid-19 in both Nigeria and Jordan.

Cooperative for Sustainable Peace-Building and Survival Strategy of Post COVID-19 in Nigeria

This study underscored the avalanche opportunity of range of cooperative principles intrinsic in sustainable peace-building and survival strategy of post covid-19 in Nigeria, which has not been the focus of any study. Data for the study were collected through simple random sampling technique in which 216 cooperatives were randomly selected and questionnaire were filled and returned. Using mean rating of 5-piont Likert scale analysis and a theoretical mean value of 3.0 was taken as a criterion to judge. The One-sample t-test result revealed that avalanche opportunity of rage of cooperative principles assist cooperatives on effective peace-building and survival strategy of post covid-19 in Nigeria. This revealed that cooperative governance is more open and democratic, keeping the capital in the local community, member motivations is a key driver of future participations, there is focusing of fairness for those who are most disadvantaged, desire for reward and self-advancement and equitable distribution of dividends based on patronage. The study recommends that cooperatives required pursuing both economic and social objectives for peace-building and survival strategy of post covid-19 in Nigeria. Cooperatives should provide a pool of funds from which disadvantaged members take loans and ensuring that members receive the lowest prices. Also, cooperative should generate returns that could be shared as dividends based on patronage to members periodically.

Does Household Consumption Expenditure Improves During Covid-19 in Nigeria: an Overview of Pre and Post Era

Does Household Consumption Expenditure Improves During Covid-19 in Nigeria: an Overview of Pre and Post Era

The Spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria: The Influence of Transportation and Economic Zones

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) now known as Covid-19 was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease rapidly spread to other cities in China and to other parts of the world. The aim of this study is to investigate the contribution which the economic zones and movement of people into the country and from city to city and State to State within the country have on the spread of the disease in Nigeria. Data of the daily update of Covid-19 occurrence in Nigeria as given by the NCDC Covid-19 Situation report were assembled. The data of the first index in each State between February 27 and March 28, 2020 with the status of whether they were from foreign travel or from within the community was compiled. The results show that economic zones and human movement contribute to the early spread of the disease. The initial spatial spread in Nigeria was observed to follow closely behind the test laboratory distribution pattern. This may suggest that samples from the locations far from the laboratories were not obtained, hence the suggestion for early aggressive country-wide-large scale testing to cover almost everyone should be started very early before the spread is everywhere. The test labs should cover the whole country with the tests made free and mandatory to encourage and force people to come out for it and the restriction protocols should strictly be adhered to. The boarders of the country should be closed early to stop further import of the disease from the high risk countries. When the airports are later re-opened, they should not be to the high-risk countries of the disease. There is also a need for a national policy on responding to and managing any future public health crisis such as Covid-19 pandemic before its occurrence. This policy will help the government to know what to start doing quickly when there is any occurrence. Government should also look inward to mobilize the scientists inside the country by providing research grants purposely to combat the pandemic. Such grants will enable our scientists to make their contribution in addition to the ones made by the scientists outside the country.

Laughing at the Pandemic: Youth Performance and Digital Humour in Response to Covid-19 in Nigeria

This article investigates humour as a crucial instrument for the expression of young people’s perceptions regarding Covid-19 in Nigeria. The article relies on creative digital data sourced from the online environment (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and WhatsApp) and discusses these data based on thematic categories to demonstrate how young people use humour to express doubts about the existence of the virus and to downplay its deadly global threat. The article uncouples the manner in which humour as a performative idiom is heuristically exploited to signify collective sociopolitical discontent with a political establishment that is disconnected from its people. Drawing insights from multimodal critical discourse analysis and performance theory, the article engages digital comic narratives, skits, and memes as dialogic new media texts that sustain indigenous comic oral performances for collective socio-psychological healing and to engage in political satire. Beyond these, we conceive of digital humour and its responses to the Covid-19 pandemic as one more creative enterprise in which social media provide a platform for young people to engage a conservative system.

