COVID-19 In Nigeria Research Articles

Modeling COVID-19 Cases in Nigeria Using Some Selected Count Data Regression Models

COVID-19 is currently threatening countries in the world. Presently in Nigeria, there are about 29,286 confirmed cases, 11,828 discharged and 654 deaths as of 6th July 2020. It is against this background that this study was targeted at modeling daily cases of COVID-19’s deaths in Nigeria using count regression models like; Poisson Regression (PR), Negative Binomial Regression (NBR) and Generalized Poisson Regression (GPR) model. The study aim at fitting an appropriate count Regression model to the confirmed, active and critical cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria after 118 days. The data for the study was extracted from the daily COVID-19 cases update released by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) online database from February 28th, 2020 – 6th, July 2020. The extracted data were used in the simulation of Poisson, Negative Binomial, and Generalized Poisson Regression model with a program written in STATA version 14 and fitted to the data at a 5% significance level. The best model was selected based on the values of -2logL, AIC, and BIC selection test/criteria. The results obtained from the analysis revealed that the Poisson regression could not capture over-dispersion, so other forms of Poisson Regression models such as the Negative Binomial Regression and Generalized Poisson Regression were used in the estimation. Of the three count Regression models, Generalized Poisson Regression was the best model for fitting daily cumulative confirmed, active and critical COVID-19 cases in Nigeria when overdispersion is present in the predictors because it had the least -2log-Likelihood, AIC, and BIC. It was also discovered that active and critical cases have a positive and significant effect on the number of COVID-19 related deaths in Nigeria.

Epidemiology of novel COVID-19 in Nigeria

The first case of COVID-19 from China was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on the 31st of December 2019. The infection was observed to spread relatively quickly to several other countries and by the 30th January 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The study was conducted to determine the epidemiology of novel COVID-19 in Nigeria. Data obtained were used to determine the distribution of the disease based on gender and age distribution. The case fatality rate (CFR), prevalence rate, recovery rate and mortality of the disease were also determined and compared with Africa and world. The data obtained showed that as of 12th July 2020, out of 32,558 cases recorded, 21,385 (66%) were males while 11,173 (34%) were females. Subjects within 31 – 40 years age category are more susceptible to contracting the disease in Nigeria which accounted for 24%. However, more deaths have been recorded among people of 60 years and above. The CFR, prevalence rate and mortality of the disease were extremely low and stood as 2.26%, 0.015% and 0.00034% respectively. The present recovery rate of the disease in Nigeria was 40.8%. It is concluded that the disease would be contained if relevant measures are put in place accordingly.

Good clinical practice advice for the management of pregnant women with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 in Nigeria.

The impact on healthcare services in settings with under‐resourced health systems, such as Nigeria, is likely to be substantial in the coming months due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, and maternity services still need to be prioritized as an essential core health service. The healthcare system should ensure the provision of safe and quality care to women during pregnancy, labor, and childbirth, and at the same time, maternity care providers including obstetricians and midwives must be protected and prioritized to continue providing care to childbearing women and their babies during the pandemic. This practical guideline was developed for the management of pregnant women with suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 in Nigeria and other low‐resource countries.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices Towards COVID-19: An Epidemiological Survey in North-Central Nigeria.

