COVID-19 Diffusion Research Articles

The spatial diffusion of covid-19 in Texas

ABSTRACT The predominant narrative of covid-19 emphasizes its unpredictable origins, virulence, human targets, and spatial targets. Its international spread may be erratic, but at the regional level, diffusion research has been able to forecast its spread with some accuracy. This study reviews research showing how infectious disease spread over space may be predicted dependent upon a place’s size, distance from large cities and disease entry points, population density, and SES. Based on these characteristics, this analysis models the arrival of covid-19 in each of the 254 counties of Texas between March 6 (the index case) and 1 September 2020, using Texas Department of State Health Statistics data. A temporal gravity model, based solely on the population of a place divided by distance to the dominant city of its tributary region is able to explain two-thirds of the variation in arrival dates. For specific places that the model cannot predict well, the examination of their residuals suggests other variables that substantially improve predictions. This model and procedure serve local planners in the case of a resurgence of the virus or another variant of it in Texas.

How Does Atmospheric Circulation Affect the Diffusion of COVID-19 in Polluted Cities?

This paper endeavors to explain how wind speed can affect the diffusion of COVID-19. The statistical analysis, based on data from Italy, suggests that high wind speed can reduce air pollution commingled with viral agents and as a consequence reduce infected individuals of COVID-19; moreover, results reveal that polluted cities with low wind speed have a greater number of infected individuals and total deaths also because of bad air quality. This study suggests the important role of atmospheric pollution and atmospheric circulation in the transmission dynamics of the novel Coronavirus to support appropriate environmental policy to reduce concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere, improving air quality and human health.

How does atmospheric circulation affect the diffusion of Covid-19 in polluted cities?

Abstract. This paper endeavors to explain how wind speed can affect the diffusion of COVID-19. The statistical analysis, based on data from Italy, suggests that high wind speed can reduce air pollution commingled with viral agents and as a consequence reduce infected individuals of COVID-19; moreover, results reveal that polluted cities with low wind speed have a greater number of infected individuals and total deaths also because of bad air quality. This study suggests the important role of atmospheric pollution and atmospheric circulation in the transmission dynamics of the novel Coronavirus to support appropriate environmental policy to reduce concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere, improving air quality and human health. Keywords. COVID-19, Air pollution, Environmental pollution, Wind speed, Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, Public health, Air quality, Environmental science. JEL. D81, D91, E71, G01, G41, H11, I18, Z18.

The presence of care homes and excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Italy.

This paper explores the relationship between the spatial distribution of excess deaths and the presence of care home facilities during the first wave of the COVID‐19 outbreak in Italy. Using registry‐based mortality data for Lombardy, one of the areas most severely hit by the pandemic we show that the presence of a care home in a municipality is associated with significantly higher excess death rates in the population. This effect appears to be driven by excess mortality in the elderly population of 70 years old and older. Our results are robust to controlling for the number of residents in each care home, suggesting that the presence of such facilities may have acted as one of factors contributing to the diffusion of COVID‐19 at the local level.

Particulate Matter Short-Term Exposition, Mobility Trips and COVID-19 Diffusion: A Correlation Analyses for the Italian Case Study at Urban Scale

The conjecture discussed in this paper was that the daily number of certified cases of COVID-19 is direct correlated to the average particular matter (PM) concentrations observed several days before when the contagions occurred (short-term effect), and this correlation is higher for areas with a higher average seasonal PM concentration, as a measure of prolonged exposure to a polluted environment (long-term effect). Furthermore, the correlations between the daily COVID-19 new cases and the mobility trips and those between the daily PM concentrations and mobility trips were also investigated. Correlation analyses were performed for the application case study consisting in 13 of the main Italian cities, through the national air quality and mobility monitoring systems. Data analyses showed that the mobility restrictions performed during the lockdown produced a significant improvement in air quality with an average PM concentrations reduction of about 15%, with maximum variations ranging between 25% and 42%. Estimation results showed a positive correlation (stronger for the more highly polluted cities) between the daily COVID-19 cases and both the daily PM concentrations and mobility trips measured about three weeks before, when probably the contagion occurred. The obtained results are original, and if confirmed in other studies, it would lay the groundwork for the definition of the main context variables which influenced the COVID-19 spread. The findings highlighted in this research also supported by the evidence in the literature and allow concluding that PM concentrations and mobility habits could be considered as potential early indicators of COVID-19 circulation in outdoor environments. However, the obtained results pose significant ethical questions about the proper urban and transportation planning; the most polluted cities have not only worst welfare for their citizens but, as highlighted in this research, could lead to a likely greater spread of current and future respiratory and/or pulmonary health emergencies. The lesson to be learned by this global pandemic will help planners to better preserve the air quality of our cities in the post-COVID-19 era.