Television News Coverage of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria: Missed Opportunities to Promote Health Due to Ownership and Politics

This study examined Television news coverage of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria from February 2020 to July 2020. The focus was on African Independent Television (AIT), a privately owned TV, and Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), a government-owned TV. We also interviewed ( n = 30) participants to understand their view on media coverage of the pandemic. We found that the TV stations paid adequate attention to the issues of COVID-19. However, the private media allocated more prominence to the coverage of COVID-19. By implication, the private media had more COVID-19 stories telecasted on its headline which also appeared as the first headline in many cases. Furthermore, they had more stories that were aired 61 seconds and above. The findings also showed that the government media outlet cited more of government officials while the private media dueled more on the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). The private media had more negative tone stories, and most of its stories used visual and motion footages. Overall, our findings suggest that media ownership and politics play a large role in the coverage of COVID-19 in Nigeria. This has affected the attitude of the public as many of them no longer see the pandemic as something serious, but rather politically motivated virus to highlight the failings of the political party in power.

Mitigating the Devastating Effects of Covid-19 in Nigeria: The Place of Different Forms of Literacy

One of the global concerns in contemporary times is COVID-19 pandemic, otherwise known as corona virus, which, according to available records, had its origin in China. The pandemic, from all indications, has had devastating effects in the areas of health, economy, education and socialisation globally. Against this background, this paper reviewed the outbreak of the pandemic and its devastating effects globally and noted that so far, there had not been any known cure. Although efforts had been made by some nations and pharmaceutical outfits to develop vaccines, the paper observed that there had been a whole lot of controversies surrounding the efficacy and side effects of the vaccines, and as a result, many people had avoided making themselves available for the administration of the vaccines. In view of the foregoing, the paper argued that the corona virus, for now, has come to stay with humanity as HIV AIDS and other terminal diseases such as cancer, high blood pressure, diabetes and the like. And as a result, it is suggested that the Nigeria Government should, in addition to other measures already put in place to combat the deadly virus, ensure that the literacy rate of Nigerians as regards reading-writing literacy, media literacy and health literacy is accelerated so that Nigerians will be equipped and empowered to cope with the devastating effects of COVID-19.

Communicating COVID-19 to rural dwellers: Revisiting the role of traditional media in crisis communication

The recording of the index case of COVID-19 in Nigeria prompted the government to activate emergency communication strategies across the country. This study examines the awareness of the COVID-19 virus amongst rural dwellers and the importance of traditional media in health crisis communication amongst the residents of Ebonyi state. An adult sample size of 95 persons (32 male and 63 female) was assessed. The study adopts an in-depth interview as the research design. Data were generated using an interview guide and analysed thematically. The results show that rural dwellers are aware of the virus and the compliance level is high. There is a huge dependence on traditional media like town crier as the source of information amongst rural dwellers. The present study highlights the need to include rural dwellers in crisis communication planning and the integration of traditional media in future crisis communication planning.

Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Pandemic: Modeling and Stability Analysis

Covid-19, as a pandemic disease around the world, has generated great threat to human society and caused enormous mortality with weak surveillance system. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to describe the transmission of Covid-19. Moreover, basic reproduction number and the local and global dynamics of the dynamical model are obtained. Then we apply our model to characterize the transmission process of Covid-19 in Nigeria. It was found that, in order to avoid its outbreak in Nigeria, it may be better to adhere to government policy to curtail the spread through person-to-person transmission and make effort to improve personal hygiene as well as early detection and reporting. Our results may provide some new insights for elimination of Covid-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic: Stay Home policy and exposure to risks of infection amongNigerians.

The global threat which continues to accompany SARS‐CoV‐2 has led to a global response which adopts lockdown and stays home policy as means of curtailing its spread. This study investigates compliance with the Stay Home policy and exposure to COVID‐19 in Nigeria. A survey was conducted from April 4 to May 8, 2020 using a cross‐sectional mixed‐methods approach to elicit responses from 879 participants across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Descriptive, χ 2, and multiple regression tests were used to analyze survey data using SPSS, whereas NVivo v12 was used for thematic analysis of qualitative data. States with complete lockdown had 72.4% of respondents complying fully with the policy compared with 44.2% of respondents in zones with the partial lockdown. Market places, classified as high‐risk zones, were the most visited (n = 505; 71.0%). Though compliance was influenced by the nature of lockdown enforced (χ 2 = 70.385, df = 2; p < 0.05), being a female, a widow, and unemployed were associated with increased compliance. Exposure to COVID‐19 was associated with being married, unemployed, and having no income. Fear, anxiety, and misperception play major roles in compliance. The authors conclude that compliance is not uniform and a more nuanced and targeted approach is required as the government continues to respond to the COVID‐19 global pandemic.