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a major public health challenge globally with countries of the world adopting unprecedented infection prevention and control (IPC) measures to urgently curtail the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of the people toward COVID-19 is critical to understanding the epidemiological dynamics of the disease and the effectiveness, compliance and success of IPC measures adopted in a country. This study sought to determine the levels of KAP toward COVID-19 among residents of north-central Nigeria. A cross-sectional online survey with a semi-structured questionnaire using a Snowball sampling technique was conducted during the national lockdown. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), Pearson’s correlation and regression tests. From a total of 589 responses received, 80.6, 59.6, 90.4 and 56.2% were from respondents between ages 18–39 years, males, had a college (Bachelor) degree or above and reside in urban areas respectively. Respondents had good knowledge (99.5%) of COVID-19, gained mainly through the internet/social media (55.7%) and Television (27.5%). The majority of the respondents (79.5%) had positive attitudes toward the adherence of government IPC measures with 92.7, 96.4 and 82.3% practicing social distancing/self-isolation, improved personal hygiene and using face mask respectively. However, 52.1% of the respondents perceived that the government is not doing enough to curtail COVID-19 in Nigeria. Pearson’s correlation showed significant relationship between knowledge of COVID-19 and attitude towards preventive measures (r = 0.177, p = 0.004, r = 0.137, p = 0.001). Although 61.8% of the respondents have no confidence in the present intervention by Chinese doctors, only 29.0% would accept COVID-19 vaccines when available. This study recorded good knowledge and attitudes among participants, however, community-based health campaigns are necessary to hold optimistic attitudes and practice appropriate intervention measures devoid of misconceptions.

COVID-19 and Idiosyncratic Food Dearth Risk Resilience in Nigeria

This study examined the interplay of COVID-19 and Idiosyncratic Food Dearth Risk Resilience in Nigeria; focusing on Oyo State as case study. A multistage sampling technique was used to elicit primary data from 210 rural crop farmers in the study area using a semi-structured questionnaire. CARE and WFP Household Coping Strategy Index (CSI) and Factor analysis were used to determine level of household resilience for food security in the study area. Likert scale was used to examine the idiosyncratic coping strategies adopted by the respondents against food dearth related risks during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria. Findings showed that 8 out of every 10 respondents do not have access to palliative stimulus packages from the Federal or Oyo state Government to impair the effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Out of the sampled households, only 35.71%, 32.38% and 31.90% had mild, moderate and severe resilience for food security respectively during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the study area. Results revealed that the households differ in socio-economic characteristics by their resilience level to food insecurity and that the idiosyncratic coping strategies of households against food dearth related shocks include relying on less preferred food, borrowing food, buying food on credit, allowing household members to eat elsewhere, begging for food, limiting portion of food, and restricting adult at meal. The study concluded that policies that underpin expansion of near-real time food security monitoring systems to provide timely, improved and geospatially indicative data to measure the pandemic’s unfolding effects and understand better farmers that are suffering from hunger and malnutrition and where they are. It suggested that food and nutrition assistance needs to be at the heart of Government social protection programs and laying the foundation for a more inclusive, green, and resilient recovery by ensuring COVID-19 dedicated resources are used in a “build to transform” approach and are evidence-based with emphasis on women and children.

Potential Plants for Treatment and Management of COVID-19 in Nigeria

The recent outburst of novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), now a global pandemic highlights an urgent need for therapeutics targeting ‘severe acute respiratory syndrome’ (SARS-CoV-2). In Nigeria, infection cases are on daily rise with death rate of ~3 %. Therefore, slowing the spread of the virus will significantly reduce the strain on the healthcare system and governments. Here, we presented local medicinal plants cultivated in Nigeria as possible therapeutic approaches, exclusively targeting SARS-CoV-2 and its pathways. The study focused on some plants containing bioactive compounds that showed promising results against previous coronaviruses. Potential plants identified include Zingiber officinale, Allium cepa, Allium sativum, echinacea, euphorbia hirta, Garcenea kola, Curcuma longa, Aleo vera and olea europaea. Although inhibition of viral replication is seen as the possible mechanism for antiviral activity of most of the natural compounds, recent research has shown that some natural compounds can interact with major viral proteins associated with virulence. Thereby, showing they could be a valuable tool for possible inhibition, management and treatment of SARS-CoV-2. However, further research is required to investigate and validate their potential use as anti-SARS-CoV-2.

