Abstract
The conjecture discussed in this paper was that the daily number of certified cases of COVID-19 is direct correlated to the average particular matter (PM) concentrations observed several days before when the contagions occurred (short-term effect), and this correlation is higher for areas with a higher average seasonal PM concentration, as a measure of prolonged exposure to a polluted environment (long-term effect). Furthermore, the correlations between the daily COVID-19 new cases and the mobility trips and those between the daily PM concentrations and mobility trips were also investigated. Correlation analyses were performed for the application case study consisting in 13 of the main Italian cities, through the national air quality and mobility monitoring systems. Data analyses showed that the mobility restrictions performed during the lockdown produced a significant improvement in air quality with an average PM concentrations reduction of about 15%, with maximum variations ranging between 25% and 42%. Estimation results showed a positive correlation (stronger for the more highly polluted cities) between the daily COVID-19 cases and both the daily PM concentrations and mobility trips measured about three weeks before, when probably the contagion occurred. The obtained results are original, and if confirmed in other studies, it would lay the groundwork for the definition of the main context variables which influenced the COVID-19 spread. The findings highlighted in this research also supported by the evidence in the literature and allow concluding that PM concentrations and mobility habits could be considered as potential early indicators of COVID-19 circulation in outdoor environments. However, the obtained results pose significant ethical questions about the proper urban and transportation planning; the most polluted cities have not only worst welfare for their citizens but, as highlighted in this research, could lead to a likely greater spread of current and future respiratory and/or pulmonary health emergencies. The lesson to be learned by this global pandemic will help planners to better preserve the air quality of our cities in the post-COVID-19 era.
Highlights
The daily COVID-19 new cases sourced from the Italian Ministry of Health (2020) [43]; the Italian national census data from ISTAT (2020) [44]; the PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations measured by the Italian Regional Environmental
The northern cities are those with higher particular matter (PM) concentrations, with a colder and wetter climate; the cities in the south, instead, and especially those located on the coast have a warmer climate with a lower average seasonal PM pollution; The analysis time period considered ranged from 1 February to 15 August 2020, which is the period of the first wave of the virus spreading in Italy, from the first case of coronavirus in the Province of Milan up to the end of its diffusion with less than five hundred daily new cases at a national level
The data analyses performed for the current case study showed how the mobility restrictions performed during the lockdown produced a significant increase in air quality with an average reduction of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations of about 15%, with maximum reductions ranging between 25% and 42%
Summary
The year 2020 will probably be remembered as the year of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was caused by the pathogen SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 [1] which, in December 2019, produced a cluster of pneumonia cases in the city of Wuhan in China. The World Health Organization (WHO) at the end of January. 2020 declared the COVID-19 epidemic as a public health emergency and lately, in March. In the spring of 2020, when in Europe the first wave of the massive virus diffusion was almost stopped, a total of about 4 million of cases and 283 thousand of deaths were confirmed worldwide [3]. Despite the fact that the risk of a second wave has already been announced in June by researchers [4,5], this outbreak
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