Countries In International Trade Research Articles

TRADE POLICY RESPONSES TO THE CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES OF THE GLOBAL MARKET

The present paper discusses several new trends in the global trade such as digitalization of trade, regional trade agreements and the emergence of new global players. Based on theoretical research and the study of the available secondary statistical data it analyzes how trade policy can address these changes under the existing world trading system. Trade rules underlying the traditional trading system are still applicable under increasing digital trade and enhanced bilateral and regional trade integration. However, WTO Agreement has nothing to do with those barriers of trade that go beyond traditional trade measures and are very acute for the developing countries. They involve access to the Internet and other telecommunication infrastructure, weak formal institutions and legal protection, lack of awareness about the potential benefits and opportunities in digital trade and lack of IT literacy. In order to overcome these barriers developing countries should incorporate trade policy as a component of deep economic reforms. The pace of development of the multilateral trading rules is slower than required by increasingly flexible business models. Therefore, countries try to find solutions at the bilateral and plurilateral levels. For instance, the EU develops regulations under Digital Single Market as well as within its bilateral trade agreements with non-member states. Georgia is implementing digital economy regulations in accordance to its DCFTA with the EU. Access to information and communication technologies is essential to be engaged in digital trade. For developing countries investments in digital infrastructure is an important policy issue, while developed countries are more focused on balanced trade rules, which ensure the development of digital trade, on the one hand and security and data protection, on the other. Contemporary trade policy goes beyond regulation based on classical trade instruments. It encompasses regulation within regional trade and investment agreements, technical standards and other behind-the-border measures, regulation of services and intellectual property markets and support for sustainable development goals, etc. A large part of the contemporary regional trade agreements covers all these areas. The development of bilateral and regional cooperation by encouraging deep integration can be discussed as an effort to overcome inflexibilities of the multilateral system. Regional integration enables countries to develop selective approach towards their trade partners and maintain certain degree of autonomy by applying different trade rules towards different partners. Elimination of behind the border barriers and enhanced regulatory harmonization leads to reduced trade costs, but it also leads to race to the bottom in regulatory facilitation what might be detrimental to the national policy goals. The effects of deep economic integration cannot be assessed based on the traditional approach of trade creation and trade diversion, because integration as an institutional process affects not only trade flows but also economic and institutional development levels of the countries. Deep regional integration reduces institutional differences within regions and increases them across regions. Besides it, the increasing role of BRICs countries in international trade leads to greater diversity of actors in the world market. New global players ask for greater voice in the process of reforming trade rules. Therefore, global trade rules should reflect the diversity that comes from changes in the patterns as well as the main players of the world market.

Determinants of Ethiopian Agricultural Exports: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Although the share of developing countries in international trade has been growing over the last two decades, the share of Africa and Ethiopia in international trade has remained below 3 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. More importantly, despite the colossal effort that has been made by the Ethiopian government to remedy the problem of the export sector over the last two decades, the country has faced a twin deficit: trade deficit and fiscal deficit. As a result, the trade balance of Ethiopia has been worsening through time due to the widening gap between export and import values. Therefore, this study examined the determinants of Ethiopian agricultural exports using the imperfect substitutes’ model as a theoretical framework and system generalised moment method as an analytical model for the period 1998–2018. The regression result of the two-step system generalised moment method showed that gross domestic product, exchange rate, road network, corruption index of Ethiopia, lagged export value, indirect tax revenue and domestic saving are the major determinants of agricultural exports in Ethiopia. However, foreign direct investment and labour force are negatively and significantly related to Ethiopian agricultural exports. Hence, rapid economic growth, currency devaluation, encouraging domestic saving, reducing the tariff on export and better control of corruption would boost Ethiopian agricultural exports. Besides, controlling rapid population growth and directing foreign direct investment to the agricultural sector will also surge Ethiopian agricultural exports.

