Counterfactual Thinking Research Articles

“If only” counterfactual thoughts about cooperative and uncooperative decisions in social dilemmas

We examined how people think about how things could have turned out differently after they made a decision to cooperate or not in three social interactions: the Prisoner’s dilemma (Experiment 1), the Stag Hunt dilemma (Experiment 2), and the Chicken game (Experiment 3). We found that participants who took part in the game imagined the outcome would have been different if a different decision had been made by the other player, not themselves; they did so whether the outcome was good or bad for them, their own choice had been to cooperate or not, and the other player’s choice had been to cooperate or not. Participants who only read about a fictional protagonist’s game imagined changes outside the protagonist’s control (such as the other player’s decision) after a good outcome but within the protagonist’s control (such as the protagonist’s decision) after a bad outcome. The implications for theories of counterfactual thinking and moral decision-making are discussed.

Counterfactual Thinking in Sustainable Tourism Context

This study investigated the emotional and behavioral potential of counterfactual thinking within sustainable tourism. Despite the growing interest in the determinants of sustainable tourist behavior, studies hardly seek detailed cognitive explanations. Furthermore, use of selective samples, survey techniques or other data-driven methods prevent existing frameworks from establishing causal linkages to attitudes or behavior. Across two experimental studies, counterfactual thinking—a goal-oriented cognitive process—was investigated with respect to environmental attitudes and behavioral improvement. Findings provided evidence for the utility of counterfactuals in the sustainable tourism domain. Feelings for the environment of a destination may change, and intentions for sustainable behavior may improve as a consequence of counterfactual thoughts. Theoretical and practical implications were discussed for sustainable tourism and environmental behavior.

Regret and Therapeutic Decisions in Multiple Sclerosis Care: Literature Review and Research Protocol.

Background: Decisions based on erroneous assessments may result in unrealistic patient and family expectations, suboptimal advice, incorrect treatment, or costly medical errors. Regret is a common emotion in daily life that involves counterfactual thinking when considering alternative choices. Limited information is available on care-related regret affecting healthcare professionals managing patients with multiple sclerosis (MS).Methods: We reviewed identified gaps in the literature by searching for the combination of the following keywords in Pubmed: “regret and decision,” “regret and physicians,” and “regret and nurses.” An expert panel of neurologists, a nurse, a psychiatrist, a pharmacist, and a psychometrics specialist participated in the study design. Care-related regret will be assessed by a behavioral battery including the standardized questionnaire Regret Intensity Scale (RIS-10) and 15 new specific items. Six items will evaluate regret in the most common social domains affecting individuals (financial, driving, sports—recreation, work, own health, and confidence in people). Another nine items will explore past and recent regret experiences in common situations experienced by healthcare professionals caring for patients with MS. We will also assess concomitant behavioral characteristics of healthcare professionals that could be associated with regret: coping strategies, life satisfaction, mood, positive social behaviors, occupational burnout, and tolerance to uncertainty.Planned Outcomes: This is the first comprehensive and standardized protocol to assess care-related regret and associated behavioral factors among healthcare professionals managing MS. These results will allow to understand and ameliorate regret in healthcare professionals.Spanish National Register (SL42129-20/598-E).

Using counterfactual thinking theory to change alcohol protective behavioural strategy use intentions.