Tracking and modeling public perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

The study tracked and modeled public perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria over a 3 month period (10 May to 10 August 2020); 2580 Nigerians across the six geopolitical zones were selected to participate in the study. These participants were selected from various social media platforms and were requested to complete an online survey over a 3-month period. Data were analyzed in three phases: tracking, modeling, and forecasting. We first tracked the respondents’ perceptions in the form of a qualitative response, where seven thematic constructs emerged from content analysis. These constructs were confirmed in the modeling phase, using structural equation modeling after data transformation. The themes were forecast as a single construct to predict possible trends and patterns over the next 3 month period using an autoregressive integrated moving average. Our findings revealed that public perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria fall into seven thematic constructs: “scam,” “fake,” “politics,” “business venture,” “exaggeration,” “real,” and “real but manipulated.” These constructs show a steady trend with a random walk pattern, suggesting that perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 in Nigeria will remain relatively unchanged over the next 3 month period. We recommend, among other things, that massive and intensive sensitization and awareness programs are needed to change the public mindset concerning the reality of the pandemic in Nigeria.

Role of Mathematical Model in Curbing COVID-19 in Nigeria

COVID-19 is a viral disease that is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) which has no approved vaccine. Based on the available non-pharmacological interventions like wearing of face masks, observing social distancing, and lockdown, this work assesses the impact of non-pharmaceutical control measures (social distancing and use of face-masks) and mass testing on the transmission of COVID-19 in Nigeria. A mathematical model for COVID-19 is formulated with intervention measures (observing social distancing and wearing of face masks) and mass testing. The basic reproduction number, R_0, is computed using next-generation method while the disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R_0&lt; 1. The model is parameterized using Nigeria data on COVID-19 in Nigeria. The basic reproduction number is found to be less than unity (R_0 &lt; 1) either when the compliance with intervention measures is moderate (50% &lt;= alpha&lt; 70%) and the testing rate per day is moderate (0,5 &lt;=alpha_2 &lt; 0,7) or when the compliance with intervention measures is strict (alpha&gt;=70%) and the testing rate per day is poor (alpha_2 = 0,3). This implies that Nigeria will be able to halt the spread of COVID-19 under these two conditions. However, it will be easier to enforce strict compliance with intervention measures in the presence of poor testing rate due to the limited availability of testing facilities and manpower in Nigeria. Hence, this study advocates that Nigerian governments (Federal and States) should aim at achieving a testing rate of at least 0.3 per day while ensuring that all the citizens strictly comply with wearing face masks and observing social distancing in public.

ARIMA Modelling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Daily Confirmed/Death Cases: A Case Study of Nigeria

Aims: The aim of this work is to develop suitable ARIMA models which can be sued to forecast daily confirmed/death cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. This is subject to developing the model, checking them for suitability and carrying out eight months forecast, and making recommendations for the Nigerian Health sector.&#x0D; Study Design: The study used daily confirmed and death cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria.&#x0D; Methodology: This work covers times series data on the on the daily confirmed/death cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria, obtained from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NDCD) from 21 March 2020 to 5 May 2020, covering a total of 51 data points. This work is geared towards developing a suitable Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models which can be used to forecast total daily confirmed/death cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Two adequate subset ARIMA (2, 2, 1) and AR (1) models for the confirmed/death cases, respectively, is fitted and discussed&#x0D; Results: A forecast of 239 days – from 6th May 2020 to 31 December 2020 was conducted using the fitted models and we observed that the COVID19 data has an upward trend and is best forecasted within a short period.&#x0D; Conclusion: Critical investigation into the rate of spread of COVID-19 pandemic has shown that, that the daily confirmed cases as well as death cases of the disease tends to follow an upward trend. This work aimed at developing a suitable ARIMA models which can be used to fit a most appropriate subsets to statistically forecast the actual number of confirmed cases as well as death cases of COVID-19 recorded in Nigeria for a period of 8 months.

Modeling the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria.

To understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria, a mathematical model which incorporates the key compartments and parameters regarding COVID-19 in Nigeria is formulated. The basic reproduction number is obtained which is then used to analyze the stability of the disease-free equilibrium solution of the model. The model is calibrated using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and key parameters of the model are estimated. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the influence of the parameters in curtailing the disease. Using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, time-dependent intervention strategies are optimized in order to suppress the transmission of the virus. Numerical simulations are then used to explore various optimal control solutions involving single and multiple controls. Our results suggest that strict intervention effort is required for quick suppression of the disease.

