Currencies Of Countries Research Articles

Policy Signaling and Foreign Electoral Uncertainty: Implications for Currency Markets

AbstractThis paper examines the effects of foreign electoral shocks on currency markets. I develop a theory of signaling and uncertainty to explain why elections in countries with close economic ties should affect exchange rates. Methodologically, this paper focuses on several case studies, with the 2016 US election as a central case. I utilize an event analysis framework to measure the impact of the election on the Mexican peso by exploiting the plausible exogeneity of Donald Trump's tweets. I also measure changes in the peso using Trump's predicted chance of winning the election and show that the peso is weakest when Trump has the highest chance of winning the election. In addition, I include a series of robustness checks and analyses of other notable recent cases when electoral uncertainty affected currencies in other countries, including the 2018 Brazilian election. The results quantify the effect of foreign elections on exchange rates, building on the existing literature that focuses on how domestic elections shape currency markets. I conclude with a discussion of the external validity of the phenomenon demonstrated by the cases in the paper, charting future research on the topic and outlining ways to extend the findings.

The existence and severity of the forward premium puzzle during tranquil and turbulent periods: Developed versus developing country currencies

In this paper we investigate the forward premium bias (FPB) puzzle for a number of developed and developing country currencies. Our main objective is to examine the possible variations in the existence and severity of the bias for different currency sets over two sample periods which can be categorized as calm and turbulent periods. We find significant evidence that the FBP tend to vary over time and across currency sets. We also find that the global financial crisis has been a turning point in the variation of the existence and severity of the bias for our currency sets. The results show that different currency sets have been affected by the crisis in different patterns. While the bias disappeared prominently for developed country currencies with the peak of the crisis, it survived and became more pronounced for some high-yielding developing country currencies. The results imply that the FPB is time-varying and its existence and severity vary across and within currency sets depending on the time period under consideration. Overall, the findings of the paper suggest that both time period-specific characteristics as well as currency-specific factors play a vital role for the existence and severity of the FPB.

Is gold a safe haven for exchange rate risks? An empirical study of major currency countries

This study uses a TVP-VAR model to test whether gold is a safe haven for exchange rate risks. The five major world currencies are examined: the Chinese renminbi, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollar. The empirical results show that (1) gold cannot hedge currency depreciation in the long run; (2) gold can hedge currency depreciation dynamic risk in the short run; (3) gold can act as a safe haven to hedge dynamic risk for the euro, dollar, and pound in the short run, but not for the renminbi and yen; and (4) the yen tends to appreciate significantly when international risks escalate, thus, it can be regarded as a safe haven currency.

Interest Rate Theory in Islamic Economic Perspective

Inflation is a condition in which there is a sharp (absolute) increase in prices that lasts continuously for a long period of time followed by a decline in the real (intrinsic) value of a country's currency. circulating through an increase in bank interest rates. For this reason, the government carries out monetary policy by suppressing the money supply through increasing bank interest rates. However, the interest rate has various kinds, namely classical interest rate theory, neo classical, modern keyness and hicks. Therefore, this study focuses more on interest rates and the theory of interest rates by experts. So that it produces descriptive research.

Perlindungan Konsumen Terhadap Penipuan yang dilakukan Broker Forex Ilegal

The phenomenon of Foreign Exchange (Forex) that runs in the investment sector and can help the development of Indonesia. Currently forex is a trend that is endemic and attracts the attention of many parties, both investors and the public in general. Foreign exchange or forex is a type of trade or transaction that trades the currency of a country against the currencies of other countries involving the main money markets in the world for 24 hours continuously, so in this case a legal protection is needed. The purpose of this research is to analyze legal protection in Forex transactions and legal sanctions imposed by the government on illegal Forex broker activities. This research uses a normative method that with a statutory approach. Sources of data used are primary data sources and secondary data sources. After primary legal data and secondary legal data are collected, the data will then be processed and analyzed using systematic legal data processing methods. The results showed that the alleged fraudulent investment fraud case under the guise of forex trading involved illegal brokers from the Guardian Capital Group (GCG) Asia, which harmed consumers. In line with that, the government issued a legal rule, namely Law No.8 of 1999 concerning Consumer Protection. The Consumer Protection Law that has been set by the government is the legal basis that is accurate and full of optimism in protecting consumer rights.