Despite numerous drinking interventions, alcohol use among college students remains a significant problem. Typically activated after negative events, counterfactual thinking is a cognitive process that contrasts reality with an imagined better alternative. As a result, counterfactual thinking highlights potential causal links between problematic behaviours and negative outcomes, which can strengthen intentions to change behaviour. Recent research has found that modifying behavioural intentions to engage in protective behavioural strategies (PBS) has led to increased PBS use and reduced alcohol outcomes. The current study evaluated counterfactual thinking as a way to increase PBS use intentions. Intervention US study with college student drinkers. A sample of college students (n = 466) completed a web-based assessment of demographics, drinking, alcohol consequences, and PBS use. Those who endorsed an adverse drinking event were randomly assigned to an intervention condition (Control, Negative event only, Negative event with description, or Negative event with counterfactual). Following the intervention, participants reported intentions to engage in each PBS subtype over the next week. Relative to control, the counterfactual condition resulted in greater PBS use intentions across all subtypes. Neither the negative event only nor the negative event with description resulted in higher PBS use intentions, relative to control. Importantly, the control group did not report whether they experienced a negative event; thus, we cannot definitively determine the effect this may have on the data. This study provides a new theory-driven avenue for alcohol use interventions utilizing counterfactual thinking to enhance safe drinking intentions.

Prefrontal tDCS attenuates counterfactual thinking in female individuals prone to self-critical rumination

The tendency to ruminate (i.e., repetitive negative self-referential thoughts that perpetuate depressive mood) is associated with (a) an elevated propensity to maladaptively experience counterfactual thinking (CFT) and regret, and (b) hypo-activity of the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). The goal of this study was to investigate whether anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over the left DLPFC, in function of self-critical rumination tendencies, momentarily reduces counterfactual thinking and regret (assessed via self-report and psychophysiological indices). Eighty healthy participants with different levels of self-critical rumination received either anodal or sham tDCS while performing a decision making task in which they were repeatedly confronted with optimal, suboptimal, and non-optimal choice outcomes. The results showed that among rumination-prone individuals, anodal (versus sham) tDCS was associated with decreased CFT and attenuated psychophysiological reactivity to the differential choice outcomes. Conversely, among low rumination-prone individuals, anodal (versus sham) tDCS was associated with increased CFT and regret, but in absence of any effects on psychophysiological reactivity. Potential working mechanisms for these differential tDCS effects are discussed. Taken together, these results provide initial converging evidence for the adaptive effects of left prefrontal tDCS on CFT and regret to personal choice outcomes among individuals prone to engage in self-critical rumination.

Counterfactual thinking and facial expressions among Olympic medalists: A conceptual replication of Medvec, Madey, and Gilovich's (1995) findings.

Counterfactual thinking, or contemplation of "what could have been," influences facial expressions of Olympic medalists. Medvec, Madey, and Gilovich (1995) revealed that bronze medalists appeared happier than silver medalists after competition in Olympic events. Two prominent explanations for this phenomenon exist: the formation of (a) category-based counterfactuals and (b) expectation-based counterfactuals. First, Medvec et al. (1995) demonstrated that silver medalists formed an upward comparison to the gold medalist with thoughts of "I almost won Gold" while bronze medalists formed a downward comparison to a fourth place finisher with thoughts of "at least I won a medal." A second explanation suggests that medalists form expectation-based counterfactuals in which silver medalists are more disappointed since their prior expectations for performance were higher than bronze medalists (McGraw, Mellers, & Tetlock, 2005). To test these 2 explanations, we compiled a large dataset of medal stand photographs from the Olympic Multimedia Library and Getty Images for the 2000-2016 Olympic games as well as Sports Illustrated's predictions. Using automated facial expression encoding, we conducted a conceptual replication of prior work and found evidence supporting both category-based and expectation-based counterfactual accounts of Olympic medalists' expressions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Memory and Counterfactual Simulations for Past Wrongdoings Foster Moral Learning and Improvement.

In four studies, we investigated the role of remembering, reflecting on, and mutating personal past moral transgressions to learn from those moral mistakes and to form intentions for moral improvement. Participants reported having ruminated on their past wrongdoings, particularly their more severe transgressions, and they reported having frequently thought about morally better ways in which they could have acted instead (i.e., morally upward counterfactuals; Studies 1-3). The more that participants reported having mentally simulated morally better ways in which they could have acted, the stronger their intentions were to improve in the future (Studies 2 and 3). Implementing an experimental manipulation, we then found that making accessible a morally upward counterfactual after committing a moral transgression strengthened reported intentions for moral improvement-relative to resimulating the remembered event and considering morally worse ways in which they could have acted instead (Study 4). We discuss the implications of these results for competing theoretical views on the relationship between memory and morality and for functional theories of counterfactual thinking.