NON-TARIFF MEASURES (NTMS) AND INDONESIAN NATURAL RUBBER EXPORT TO THE MAIN EXPORT DESTINATION COUNTRIES

The value of natural rubber exports is declining continuously every year. One of the reasons for the decline in the value of natural rubber exports is due to the implementation of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) by the main export destination countries in international trade. The most widely applied NTMs policies in trading countries are Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barrier to Trade (TBT). This study aims to analyze the impact of NTMs on Indonesia's natural rubber exports from 2012 to 2016. The estimation result shows the GDP coverage ratio of SPS and coverage ratio of TBT significantly affect the export value of the natural rubber of Indonesia. SPS variable shows a negative coefficient value while the TBT variable shows a positive coefficient value. Keywords: Natural Rubber, Gravity Model, Inventory Approach, NTMsJEL Classification: F13, F14, Q17

Бондовые склады: современная инфраструктура торговли сельскохозяйственной продукцией

Abstract. Bonded warehouses are the most important infrastructure link in the distribution systems of the leading countries in international trade. The largest transnational companies of such States, having a piece number of bond structures, provide huge supplies of their products to the domestic and international markets. The purpose of the study was to justify the need to develop bonded warehouses and bonded zones in Russia in order to create infrastructure conditions for the development of production and trade in agricultural products. Research methods included observations, groupings, comparisons, and statistical evaluations. According to the results of the study, it was determined that bond structures in Russia are regulated by legal documents applicable to temporary storage warehouses, adopted within the framework of the common economic space of the member States of the Eurasian economic Union. The procedure for temporary storage in bonded warehouses allows avoiding tax and other duties, obtaining licenses, permits, etc., entering products into the customs regime and filing a Declaration during the storage period. In addition, bonded warehouses provide users of their services with economic benefits due to lower prices for services, comprehensive maintenance, and faster product movement. The analysis showed that in Russia, bonded warehouses and zones have a low level of development: their number and capacity are insufficient, and the services offered are limited to transport, warehouse, and customs. At the same time, warehouse activity in Russia is highly profitable: the profitability of assets is 2.3 times higher than the indicator for the economy as a whole. For further development of bonded warehouses in Russia, it is recommended to increase their capacity in the regions that are key in the production and trade of agricultural products, expand the services provided, and integrate with agricultural producers. The scientific novelty of the work consists in substantiating the theoretical foundations of the role and necessary characteristics of bonded warehouses as an infrastructure basis for the development of trade in agricultural goods in Russia.

Studi Empiris Government Effectiveness dan Trade Openness terhadap Perdagangan Internasional

This study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors such as Inflation, Exchange Rates, Total Labor Force, Technology, Worldwide Government and Trade Openness on International Trade in 10 Islamic countries as the main actors of international trade Intra-OKI from 2005 to 2018. Quantitative research This applies the Panel Data Regression method to the Fixed Effect Model. Research analysis techniques use the EViews 10. software program. Empirical results show that inflation and total labor force, government effectiveness and trade openness have a significant positive effect to Intra-OKI international trade. This means that the better the quality of worldwide government and trade openness in a country will increase the country's international trade activities. In addition, exchange rates and technology do not have a significant effect in Intra-OKI international trade.

Evaluation of asymmetry of indicators in international trade: a case study for Ukraine

Methods. In the process of studying medicines imports in Ukraine, methods of analysis and synthesis, observation method, methods of induction and deduction, methods of comparative analysis, graphical, logical and tabular methods were used. The methodological basis of the study was the methods of comparative analysis (mirror analysis) and observations, which made it possible to assess the level of asymmetry in international trade indicators. To identify trends in the level of relative discrepancies between counter flows, a graphical method was used. The generalization method was used to systematize the relative deviations of international trade indicators in physical and value terms. Results. The use of comparative analysis made it possible to establish discrepancies in the lists of partner countries in international trade. The discrepancy between the lists is partly explained by the methodological specifics of recognizing a country as a partner in import and export operations. The use of mirror analysis made it possible to reveal asymmetry in the volumes of import transactions with medicines in Ukraine and to prove that in some cases it has significant dimensions. Four types of asymmetry have been established in counter flows, which are formed under the influence of various factors. Interpretation of the results allowed establishing possible options for explaining the existing disagreements, including both shortcomings in the formation of customs reports and abuses in the field of international trade. Novelty. Mirror analysis applied to Ukraine’s import transactions with medicines revealed four types of asymmetry in commodity flows that arise from the inadequacy and low quality of customs reports, as well as from abuse in international trade. Practical value. The established reasons for the discrepancy between statistical data can be used to improve customs reporting, as well as to identify abuse in international trade in pharmaceutical products.

