HIV Prevalence Countries Research Articles

Teachers’ Perceptions on their Readiness to Teach HIV/AIDS Education in Schools

South Africa is the highest HIV prevalence country in the world with young people (15-24 years) making up the largest proportion of HIV infected people. Kwazulu-Natal is the worst affected province nationally. Poor teacher training and the stigma around HIV/AIDS are contributing factors. Therefore an effective school-based HIV/AIDS education intervention program should encompass effective teacher training and curriculum development. A cross-sectional study was conducted among teachers to identify the factors that support or hinder their role in HIV/AIDS education. A self-administered questionnaire was used for interviewing teachers from stratified randomly-selected 2 primary and 2 secondary schools in the province of KwaZulu-Natal’s Pietermaritzburg region. Teachers from 2 out of the 4 selected schools were trained under an HIV/AIDS education intervention program funded by Community Care Project while those from the other 2 selected schools were not trained. This was meant to compare (using tables and graphs) the teachers’ perceptions, ability, skills, and their participation in HIV/AIDS education between the trained and untrained teachers. While about 56% of the untrained teachers never taught about HIV, it was only 5% of the trained teachers who never taught about HIV. While 97% (95% CI 93.85–100) of the trained teachers use interactive teaching methods, it was only 41% (95% CI 28.21-53.99) on the untrained teachers. Higher number of untrained teachers (70%) reported facing difficulty while talking about HIV issues compared to the trained teachers (9%). So trained teachers were more likely to participate, less likely to face difficulties, and more likely to use interactive teaching methods in HIV/AIDS classes compared to the untrained teachers. Inadequate time allocation to HIV/AIDS classes was found to be a barrier to HIV/AIDS education. This suggests the need to provide teachers with more support in terms of training and logistics.

Impact of Mass Media on HIV/AIDS Stigma Reduction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

HIV-related stigma is a major barrier to HIV testing and care engagement. Despite efforts to use mass media to address HIV-related stigma, their impact on reducing HIV-related stigma remains unclear. Thus, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of peer-reviewed publications quantitatively examining the impact of mass media exposure on HIV-related stigma reduction and published from January 1990 to December 2020. Of 388 articles found in the initial screening from scientific databases, 19 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the systematic review. Sixteen articles reported the quantitative effect of mass media exposure on HIV-related stigma and were included in the meta-analysis. Systematic review results showed considerable heterogeneity in studied populations with a few interventions and longitudinal studies. Results suggested a higher interest in utilizing mass media by health policymakers in developing countries with greater HIV prevalence to reduce HIV-related stigma. Meta-analysis results showed a modest impact of mass media use on HIV-related stigma reduction. Despite heterogeneity in the impact of mass media on HIV-related stigma, Egger's regression test and funnel graph indicated no evidence for publication bias. Results demonstrated an increase in the impact of mass media on reducing HIV-related stigma over time and no correlation between the HIV prevalence in countries and the impact of mass media. In summary, mass media exposure has a modest and context-specific impact on HIV-related stigma reduction. More large-scale mass media interventions and studies addressing the impact of mass media on different forms of stigma are required to inform policies.

Voluntary medical male circumcision in selected provinces in South Africa: Outcomes from a programmatic setting.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) remains an effective biomedical intervention for HIV prevention in high HIV prevalence countries. In South Africa, United States Agency for International Development VMMC partners provide technical assistance to the Department of Health, at national and provincial levels in support of the establishment of VMMC sites as well as in providing direct VMMC services at site level since April 2012. We describe the outcomes of the Right to Care (RTC) VMMC program implemented in South Africa from 2012 to 2017. This retrospective study was undertaken at RTC supported facilities across six provinces. Young males aged ≥10 years who presented at these facilities from 1 July 2012 to 31 September 2017 were included. Outcomes were VMMC uptake, HIV testing uptake and rate of adverse events (AEs). Using a de-identified observational database of these clients, summary statistics of the demographic characteristics and outcomes were calculated. There were a total 1,001,226 attendees of which 998,213 (99.7%) were offered VMMC and had a median age of 15 years (IQR = 12-23 years). Of those offered VMMC, 99.6% (994,293) consented, 96.7% (965,370) were circumcised and the majority (46.3%) were from Gauteng province. HIV testing uptake was 71% with a refusal rate of 15%. Of the newly diagnosed HIV positives, 64% (6,371 / 9,972) referrals were made. The rate of AEs, defined as bleeding, infection, and insufficient skin removal) declined from 3.26% in 2012 to 1.17% in 2017. There was a reduction in infection-related AEs from 2,448 of the 2,602 adverse events (94.08%) in 2012 to 129 of the 2,069 adverse events (6.23%) in 2017. There was a high VMMC uptake with a decline in AEs over time. Adolescent men contributed the most to the circumcised population, an indication that the young population accesses medical circumcision more. VMMC programs need to implement innovative demand creation strategies to encourage older males (20-34 years) at higher risk of HIV acquisition to get circumcised for immediate impact in reduction of HIV incidence. HIV prevalence in the total population increased with increasing age, notably in clients above 25 years.