A comprehensive review of measures of protective behavioral strategies across various risk factors and associated PBS-related interventions.

Harm reduction is a framework that places substance use on a spectrum from total abstinence to continued controlled use. Protective behavioral strategies (PBS) are a set of individually implemented harm reduction strategies that have shown to reduce the rate of use and severity of consequences from risky behaviors. Previous research has shown that PBS use effectively reduces negative consequences. The present study provides an overview of the literature on PBS measures for various risk behaviors, and common interventions used in conjunction with PBS. Of the articles reviewed, 15 validated PBS measures were found and eight distinct categories of PBS interventions. The 15 measures reviewed included risk factors such as alcohol use/consequences (n = 8), dating and sexual behaviors (n = 4), gambling (n = 1), cannabis (n = 1), and condom use (n = 1). A survey of the literature produced eight distinct categories of interventions with varying degrees of effectiveness: (a) Brief Motivational Interventions, (b) Personalized Normative Feedback, (c) PBS Skills Training, (d) PBS Instruction, (e) Deviance Regulation Theory Interventions, (f) Behavioral Economic Based Interventions, (g) Counterfactual Thinking and (h) Episodic Future Thinking. Findings from the present study corroborate the notion that PBS effectively reduce negative consequences associated with behaviors, such as negative alcohol-related consequences, harmful cannabis use, and adverse sexual outcomes. Research on interventions targeting PBS is lacking in areas outside of alcohol use. Within alcohol use, the utility of interventions varies widely. Understanding the reason for this discrepancy is an important area for future research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Counterfactual Thinking: What Theories Do in Design

ABSTRACT This essay addresses a foundational topic in applied sciences with interest in design: how do theories inform design? Previous work has attributed theory-use to abduction and deduction. However, design is about creating an intervention, a possible state that does not exist presently, and these accounts fail to explain how theories permit taking this leap. We argue that the practical value of a theory lies in counterfactual thinking. Theories are like “speculation pumps”: they produce (pump) counterfactual thought experiments of the type: If design was <like this>, then interaction would be <like that>. The more valid these thought experiments are and the better they direct the solution of design problems toward desirable and reliable outcomes, the more useful the theory. Counterfactual thinking sheds new light to design methods and, importantly, can reconcile an underlying tension between design sciences and applied sciences.

Allocating the REDD+ national baseline to local projects: A case study of Cambodia

This study aimed to propose a set of decision support tools to allocate Cambodia's REDD+ national baseline or initial forest reference level (FRL) to local REDD+ projects, based on their forest cover and forest carbon stocks, and the historical deforestation trends in their reference regions. Our samples included 77 hypothetical REDD+ projects and five actual REDD+ projects. To identify reference regions for our samples, a cluster analysis of 127 districts in Cambodia was conducted using the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm (or k-medoids method). To calculate the baseline amount to be allocated to projects, four allocation methods were proposed. Two methods used ‘snapshot’ variables (i.e., [1] existing forest area or [2] forest carbon stock) and two used ‘change’ variables (i.e., [3] historical forest area change or [4] historical forest carbon stock change from 2006 to 2014). We weighted the baseline by the deforestation risk in 2014. We found that ‘snapshot’ methods tended to allocate more baseline if the project had more forest cover or forest carbon stocks. In contrast, ‘change’ methods tended to allocate more baseline if the project has more forest area loss or forest carbon stock loss between 2006 and 2014 in its reference region. These differences suggest that the ‘snapshot’ methods do not consider the inequity in the amount of baseline allocated to the projects. This inequity stems from the different degree of effort made by project stakeholders to protect their forests. The degree of effort varies depending on the historical deforestation trend in a project's reference region. However, the ‘change’ methods explicitly incorporate the trend into their calculations of baseline allocations. Technically, the ‘change’ method [4] seems to be the desired choice for allocating FRL to local projects; this is because it fits best with the idea of counter-factual thinking using a ‘reference period’ that a national baseline must have under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ‘change’ methods are less likely to stimulate further deforestation, in a jurisdiction with high forest cover or forest carbon stocks that does not have a REDD+ project, compared with the ‘snapshot’ methods. However, the ‘change’ methods are more likely to face the challenge of political adjustment to balance the reduced emissions from some jurisdictions/projects with increased emissions from the other jurisdictions/projects, compared with the ‘snapshot’ methods. The findings are applicable not only in Cambodia but also in other REDD+ countries that include deforestation as one of the five REDD+ activities, within the scope of their national baseline submission to the UNFCCC. The study's outcomes will facilitate stakeholder dialogue on the proportions of national baseline allocated to sub-national programs/projects by showing the technical and political implications of the proposed allocation methods.