Forecasting aluminum prices with commodity currencies

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for exchange rate determination and on the tight connection between some commodity prices and the currencies of some commodity exporter countries. We show results using traditional statistical metrics of forecast accuracy: Mean Squared Prediction Error and Mean Directional Accuracy. We also explore different ways in which we can jointly take advantage of the predictive information contained in all of our commodity-currencies. While LASSO and a model equipped with the first principal component of our currencies perform well, the best combination strategies involve the pre-selection of the two best performing individual currencies: The Chilean Peso and the Icelandic Krona.

Exchange Rates and Dominant Macro Fundamental

Various exchange rates are driven by different macro variables. This paper uses a measure of exchange rate informativeness about future macro fundamentals to identify the dominant macroeconomic fundamental of 120 currencies. Exchange rate informativeness is defined as the share of future fundamental shocks in the variance of exchange rate changes. The distribution of exchange rate informativeness shows that the median exchange rate informativeness about the dominant macro fundamental is 0.11. Moreover, the exchange rate of most high-inflation countries is driven by expectations of the price differential. Expectations of the relative output drive the currency of countries with high export concentration.

Digital currencies: The present and the future

Subject. The article considers digital currencies in the context of global and national financial system development. Objectives. The purpose is to identify and justify the role of digital currencies in the global finance development and the place of modern central bank policies in the development of digital currencies, to underpin the need for changing approaches to digital currencies on the part of central banks, and to predict possible scenarios for the development of digital currencies on the global scale. Methods. The study applies methods of logical and statistical analysis, the comparative approach, and systematization. Results. The paper describes major pros and cons of digital currencies by comparing them with cryptocurrencies; identifies the beneficiaries of the introduction of digital currencies in countries with the most developed strategies for the introduction of national digital currencies. It also unveils barriers to a large-scale introduction of digital currencies to the world market, and highlights the main areas of their use. I developed three scenarios of digital currencies introduction to the world market. Conclusions. A large-scale introduction of digital currencies as a means of international settlements is not possible at the present stage, however, their use as a tool for dealing with financial crises is the most realistic scenario.

Exchange rate regimes and price efficiency: Empirical examination of the impact of financial crisis

We analyze how different currency regimes influence the price efficiency of exchange rates. Based on an analysis of a sample of 20 exchange rates (covering 39 countries) over a 15-year period using MF-DFA (Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), we find that currencies of countries following a Free Float regime show greater price efficiency than currencies of countries following a Managed Float regime. We also examined the impact of the financial crisis of 2008–09 on the price efficiency of these currencies. Our results suggest that currencies following the Free Float exchange regime experienced significantly greater deterioration in their price efficiency than currencies under Managed Float regimes. Even more interestingly, the efficiency of the currencies of the Free Float countries have not fully recovered even a decade after the crisis.

Comparison of Forecasting Using Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and Lee Model to Foreign Exchange in EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Each country has a currency value that applies in its territory and can be adjusted to the value of the currency of other countries. In this adjustment, there is a difference in value when the transaction is made, and the difference in profit can be taken, usually referred to as foreign exchange (forex). In forex trading, analytical calculations are needed to plan a decision to get a significant difference so that the profits will increase. One analysis technique that can maximize the search for an enormous profit difference is by using the prediction method using the fuzzy time series. This method is a method that predicts future data based on historical data or past data. The fuzzy time series method has several models, including the Chen model and Lee model. In determining which model is the best, it is necessary to test using the AFER (average forecasting error rate) based on the level of accuracy of the smallest error value. By using historical data of EUR/USD and GBP/USD from 19 February 2019 to 19 February 2020, it is known that Lee’s fuzzy time series method predicts better accuracy because Chen’s model in foreign currency EUR/USD has a more significant error rate of 0.0018 (0.18%) or greater than Lee’s model which only has a value of 0.0016 (0.16%). Then the Chen model in foreign currency GBP/USD has an error rate of 0.00445 (0.445%) or greater than the Lee model, which only has an error rate of 0.00297 (0.297%).

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Status of RMB as an Anchor Currency

In the context of a severely volatile global financial market in 2020, the Ren Min Bi (RMB) has also experienced dramatic fluctuations. We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the status of the RMB as an anchor currency in countries along the “The Belt and Road”. The results show that the pandemic has caused a continuous adverse impact on the anchor role of the RMB.