Drought, HIV Testing, and HIV Transmission Risk Behaviors: A Population-Based Study in 10 High HIV Prevalence Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Droughts are associated with poor health outcomes and disruption of public health programming. Data on the association between drought and HIV testing and transmission risk behaviors are limited. We combined data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 10 high HIV prevalence sub-Saharan African countries with a high-resolution measure of drought. We estimated the association between drought and recent HIV testing, report of condomless sex, and number of sexual partners in the last year. Respondents exposed to drought were less likely to have an HIV test and more likely to have condomless sex, although effect sizes were small. We found evidence for effect modification by sex and age for the association between drought and HIV testing, such that the negative association between drought and HIV testing was strongest among men (marginal risk ratio [mRR] 0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.95) and adolescents (mRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.93). Drought may hinder HIV testing programs in countries with high HIV prevalence.

Assessing inclusion of trans people in HIV national strategic plans: a review of 60 high HIV prevalence countries.

IntroductionTrans people are disproportionately impacted by HIV yet have not been adequately prioritized in national HIV responses or policy documents. This review aims to understand the extent of meaningful inclusion of trans people in national strategic plans (NSPs) for HIV/AIDS as an essential step in ensuring that HIV policy aligns with epidemiologic data, and trans‐specific programming is funded, implemented and sustained.MethodsHIV NSPs from 60 countries, across five global regions, were assessed for the level of inclusion of trans populations between January and March 2021. The most recently available NSP for each country, published after 2011, was obtained through publicly accessible online sources or through researcher networks. Data were manually extracted from NSPs using a framework of indicators focusing on trans inclusion in these five major sections of NSPs: (1) narratives; (2) epidemiological data; (3) monitoring and evaluation (M&E) indicators and targets; (4) activities; and (5) budgets.Results and discussionWithin all reviewed NSPs, 65.0% (39/60) mentioned trans people in at least one of the five key sections but only 8.3% (5/60) included trans people in all five key sections. Trans people were more commonly mentioned in the background/narratives of NSPs (61.7%, 37/60) but less commonly included NSP activities (38.3%, 23/60), in M&E indicators and targets (23.7%, 14/60), in epidemiological data (20.0% 12/60), and in NSP budgets (13.3%, 8/60). Countries in the Asia and Pacific region most frequently included trans people in all five key sections (38%, 5/13), while no countries in Eastern and Southern Africa included trans people in all NSP sections.ConclusionsThis analysis finds substantial gaps in the inclusion of trans populations in NSPs globally. Results highlight the pressing need for states, technical partners, and international funders to engage with trans communities to improve trans‐inclusion in all key sections of NSPs. Trans inclusion in NSPs is an essential step towards reaching the populations most at risk of HIV and ultimately achieving country‐level epidemic control.

HIV stigma in the teaching hospitals in Sana\u2019a, Yemen: a conflict and low-resource setting

