Counterfactual Thinking Research Articles

“Should’ve known better”: Counterfactual processing in disordered gambling

Counterfactual thinking is a component of human decision-making that entails “if only” thinking about unselected choices and outcomes. It is associated with strong emotional responses of regret (when the obtained outcome is inferior to the counterfactual) and relief (vice versa). Counterfactual thinking may play a role in various cognitive phenomena in disordered gambling, such as the effects of near-misses. This study compared individuals with gambling disorder (n = 46) and healthy controls (n = 25) on a behavioural economic choice task that entailed choosing between two gambles, designed to measure counterfactual thinking. Participants provided affect ratings following both the obtained and the non-obtained outcomes. Choices were analyzed using a computational model that derived parameters reflecting sensitivity to expected value, risk variance, and anticipated regret. In the computational choice model, the group with gambling disorder showed increased sensitivity to anticipated regret, reduced sensitivity to expected value, and increased preference for high risk-variance gambles. On the affect ratings, the group with gambling disorder displayed blunted emotional sensitivity to obtained and counterfactual outcomes. Effect sizes of the group differences were modest. Participants with gambling disorder show wide-ranging alterations in decision-making processes and emotional reactivity to choice outcomes. Altered sensitivity to anticipatory regret in gambling disorder may contribute to the development of gambling-related cognitive distortions, and the influences of gambling marketing.

Dispositional optimism weakly predicts upward, rather than downward, counterfactual thinking: A prospective correlational study using episodic recall.

Counterfactual thoughts center on how the past could have been different. Such thoughts may be differentiated in terms of direction of comparison, such that upward counterfactuals focus on how the past could have been better, whereas downward counterfactuals focus on how the past could have been worse. A key question is how such past-oriented thoughts connect to future-oriented individual differences such as optimism. Ambiguities surround a series of past studies in which optimism predicted relatively greater downward counterfactual thinking. Our main study (N = 1150) and six supplementary studies (N = 1901) re-examined this link to reveal a different result, a weak relation between optimism and upward (rather than downward) counterfactual thinking. These results offer an important correction to the counterfactual literature and are informative for theory on individual differences in optimism.

Bittersweet: The Neuroscience of Ambivalent Affect

Ambivalent affective states, such as bittersweetness, nostalgia, and longing, which are felt as having both positive and negative aspects, are an important component of human experience but have received little attention. The most influential theoretical frameworks in affective neuroscience focus largely on univalenced states. As a result, it is not known whether ambivalent affect corresponds to a simultaneously positive and negative valenced state or whether it results from a rapid vacillation between positive and negative states. Here we hypothesize that ambivalent affect involves both mechanisms, that is, rapid vacillation and simultaneity of positive and negative affect, albeit at different neurobiological levels. Rapidly vacillating univalent emotions could give rise to an ambivalent feeling, a mechanism that depends on brainstem nuclei that facilitate rapid action programs of emotional behavior while inhibiting opposing behaviors. This reciprocal inhibition prevents organisms from simultaneously implementing responses to conflicting emotions but also allows for rapid switching between emotions triggered by counterfactual thinking and rapid reappraisal of situations. We propose that as these transitions occur and respective interoceptive information reaches the insular cortex, further processing of this “emotional moment” would allow separate emotional events to be experienced as one “mixed” and integrated feeling.

How expert witnesses' counterfactuals influence causal and responsibility attributions of mock jurors and expert judges

SummaryPast research has shown that counterfactual (“If…then…”) thoughts influence causal and responsibility attribution in the judicial context. However, little is known on whether and how the use of counterfactuals in communication affects lay jurors' and judges' evaluations. In two studies, we asked mock lay jurors (Study 1) and actual judges (Study 2) to read a medical malpractice case followed by an expert witness report, which included counterfactuals focused on either the physician, the patient, or external factors. Results showed that counterfactual focus had a strong effect on both lay jurors' and judges' causal and responsibility attributions. Counterfactual focus also moderated the effect of outcome foreseeability on responsibility attribution. Discussion focuses on how counterfactual communication can direct causal and responsibility attribution and reduce the importance of other factors known to influence judicial decision‐making. The potential implications of these findings in training programs and debiasing interventions are also discussed.