Pandemic, Epidemic and Endemic: How Environmental Sanitation and Public Hygiene Laws Can be Utilized to Ensure a Safer Nigeria

A time like this is unprecedented in history, when almost all nations of the world are battling with an existence threatening disease on rampage. Predating the outbreak of the novel strain of COVID-19 in Nigeria was the Ebola virus outbreak that strongly rocked the nation and almost crippled her economy and that of many other African nations. Even more disturbing is the realization that the outbreak and ravage of these dangerous viruses does not in any way translate to the cowering and reduction of other seemingly less dangerous ones. Still very much amidst us are typhoid fever, malaria, Lassa fever, chicken pox and others that have claimed the lives of millions in this part of the world. Despite some uncertainties plaguing available information in this regard, medical and health experts seem to agree on the fact that basic hygiene and a clean environment could serve as an effective measure against many of these viruses and diseases; a very simple and basic measure which Nigeria should embrace tightly, considering the nation’s inadequacy in handling the cost demanding effect of a boomerang. This paper starts by looking into the importance of basic hygiene and a clean environment in curbing diseases and viruses. The paper then proceeds to consider the level of public hygiene and sanitation maintained in Nigeria; before delving into the current state and impact of laws in this area, examining both International laws and local legislations. The ultimate aim here is to push forth a more effective legal regime, enforcement procedure and positive attitude towards environmental sanitation and public hygiene, having in mind the larger picture of a safer Nigeria with a healthier economy.

Libraries and Health Literacy Campaigns as Veritable Tools for Curtailment of COVID- 19 in Nigeria

Health literacy is an important aspect of preventive measures in curtailing the spread of diseases in the society. This is due to the fact that a health literate person understands his/her health status, take prevention and control measures of various diseases. The purpose of this paper was to discuss how libraries and deployment of health literacy campaigns can prevent, control and curtail the spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. The researchers reviewed several literatures and found out that libraries have a big role to play to ensure that community recognises their information needs, search for relevant information and make use of the information to make informed health decisions. The study concluded that COVID-19 imposes a double burden of health emergency and economic crisis on government and the people. Therefore, it becomes imperative for all stakeholders including the libraries to be deeply involved in health literacy campaigns in order to curtail the spread of the pandemic code named COVID-19 in Nigeria. Keywords: Health Literacy, Libraries, COVID-19, Nigeria DOI: 10.7176/JEP/11-17-08 Publication date: June 30th 2020

Geospatial Assessment of Covid-19 Spread in Nigeria

The first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported in Nigeria on 27 th February 2020, the infected person is a 44-year-old Italian citizen who arrived at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos on 24 th February 2020. The number of confirmed cases rose to 8,344 with 249 deaths, 2,385 discharged cases and 5,710 active cases (https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng, accessed on 27 th May 2020 10:45am) within thirteen weeks the first case was reported. The spread of COVID-19 as wildfire has covered thirty-four (34) states of the federation including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The spread in Nigeria with an estimated population of over 206 million has been a major concern to the Federal and State governments. Lagos and Kano are the most populous states and have recorded highest number of confirmed cases in the country. Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) released guidelines to reduce the spread of COVID-19 which include social distancing, frequent washing of hands, avoiding crowded places and physical contact, use of face masks, etc. Records have shown that the worst-hit places are urban centres such as Lagos, Ibadan, Kano, Oshogbo, FCT, Kaduna, etc. COVID-19 risk factors in Nigeria include international exposure, high poverty level in the country, poor healthcare systems, population and crowded urban areas, internally displaced persons. This study aimed at using geospatial technologies to assess the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria while the objectives involved identifying risk factors, urban land use patterns, household living conditions and health facilities in Nigeria. Methodology included the use of administrative map of Nigeria, projected population data and COVID-19 data to generate land use map, population density and other products in GIS environment. The study recommended that both federal and state government should equip the treatment centres with basic health facilities and motivate health workers for optimal performance. Government should also assist farmers with seedlings, fertilisers and soft loans to ensure food security in the country.