Evaluating the Environmental Impacts of Personal Protective Equipment Use by the General Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Lombardy (Northern Italy)

The diffusion of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacted the whole world, changing the life habits of billions of people. These changes caused an abundant increase in personal protective equipment (PPE, e.g., masks and gloves) use by the general population, which can become a concerning issue of plastic pollution. This study aims to evaluate the negative effects of the abundant PPE use following the COVID-19 diffusion using the test site of the Lombardy region, an area highly affected by the pandemic. Population data were retrieved from national databases, and the COVID-19 national guidelines were considered to estimate the total use of PPEs during 2020. Then, the quantity of waste derived from their use was evaluated based on the weight of PPEs. As well, possible scenarios for 2021 were proposed based on 2020 estimations. The results suggested different negative effects of the diffusion of PPEs both on waste management and on the environment: The abundant increase in PPEs-derived waste caused an increase in terms of costs for management, and the potential direct spreading in the environment of these materials (especially masks) poses a serious threat for an increase in microplastics in water bodies. Following this evaluation, a careful choice regarding COVID-19 measures of containment should be performed especially by the general population, avoiding contagion diffusion and reducing the possible environmental impact derived from disposable PPE use.

Globalization, population flow and the spatial diffusion of COVID-19

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has swept the world since December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 has much to do with population flow and close human contacts. This paper demonstrates that the distribution of COVID-19 cases has close relation with the population flow and migration flow in the case of China. Rapid globalization has increased the volumes of migration and travelers in the world since the 1970s. If we reduce the number of air passengers to the level of 0.31 billion in 1970 by 13.6 times in the world, this may delay the same level of infections from being reached by about 3.5 weeks with reduced number of virus export and diffusion. But various authorities may only begin to take systematic and restrictive actions after the case number reaching certain “alarming level”, above “saved time” may not be effectively used as the “alarming level” may simply emerge later. The global production network is not able to meet unexpected surging demand of personal protective equipment and other medical essentials in the early stage of pandemic. Emergency plans are need to expand production capacity quickly to deal with future pandemic.

The Management of Glioblastomas during the SARS-CoV-19 Pandemic: A Narrative Overview

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and covid-19 diffusion are an international public health emergency. Patients with a history of cancer have a higher incidence of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and higher risk of severe COVID-19–associated events. Glioblastoma is considered to be among the most aggressive cancers,in this direction the value of treatment must be balanced with risks of exposure to infection, inducing immunosuppression and survival benefit. the objective of this review is to present all international consensus recommendation for the management of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) to inform clinical practice. During this pandemic crisis, careful patient selection that balances the risks and benefits of treatment is paramount to optimize the care of patients with glioblastoma in this setting.

Psychosocial consequences of the COVID-19 social isolation in the italian general population: Preliminary results

IntroductionAlthough some philosophers recognize in the loneliness an evolutionary existential process, a 2019 declaration of World Health Organization underlines the major health problem in the worldwide is the perception of state of loneliness. The feeling of loneliness linked to the social isolation (SI) or a lack of social opportunity activate a stressful condition associated to an increase of social dependence. This ‘learned social helplessness’ can be dangerous so that it is associated with an increased prevalence of suicides (Cacioppo and Cacioppo, 2018; Bzdok and Dunbar, 2020). Considering the impact of loneliness on the mental health we can assume that the COVID-19 forced SI affects the state of health and psychosocial well-being.ObjectivesTo evaluate the psychosocial impact of the SI in Italy.MethodsAn ad hoc survey have been sent from May to June 2020.ResultsThese results refer to the Italian survey of a multicenter investigation with partnership of Spain and Portugal universities. The investigation is in progress being a longitudinal study. Of the total 292 subjects investigated (age xM: 34; sD14.13), 118 (40,41%) had been in SI. Subjects forced into SI report more interference in the life satisfaction (p=0.003) though no more anxiety, depression and hostility we found in the SI group.ConclusionsDuring the phase 2 of Italian COVID-19 diffusion, we found an impact on the life satisfaction more than psychopathology. We can assume that the impact of mental health it may occur as the reduction in life satisfaction associated with forced SI continues.