Exploring a causal model in observational cohort data: The role of parents and peers in shaping substance use trajectories

AimsTo explore the process of applying counterfactual thinking in examining causal determinants of substance use trajectories in observational cohort data. Specifically, we examine the extent to which quality of the parent-adolescent relationship and affiliations with deviant peers are causally related to trajectories of alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use across adolescence and into young adulthood. MethodsData were drawn from the Australian Temperament Project, a population-based cohort study that has followed a sample of young Australians from infancy to adulthood since 1983. Parent-adolescent relationship quality and deviant peer affiliations were assessed at age 13–14 years. Latent curve models were fitted for past month alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use (n = 1590) from age 15–16 to 27–28 years (5 waves). Confounding factors were selected in line with the counterfactual framework. ResultsFollowing confounder adjustment, higher quality parent-adolescent relationships were associated with lower baseline cannabis use, but not alcohol or tobacco use trajectories. In contrast, affiliations with deviant peers were associated with higher baseline binge drinking, tobacco, and cannabis use, and an earlier peak in the cannabis use trajectory. ConclusionsDespite careful application of the counterfactual framework, interpretation of associations as causal is not without limitations. Nevertheless, findings suggested causal effects of both parent-adolescent relationships and deviant peer affiliations on the trajectory of substance use. Causal effects were more pervasive (i.e., more substance types) and protracted for deviant peer affiliations. The exploration of causal relationships in observational cohort data is encouraged, when relevant limitations are transparently acknowledged.

Upward and Downward Counterfactual Thought After Loss: A Multiwave Controlled Longitudinal Study

Counterfactual thoughts, mental simulations about how a situation may have turned out differently (i.e., “if only …, then …”), can reduce mental health after stressful life-events. However, how specific counterfactual thought types relate to post-loss mental health problems is unclear. We hypothesized that self-referenced upward counterfactuals (i.e., “If only I had done …, then the current situation would be better”) may serve as cognitive avoidance, thereby perpetuating loss-related distress. Conversely, downward counterfactuals (i.e., “If … had happened, then the current situation could have been [even] worse”) may facilitate benefit finding, thereby reducing distress. In a longitudinal survey, self-referent, other-referent, and nonreferent upward counterfactuals, and nonreferent downward counterfactuals were assessed at baseline. Prolonged grief and depression symptoms were assessed at baseline, and 6- and 12-month follow-ups. Multiple regression analyses assessed associations between counterfactual thoughts and symptom levels in 65 recently bereaved people who generated counterfactual thoughts about the loss-event. Moderator analyses assessed the unicity of significant effects in the previous step, by comparing these effects in 59 people generating loss-related counterfactuals with those in 59 propensity-score matched participants generating counterfactuals about other negative life-events. Multivariate analyses showed that nonreferent upward counterfactuals were uniquely strongly positively associated with prolonged grief and depression symptoms concurrently. Self-referent upward counterfactuals were uniquely positively associated with prolonged grief and depression symptoms longitudinally. Moderator analyses confirmed that thinking about how one’s (in)actions could prevent a death uniquely exacerbated prolonged grief and depression severity. Prolonged grief treatment may be improved by targeting self-blame and guilt.

화장품 사용경험이 사후가정사고와 귀인에 미치는 영향 : 브랜드 인지도의 조절효과를 중심으로

화장품 사용경험이 사후가정사고와 귀인에 미치는 영향 : 브랜드 인지도의 조절효과를 중심으로

Norms in Counterfactual Selection

AbstractIn the hopes of finding supporting evidence for various accounts of actual causation, many philosophers have recently turned to psychological findings about the influence of norms on counterfactual cognition. Surprisingly little philosophical attention has been paid, however, to the question of why considerations of normality should be relevant to counterfactual cognition to begin with. In this paper, I follow two aims. First, against the methodology of two prominent psychological accounts, I argue for a functional approach to understanding the selectivity of counterfactual cognition. Second, I take some steps towards a systematic analysis by providing a qualitative, decision‐theoretic account of one important function of counterfactual thinking, namely, inferring, in the face of undesirable outcomes, corrective policies that prevent the occurrence of similar outcomes in future circumstances. I make a case for employing this analysis by (a) showing its value for assessing the rationality of imagination‐driven counterfactual generation, (b) highlighting its use for making sense of practices in history and policy analysis where counterfactual selection plays a central role, and (c) demonstrating its diagnostic value for identifying areas where counterfactual generation may lead us into epistemic and ethical troubles.