Attribute Substitution, Counterfactual Thinking, and Heterodox Economics

This paper examines how attribute substitution (AS), central to the psychology of choice and behavioral economic reasoning, can be understood when combined with counterfactual thinking (CFT), often called ‘what if’ or ‘if only’ thinking, and how their combination creates important opportunities for the seeing heterodox economics as a single research program alternative to mainstream economics. The first section of the paper discusses AS, CFT, and what a AS-CFT behavioral framework involves, and then emphasizes how this framework departs from fundamental assumptions mainstream rational choice theory employs. The second section reviews the foundations of behavioral thinking regarding AS, describes what it involves when it includes attention to CFT, distinguishes between more automatic and more reflective types of behavioral adjustment. It notes that heterodox economics has generally emphasized ecological rationality and bounded rationality in its use of AS. The third section then discusses how six prominent heterodox approaches can each be understood to draw on this combination of AS and CFT, and how this represents common ground for a shared critique of the mainstream economic approach. What distinguishes them is how they differ regarding the weight and emphasis placed on more automatic versus more reflective types of behavioral adjustment. The fourth section argues that within this shared framework these different heterodox approaches practice a division of labor in how they address different aspects of economic life understood in behavioral and counterfactual terms.

An appeal for more rigorous use of counterfactual thinking in biological conservation

An appeal for more rigorous use of counterfactual thinking in biological conservation

Counterfactual thoughts and regret intensity as correlates of depressive symptoms among polytechnic students in Nigeria

Counterfactual thoughts and regret intensity as correlates of depressive symptoms among polytechnic students in Nigeria

Counterfactual Thinking among University Students

The importance of the research stems from the importance of its variables and the scarcity of Arab and local studies on them, and from the importance of the research sample - university students - who are considered among the most important segments of society, as the research community consisted of (23,353) students from the morning study for the academic year (2020-2021), As for the research sample, it consisted of (467) male and female students, with a percentage of (2%) from the research community, and to measure the research variables, the researcher prepared a measure of counterfactual thinking, and to identify the results of the research objectives, the researcher used the Statistical Analysis Package (SPSS), which showed a high level of Counterfactual thinking among university students, and based on the results reached, the researcher presented a set of conclusions and recommendations as well as proposals.

Enhancing dieters' perseverance in adversity: How counterfactual thinking increases use of digital health tracking tools