BackgroundHIV stigma undermines a person’s wellbeing and quality of life and hinders HIV control efforts. This study examined the extent and drivers of HIV stigma in the teaching hospitals in Sana’a City, Yemen. The country has low HIV prevalence (4000 (2000-11,000) per 100,000) and limited HIV control funds, worsened by a long conflict and an economic crisis.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study of 320 Yemeni health professionals in all the four teaching hospitals in Sana’a City. Data were collected anonymously, using an adapted self-completed Arabic version of the Health Policy Project HIV Stigma tool. The questionnaire covered the respondents’ background, the stigmatising practices, and potential personal and professional drivers of stigma.ResultsThe majority of the participants were: females (68%), 20–39 years old (85%), nurses (84%), and holding a nursing diploma (69%) or a bachelor’s degree (27%). None of the hospitals had institutional policies against HIV stigma, and 93% of the participants believed the current infection control measures were inadequate. Less than half of the participants provided care for people living with HIV (PLHIV) (45%), had received HIV training (33%), and were confident that their HIV knowledge was adequate (23%). The majority indicated a preference to test patients for HIV prior to surgical procedures (77%) and disclose positive HIV results to others (99%) without prior knowledge or consent. All the participants had exhibited a form of HIV-related stigmatization, such as avoiding physical contact with PLHIV (87%) or wearing gloves throughout the consultation (96.5%). These practices were significantly correlated with the fear of infection, high perceived risk of infection, and poor work environment (p < 0.05).ConclusionPLHIV face widespread stigmatizing behaviour in the teaching hospitals in Sana’a City, consistent with the higher level of stigma in low HIV prevalence countries and its links to the fear of infection, poor HIV knowledge, and limited funding for HIV control. Stigma reduction interventions are required at institutional and individual levels. In addition, anti-discrimination policies and structural adjustments are needed, in combination with training on HIV and universal precautions, and action to tackle negative attitudes towards PLHIV and key populations.

A Cross-Sectional Study Comparing Two Opt-Out HIV Testing Strategies in the Out-Patient Setting.

Background: HIV infections are generally asymptomatic, leading to undetected infections and late-stage diagnoses. There are a lack of acceptable testing strategies for routine opt-out HIV screening. Our aim was to evaluate and compare the diagnostic yield of routine opt-out HIV testing strategies in two out-patient settings in a low HIV prevalence country: The public primary care and specialist out-patient care settingMethods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a primary care clinic over a four-week period in 2016 to 2017 and in a specialist out-patient clinic over a concurrent 11-month period. Patients were invited to complete a questionnaire assessing demographic characteristics, acceptance of opt-out HIV testing as a policy in all out-patient clinics in Hong Kong and reasons if refusing the HIV test. All respondents were offered an HIV test.Results: This study included 648 and 1,603 patients in the primary care and specialist out-patient clinic, respectively. Test acceptability was 86 and 87% in the primary care and specialist out-patient setting, respectively. Test uptake was 35 and 68% in the primary care and specialist out-patient setting, respectively. No HIV infections were detected.Conclusion: Opt-out HIV testing during routine blood taking in the specialist out-patient setting achieved a high test uptake and acceptability. In contrast, opt-out HIV testing using rapid finger-prick tests in the primary care setting was not effective.

HIV trends and disparities by gender and urban\u2013rural residence among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundIn sub-Saharan Africa HIV transmission is a major challenge in adolescents, especially among girls and those living in urban settings. Major international efforts have aimed at reducing sexual transmission of HIV. This analysis aims to assess the trends in HIV prevalence by gender in adolescents, as well as urban–rural disparities.MethodsHIV prevalence data at ages 15–19 years were obtained for 31 countries with a national survey since 2010 and for 23 countries with one survey circa 2005 and a recent survey circa 2015. Country medians and average annual rates of changes were used to summarize the trends for two subregions in sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa, which largely correspond with higher and lower HIV prevalence countries. Data on HIV incidence at ages 15–24 and prevalence at 5–9 and 10–14 years were reviewed from 11 recent national surveys. Trends in urban–rural disparities in HIV prevalence and selected indicators of sexual and HIV testing behaviours were assessed for females and males 15–24 years, using the same surveys.ResultsHIV prevalence among girls 15–19 years declined in eastern and Southern Africa from 5.7 to 2.6% during 2005–2015 (country median), corresponding with an average annual rate of reduction of 6.5% per year. Among boys, the median HIV prevalence declined from 2.1 to 1.2%. Changes were also observed in West and Central Africa where median HIV prevalence among girls decreased from 0.7 to 0.4% (average annual rate of reduction 5.9%), but not for boys (0.3%). Girl-boy differences at 10–14 years were small with a country median HIV of 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively. Urban females and males 15–24 had at least 1.5 times higher HIV prevalence than their rural counterparts in both subregions, and since the urban–rural declines were similar, the gaps persisted during 2005–2015.ConclusionsHIV prevalence among adolescents declined in almost all countries during the last decade, in both urban and rural settings. The urban–rural gap persisted and HIV transmission to girls, but not boys, is still a major challenge in Eastern and Southern African countries.

Finding, treating and retaining persons with HIV in a high HIV prevalence and high treatment coverage country: Results from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project.