4 3 2 1, The Book of Endlessly Forking Paths

4 3 2 1, Paul Auster’s 2017 novel, is a creative exploration of counterfactual thinking – thinking about what might have been. 4 3 2 1 departs from the premise that “the real […] also consist[s] of what could have happened but didn’t”. This premise dictates Auster’s narrative strategy, which involves the juxtaposition of four alternative versions of the protagonist’s character and life. The novel’s structural principle evokes Borges’ iconic story, “The Garden of Forking Paths”, where the Argentinian author toys with the idea of bifurcating time and parallel fictional lives. In the vein of this Borgesian conceit, the time-line of Auster’s novel is also split into forking paths, deploying four different destinies of four protagonists by the same name, one of whom eventually turns out to be the author of the other three. If counterfactuals are conveyed through the imaginative creation of alternative realities, all fiction may be considered counterfactual. But Auster’s latest novel is still unique. Ever since Aristotle, fiction has aspired to mimesis, to a recognizable representation of reality. By broadening the concept of reality, Auster has created a new kind of mimesis, which blends the representation of the actual with that of the potential. The present paper offers a reading of 4 3 2 1 from the perspective of counterfactual thinking and examines its characteristics and cognitive value.

Serial Dual Mediating Effects of Preschoolers’ Executive Functions and Counterfactual Thinking on Relationship between Maternal Reflective Functioning and Preschoolers’ Higher-order Thinking

This study examined the dual mediating effects of preschoolers’ executive function and counterfactual thinking in the relationship between maternal reflective functioning and preschoolers’ higher-order thinking. Participants included 293 preschoolers and their mothers in Daegu city and Gyeongsang province. The mothers completed questionnaires regarding their reflective functioning, preschoolers’ executive function, and creative thinking. Teachers completed questionnaires regarding preschoolers’ critical thinking and caring thinking. Preschoolers’ counterfactual thinking was measured by interviews. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation analysis with SPSS 25.0. Path analysis and bootstrapping were used with AMOS 25.0 program. Also, specific indirect effect were analyzed using AMOS user-defined estimand function. The primary results of this study are as follows. Maternal reflective functioning had an indirect effect on preschoolers’ critical thinking and caring thinking through preschoolers’ executive function and counterfactual thinking; however, maternal reflective functioning had no indirect effect on preschoolers’ creative thinking through preschoolers’ executive function and counterfactual thinking. This study revealed that maternal reflective functioning and preschoolers’ executive function and counterfactual thinking need to be considered simultaneously to explain the level of preschoolers’ higher-order thinking. The results highlight the dual mediating effects of preschoolers’ executive function and counterfactual thinking in the relationship between maternal reflective functioning and preschoolers’ higher-order thinking.

Characteristics of personally important episodic memories, counterfactual thoughts, and future projections across age and culture

SummaryWe have limited knowledge as to whether the phenomenological differences between episodic memories, counterfactuals, and future projections show the same pattern across age groups and diverse samples. Here we compared the characteristics of these mental events, reported by younger and older participants in a Turkish (Study 1) and in an American sample (Study 2). In both studies, memories contained more sensory‐perceptual‐spatial details, were easier to bring to mind, and more specific. Future projections were the most positive, whereas counterfactuals were the least emotionally intense. In Study 1, older participants rated the events more positively and experienced them with more perceptual detail, whereas younger participants reported the future to be more voluntarily rehearsed, important, and central. These age differences did not replicate in Study 2. Overall, phenomenological differences between the events are robust and replicate across diverse samples. However, age differences are more sensitive to cultural or individual differences.

Differential contribution of anterior and posterior midline regions during mental simulation of counterfactual and perspective shifts in autobiographical memories

Retrieving autobiographical memories induces a natural tendency to mentally simulate alternate versions of past events, either by reconstructing the perceptual details of the originally experienced perspective or the conceptual information of what actually occurred. Here we examined whether the episodic system recruited during imaginative experiences functionally dissociates depending on the nature of this reconstruction. Using fMRI, we evaluated differential patterns of neural activity and hippocampal connectivity when twenty-nine participants naturally recalled past negative events, shifted visual perspective, or imagined better or worse outcomes than what actually occurred. We found that counterfactual thoughts were distinguished by neural recruitment in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, whereas shifts in visual perspective were uniquely supported by the precuneus. Additionally, connectivity with the anterior hippocampus changed depending upon the mental simulation that was performed – with enhanced hippocampal connectivity with medial prefrontal cortex for counterfactual simulations and precuneus for shifted visual perspectives. Together, our findings provide a novel assessment of differences between these common methods of mental simulation and a more detailed account for the neural network underlying episodic retrieval and reconstruction.

Rumination as a Mediator of the Associations Between Moral Injury and Mental Health Problems in Combat-Wounded Veterans.