The Italians in the Time of Coronavirus: Psychosocial Aspects of the Unexpected COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a worldwide public health emergency that forced the Italian Government to deliberate unprecedented actions, including quarantine, with a relevant impact on the population. The present study is one of the first Italian nationwide survey within the first period of the COVID-19 outbreak aimed to understand the social and psychological impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.Methods: An online survey collected information on sociodemographic data, history of direct or indirect contact with COVID-19, and other information concerning the COVID-19 emergency. The General Psychological Well-Being Index and a modified version of the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5, focused on the COVID-19 experience, assessed the respondents' general psychological condition.Results: Of 1,639 respondents equally distributed in the Italian territory, 5.1% reported PTSD symptomatology, and 48.2% evidenced lower psychological well-being linked to COVID-19 diffusion. Lower psychological well-being was significantly higher in women, younger than 50 years, and with health risk factors. Lower psychological well-being was also detected in individuals who did not know if they were infected, who have had direct exposure or were uncertain about their exposure to COVID-19, or who knew infected people. Regarding the social and behavioral consequences, respondents perceived worsening in demographic, economic, social, and relational conditions. Moreover, they reported increased film viewing, cookhouse time, social media use, and decreased physical activity.Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic appears to be a risk factor for psychological diseases in the Italian population, as previously reported in the Chinese people. About half of the respondents reported a significant psychological impact. Moreover, we confirmed the role of restraining measures that led to modify lifestyles, social perception, and confidence in the institutions. These results underline the need for further studies aimed to develop psychological interventions to minimize the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Italians in the Time of Coronavirus: Psychosocial Aspects of Unexpected COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a worldwide public health emergency, which forced the Italian Government to deliberate unprecedented actions, including quarantine, with a relevant impact on the population. The present study is the first Italian nationwide survey within the first period of the COVID-19 outbreak aimed to understand the social and psychological impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. Methods: An online survey collected information on socio-demographic data, history of direct or indirect contact with COVID-19, and other information concerning the COVID-19 emergency. The General Psychological Well-Being Index and a modified version of the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 focused on COVID-19 experience assessed the general psychological condition of the respondents.Findings: Of 1639 respondents equally distributed in the Italian territory, 5.1% reported PTSD symptomatology, and 48.2% evidenced lower psychological well-being linked to COVID-19 diffusion. Lower psychological well-being was significantly higher in women, younger than 50 years old, and with health risk factors. Lower psychological well-being was also detected in individuals who did not know if they were infected, who have had direct exposure or were uncertain about their exposure to COVID-19, or who knew people affected.Regarding the social and behavioral consequences, respondents perceived worsening in demographic, economic, social, and relational conditions, and reported an increase in film viewing, cookhouse time, using social media, and a decrease in physical activity.Interpretation: COVID-19 pandemic appears to be a risk factor for psychological diseases in the Italian population, as previously reported in the Chinese population. About half of the respondents reported a significant psychological impact. Moreover, we confirmed the role of restraining measures that have to allow modifying lifestyles, social perception, and confidence in the institutions.These results underline the need for further studies aimed to develop psychological interventions to minimize the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.Funding Statement: None.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: Expedited ethics approval was obtained from the Ethics Committee of the Department of Dynamic and Clinical Psychology of “Sapienza” University of Rome (protocol number: 0000266). The study is conformed to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. All respondents provided electronic informed consent before starting the investigation.

Perception of Risk, Self-Efficacy and Social Trust during the Diffusion of Covid-19 in Italy.

The Coronavirus pandemic has affected the lives of people all over the world. The perception of risk and people’s consequent behaviour during a pandemic are very complex and are affected by multiple cultural and psychological factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the change in risk perception, perceived self-efficacy and the perceived trust in the behaviour of others, the decisions of health authorities and government provisions, as well as the variation of self-restraint behaviours during the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy. We used a convenience sample of 707 university students (Mage = 22.99; SD = 4.01) from a central area of Italy. Participants freely joined the research by answering an online questionnaire between February and March 2020. Three time intervals defined by the progressive containment measures implemented by the Italian Government were considered. Main outcome measures were the Generalized Self-Efficacy Scale, the Risk Perception Index, the Index of Self-restraint Behaviours, and Institutional and Interpersonal Trust Measures. Results confirmed that significant changes in the time progression have occurred in the perception of risk, in the perception of individual self-efficacy, in the value attributed to social responsibility, in interpersonal trust and in trust in health authorities. The study also identified the participants’ personality traits and locus of control as predictors (positive and negative) of perceived self-efficacy and tested a mediation model of trust on the effect of risk perception on self-restraint intentions.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Diffusion of Fake News through Social Media in the Arab World

