GDP Growth In Countries Research Articles

Global Shocks and Local Impacts: A CGE Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Pakistan's Wheat Sector

Wheat is one of the most important and vital sectors of Pakistan adding around 2% to the country's GDP growth each year. The crop has been in turmoil for the past four years. The primary drivers of this turmoil are the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have impacted wheat production. The current study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model focusing on the individual and combined effects of these two global shock scenarios. The study initiates by exploring the baseline scenario which assumes that there is no existence of Covid-19 or Russia Ukraine Conflict, then the results are calculated firstly for the productivity loss due to pandemic and then due to the Russian Ukraine conflict. Finally, both the productivity shocks are combined to study the shared effect of both the losses. The results indicate that the sector has experienced a significant loss, with spillover effects on its subsidiaries, including flour mills, bakery and confectionary industries, animal feed industries, and processed food industries. The labor and export markets shocks are also simulated highlighting the loss in both sectors attributing to disrupted supply chains and restrictions in covid nineteen and high dependency on Ukraine and Russia wheat imports. Welfare analysis has also been done for all the four scenarios to capture the welfare losses faced in the previous 4 years and the results are compared to the baseline scenario to compare the damage. To mitigate these losses, two policy scenarios are proposed: an expansionary fiscal policy and increased subsidies, followed by increased tariffs and a shift towards locally produced wheat instead of relying on imports.

Clean energy in Latin America: the case of Mexico

The subject of the study is clean energy in Latin American countries, the object of the study is renewable energy sources in Mexico. The purpose of the study is to determine the role of renewable energy sources in the economic development of Latin American countries using the example of Mexico. The author examines in detail such aspects of the topic as the development of alternative energy sources in Mexico, its impact on the country's GDP growth rate; factors affecting the production of clean energy in Latin America on the example of Mexico. Special attention is paid to the opportunities that open up to the country due to the active transformation of the Mexican energy complex. In addition, the author examines alternative energy sources and their impact on the economic development of the Latin American region using the example of Mexico. In order to achieve this goal, general scientific methods of systematic and comparative analysis, the method of generalization, methods of grouping and classifying quantitative and qualitative data, methods of quantitative data analysis were used. The main conclusions of the study are that today the production of renewable energy sources has little effect on the volume of the Mexican economy, but there is an active development of clean energy sources in Mexico, and in general, throughout the Latin American region. This is proved by the econometric model constructed by the author. The model shows which source of clean energy is developing at the fastest pace and which sources account for the bulk of production. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that the author analyzes how the development of alternative energy sources in Mexico affects the country's GDP growth rate. In addition, the study identified an alternative energy source that has a greater impact on the economic development of the country, as well as identified factors affecting the production of clean energy in Latin American countries, using the example of Mexico.

Research on Influencing Factors of the Real Estate Market in Beijing

As a large-scale real estate industry, the real estate industry plays an important role in regulating the world economy. As a pillar industry in my countrys development, it plays an important role in promoting my country's GDP growth. Consumption and investment demand for real estate also have a significant impact on overall consumer demand. Many scholars at home and abroad have conducted relevant research on real estate demand factors. This article uses annual data from the China Bureau of Statistics and Beijing, selects Beijings GDP, per capita disposable income of all residents, etc. as explanatory variables, and uses the commercial housing sales area sarea as the explained variable. A multiple regression model was established to analyze the influencing factors of Beijing's real estate market demand. The results show that policy, income, population and housing price factors have a significant impact on demand. Among them, GDP, population change, and policy dummy variable factors have a positive impact, while housing prices and per capita income have a negative impact. Based on the conclusion, this article puts forward suggestions for narrowing the income gap, further curbing real estate speculation, maintaining a balance between supply and demand, paying attention to policy regulation, and using precise and powerful policies to regulate the entire industry, which has served as a reference for the development of the real estate industry.