Moral injury is hypothesized to develop from witnessing or engaging in events that violate one's beliefs about themselves and has been shown to be associated with negative mental health symptoms. Although there has been an increase in research examining moral injury among military veterans, mechanisms that link moral injury to mental health outcomes are not well understood. The present study examined rumination subcomponents (problem-focused thoughts, counterfactual thinking, repetitive thoughts, and anticipatory thoughts) as possible mediators of the associations between moral injury (both self-directed and other-directed symptoms) and negative mental health symptoms (i.e., depression, anxiety, suicidality, sleep disturbance, memory problems, and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms). Participants were 189 combat wounded veterans (180 men; Mean age = 43.14 years) who had experienced one or more deployments (defined as 90 days or more). Nearly all participants reported a service-connected disability (n = 176, 93.1%), with the average participant reporting a 90% total VA disability ranking, and most participants had received a purple heart (n = 163, 86.2%). Within our comprehensive mediation model, we found eight significant mediation effects with the most consistent mediator being problem-focused thoughts. Specifically, both self-directed and other- directed moral injury were associated with increased problem-focused thoughts, which in turn was associated with higher reported symptoms of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Taken together, rumination, and in particular, problem-focused thoughts, is relevant to understand the increased vulnerability of military veterans to exhibit poor mental health outcomes when experiencing moral injury.

Looking Behind and Looking Ahead: Personality Differences in Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) involves the mental simulation of alternatives to the past. In contrast, prefactual thinking (PFT) simulates potential outcomes that have yet to happen. Individuals differ in the extent to which they think in these ways, but we know little about how personality is implicated in these differences. This study investigated the relationship between Big Five personality traits and levels of spontaneous CFT and PFT embedded within a fictional diary entry. Results indicated that CFT was related to high neuroticism and low agreeableness, while PFT was related to low neuroticism and high agreeableness, as well as high extraversion. This suggests that CFT and PFT are, in part, dispositionally based and may be predicted by Big Five measures. This has implications for our understanding of individual differences in terms of the functionality of CFT and PFT and their potential influence on life outcomes.

Cardiovascular stress reactions in recent- and long-retired rugby players when watching a game

While hospital admissions for cardiac causes on a population level appear to rise when the national team is playing in a sporting fixture, little research has examined cardiovascular reactions in spectators watching a sporting event. In a sample of 41 male supporters of a rugby team, all of whom had played the sport themselves, cardiovascular levels and psychological ratings of stress and anxiety were measured pre- and post-match. Counterfactual thinking was also assessed. Mixed factorial ANOVA analyses showed that in supporters who had recently retired from playing, psychological ratings of stress and anxiety were significantly lower pre-match compared to those who had long-retired (all ps < 0.001). However, significant phase × player status interactions identified that systolic blood pressure, F(1, 39) = 13.93, p = .001, partial ƞ2 = 0.26, diastolic blood pressure, F(1,39) = 24.62, p < .001, partial η2 = 39, and heart rate, F(1, 39) = 23.02, p < .001, partial η2 = 0.37, increased significantly in recent-retired players compared to long-retired players, indicating that they found watching the match more stressful than the long-retired players. Furthermore, this effect was moderated by counterfactual thinking in recent-retired players only, where greater levels of counterfactual thinking was associated with greater cardiovascular reactivity. These findings confirm that watching a sporting fixture induces cardiovascular reactivity in spectators who recently retired from the sport, with counterfactual thinking a possible underlying pathway.

Going beyond a positive–negative dichotomy in judgment and decision‐making research: Insights for framing, counterfactual thinking, and ambivalence

AbstractMany areas of judgment and decision‐making research have historically relied on a simple positive–negative dichotomy (e.g., positive vs. negative framing). Although this classic assumption about the conceptual space has contributed to some of the field's more impactful findings (e.g., framing effects), it may also have mistakenly led us to believe that these findings told a complete story about biases in processing positive and negative information. Building on a tradition of theoretical accounts outlining how positive and negative information is more complex, the first part of this paper considers how the following three elements jointly help to tell a more complete story about framing effects: (a) regulatory focus theory's concept of the domain (loss vs. gain) of an outcome, (b) the sequencing of positive and negative frames, and (c) the asymmetric influences of positive and negative evaluative processes. Next, the paper reviews research that has contributed to integrating these elements, highlighting opportunities for further integration to generate new insights for framing effects, risky decision‐making, counterfactual thinking, and ambivalence. The reviewed studies suggest that a more sophisticated conceptualization of positive and negative information contributes to a deeper understanding of the basic processes that govern human judgment and decision‐making.