COVID-19 in Nigeria: Presenting Opportunities for a New Normal in Healthcare Delivery

The COVID-19 pandemic has now involved nearly all countries and territories of the world, with no definite treatment or vaccine yet available. In this special edition of the Proceedings of the Nigerian Academy of Science, the flagship journal of the Nigeria Academy of Science (NAS), we present several research papers and commentaries that elucidate some experiences of the virus in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. Specific papers in this issue of the journal present some of the most salient features of the COVID-19 in Nigeria including: 1) the history of the evolution of the virus in Nigeria, and its summary national epidemiology within the first 100 days of its discovery in the country (Olorunda & Fatusi, 2020); 2) clarification of the biological differences and similarities between the virus in Nigeria, and the first specie of the virus that was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 (Mackenzie & Smith, 2020); and 3) the potential for the use of mouthwashes for diminishing the consequences of the virus in individuals who may have been exposed (Oyeniyi, Bosun-Arije & Jaiyesimi, 2020).

COVID-19 in Nigeria: An Analysis of the Early Epidemiological Trend of the Infection and Response Efforts

This paper presents an epidemiological analysis of the trends in Covid-19 infection in the first 100 days of the pandemic in Nigeria and the response efforts in the country. Data from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control and other relevant sources were analysed to show the national trend and compare sub-national trends. Analysis revealed that the infection rate is rising in the country despite efforts at lockdown and restriction of movements. Over the 100 days of focus, Nigeria recorded 15,181 cases with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.6%. Age 31-40 years had the highest number of cases, while only 8% occurred in individuals over 60 years. All the infections recorded in the first 24 days were in the South-west region. The South-west region had overall highest number of cases (56.7%) but the lowest CFR rate (1.5%), while South South region had the highest CFR (4.8%). CFR ranged from 0% (5 states) to 17% in Anambra State. Lagos, Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Kano – the main hubs of international travel into Nigeria – were the epicentres of the infection and recorded 60% of all cases. Three-fifths of the confirmed cases (60%) were concentrated in 20 Local Government Areas (LGA), comprising 2.6% of the country’s 774 LGAs. Nigeria is performing exceptionally low number of tests (<15% of declared national capacity) to diagnose the disease and facilities to perform the test are unevenly distributed. More context driven local actions are needed even as the country thinks and learns from the global experience of the disease.

Medical Malpractice in Public Health Emergencies: a Review of Medical Response to COVID-19 in Nigeria

The Article establishes that in a pandemic situation, there is a duty to prevent the transmission of disease & an established duty of care to all other patients. The upsurge in demand for health services in a pandemic situation should not excuse or justify the breach of this duty of care which can result in any harm or injury being done to a patient. In a pandemic situation, the rejection of patients by hospitals, the failure to pay special attention to patients even in isolation centres e.t.c can be adjudged as negligent actions for which medical practitioners & medical institutions can be liable.

Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 in Oil Exporting Countries: An Analytical Review of the Macroeconomic Indicators in Nigeria

One of the most burning issues that have dominated the public sphere in Nigeria and other oil exporting countries is the covid-19 pandemic and its attendant challenges. This pandemic is a shock on real economic fundamentals and frictionless of the market. It introduces a barrier between the market forces with strong complementary feedbacks in the real economy. The absence of precise vaccine or medication for the virus has necessitated the adoption of several precautionary measures with the aim of containing its wide spread. Critical among which are the travel restrictions, lockdown measures as well as social and physical distancing. These measures have detrimental effect on the demand and price of oil in the international market. In view of that, this study evaluates the social and economic impact of covid-19 in Nigeria taking into cognisance the effect on certain critical macroeconomic indicators. The study adopted an analytical approach to supplement the much ongoing documentations on the subject matter. Result shows that virtually all essential macroeconomic indicators are grossly affected with tax, remittances and employment exhibiting severe consequences. Also, uncertainty, panics and lockdown measures are key to motivating higher decrease in world demand. The supply disruptions and huge death toll generates a heightened uncertainty and panic for household and business. This uncertainty and panic leads to drop in consumption and investment thereby causing a decrease in corporate cash flows and triggered firm’s bankruptcy. Also, lay-off and exiting firms produce higher unemployment while labour income decreased significantly. Since it entails a large amount of government expenditure especially in the health sector which is required to contain the spread of the virus, there is needs for government to diversify its revenue sources and thus drop over dependency on the oil remittance. Furthermore, there is a need to support the financial system to avoid the health crisis becoming a financial crisis in the long-run.