ObjectivesDieting is a cognitively taxing task that does not always advance well-being. A dieting lapse may result in overconsumption that undermines long-term health goals. This research explores how a process known as counterfactual thinking (CFT), reliving an event to figure out where things went wrong, may help consumers faced with a temptation to indulge. Consumers who engage in upward CFT generate an alternative set of steps or actions that could have changed the outcome in a situation. We investigate if and how CFT may be used strategically to help consumers stick to their dieting goal and advance their own well-being. MethodsA 2 (CFT vs. control) x 2 (dieter vs. non-dieter) between-subjects factorial design was used to evaluate participant interest in a digital health tracking tool after viewing an advertisement (Study 1). Study 2 was conducted as a follow-up to measure their use of the digital tracking tool, intentions to continue to use, and calories consumed (as tracked in the system) after a two-week period using the digital tracking tool advertised in Study 1. ResultsWe find that engaging in upward CFT increases a dieter's intentions to track their food, a practice emerging as a strategy to help maintain goal consistency. Among dieters, perceived feasibility mediated the impact of CFT on both ad evaluations (Study 1) as well as intentions to continue to use the digital health tracking tool (Study 2). In the follow-up study we also find that dieters in the CFT condition used more of the online features offered and that all consumers in the CFT condition ate marginally fewer calories across two weeks of tracking using the digital health tool. DiscussionEncouraging consumers to generate upward counterfactual thoughts in the face of a dieting lapse increases their propensity to use an online tracking tool and reduces calories consumed. In the age of digital tracking tools, personalized prompts could be set to encourage CFT to help get a consumer back on track to pursue their healthy eating goals.

Why Build a Robot With Artificial Consciousness? How to Begin? A Cross-Disciplinary Dialogue on the Design and Implementation of a Synthetic Model of Consciousness.

Creativity is intrinsic to Humanities and STEM disciplines. In the activities of artists and engineers, for example, an attempt is made to bring something new into the world through counterfactual thinking. However, creativity in these disciplines is distinguished by differences in motivations and constraints. For example, engineers typically direct their creativity toward building solutions to practical problems, whereas the outcomes of artistic creativity, which are largely useless to practical purposes, aspire to enrich the world aesthetically and conceptually. In this essay, an artist (DHS) and a roboticist (GS) engage in a cross-disciplinary conceptual analysis of the creative problem of artificial consciousness in a robot, expressing the counterfactual thinking necessitated by the problem, as well as disciplinary differences in motivations, constraints, and applications. We especially deal with the question of why one would build an artificial consciousness and we consider how an illusionist theory of consciousness alters prominent ethical debates on synthetic consciousness. We discuss theories of consciousness and their applicability to synthetic consciousness. We discuss practical approaches to implementing artificial consciousness in a robot and conclude by considering the role of creativity in the project of developing an artificial consciousness.

Counterfactual thinking and recency effects in causal judgment

People tend to judge more recent events, relative to earlier ones, as the cause of some particular outcome. For instance, people are more inclined to judge that the last basket, rather than the first, caused the team to win the basketball game. This recency effect, however, reverses in cases of overdetermination: people judge that earlier events, rather than more recent ones, caused the outcome when the event is individually sufficient but not individually necessary for the outcome. In five experiments (N = 5507), we find evidence for the recency effect and the primacy effect for causal judgment. Traditionally, these effects have been a problem for counterfactual views of causal judgment. However, we argue that an extension of a recent counterfactual model of causal judgment explains both the recency and the primacy effect. In line with the predictions of our extended counterfactual model, we also find that, regardless of causal structure, people tend to imagine the counterfactual alternative to the more recent event rather than to the earlier one. Moreover, manipulating this tendency affects causal judgments in the ways predicted by this extended model: asking participants to imagine the counterfactual alternative to the earlier event weakens the interaction between recency and causal structure, and asking participants to imagine the counterfactual alternative to the more recent event strengthens the interaction between recency and causal structure. We discuss these results in relation to work on counterfactual thinking, causal modeling, and late-preemption.