Collective harmony as a moderator of the association between other-referent upward counterfactual thinking and depression

The current study aimed to investigate a recently observed significant positive relationship between other-referent upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms in a Filipino sample by exploring whether collectivist harmony may determine when other-referent upward counterfactual thinking confers risk for depression. An online survey was completed by 598 university-educated residents of the Philippines (Mage = 29.74, SD = 10.27; Range = 18 to 71). As hypothesised, both other-referent upward counterfactuals and collective harmony were significantly positively associated with depression. A moderation analysis revealed that other-referent upward counterfactual thinking was positively related to depression at low and moderate levels of harmony but not at high levels of harmony. This interaction suggests that generating other-referent upward counterfactuals may increase depression among individuals who adhere to low or moderate harmony maintenance norms, and that individuals with high harmony are likely to experience high levels of depression irrespective of their generation of other-referent upward counterfactuals. However, the predictive effect of this interaction was small, which may limit its practical significance. Possible implications of these results are discussed.

What is and what never should have been: Children’s causal and counterfactual judgments about the same events

Substantial research with adults has characterized the contents of individuals’ counterfactual thoughts. In contrast, little is known about the types of events children invoke in their counterfactual thoughts and how they compare with their causal ascriptions. In the current study, we asked children open-ended counterfactual and causal questions about events in which a character’s action enabled a force of nature to cause a minor mishap. Children aged 3.5–8 years (N = 160) tended to invoke characters’ actions in their counterfactual judgments to explain how an event could have been prevented (e.g., “She should have closed the window”) and tended to invoke forces of nature in their causal judgments (e.g., “The rain got it wet”). Younger children were also significantly more likely than older children to invoke forces of nature in their counterfactuals (e.g., “It shouldn’t have rained”). These results indicate that, similar to reasoning patterns found in adults, children tend to focus on controllable enabling conditions when reasoning counterfactually, but the results also point to some developmental differences. The developmental similarities suggest that counterfactual reasoning may serve a similar function from middle childhood through adulthood.

Improving workplace safety by thinking about what might have been: A first look at the role of counterfactual thinking

Introduction: Information processing theories of workplace safety suggest that cognition is an antecedent of safety behavior. However, little research has directly tested cognitive factors as predictors of workplace safety within organizational psychology and behavior research. Counterfactuals (cognitions about “what might have been”) can be functional when they consist of characteristics (e.g., “upward’ – focusing on better outcomes) that alter behavior in a manner consistent with those outcomes. This field study aimed to examine the influence of counterfactual thinking on safety behavior and explanatory mechanisms and boundary conditions of that relationship. Method: A sample of 240 medical providers from a hospital in China responded to three surveys over a four-month time frame. Results: Results showed that upward counterfactuals were positively related to supervisor ratings of safety compliance and participation. These relationships were mediated by safety knowledge but not by safety motivation. Upward counterfactuals were more strongly related to safety behavior and knowledge than downward counterfactuals. As expected, safety locus of control strengthened the mediating effects of safety knowledge on the relationship between upward counterfactuals and safety behavior. Conclusions and Practical Applications: The findings demonstrated that counterfactual thinking is positively associated with safety behavior and knowledge, thus expanding the variables related to workplace safety and laying some initial groundwork for new safety interventions incorporating counterfactual thinking.

Psychometric Properties and Contribution to Mental Health of the Bulgarian version of the 4-Factor Ruminative Thought Style Questionnaire.

The Ruminative Thought Style Questionnaire (RTSQ) is a multifaceted measure of general trait rumination. However, there is no instrument for measuring rumination in Bulgarian, which limits progress in the field. We aimed to validate the RTSQ in Bulgarian and examine its psychometric properties and contribution to several mental health outcomes. We sampled 529 undergraduate students (18 – 35 years; 33.6% male; 80.9% Bulgarian) from the Medical University in Plovdiv, Bulgaria. They completed a questionnaire asking about rumination (RTSQ), mental health, and sociodemographic information. The RTSQ was first translated to Bulgarian. Its internal consistency was assessed with Cronbach’s alpha. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed on the 4-factor RTSQ, and multi-group CFA examined its measurement invariance. Structural equation modelling was used to test the relations between the RTSQ factors, depression, anxiety, and resilience to stress. The RTSQ had acceptable internal consistency (α ≥ 0.8) and its 4-factor model had good fit to the data. In addition, its measurement invariance was supported across languages and cultures of administration. We observed differential associations with depression, anxiety, and resilience, with some of the RTSQ factors emerging as maladaptive (problem-focused thoughts and repetitive thoughts), while others as neutral (anticipatory thoughts) or potentially supportive of resilience (counterfactual thinking). The RTSQ was successfully validated in Bulgarian and represents a reliable measure of trait rumination. It could be useful in gaining further insight into strategies adopted by individuals to cope with stressors and could help develop interventions supporting healthy coping styles. These findings should be replicated in other non-clinical/clinical populations.