Research and Practice of Quantitative Models on The Freedom of Trade Based on AHP-FCE Method: Taking Major Countries in WTO as Examples

In recent years, protectionism and unilateralism in the field of international trade are increasing. The WTO-centric multilateral trade regime has been hit. By researching the index of trade freedom among countries in international trade, this paper takes five important countries in WTO as an example, and constructs the trade freedom index and the national trade freedom model. The study reviewed and analysed global and regional developments in cross-border trade and investigated five varialbes that impacted the index of trade freedom. Then the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method (FCE) is used to obtain the comprehensive evaluation matrix by fuzzy arithmetic processing through the evaluation index weight and fuzzy relation matrix. Therefore, the changing data of the index of trade freedom in five countries from 2017 to 2018 are obtained. It is discovered that there is a significant difference in the index of trade freedom among countries. What’s worse, the average of the global index has declined year by year. This phenomenon is caused by the decline of global trade volume and the prevalence of new trade barriers. In the end, this paper proposes the implementation of multilateral negotiations and the establishment of long-term penalties as possible solutions.

Ренессанс внешнеторговой политики протекционизма: теоретические и прикладные аспекты

Introduction. Changes in the balance of power in the global economy, the increasing role of the Asia-Pacific countries in international trade, the consequences of the global crisis of 2008–2009 led to a revision of foreign trade policy by both developed and developing countries, to an increased application of protective measures of national economy. Theoretical analysis. State economic policy aimed at protecting and realizing the interests of the national economy is protectionism in a broad sense. In a narrow sense, protectionism is considered as a foreign trade policy. The use of historical and logical methods in the study of the foreign trade policy of protectionism made it possible to identify the main stages of its development and the characteristics of each stage. Empirical analysis. The study analyzes the dynamics of the current and financial accounts of the balance of payments of Russia and the largest participants in international trade, shows the degree of their dependence on international trade and their vulnerability to the strengthening of protectionist measures. The article substantiates the need for Russia to pursue a policy of neo-protectionism, stimulate the generation of its own value chains and join regional chains, and actively participate in regional and preferential trade agreements. Results. At the new stage of the foreign trade policy of protectionism, its measures became more hidden, and the role of customs duties faded into the background. The desire to reduce non-tariff barriers, protect intellectual property rights, remove restrictions associated with manipulating the exchange rate, encourage regional integration, the conclusion of preferential trade agreements. In the future, having fulfilled a progressive role, regional and preferential agreements can be transformed into multilateral ones. The creation of a mechanism for such a transformation may become a new function of the reformed WTO.

Changing role of middle income economies in contemporary international trade: comparative analysis

Objective: The purpose of this paper is to analyze selected international trade indicators, and then to verify, if assumption of growing importance of middle income economies (according to the World Bank classification) can be justified. Research Design & Methods: Article consists of two main parts. In the former some shifts in international merchandise trade in 1995-2018 have been analyzed. In the latter the assessment of selected trade indicators has been included, with particular regard to those, which could be utilized as a basis for verification of growing importance of middle income countries in international trade. Findings: Between 1995 and 2018 there was a noticeable improvement of middle income countries’ share in global merchandise trade, and their competitive advantage improved dramatically. As confirmed by RCA index analysis, middle income economies improved significantly in all manufactures, and was particularly high in labour-intensive and resource-intensive manufactures, as well as in low-skill and technology-intensive manufactures. Contribution & Value Added: Analyses concerning economy groupings are still relatively rare, especially in Polish economic literature. Therefore the presented research can be perceived as a quite fresh approach in this field. Finally, usage of wide collection of trade indicators for verification of middle income economies’ international significance should also be treated as a strength of presented paper.

Maritime Economy and Gwadar Port: A Growth Catalyst

Today maritime economy recognizes the seas and oceans as the main driving force for the sustainable economic growth across the globe. Pakistan with its unique geographic location is blessed with approximately 1050 km long coastline and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covering an area of about 240,000 sq km. In a brief history of globalization, seaborne trade and sea ports have made significant contributions towards socioeconomic development, thereby strengthening economic ties among states of various regions. Similarly, Pakistan's Gwadar port emerges as an ideal hub port in the region due to its unique strategic placement to attract trade from Central Asia, Afghanistan, west China and other countries due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), which is the main shipping route, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Today, Gwadar's geostrategic positioning enables it to monitor and control the oil trade routes and Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs) between the regions of South Asia, West Asia, Africa and Central Asia. Gwadar's deep–sea port characteristic is one of the rare features which equips it to expand its operation to the 88 berths and capacity to anchor gigantic vessels from 100,000 DWT to 200,000 DWT. The working capacity of the Gwadar Port is equal to the Persian Gulf ports. This paper attempts to determine the potential and strength of the Gwadar Port as a growth catalyst for Pakistan as the country's international trade is directed through the sea.

