Exploring the theoretical logic, development characteristics and improvement paths of the deep coupling of innovation chains and industrial chains (two-chain) is of great importance for building a modern industrial system and developing productive forces. However, empirical evidence on the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of two-chain coupling is still lacking. In this study, the degree of coupling coordination model is applied to assess the degree of two-chain coupling in China using provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022. In addition, spatial analysis is applied to investigate the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the variables in question. On this basis, the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method is applied to identify influential factors. The results indicate that: (1) Temporally, the coupling level of the two-chain shows a consistent upward trend and gradually develops a distribution pattern characterized by high values in the east and weak values in the west. (2) Spatially, there is a significant positive spatial correlation between the two-chain coupling. (3) In terms of drivers, the increase in two-chain coupling is attributed to multiple factors. Three models can be identified: human-driven, capital-driven and information-driven, which are influenced by the cooperation between government and market. The novelty of this article lies in its exploration of the theoretical logic and developmental characteristics of two-chain coupling, while empirically demonstrating its driving factors. This study provides a new perspective for governments and relevant departments to improve two-chain linkages and promote economic development.
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