Spillover effect of China's economic development on countries along “Maritime Silk Road” – Based on vector auto regression

Since the cooperation initiative of Maritime Silk Road was put forward, more and more countries and regions have joined maritime silk road trade. The shift of economic growth rate in China and the decline in import and export trade will inevitably have a certain impact on the economic growth of countries and regions along this route. Based on this, this study first analyzed the transmission channels of economic volatility spillover effects. And a transnational panel model and global vector auto-regression are used to study the spillover effect of China's economic development on economic variables of countries and regions along this line. After the 15th quarter, one standard deviation of China's real GDP has a significant positive impact on the real GDP of East Asian countries by 0.597%, averagely. And the autoregressive coefficient of economic spillover effecting of China's economic growth on these countries along Maritime Silk Road is 0.244, which is significant at 1%, indicating that the spillover effect is significant. The regression coefficient of spillover effect of China's economic development on GDP growth in countries along this route is 0.472, which is significant at 1%. And the regression coefficient of spillover effect of China's economic development on trade balance of countries along this line is 0.967, with a significance level of 1%. Based on these research results, suggestions are proposed in this study, China should first optimize its trade structure with countries and regions along the route, and customize different foreign trade policies based on the specific characteristics of countries along the route. While developing and improving trade relations with countries and regions along the route, we will further achieve outward direct investment in these countries and regions, reducing the negative impact of economic fluctuations on China's economic development. The research aims to promote the quality improvement of China's economic development and growth, and achieve win-win cooperation among countries along the Maritime Silk Road.

Design of Multiple Ontology Based Agro Knowledge Mining Model

Farming is regarded as a major industry in India, accounting for 17% of the country's GDP growth. Agriculture employs 60% of the population hence it is considered an important sector in India. The important factors for agriculture are pest management, disease prevention, irrigation management, soil mineral composition, crop management, location, and the season in which the crop is grown. Hence all this information along with the techniques are well known only by the experienced farmers. Hence it is important to create an agro knowledge management system. As a result, this work makes an attempt to develop a multiple ontology-based agro knowledge management system. The designed system consists of agriculture information related to attributes of soil mineral, moisture, season, location, crop type, and temperature. It consists of multiple ontologies such as soil ontology, crop ontology, location ontology, and crop season ontology to provide agronomy knowledge. Soil ontology is premeditated to classify the soil type in a hierarchical order while crop ontology classifies the crop type, location ontology classifies locations suitable for different crop types and finally, crop season ontology classifies the season that is suitable for different crops. A rule base is built to develop the knowledge base and to validate the truthfulness of the knowledge base. Visualization of a knowledge base is carried out for better understanding and decision-making.

Economic Effect of Globalization on Island of Mauritius: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

This study analyzes the effect of economic globalization on Mauritius from 1981 to 2019 using the ARDL approach. Due to their distinct economic characteristics, isolated island economies react differently to globalization than other countries. Our study investigates whether Mauritius's global trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have an impact on the country's GDP growth. The findings suggest that in the short run, FDI inflows are an impetus for the growth of GDP, while in the long term, the opposite occurs. Likewise, the long-term relationship between global trade and GDP growth concluded with the same result. In the light of our findings, the Government of Mauritius needs to focus on encouraging global FDI using various economic administrative measures and taking initiatives for enhancing the country’s global trade.

KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVER AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY ACROSS COUNTRIES: ROLE OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT

The general objective is to evaluate the impact of financial development on the connections between knowledge spillover and Total factor productivity (TFP). By using CS_ARDL econometric techniques the results shows that knowledge spillover promotes productivity expansion, as shown by the baseline regression, which holds true regardless of the structural and institutional elements included in the models. Moreover, our study hypothesis, that knowledge spillover affects TFP in nations with better financial system, is corroborated by our results. The findings indicate that the effects of knowledge spillover and financial development on TFP are mutually reinforcing. These results validate the idea that countries better financial system to successfully absorb foreign R&D will obtain the greatest benefits from knowledge spillover. According to the results, the disparities in national wealth shown over the past two decades may be the result of complementing policies adopted by different nations. Thus, greater total factor productivity and/or economic growth necessitate policy complementarity. A rise in knowledge spillover would not improve TFP and/or GDP growth in countries that have not implemented complementary reforms. Since these conditions are necessary for these countries to benefit fully from knowledge spillover, failing to provide them will result in a loss of potential gains. Keywords: Knowledge Spillovers; Total Factor Productivity; Financial Development