What makes globalization really new? Sociological views on our current globalization

AbstractReducing globalization to transnational movements and exchanges prevents us from understanding the specificity of our contemporary globalization, which was preceded by earlier waves of globalization. In particular, in the middle of the nineteenth century, many of the dimensions of our globalization had already been identified: the mobility of people, the expansion of trade, financial and cultural flows worldwide, and international cooperation. For example, as early as the 1850s, Marx diagnosed a ‘global’ expansion of capitalism bringing together many of the features of our contemporary globalization. In this article, I thus raise the question of the specificity of our globalization. What makes it new when compared to previous globalization processes? The main sociological theories of globalization in the 1990s relied on the thesis of a transition from a national to a global era. Many sociologists have therefore identified new aspects of our contemporary globalization. I explore six of those in turn: the invention of the terms ‘global’ and ‘globalization’ themselves; the rise of ‘transmigrations’; the rise of value chains, logistics, and ‘emerging’ countries in international trade; global cities and informational capitalism as new geographies of transnational financial flows; the threat to cultural diversity posed by a globalizing culture; and a sociology of globalization that is less and less monopolized by privileged or specific actors, becoming, on the contrary, increasingly ordinary and widespread.

The Dynamics of Changing Comparative Advantage in ASEAN-4: Flying Geese Model

Globalization makes all the economic activities of the country becomes more open. Trade openness leads to increasingly fierce competition conditions and then raises a competitiveness. This competitiveness is the key for each country to develop products to be exported. Competitiveness is one of the criteria that determine the success of a country in international trade. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of changes in comparative advantages occurring in ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand) in 1989 to 2016 using Product Mapping method which combines calculations between RSCA and TBI in each product classification. The results show that each country has different comparative advantages, including Indonesia which has a comparative advantage for unskilled-labor product classification (TPT and garment) and on primary product (oil and its derivative products) and is the leader for both products. Then the Philippines has a comparative advantage for the classification of technology intensive products (electronics) which is also a leader in the product. In addition, the results of research also found a change in comparative advantage as well as product specialization, including Thailand which no longer has a comparative advantage on human-capital intensive products (rubber and derivative products) but still a net-exporter. So it is with Indonesia who no longer has a comparative advantage on natural-resource products (lead) but still a net-exporter.

ISO 14001 and international trade

The purpose of this paper is to study potential association between international trade and ISO 14001 certification. The study is based upon a search conducted by International Organization for Standardization (ISO) performed in 2013, which includes responses from 110 countries in 11 languages. At this time, among all topics from the research, the variables studied were motivations for implementation and the benefits achieved. These data were crossed with features of international business trade to identify its real outcome. The null hypothesis to be tested is that there was no correlation or association between international trade and the studied variables. Results show that there were 16 weak correlations between motivations to implement ISO 14001 and international trade. The survey result shows that there are weak correlations among countries international trade and motives to get certification. Because the degrees of correlation are low, there is reason to further studies, what could probably include multivariate techniques. Anyway, the study suggests that some of the expected results and benefits for the business were not achieved or were achieved at degrees lower than expected in countries where trade is higher. Regarding motivations to implement the survey confirmed that attending to customers’ and stakeholders’ interests is an important driver for companies that export.

Revealed comparative advantages and regional specialization: Evidence from Colombia in the Pacific Alliance

ABSTRACTThis paper is a methodological contribution to the calculation and use of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indexes. We first explain why the RCA index of Contribution to the Trade Balance (CTB) is theoretically relevant. However, as other RCA indexes might also be reliable measures of comparative advantages, we present standardized tools to compare RCA indexes computed for a given set of countries, products and periods. We illustrate with Colombia in the Pacific Alliance. In that case, the CTB index should be preferred to eight other representative RCA indexes. Therefore, the CTB index might be useful for empirical analysis, besides its theoretical relevance. Last, we suggest highlighting products that constitute strengths (weaknesses) for a country in international trade according to its ability to maintain through time the highest (lowest) CTB index compared with other countries. Again, we illustrate with Colombia in the Pacific Alliance and discuss implications for Colombian economic policy.