IntroductionThe scale-up of Universal Test and Treat has resulted in reductions in HIV morbidity, mortality and incidence. However, healthcare system and personal challenges have impacted the levels of treatment coverage achieved. We implemented interventions to improve linkage to care, retention, viral load (VL) coverage and service delivery, and describe the HIV care cascade over the course of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) study.MethodsBCPP was designed to evaluate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in 30 communities in Botswana. We followed a longitudinal cohort of newly identified and known HIV-positive persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified through community-based testing activities through BCPP and referred with appointments to local HIV clinics in 15 intervention communities. Those who did not keep the first or follow-up appointments were tracked and traced through phone and home contacts. Improvements to service delivery models in the intervention clinics were also implemented.ResultsA total of 3,657 newly identified or HIV-positive persons not on ART were identified and referred to their local HIV clinic; 90% (3,282/3,657) linked to care and of those, 93% (3,066/3,282) initiated treatment. Near the end of the study, 221 persons remained >90 days late for appointments or missing. Tracing efforts identified 54/3,066 (2%) persons who initiated treatment but died, and 106/3,066 (3%) persons were located and returned to treatment. At study end, 61/3,066 (2%) persons remained missing and were never reached. Overall, 2,951 (98%) persons living with HIV (PLHIV) who initiated treatment were still alive, retained in care and still receiving ART out of the 3,001 persons alive at the end of the study. Of those on ART, 2,854 (97%) had current VL results and 2,784 (98%) of those were virally suppressed at study end.ConclusionsThis study achieved high rates of linkage, treatment initiation, retention and VL coverage and suppression in a cohort of newly identified and known PLHIV not on ART. Tracking and tracing interventions effectively identified those persons who needed more resource intensive follow-up. The interventions implemented to improve service delivery and data quality may have also contributed to high linkage and retention rates.Clinical trial number: NCT01965470.

The educational attainment of orphans in high HIV countries in sub-Saharan Africa: An update

Twenty years ago, it was widely expected that the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa would lead to a severe deterioration in the educational outcomes among a rapidly expanding orphan population. This article reviews the extent to which this happened by analysing recent national household survey evidence from five high HIV prevalence countries, namely Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The main findings are that while some orphans continue to be educationally disadvantaged in some countries, the overall sizes of already quite small enrolment and educational attainment differentials between orphans and non-orphans have not significantly increased in any of these countries. The main reasons for this are the overall decline in the orphan population (due to the mass availability of life-prolonging anti-retro viral medication), free primary education, lower levels of absolute poverty, and targeted support of various kinds for orphans by governments and NGOs.

Ending unjust HIV criminalization: leave no-one behind.

Ending unjust HIV criminalization: leave no-one behind.

Risk-Based Screening Tools to Optimise HIV Testing Services: A Systematic Review

Background: Effective ways to diagnose the remaining people living with HIV who do not know their status with limited resources is a global priority. This study aims to evaluate the use of risk-based tools, a set of criteria to either identify high-risk individuals for HIV testing who would not otherwise be offered a test (screen in) or exclude people from a routine offer of a test (screen out). Methods: The study was two parts: (1) systematic literature review and (2) global survey of implementers. We searched four databases July 2020 and assessed the accuracy of tools diagnosing HIV (using AUC: area under a receiver operating characteristic curve). The systematic review protocol is registered PROSPERO (CRD42020187838). From August to September 2020, we invited 68 implementers to complete a survey of their experiences using these tools within programmes. Results: We identified 18,238 citations, and 71 were included the final analysis. Tools identified were most commonly from high-income (51%) and low HIV (<5%) prevalence countries (73%); and used primary care settings (24%), for men who have sex with men (MSM, 21%) and paediatric populations (20%). The majority were for screening in (70%), with the highest performance tools related to identifying MSM with acute HIV (AUC 0.85-0.89). Data from implementers revealed that tools were mainly used middle-income countries (68%), from high HIV prevalence countries (68%) and hospitals (36%). Less than half stated the tools were evaluated (43%) and were used to screen (20/80, 25%), screen out (7/80, 9%) or unknown (53/80, 66%). Conclusion: There is potential for risk-based tools to improve the efficiency of HIV testing services. Screening tools may be helpful settings where it is not feasible or recommended to offer testing routinely. Caution is needed for out tools, where there is a trade-off between reducing costs of testing with missing cases of people living with HIV. Tools must be locally evaluated for accuracy and feasibility of implementation. Country programmes should be cautious implementing such tools and ensure consistent monitoring and regular re-validation to not undermine progress toward the 95-95-95 targets. Registration Details: The systematic review protocol is registered PROSPERO (CRD42020187838). Funding Information: This research was supported by funding from the World Health Organization through the following grants: USAID GHA‐G‐00‐09‐00003, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1177903. JJO is supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Emerging Leadership Fellowship (GNT1193955). Declaration of Interests: The authors declare they do not have any competing interests.