Are International Banks Different? Evidence on Bank Performance and Strategy

This paper provides evidence on how bank performance and strategies vary with the degree of bank internationalization using data for 113 countries during 2000–15. Bank internationalization is associated with lower valuations and lower returns on equity. After the global financial crisis, international banks were revalued particularly if they had stable funding in the form of deposits and if they had more generous deposit insurance coverage. For international banks headquartered in developing countries, bank internationalization is related negatively with the cyclicality of their domestic credit growth with respect to home country GDP growth, smoothing local downturns. In contrast, if the international bank is from a high-income country investing in a developing country, its subsidiary bank lending is relatively procyclical, which can be destabilizing.

The contribution of the Visegrad four automotive industry to economic growth

In the countries of the Visegrad Four (V4) (Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia), significant and modern car production capacities were built due to foreign direct investment inflows. According to the results of mainstream research, the automotive industry can make a substantial contribution to the growth of the GDP of the affected national economy. In the V4 countries, the opposite has taken place in the automotive industry over the past decade. Automotive production increased in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia but decreased in Poland. The study seeks to answer the question of the close relationship between automotive output and changes in GDP in the countries concerned. The correlation calculation results show that the automotive industry has a powerfully positive effect on GDP growth in countries where the sector's contribution is significant and growing dynamically.

What effect does the Monetary Policy of Ghana have on the country's GDP growth? From 1980 to 2015, a retrospective time series analysis

What effect does the Monetary Policy of Ghana have on the country's GDP growth? From 1980 to 2015, a retrospective time series analysis

Factors Influencing Collaboration in Creative Industries

The field of creative industries is an area that has recently become the subject of gradually increasing scientific interest. This growing attention is mainly linked to the fact that they are inherently associated with the modern way of life, economic development, and innovation. At the same time, the creative industries are also perceived as a sustainable concept of modern development. In addition to the direct positive effects on the country's GDP growth, the reduction of unemployment, the creation of social cohesion among the population, the promotion of creativity and innovation, the creative industries also have additional positive outcomes in the form of the so-called positive spillover effects. We consider it necessary to examine the creative industries not only from a macroeconomic or regional development point of view, which are the prevailing approaches to their research but also from a microeconomic point of view. Only by understanding the internal logic of companies in creative industries will it be possible to understand the benefits and functionality of their internal processes. The paper aims to analyse the influence of selected factors on a company's willingness to collaborate. Because through such collaboration, it is possible to effectively share knowledge and experience in this sector of the economy, which impacts companies' innovative performance. The research in this paper is based on a statistical analysis of data obtained from the publishing industry, a subsector of the creative industries. The results show a positive impact of strategic management's existence on the company's willingness to collaborate with other companies and institutions, especially with foreign, public, and multinational companies. The influence of a more liberal management approach on its willingness to cooperate with its surroundings was not confirmed in the analysis. The validity of these results must also be verified in other subsectors of the creative industries, as the creative industries cannot be considered a homogeneous sector, given the large number of subsectors they cover.

TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN UKRAINE AT THE PRESENT STAGE

The article considers the issue of foreign economic activity (FEA) of Ukraine. Today, the Ukrainian economy is deeply integrated into the global system of international division of labor both as a seller and as a buyer of goods and services. In such circumstances, the issue of foreign trade is extremely important for economic development and that is why the development of such an area as foreign economic activity is one of the main tasks assigned to the state bodies of our state. In this work, in order to reveal the main trends in foreign economic activity at the present stage, the dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services for the period 2016-2020 was analyzed, the commodity structure of exports and imports of goods and services and the most influential partner countries. Foreign trade significantly affects the growth of the country's GDP as the main source of income for financial entities. Scholars and practitioners have proven that the export-import activity of the state has a positive impact on the country's GDP growth, especially in conditions of high productivity and competitiveness of domestic products. The results of this study were obtained through the collection and analysis of analytical information posted on the official website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (Gosstat) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine (Ministry of Economy), and other scientific publications. The research allowed to identify the main problems that have a negative impact on the development of export-import operations and, as a result, the economy as a whole and offer some recommendations for further development and improvement of the current state of foreign economic activity of domestic enterprises and, in general, states.

Circular Economy: Tendencies and Development Perspectives

The research represents the analysis of the circular economy and its essential characteristics of circular economy in the modern world. The circular economy makes it possible to "detach" the country's GDP growth from the consumption of natural resources and environmental pollution. It explains how the circular economy should stimulate sustainable development and inclusion in the system of Sustainable Development Goals. The research presents how the circular economy can ensure labor productivity, efficient environmental and energy conservation, and the creation of new jobs. It analyzes principles and tools of the circular economy. This research shows how economies should move from the current linear take, make, use, dispose practice to reuse and longer product life. It shows how current business models change and what principles are used to develop a circular economy. It examines the circular approaches based on the 3-R principle: Reduce: reduce resource use and prioritize renewable materials; Reuse: make the most of the products; Recycle: recover by-products and waste for further use in the economy. The research shows how seven key tools of the circular economy may be applied. It reveals the international experience in implementing the circular economy principles. The research describes the benefits that the transition to a circular economy brings. It analyses major circular economy barriers, such as financial, social, and technical. The research distinguishes the benefits of a circular economy. They include a decrease in costs, a cleaner and safer environment, sensitive use of natural resources, new job creation, reducing dependence on imports. This research presents the examples of Norrköping Industrial Symbiosis Network in Sweden, Latvia’s circularity business models.

How the Global and Gulf Financial Crises Affected Pakistan: Ten‐year Review0

ABSTRACTWe show that the impact of global financial crisis (GFC) on Pakistan's economy mainly transmitted through Gulf Financial Crisis (GCC). In this regard, we assess the effects of both the global and Gulf financial crises on remittances, workers' emigration, return migration, national savings and foreign investment. Applying Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) before (2000–07) and after GFC (2008–18), we demonstrate that Pakistan witnessed remarkably low FDI inflows and labour force emigration along with higher return migration rates after the crises. Investment from the UAE and other Gulf countries declined eightfold immediate after the global financial crisis, contributing considerably to the decline of the country's GDP growth during 2008–10. There was significant curtailment in emigration volumes and spurts in return migration after 2012, because of the Gulf oil price crisis. The positive trend in remittances until 2015 seems to be influenced by post‐9/11 anti‐money laundering legislation and depreciation of the rupee.

Impacts of climate change policies worldwide on the Russian economy

ABSTRACT Because the Russian economy relies heavily on exports of fossil fuels, the primary source of human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it may be adversely impacted by Paris Agreement-based climate policies that target reductions in GHG emissions. Applying the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to assess the impacts on the Russian economy of the efforts of the main importers of Russian fossil fuels to follow the global goals of the Paris Agreement, we project that climate-related actions outside of Russia will lower the country's GDP growth rate by about one-half of a percentage point. The Paris Agreement is also expected to raise Russia's risks of facing market barriers for its exports of energy-intensive goods, and of falling behind in the development of low-carbon energy technologies that most of the world is increasingly adopting. Key policy insights Regardless of its domestic emissions reduction efforts, Russia will not be able to sustain its current trajectory of fossil fuel export-based development due to climate policies worldwide. To address the challenge of climate-related energy transition, Russia needs a new comprehensive development strategy that accounts for the post-Paris Agreement global energy landscape. The key elements of such a strategy include diversification of the economy, moving to low-carbon energy sources, and investing in human capital development. Our diversification scenarios show that redistribution of income from the energy sector to the development of human capital would benefit the economy. The largest impact of investment re-orientation from the fossil fuel sector would be on manufacturing, services, agriculture and food production.