Take Nothing for Granted: Downward Social Comparison and Counterfactual Thinking Increase Adolescents’ State Gratitude for the Little Things in Life

While gratitude in adulthood has been widely studied, less is known about gratitude among adolescents, particularly when it comes to its determinants. Previous work suggests that feeling thankful implies some kind of comparative judgment. Given that downward social comparison and downward counterfactual thinking share many similarities, we assumed that both types of comparative thinking would be related to increases in adolescents’ levels of state gratitude. Two scenario-based studies conducted on Romanian high school students are reported. In Study 1, participants read vignettes depicting daily life events which resulted in small benefits for the main characters. Relative to the control group, adolescents in downward social comparison and downward counterfactual thinking conditions felt more grateful and estimated that the benefit was more valuable. In Study 2, we used a pretest–posttest design to test the same hypotheses and to examine whether the experimental manipulation could also be linked to increases in negative affect. Results show that after engaging in downward comparative thinking, participants reported more gratitude, as well as decreased levels of negative emotion. In both studies, the relation between downward comparative thinking and state gratitude was mediated by the perceived value of the benefit. These findings draw attention to the relative nature of gratitude, by pointing to the fact that it can be easily influenced by changes in the reference point with which one compares oneself.

Counterfactual thinking in psychiatric and neurological diseases: A scoping review.

The ability to simulate alternatives to factual events is called counterfactual thinking (CFT) and it is involved both in emotional and behavioral regulation. CFT deficits have been reported in psychiatric and neurological conditions, possibly contributing to patients' difficulties in modulating behaviors and affections. Thus, acknowledging the presence and possible consequences of CFT impairments might be essential for optimal clinical management. This scoping review aims to summarize the previous evidence about CFT in psychiatric and neurological diseases to determine the extent of the previous research and what has been discovered so far, the variety of clinical conditions considered, the methodologies adopted, and the relevant issues to be addressed by future investigations. PsycInfo, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched to identify articles published up to January 2020, written in English and focused on CFT in adults affected by psychiatric or neurological conditions. Twenty-nine studies have been included; most of them focused on psychiatric conditions, a minority considered neurological diseases. The generation of counterfactual thoughts related to a negative real-life or a fictional event and the counterfactual inference test were the most popular tasks adopted. CFT impairments were reported in both psychiatric and neurological conditions, likely associated with a fronto-executive dysfunction. Future research might further explore CFT in those psychiatric and neurological conditions in which CFT difficulties have been preliminary reported. Furthermore, it would be recommendable to extend this investigation to all the clinical conditions possibly at risk of fronto-executive dysfunction. In the end, we speculate that since CFT plays a role in driving everyday behaviors, it might be crucial also when medical decisions are involved; thus, future research might extend the investigation of CFT especially to those populations that implicate complex clinical management.

Causal inference concepts applied to three observational studies in the context of vaccine development: from theory to practice

BackgroundRandomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard to evaluate causal associations, whereas assessing causality in observational studies is challenging.MethodsWe applied Hill’s Criteria, counterfactual reasoning, and causal diagrams to evaluate a potentially causal relationship between an exposure and outcome in three published observational studies: a) one burden of disease cohort study to determine the association between type 2 diabetes and herpes zoster, b) one post-authorization safety cohort study to assess the effect of AS04-HPV-16/18 vaccine on the risk of autoimmune diseases, and c) one matched case-control study to evaluate the effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine in preventing hospitalization for rotavirus gastroenteritis.ResultsAmong the 9 Hill’s criteria, 8 (Strength, Consistency, Specificity, Temporality, Plausibility, Coherence, Analogy, Experiment) were considered as met for study c, 3 (Temporality, Plausibility, Coherence) for study a, and 2 (Temporary, Plausibility) for study b. For counterfactual reasoning criteria, exchangeability, the most critical assumption, could not be tested. Using these tools, we concluded that causality was very unlikely in study b, unlikely in study a, and very likely in study c. Directed acyclic graphs provided complementary visual structures that identified confounding bias and helped determine the most accurate design and analysis to assess causality.ConclusionsBased on our assessment we found causal Hill’s criteria and counterfactual thinking valuable in determining some level of certainty about causality in observational studies. Application of causal inference frameworks should be considered in designing and interpreting observational studies.