Dependence Structure Between Renminbi Movements and Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rate Returns

Abstract

This article investigates the linkages of the movements in Renminbi (RMB) to volatility of exchange rate returns of other currencies before and after the yuan devaluation on 11 August 2015. A comparison between the onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) and the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) is made. Standard regression methods underestimate the tail dependence between yuan and other exchange rate volatility, as financial data are non-normally distributed, especially when extreme event occurs. We apply Gumbel copulas to capture the presence of tail dependence between RMB returns and the volatility of exchange rate returns for 13 selected currencies, and found dependencies not revealed by the standard ARCH models. The tail dependence has increased after the RMB devaluation, suggesting that RMB depreciation is associated with higher downside risks in these currencies. This is most obvious in the currencies of Asian and ASEAN-5 countries that have strong trade and financial linkages with China. The dependence structure has shifted away from the dominance of onshore CNY rates before the devaluation to the growing importance of more volatile offshore CNH rates after the devaluation. Hence, any large depreciation in CNH will lead to a higher volatility in the other exchange rate returns, and the corresponding downside currency risks are higher than those of the CNY.