Dependence Structure Between Renminbi Movements and Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rate Returns

This article investigates the linkages of the movements in Renminbi (RMB) to volatility of exchange rate returns of other currencies before and after the yuan devaluation on 11 August 2015. A comparison between the onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) and the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) is made. Standard regression methods underestimate the tail dependence between yuan and other exchange rate volatility, as financial data are non-normally distributed, especially when extreme event occurs. We apply Gumbel copulas to capture the presence of tail dependence between RMB returns and the volatility of exchange rate returns for 13 selected currencies, and found dependencies not revealed by the standard ARCH models. The tail dependence has increased after the RMB devaluation, suggesting that RMB depreciation is associated with higher downside risks in these currencies. This is most obvious in the currencies of Asian and ASEAN-5 countries that have strong trade and financial linkages with China. The dependence structure has shifted away from the dominance of onshore CNY rates before the devaluation to the growing importance of more volatile offshore CNH rates after the devaluation. Hence, any large depreciation in CNH will lead to a higher volatility in the other exchange rate returns, and the corresponding downside currency risks are higher than those of the CNY.

Dynamic connectedness of currencies in G7 countries: A Bayesian time-varying approach

This paper focuses on the dynamic connectedness of the five currencies used in G7 since 1983 in daily frequency measured by a Bayesian time-varying approach. We find that the total connectedness of the system varies dramatically over time, and the changes are related to economic or financial events. Moreover, the US dollar is always a transmitter, and the British pound and Canadian dollar are always recipients; however, the euro and Japanese yen switch roles during the sample period. The pairwise analysis suggests that the US dollar displays positive spillovers to the other currencies, but the Euro is a powerful competitor.

Energy requirements of self dependent India and contribution of thorium: A review

India entered the nuclear age on August 4, 1956 by commissioning the first nuclear reactor Apsara. Nuclear reactors became research platforms for the study of the behavior of substances under neutron physics and radiation, and for radioisotope production. Atomic energy has a definite and decisive role in the field of Indian power generation and supply. Thorium is the first element in the metal actinide series. Monazite is its most important source; the largest reserves of monazite in the world are in the state of Kerala, India. India has one fourth of the known thorium reserves, the whole world is struggling with the possibility of future energy crisis, and India’s energy needs are also increasing day by day with a population of 130 billion. Much of the country's currency is spent on the import of conventional fuels, yet technology has not been developed by which the energy needs can be fully met from the renewable energy sources. In such a situation, thorium is the only ray of hope for the country like India that can successfully meet the energy, nuclear and non-nuclear needs of the country.

Strategic Consumer Behavior in Response to Government Policy

This paper studies consumer behavior in the retail setting in response to a government policy aimed at economic transparency, and quantifies its unintended consequences for retailers vis-a-vis the policy goal. Using transaction-level data from a large retail chain in India, we document consumer strategies, that leverage the presence retailers, to avoid costs associated with the country's currency reform policy. We observe both an increase in returns of cash-purchased items that were bought before demonetization (strategic returns) and a spike in final cash purchases with soon-to-be-illegal notes (strategic purchases). Both practices serve consumer incentives to either receive legal notes from the retailer or to avoid depositing cash to formal bank accounts. Our analysis suggests that strategic consumers benefited the retail chain overall while partly hindering the intended effect of the policy, leaving more than 100 billion INR (1.5 billion USD) of demonetized notes outside the formal tax network. Our findings (i) offer implications for policy makers and retailers by quantifying the economic significance of strategic consumer practices, and (ii) document a new role of the retail industry - of absorbing and responding to macro shocks.

THE USE OF SURROGATE CURRENCY TO ADDRESS LIQUIDITY CRISIS: THE ZIMBABWEAN EXPERIENCE

Zimbabwe has experienced an economic meltdown dating back to 2000, which created perennial economic woes such as a liquidity crisis that continued haunting the country to date. Various possible solutions were explored but did not yield the desired results. Amongst the explored solutions was an introduction of surrogate currency specifically to curb the liquidity crisis. This paper sought to explore the effects of using "surrogate currency" to address the liquidity crisis in Zimbabwe by employing a desk review. Currently, there is a dearth of literature on using surrogate currency in African countries. Hence this study contributes to the existing literature on the use of such currency. The review established that the surrogate currency led to the emergence of bad money as propounded by Gresham’s law of currency systems. Moreover, the surrogate currency rapidly lost its value, whereas the introduction of the surrogate currency failed to address the liquidity crisis, leading to other socio-economic challenges. Finally, financial reporting under the surrogate currency became a challenge as well. This study recommends the withdrawal of the surrogate currency and the use of multicurrency along with the promotion of products for export to attract more foreign currency into the economy.