Prospects of free trade with China: development of domestic export and risks of import dependence

Development of the trade between Ukraine and China generates serious challenges for the national economy, because, presently, the trade with China accounts for more than a half of Ukraine's negative balance in this country's international trade in goods (56% in January-November 2018). Despite the risks of further deterioration of trade balance, Ukraine has suggested to start consultations on the Ukraine-China free-trade agreement (FTA). The purpose of the paper is to estimate the possible impact of the liberalization of trade with China and to develop recommendations for raising exports and suppressing China's goods expansion on domestic market. In order to investigate the problem and shape the outlook for domestic exports to China, the following steps have been made: (1) compared the structure of external trade in goods of Ukraine and China; (2) evaluated the trade regimes' symmetry between China and Ukraine; (3) identified the characteristics of China's non-tariff trade regulations; (4) analyzed special ties features of negotiating with China on FTA; (5) analyzed the situation with the development of domestic export to China, and identified prospective markets for domestic goods; and (6) analyzed the dynamics of imports of goods from China during 2004-2018. Also, discussed the groups of import goods that are top items by absolute volume and possess a high share in imports and in local domestic consumption. Analysis of the structure of trade flows between Ukraine and China showed that the most probable development scenario in the trade with China is the increased orientation of Ukrainian export on raw materials and empowering of Ukraine's dependence on the import of Chinese industrial goods. Probability of this scenario is increasing since the trade regimes of Ukraine and China are asymmetrical, which creates unequal conditions of trade that are more preferable for China. It was found that, even in case of trade liberalization as the result of FTA negotiations between China and Ukraine, Ukraine could not expect sustainable increase in exports of agri-food goods, as China has special non-tariff regulations in domestic agri-food markets. Among the core directions of the government policy of supporting the development of agricultural export to China is promotion of corn export in accordance with the credit agreement of 2012 between State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine and Export-Import Bank of China, and soybean export promotion with the purpose to substitute US in the Chinese import soybean market, which opened up as a result of US-China trade disputes in 2017-2018. Negative trends in bilateral trade are the reason for active government policy promoting the export of processed goods to China, first of all the products of food industry and optical photographic instruments and apparatus that are of high demand in local Chinese markets. Import dependence of domestic local market remains high without significant signs of decrease. In 2017, the ratio between import and GDP was the highest for the recent 17 years. During 2013-2017, this ratio increased from 0.51 to 0.56. Dependence of Ukraine's economy on import could increase further as a result of liberalization of the trade with China. Despite the benefits for exporters (mostly exporters of raw goods), cheap Chinese import could delay the renaissance of the domestic light industry that has gradually started after a sharp decline in 2013-2015. Dynamics of goods import from China during 2004-2018 was analyzed, and discussed groups of goods that are the top import items by absolute volume, possess a high share in imports and in local domestic consumption. The research was conducted on agricultural and agri-food goods, and for 4- and 6- digit codes. Presence of Chinese goods in domestic market is constantly increasing. In 2002-2003, balance of trade between Ukraine and China was positive, and the share of China's goods in market was below 2%, but, starting from 2005, the trade balance has been always negative with share of Chinese goods increasing to 13% (2018). Machinery accounted for more than a half of Chinese import in 2018, with machinery, instruments and equipment making the highest share. China is the main exporter of telephone equipment for cellular networks, computers and notebooks, photo-sensitive semi-conductors, light-emitting diodes and other innovative and high technology products. China possesses top positions in imports of household electronics and appliances, light industry goods (shoes, toys, synthetic textiles etc.) and other goods. In 74 out of 178 analyzed 4-digit groups of goods, China's share in import in 2017 was higher than 50%. From the position of domestic market protection, trade liberalization with China could cause high risks for domestic producers. Assortment of industrial goods that are imported from China is very extensive, hence their expansion in domestic market could be quite significant. The publication was prepared during the research work "The modernization of economic policy of field of activities and markets development" (state registration number 0118U007329).

Can country trade flows benefit from improved corporate social responsibility ratings?

We set out in this study to examine the effects of country ‘corporate social responsibility’ (CSR) ratings on the international trade flows of 28 countries. Drawing on categorization theory, we examine whether country CSR engagement is a categorizing factor capable of influencing the overall process of categorization. Based upon a two-stage approach, comprising of gravity and panel Tobit models, we find that a country's CSR rating has significantly positive effects on the country's international trade flows. When the CSR rating of a country is higher than that of another rival trading country, this will have significantly positive effects on the bilateral trade flows between the two countries.