Low First Wave COVID-19 cases and health seeking behaviors across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria

This study was carried out across the six geopolitical zones to assess knowledge and health seeking behaviors of Nigerians during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in order to understand the seemingly low cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Structured and pretested short questionnaires were employed to obtain information electronically and physically across the six geopolitical zones on socio-demographic characteristics of participants; the knowledge of participants on COVID-19 disease; availability and accessibility to testing and isolation centers in the communities, attitudes and health seeking behaviors. Atotal of 1023 respondents; 705 (68.9%) males and 318 (31.1%) females across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria participated in this study with 477(46.6%) within the 26-45 years age category, and 6(0.6%) above 66 years. Atotal of 985(96.3%) had heard about COVID-19 at the time of survey while a total of 859(84.0%) of the respondents were aware of the presence of COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. Across the geopolitical zones, majority of the respondents 487(47.6%) claimed there are no routine testing for COVID-19 at their community level, while 303 (29.6%) affirmed otherwise and 216(21.1%) did not know if there were routine testing going on or not. On health seeking behaviors across the country, majority of the respondents 558(54.5%) affirmed they would visit the hospital as the first point of contact if the opportunitypresented itself, 244(23.9%) claimed they would call the NCDC toll line, 2(0.2%) said they would use prayers, while 1(0.1%) respectively claimed they would use home management strategies through visiting chemist stores and checking the internet for solutions. Findings from this study confirm that there is very high awareness of the COVID-19 disease across the country, and limited number of testing centers at the community level. The implications include the possibility of unreported COVID19 cases in the cities as well as in the communities.&#x0D; Keywords: COVID-19, knowledge, health seeking behaviors, community level

Social media and the spread of COVID-19 infodemic

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the social media application and the spread of COVID-19 infodemic in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachA descriptive survey research design was used for this study. A total of 1,200 social media users, regardless of their professions, were randomly selected for the study betweenmid-June and July 2020. Stratified and purposive sampling techniques were used for this study. The questionnaire was designed using Google form and administered using WhatsApp and Telegram to social media users above 18 years old in Nigeria. The data generated was analyzed using descriptive (frequency count) and inferential (mean) statistics, and was presented in tables.FindingsIt was found that people make use of social media during COVID-19 pandemic for diverse reasons such as listening to announcement to be informed, knowing the necessary measures to take by those infected and spreading up-to-date information on the pandemic. Social media tools were highly used during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially WhatsApp and Zoom. Findings reflected that misinformation was spread on social media. This study also showed that the infodemic associated with COVID-19 is managed by confirming the source of the information before sharing it and trusting information from reliable sources.Research limitations/implicationsThe result of this research will contribute to the body of knowledge on social media application, fake news and the spread of COVID-19 infodemic in Nigeria and beyond.Practical implicationsInfodemic is a disaster in the health sector. The spread of infodemic is capable of misleading people, losing trust in government, health providers and health regulatory authorities. This study will help social media users to know how to properly manage social media infodemic during a pandemic or any health-related situations.Originality/valueThis study is novel as it approaches fake news from a COVID-19 perspective. Very few articles emanate from the developing countries in this area. This was because most of the narrative around fake news previously centered around the Western occurrences such as the Iraqi invasion by the USA, the US presidential elections and BREXIT. COVID-19 has demonstrated that the developing world is not immune from fake news as well. This study, therefore, assessed the management of infodemic associated with COVID-19 in Nigeria.

A Year Emergence of Covid-19 in Nigeria and Its Consequences on Educational Development of Kwara State

Corona Virus Disease 2019 simply refers to as COVID-19 is among other coronaviruses that causes respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases. The virus was first outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019 but Nigeria recorded its first incidence case in Lagos State on 27th of February 2020, at exactly a year 155,076 Nigerians were infected. Kwara State of Nigeria has 2,901 confirmed laboratory tested cases, 2,268 already discharged and 51 people confirmed dead cases within a year. Interviews were conducted for selected staff and students in Kwara state. The pandemic emergence has both consequences on the educational development of Kwara state with more negative consequences like contributing to decadence of the inadequate education materials as a result of schools’ lockdown, health challenges, prolong of graduating years among others.