Spillover effect of China's economic development on countries along “Maritime Silk Road” – Based on vector auto regression

Abstract

Since the cooperation initiative of Maritime Silk Road was put forward, more and more countries and regions have joined maritime silk road trade. The shift of economic growth rate in China and the decline in import and export trade will inevitably have a certain impact on the economic growth of countries and regions along this route. Based on this, this study first analyzed the transmission channels of economic volatility spillover effects. And a transnational panel model and global vector auto-regression are used to study the spillover effect of China's economic development on economic variables of countries and regions along this line. After the 15th quarter, one standard deviation of China's real GDP has a significant positive impact on the real GDP of East Asian countries by 0.597%, averagely. And the autoregressive coefficient of economic spillover effecting of China's economic growth on these countries along Maritime Silk Road is 0.244, which is significant at 1%, indicating that the spillover effect is significant. The regression coefficient of spillover effect of China's economic development on GDP growth in countries along this route is 0.472, which is significant at 1%. And the regression coefficient of spillover effect of China's economic development on trade balance of countries along this line is 0.967, with a significance level of 1%. Based on these research results, suggestions are proposed in this study, China should first optimize its trade structure with countries and regions along the route, and customize different foreign trade policies based on the specific characteristics of countries along the route. While developing and improving trade relations with countries and regions along the route, we will further achieve outward direct investment in these countries and regions, reducing the negative impact of economic fluctuations on China's economic development. The research aims to promote the quality improvement of China's economic development and growth, and achieve win-win cooperation among countries along the Maritime Silk Road.