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries

Digital economy generally refers to a digital technology-based economy. The embrace of digital economy is transforming a nation's economic growth. Countries blessed with successful digitisation will improve their economic performance; hence, it could increase country's GDP growth. In this respect, ASEAN-5 countries becoming a major economic force driver in Asia as well as to the global growth. The goal of this research is therefore to investigate the relationship between ICT and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries over the 2003 to 2018 study period. Using static and dynamic panel data estimation, results shows that fixed telephone line subscription has the greatest impact on ICT on economic growth. The findings suggest countries shall focus on the innovation of ICT especially on the mobile-cellular telephone subscription and fixed telephone line subscription to achieve economic growth. Investments in ICT infrastructure foster co-operation in ICT technology as well as advancing ICT particularly on the rise in jobs in the ICT sector, transforming government services into digital form to enhance economic growth in the country.

PROBLEMS OF ESTABLISHING SMALL BUSINESSES WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF VISUALLY IMPAIRED PERSONS

Development of a market economy requires active participation of individuals in the economy. In addition, the ability of the visually impaired to operate in small businesses, along with the adoption of social protection by the state, is important for improving the economic well-being of blind people. At the same time, it will have a positive impact on the country's GDP growth. The object of scientific research is the visually impaired Subject of scientific researches - Directions for the organization and financing of small business entities with disabilities in Uzbekistan Scientific novelty of the research: - Proposals for the establishment of a legal and regulatory framework that will enable blind people with disabilities to engage in entrepreneurship; - The importance of establishing training centers by state or non-government non-profit organizations for vocational training for the visually impaired is revealed; - Opportunities for establishment and financing of business incubators for small businesses operating under or acting as subcontractors in large business entities are highlighted.

Global Expertise of Financial Analysts

We describe the challenges of forecasting earnings in a globally interconnected marketplace, and we document inefficient use of information regarding foreign country exposures and expected country GDP growth at the consensus and individual forecast levels. A country’s proximity to the US, importance to the firm, and visibility, as well as availability of more precise information about foreign country exposures, contribute to consensus forecast efficiency. We identify a dimension of individual analyst global expertise — similarity in exposure between the firm and the rest of the firms in the analyst portfolio — and show that it contributes to forecast efficiency, accuracy, and informativeness and that it helps the analyst achieve the coveted all-star rank, suggesting that globalization not only poses a challenge but also creates an opportunity for research providers and analysts to distinguish themselves.

The Window of Opportunities and Corporate Financing Choices in Asian Developing Countries

The paper finds that the debt deficit and window of opportunities significantly affect firms’ financing decisions in developing Asia. Firms tend to increase the probability of issuing pure debt rather than other financing sources if room to the optimal level of debt is still available. While an expansion of country GDP growth and better market performance brings good opportunities for firms to issue equity or a strategy of both debt and equity, a reduction in the cost of debt supports pure debt issuance. Moreover, the paper also provides evidence which indicates that pure debt issuance is dominant compared to other financing choices in Asian developing countries, and this dominance becomes more significant after the financial crisis.

Trade policy and Green Growth

Nowadays, Limited Natural resources and population Growth demanded a fundamental change in economic policy. This paper tried to assess the link between economic growth especially green growth and Trade policy in the form of economic openness. The Study conducted by using survey literature and empiric. The outcomes of theoretical study of literature and empirical finding using panel data showed a significant effect of openness trade policy on Green GDP growth of countries.