An Error Correction Model Analysis of Indonesia’s Tourism and International Trade

The tourism sector is the mainstay of Indonesia's foreign exchange contributor. Through its affordability with various other sectors, tourism is considered to be able to influence the country's international trade through the mechanism of exports and imports. This study aims to analyze the influence of tourism on Indonesia's trade balance in the short and long term. The theory of comparative advantage and Heckscher-Ohlin are aimed to answer the purpose of this study. Using the Error Correction Model (ECM), this research shows that tourism has a positive and significant impact on exports and imports in the long and short term. However, in the long term the influence of tourism on imports is greater than that of exports. The opposite thing is happened in the short term.Keywords: tourism, international trade, Error Correction Model

RUSSIA’S IMPACT ON THE COMPETITIVENESS OF OTHER EAEU MEMBER STATES WITH RESPECT TO TRADE IN HIGH-TECH GOODS

The main objective of this article is to determine the influence of Russia (in terms of their exports to Russia) on the competitiveness of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the international trade of high-tech goods in 2000-2016 in the context of the overall competitiveness of these countries in the international trade in this goods category. To this end, the author’s formula was used, which is a modification of the method of analysis of revealed comparative advantages in foreign trade of a given country developed by B. Balassa, while taking into account a hypothetical situation of total exclusion of exports to a country whose impact on the competitiveness of a given country is under examination. The analysis clearly shows that the influence of Russia (in terms of their exports to Russia) on the international competitiveness of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the area of high-tech goods trade in 2000-2016 was generally positive, although it differed in terms of strength of the impact, with the strongest being the case of Belarus and the weakest being the case of Armenia. However, this did not change the overall uncompetitive position of the analysed EAEU countries in the total international trade of high-tech goods.

Exchange Rate Devaluation and Balance of Trade in Nigeria: An Error Correction Model Approach

An effective and stable exchange rate forms the major policy trust of monetary authority because it determines the external and internal balance of a nation in terms of trade position and stability of other macroeconomic variables. This study assessed the effect of exchange rate on balance of trade in Nigeria employing data that spanned from 1986 to2016 from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study employed Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Co-integration Test and Error Correction Model to examined the effect of balance of trade, exchange rate, export, import and interest rate. Correlation matrix was adopted to examine the direction of relationships among the macroeconomic variables. The stationary test result indicated that, all the variables were stationary at first difference. Also, the Johansen Co-integration test result indicated that there is a long run equilibrium relationship among the macroeconomic variables. The result of the Error Correction Model regression indicated that both export and import had significant effect on balance of trade while exchange rate and interest rate had insignificant effect on balance of trade. Based on findings of the study it was concluded that, exchange rate regime in Nigeria had insignificant effect on Nigeria trade balance which has continued to effect the country's international trade position negatively. It was recommended that, monetary authorities should design effective exchange rate regime so to ensure exchange rate stability which has the capacity to improve the trade position of the country. Government should ensure macroeconomic variables stability. Variables like interest rate, inflation rate and others should be closely monitored and controlled so as to provide stable environment that is capable of enhancing local investments.

Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China

The rapid development of the shipping industry requires the use of large vessels carrying high-volume cargoes. Accidents incurred by these vessels can lead to a heavy loss of life and damage to the environment and property. As a leading country in international trade, China has developed its waterway transport systems, including inland waterways and coastal shipping, in the past decades. A few catastrophic shipping accidents have occurred during this period. This paper aims to develop a new risk analysis approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs) to enable the analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation. Although the risk data are derived from accidents that occurred in China's waters, the risk factors influencing accident severity and the risk modelling methodology are generic and capable of generating useful insights on waterway risk analysis in a broad sense.To develop the BN-based risk model, waterway accident data are first collected from all accident investigation reports by China's Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) from 1979 to 2015. Based on the derived quantitative data, we identify the factors related to the severity of waterway accidents and use them as nodes of the risk model. Second, based on a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, an augmented naïve BN (ABN) model is selected through a comparative study with a naïve BN (NBN) model to analyse the key risk factors influencing waterway accident severity. The results show that the key factors influencing waterway safety include the type and location of the accident and the type and age of the ship. Moreover, a novel scenario analysis is conducted to predict accident severity in various situations by combining different states (e.g., high risk) of the key factors to generate useful insights for accident prevention. More specifically, the findings can aid transport authorities, ship owners and other stakeholders in improving waterborne transportation safety under uncertainty.