Social media platforms are among the most widely used sources of information in the world. During the COVID-19 Pandemic, the public needs access to timely and reliable information about the disease symptoms and their prevention. Thus, this study aims to determine the respondents’ perception of their trust level in the information published on social networking sites regarding the coronavirus. In addition, it aims to identify the most popular social media sites spreading rumors related to coronavirus. Further, it explores the respondents’ interaction with news and information relating to coronavirus published on social media. A non-probability sampling technique was used. The questionnaire was administered to respondents through the internet; posted on social media accounts, internet newsgroups, discussion groups, and emails sent to colleagues and friends to respond to the questionnaire. A total of 1274 self-selected cases from Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates were investigated. This study revealed that respondents have more confidence in the information published by Twitter, Followed by Instagram, YouTube, WhatsApp, Snapchat, and Facebook. However, they have less confidence in the information published by Tik Tok or other networks. Regarding spreading rumors, the study found that the most popular social networking platform spreading rumors related to coronavirus is WhatsApp. Further, the study found that respondents are interactive with all news and information of coronavirus published on social media.

Performance comparison of heat recovery systems to reduce viral contagion in indoor environments.

Strong ventilation increments are currently suggested for containing the airborne diffusion of COVID-19 in indoor environments. However, it can involve an unacceptable growing of energy consumption. Therefore, maximum care must be addressed to improve efficiency of ventilation heat recovery (VHR). For this purpose, this paper investigates the opportunity of a technical solution. Consisting in adding downstream of the most diffuse heat recuperator, a heat pump using exhaust air as a cold source. An autonomous high efficiency air handling unit (HEAHU) was modelled for a school application. By simulation a performance comparison was carried on with two alternative systems based only on an exhaust air heat pump (EAHP) or on a heat recuperator for different weather conditions. Results indicated that the milder climate strongly penalizes heat recuperator and this fact deeply influences the conclusions. HEAHU saving compared to energy consumption of only heat recuperator is between 31% and 46%. For EAHP this saving varies from 2.5% to 48%. Only with a milder climate, EAHP presents a lightly greater saving than HEAHU. Heat pump technology looks to be very performing to foster the efficiency of VHR, especially in presence of high ventilation rates.

Seroprevalence of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM among Adults over 65 Years Old in the South of Italy.

SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic betacoronavirus associated with worldwide transmission of COVID-19 disease. By the beginning of March, WHO reported about 113,820,000 confirmed cases including more than 2,527,000 deaths all over the world. However, the true extent of virus circulation or its real infection/fatality ratio is not well-estimated due to the huge portion of asymptomatic infections. In this observational study, we have estimated the prevalence of specific immunoglobulin M and G directed towards SARS-CoV-2 antigen in a cohort of 1383 adult volunteers aged over 65 years old, living in the district of Benevento, in the South of Italy. Serological screening was carried out on capillary blood in September 2020, seven months after pandemic outbreak in Italy, to evaluate virus circulation and antibody response among elderly adults, in which severe symptoms due to viral infection are more common. The overall seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 4.70% (CI 3.70%–5.95%) with no statistically significant differences between sexes. Among these, 69.69% (CI 55.61%–77.80%) tested positive to IgM, 23.08% (CI 14.51%–34.64%) to IgG and 9.23% (CI 4.30%–18.71%) was positive for both. All patients that were positive to IgM underwent molecular testing through RT-qPCR on oral-rhino pharyngeal swabs and only one specimen was positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection. Instead, the presence of IgG from screened volunteers was confirmed by re-testing serum samples using both an ELISA assay validated for in vitro diagnostic use (IVD) and a recently published synthetic peptide-based ELISA assay. In conclusion, our report suggests that (1) early restrictions were successful in limiting COVID-19 diffusion in the district of Benevento; (2) rapid serological analysis is an ideal testing for both determining real seroprevalence and massive screening, whereas detection of viral RNA remains a gold standard for identification of infected patients; (3) even among people without COVID-19 related symptoms, the antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 antigens has individual features.

The activity of an Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Division during the pandemic diffusion of COVID-19

The recent pandemic diffusion of COVID-19 has dramatically changed the routine activity of entire hospitals all over the world. in some regions such as Northern Italy both outpatient and surgical activity of hospitals had to be completely modified to support the enormous quantity of COVID-19 patients' admissions and to limit the diffusion of the novel Coronavirus. As for maxillofacial surgery departments, in such regions the routine activity may have been reduced to manage urgencies. The aim of this article was to present the changed activity of an Italian Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Division, due to the current world emergency. © 2020 edizioni minerva medica.

Relations between Air Quality and Covid-19 Lockdown Measures in Valencia, Spain.