Redistribution of Wealth Through Cross Border Financial Transactions: A Closer Look

Contrary to existing literature, here we consider the foreign exchange reserve balance of a particular country as an indicator of how much goods, services and/or physical asset the country has transferred to the rest of the world in exchange of some fiat foreign currencies. On the other hand, the reserve balances of the rest of the world denominated in the currency of that particular country can be considered as the amount of goods, services and/or physical assets that the particular country has received from the rest of the world in exchange of its own fiat currencies. Hence, if we subtract the second quantity from the first one, we get an estimate of the extent of net non-monetary wealth that the particular country has transferred so far to the rest of the world in exchange of some fiat foreign money. We calculate the amount of net non-monetary wealth (thus defined) transferred to and from some major economies stemming from cross border financial transactions and analyze their long term and short term dynamics using VECM. The main objective of this study is to give a new perspective to what we conventionally mean by foreign exchange reserve of a country: Instead of assuming the reserve balance of a country as an asset we consider it as a measure of gross wealth (i.e., goods, services and physical asset) the country has transferred so far to other countries around the globe in exchange of some paper currencies with no intrinsic value.

АНАЛИЗ ВЛИЯНИЯ ЦИФРОВЫХ ВАЛЮТ НА ФИНАНСОВУЮ СИСТЕМУ И МОНЕТАРНУЮ ПОЛИТИКУ (Analysis of the Influence of Digital Currencies on the Financial System and Monetary Policy)

Russian Abstract:В работе рассмотрены различные вопросы, связанные как с теорией, так и с практикой мира цифровых валют. Подробно рассмотрен набирающий популярность сектор сервисов и услуг, основанных на технологии распределённого реестра, получивших название децентрализованных финансов (decentralized finance, DeFi), выросший за последний год с 700 млн. до 11,5 млрд. долларов США. По своей сути, в данном секторе строятся аналоги традиционных финансовых и банковских сервисов, в которых вместо соответствующих учреждений выступает совокупность смарт-контрактов, работающих в автоматическом режиме. Кроме того, в работе проанализированы теоретические риски и потенциальные выгоды от эмиссии цифровых валют центральных банков, а также рассмотрен мировой опыт пилотной эмиссии ЦВЦБ разными странами. Мы рассмотрели связь криптовалют с друими финансовыми активами, а также протестировали наличие левередж-эффекта в динамике криптовалют. В работе также приводятся некоторые свидетельства в пользу существования положительной внутренней стоимости у Bitcoin на определенных промежутках времени. English Abstract:The paper discusses various issues related to both theory and practice of the world of digital currencies. The growing popularity of the sector of services based on the technology of a distributed ledger, called decentralized finance (DeFi), is considered in detail, which has grown over the last year from 700 million to 11.5 billion US dollars. Different analogs of traditional financial and banking services are being built in this sector, in which, instead of the corresponding institutions, there is a set of smart contracts operating in an automatic mode. In addition, the paper analyzes the theoretical risks and potential benefits from the emission of digital currencies by central banks, and considers the world experience of the pilot projects of digital currencies in different countries. We examined the relationship of cryptocurrencies with other financial assets, and tested the presence of a leverage effect in the dynamics of cryptocurrencies. The paper provides some evidence for the existence of a positive intrinsic Bitcoin value over some periods of time.

Internationalization of the Currencies of BRICS Countries.

The ongoing large-scale transformation of the global economy, caused primarily by the economic recovery of the leading developing countries, forms a multipolar map of the world with new centers of power—the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Thanks to their increased industrial and financial power, these countries are among the key players in the international markets for goods, services, and capital, exerting a significant, and sometimes decisive, impact on their functioning. However, it would be premature to say that in the coming years the representatives of this association will be able to achieve a balance of power in monetary and credit relations with the United States and the European Union, overcoming their long-term dominance in world finance. Achieving such a balance will become possible only as the monetary units of the BRICS countries turn into influential reserve assets that can squeeze the US dollar and euro in servicing world economic relations and create large international financial centers in them that can compete on equal terms with London or New York.

Good Financial Planning Considering the Exchange Rate Fluctuation

The study discusses planning a management function, the success or failure of achieving predetermined goals depends on planning The financial planning process rate and political stability in saving money, Two important aspects in the financial planning process (1) Cash planning, which includes the preparation of the company's cash budget. (2) Profit planning, corporate profit planning made in the form of a pro forma financial report. Interest rate, changes in interest rates will affect the value of a country's currency in general against the dollar. Currency trading rates (forex), interest rates, and inflation are all interrelated. An increase in the interest rate causes a country's currency to appreciate. Political Stability the political stability and economic performance of a country can affect the strength of its currency.