Lack of RH2 gene expression may have influenced the HIV pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

To evaluate the association between the Rhesus system RH2-blood group expression and susceptibility to HIV infection, viral load, CD4+ cell count and rate of CD4+ decline. We also aimed to determine if a country's HIV prevalence may be predicted from its RH2 relative frequency. Our previous studies did not find any HIV-infected RH2 homozygotes. Therefore, the current cross-sectional study analysed a larger sample to determine whether HIV-infection also occurs in homozygotes. We also conducted a cross-sectional analysis of RH2 expression in an HIV natural history cohort in Botswana. Lastly, we analysed published data from 60 countries around the world to interrogate the link between RH2 frequency and HIV prevalence. One thousand and six hundred anticoagulated blood samples (800 HIV-positive and 800 HIV-negative) were phenotyped for RH2 using serological methods. The proportion of RH2-positive samples was compared across categories of HIV status and odds ratios calculated. Mean viral load and CD4+ cell counts from a natural history cohort study were also compared across categories of RH2. Kaplan--Meier plots were generated for 4-year CD4+-decline to 350 cells/μl. No RH2 homozygotes were found among HIV-positives. Moreover, RH2-negatives were 1.37 times more likely to be HIV-positive than heterozygotes (P = 0.02) and 33 times more likely than RH2 homozygotes (P = 0.01). RH2-positive patients showed significantly higher mean CD4+ cell counts (P < 0.0001), lower viral load (P = 0.024) and slower CD4+ decline (P = 0.038). RH2 is potentially a critical host genetic factor determining susceptibility of any population to HIV infection, and probably transcends most other factors in importance for HIV risk of infection.

Cost-effectiveness of dual maternal HIV and syphilis testing strategies in high and low HIV prevalence countries: a modelling study

SummaryBackgroundDual HIV and syphilis testing might help to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis through increased case detection and treatment. We aimed to model and assess the cost-effectiveness of dual testing during antenatal care in four countries with varying HIV and syphilis prevalence.MethodsIn this modelling study, we developed Markov models of HIV and syphilis in pregnant women to estimate costs and infant health outcomes of maternal testing at the first antenatal care visit with individual HIV and syphilis tests (base case) and at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario one). We additionally evaluated retesting during late antenatal care and at delivery with either individual tests (scenario two) or a dual rapid diagnosis test (scenario three). We modelled four countries: South Africa, Kenya, Colombia, and Ukraine. Strategies with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than the country-specific cost-effectiveness threshold (US$500 in Kenya, $750 in South Africa, $3000 in Colombia, and $1000 in Ukraine) per disability-adjusted life-year averted were considered cost-effective.FindingsRoutinely offering testing at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnosis test was cost-saving compared with the base case in all four countries (ICER: –$26 in Kenya,–$559 in South Africa, –$844 in Colombia, and –$454 in Ukraine). Retesting during late antenatal care with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario three) was cost-effective compared with scenario one in all four countries (ICER: $270 in Kenya, $260 in South Africa, $2207 in Colombia, and $205 in Ukraine).InterpretationIncorporating dual rapid diagnostic tests in antenatal care can be cost-saving across countries with varying HIV prevalence. Countries should consider incorporating dual HIV and syphilis rapid diagnostic tests as the first test in antenatal care to support efforts to eliminate MTCT of HIV and syphilis.FundingWHO, US Agency for International Development, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Life Expectancy and Economic Development

This study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.

Let's talk chronic disease: can differentiated service delivery address the syndemics of HIV, hypertension and diabetes?

Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for HIV provides an approach to scaling services that are client-centred and aims to address client challenges whilst reducing the burden on health systems. With access to antiretroviral therapy, people living with HIV are living longer and increasingly present with comorbid conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes. This review presents the syndemic burden of HIV, hypertension and diabetes and highlights opportunities and challenges to leveraging DSD across diseases. Prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in the eight highest HIV prevalence countries ranges between 20-24% (31.9% in those >50 years old) and 4-10%, respectively. Service delivery models addressing the concurrent syndemics focus primarily on integration of services. Two DSD examples were found where people living with HIV and other comorbidities had their care and treatment supported in healthcare worker-led facility-based adherence clubs. Key enablers that have supported DSD for HIV such as simplified algorithms, optimized formulations, secure drug supply, and strengthened monitoring and evaluation systems are lacking for hypertension and diabetes and thus pose a major challenge to leveraging DSD models for people with syndemic conditions. However, the DSD approach may also catalyse opportunities to provide person-centred care for these syndemics and more implementation research in this area is warranted.

Possible Transmission Mechanisms of Mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in High HIV Prevalence Country, Botswana.

Tuberculosis caused by concurrent infection with multiple Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains (i.e., mixed infection) challenges clinical and epidemiologic paradigms. We explored possible transmission mechanisms of mixed infection in a population-based, molecular epidemiology study in Botswana during 2012–2016. We defined mixed infection as multiple repeats of alleles at >2 loci within a discrete mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit–variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) result. We compared mixed infection MIRU-VNTR results with all study MIRU-VNTR results by considering all permutations at each multiple allele locus; matched MIRU-VNTR results were considered evidence of recently acquired strains and nonmatched to any other results were considered evidence of remotely acquired strains. Among 2,051 patients, 34 (1.7%) had mixed infection, of which 23 (68%) had recently and remotely acquired strains. This finding might support the mixed infection mechanism of recent transmission and simultaneous remote reactivation. Further exploration is needed to determine proportions of transmission mechanisms in settings where mixed infections are prevalent.

Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata

AbstractThis study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.

Temporal and cross-national comparisons of young Africans' HIV-related narratives from five countries, 1997-2014.

Little is known about how young Africans have made sense of the dramatic ways in which the HIV epidemic has evolved, and how that sense-making varies across countries with different epidemiological and sociocultural profiles. Symbolic representations of HIV and people living with HIV influence prevention, stigma, treatment-seeking, and illness experience. We compared social representations of HIV among young people from Senegal, Burkina Faso, Nigeria (South-East), Kenya, and Swaziland between 1997 and 2014. From a pool of 32,759 HIV-themed creative narratives contributed by 10–24 year-olds to scriptwriting competitions at eight time points (1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2014), we randomly sampled 1937 narratives, stratified by author's sex, age, and rural/urban residence. We quantified components of each narrative and calculated descriptive statistics and adjusted odds ratios, controlling for year, country, and author demographics. From 2005 onwards, representations of death, treatment access, and hopefulness improved significantly. Representations of death reached their lowest point in 2013, while biomedical treatment and hope peaked in 2011 and 2008, respectively, then declined. Narratives increasingly focused on female protagonists. Nigerian texts had significantly higher odds of death and blame, and lower odds of hope. A focus on life post-infection and representations of support for characters living with HIV increased with country HIV prevalence. Narratives by older authors were less blaming and more hopeful, supportive, and prevention-focused. While aggregate social representations in the narratives from 2005 to 2008-11 reflect increased optimism fostered by access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), positive developments are not sustained at this level. Stigmatizing representations persist, particularly in Nigeria. The hope-promoting and stigma-reducing influence of the advent of ART access may have partially run its course by 2011/2013. However, significant temporal and cross-national differences point to opportunities to reframe HIV in more constructive ways and contribute to improved education, communication, and stigma-reduction efforts.

A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic

AbstractAccording to the conventional theory of the demographic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger of fertility decline and sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/AIDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, dramatically reversing the long-term positive trend in life expectancies in high HIV-prevalence countries. Moreover, SSA is experiencing a delayed and slower fertility transition compared to other world regions and there is growing empirical evidence highlighting the potential for a paralysis, or even a reversal, of the fertility transition in countries with severe HIV epidemics. This work builds on a unified growth theory-like general equilibrium model combined with HIV spread, where mortality endogenously feeds back into fertility and education decisions. The model supports the evidence of an HIV-triggered fertility reversal in SSA via the fall in education and human capital investments due to increased adult mortality, which eventually breaks the switch from quantity to quality of children. Fertility reversal is predicted to be more likely to occur in countries experiencing severe HIV epidemics, and its effects may persist even under successful scenarios of HIV control. These results suggest that the alarming possibility of a paralysis in the fertility transition, which so far has aroused little concern among international organizations, e.g., in the last round of UN population projections, should be seriously considered with a view to prioritizing policy interventions.