The set of measures to contain the diffusion of COVID-19 instituted by the European governments gave an unparalleled opportunity to improve our understanding of the transport and industrial sectors’ contribution to urban air pollution. The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of the lockdown measures on air quality and pollutant emissions in Valencia, Spain. For this reason, we determined if there was a significant difference in the concentration levels of different particulate matter (PM) sizes, PM10, PM2.5, and NOx, NO2, NO, and O3, between the period of restrictions in 2020 and the same period in 2019. Our findings indicated that PM pollutant levels during the lockdown period were significantly different from the same period of the previous year, even if there is variability in the different local areas. The highest variations reduction in the PM10 and PM2.5 levels were observed for the València Centre, València Avd Francia, and València Pista de Silla (all of the urban traffic type) in which there was a reduction of 58%–42%, 56%–53%, and 60%–41% respectively. Moreover, consistent with recent studies, we observed a significant reduction in nitric oxide levels in all the air monitoring stations. In all seven monitoring stations, it was observed, in 2020, NOx, NO2, and NO concentrations decreased by 48.5%–49.8%–46.2%, 62.1%–67.4%–45.7%, 37.4%–35.7%–35.3%, 60.7%–67.7%–47.1%, 65.5%–65.8%–63.5%, 60.0%–64.5%–41.3%, and 60.4%–61.6%–52.5%, respectively. Lastly, overall O3 levels decreased during the lockdown period, although this phenomenon was more closely related to weather conditions. Overall, no significant differences were observed between the meteorological conditions in 2019 and 2020. Our findings suggest that further studies on the effect of human activities on air quality are needed and encourage the adoption of a holistic approach to improve urban air quality.

COVID-19 Spatial Diffusion: A Markovian Agent-Based Model

We applied a flexible modeling technique capable of representing dynamics of large populations interacting in space and time, namely Markovian Agents, to study the evolution of COVID-19 in Italy. Our purpose was to show that this modeling approach, that is based on mean field analysis models, provides good performances in describing the diffusion of phenomena, like COVID-19. The paper describes the application of this modeling approach to the Italian scenario and results are validated against real data available about the Italian official documentation of the diffusion of COVID-19. The model of each agent is organized similarly to what largely established in literature in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) family of approaches. Results match the main events taken by the Italian government and their effects.

A review of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and airborne particulates and its use for virus spreading surveillance

According to the WHO, on October 16, 2020, the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, reached 235 countries and territories, and resulting in more than 39 million confirmed cases and 1.09 million deaths globally. Monitoring of the virus outbreak is one of the main activities pursued to limiting the number of infected people and decreasing the number of deaths that have caused high pressure on the health care, social, and economic systems of different countries. Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE), already adopted for the surveillance of life style and health conditions of communities, shows interesting features for the monitoring of the COVID-19 diffusion. Together with wastewater, the analysis of airborne particles has been recently suggested as another useful tool for detecting the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in given areas. The present review reports the status of research currently performed concerning the monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 spreading by WBE and airborne particles. The former have been more investigated, whereas the latter is still at a very early stage, with a limited number of very recent studies. Nevertheless, the main results highlights in both cases necessitate more research activity for better understating and defining the biomarkers and the related sampling and analysis procedures to be used for this important aim.

A comparative study between the incidence and epidemiological features of Influenza-Like Illness and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Italian epicenter (Lombardy)

IntroductionIn Lombardy, the influenza surveillance system relies on sentinel physicians that weekly report data on the number of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) and a part of them also collect nasopharyngeal samples for virologic analyses. This study aims at comparing the ILI incidence of 2019–2020 influenza season with the incidence of COVID-19 cases in order to better understand the current epidemic and to evaluate whether the implementation of ILI surveillance system could succeed in early detection and monitoring of COVID-19 diffusion. MethodsThe distribution of ILI cases in the seasons 2017–2018, 2018–2019 and 2019–2020 was taken in consideration and the curve trends were compared and analyzed according to geographical areas, age groups and time differences. ResultsThe curve trends presented a similar pattern up to the 9th week; in fact, a reduction in the ILI incidence rate was observed in the 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 season but in the 2019–2020 an increase in the reported ILI emerged. The relation between the numbers reported by 2019–2020 ILI surveillance and those reported for COVID-19 is supported by the curve trends, the correspondence between age groups, the correspondence by geographical location, and also by the results of the nasopharyngeal swab tests performed. DiscussionThe influenza surveillance system is an effective tool for early detection of COVID-19. It may provide timely and high-quality data evaluating the SARS-CoV-2 burden among population with ILI. Implementation of the system has to be prioritized in order to identify any future novel respiratory pathogen with pandemic potential.