Knowledge, Awareness and Practicestowards COVID-19 in Nigeria during the Ascent Time of the COVID-19 Episode

Knowledge, Awareness and Practicestowards COVID-19 in Nigeria during the Ascent Time of the COVID-19 Episode

Epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria

In late December 2019, there was an outbreak of a new Coronavirus infection in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, which caused acute respiratory syndrome of unknown aetiology. The World Health Organization (WHO) named the virus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV2) or COVID-19 and declared the infection a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020. The first case of COVID-19 in Nigeria was reported on the 27th of February 2020 and since then the numbers of confirmed cases has been on the increase, at least in Nigeria. With no vaccine or cure in sight, only public health measures that include personal protective measures, physical distancing, environmental and travel-related measures have been recommended to mitigate and contain the spread of the disease. There is need to make testing for COVID-19 widely available so that the true burden of the infection will be described. This step should assist policy makers in making evidence-based decisions in the prevention and control of the disease.

Clinical presentation, case management and outcomes for the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria.

IntroductionSuccess in curtailing the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) depends largely on a sound understanding of the epidemiologic and clinical profile of cases in a population as well as the case management approach. This study documents the presenting characteristics, treatment modalities and outcomes of the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria.MethodsThis retrospective study used medical records of the first 32 patients admitted and discharged from the Mainland Hospital, Lagos State, southwest Nigeria between February 27 and April 6, 2020. The outcomes of interest were death, promptness of admission process and duration of hospitalization.ResultsThe mean age of the patients was 38.1 years (SD: 15.5) and 66% were male. Three-quarters (75%) of the patients presented in moderately severe condition while 16% were asymptomatic. The most common presenting symptoms were fever (59%) and dry cough (44%). The mean time between a positive test result and admission was 1.63 days (SD: 1.31). Almost all (97%) the patients were treated with lopinavir-ritonavir with no recorded death. The median duration of hospital stay was 12 days (IQR: 9-13.5).ConclusionIn this preliminary analysis of the first COVID-19 cases in Nigeria, clinical presentation was mild to moderate with no mortality. Processes to improve promptness of admission and reduce hospital stay are required to enhance the response to COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria.

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05–0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28–15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65–8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83–7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26–1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.

COVID-19 in Nigeria and South Africa

COVID-19 is likely to affect Nigeria’s and South Africa’s economies adversely, amplifying preexisting macroeconomic weaknesses. Support for necessary public health measures remains flimsy in light of their harsh socio-economic impact, and will likely erode further should reported case numbers remain relatively low.

Descriptive epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 in Nigeria, 27 February-6 June 2020.

The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Nigeria with a view of generating evidence to enhance planning and response strategies. A national surveillance dataset between 27 February and 6 June 2020 was retrospectively analysed, with confirmatory testing for COVID-19 done by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The primary outcomes were cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality (CF). A total of 40 926 persons (67% of total 60 839) had complete records of RT-PCR test across 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory, 12 289 (30.0%) of whom were confirmed COVID-19 cases. Of those confirmed cases, 3467 (28.2%) had complete records of clinical outcome (alive or dead), 342 (9.9%) of which died. The overall CI and CF were 5.6 per 100 000 population and 2.8%, respectively. The highest proportion of COVID-19 cases and deaths were recorded in persons aged 31-40 years (25.5%) and 61-70 years (26.6%), respectively; and males accounted for a higher proportion of confirmed cases (65.8%) and deaths (79.0%). Sixty-six per cent of confirmed COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis. In conclusion, this paper has provided an insight into the early epidemiology of COVID-19 in Nigeria, which could be useful for contextualising public health planning.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.

A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.