Costs Of Crime Research Articles

The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone

We estimate the effect of short-term air pollution exposure (PM2.5 and ozone) on several categories of crime, with a particular emphasis on aggressive behavior. To identify this relationship, we combine detailed daily data on crime, air pollution, and weather for an eight-year period across the United States. Our primary identification strategy employs extremely high dimensional fixed effects and we perform a series of robustness checks to address confounding variation between temperature and air pollution. We find a robust positive effect of increased air pollution on violent crimes, and specifically assaults, but no relationship between increases in air pollution and property crimes. The effects are present in and out of the home, at levels well below Ambient Air Pollution Standards, and PM2.5 effects are strongest at lower temperatures. The results suggest that a 10% reduction in daily PM2.5 and ozone could save $1.4 billion in crime costs per year, a previously overlooked cost associated with pollution.

Sanctuary City and Crime

A sanctuary policy is a policy that inhibits local law enforcement from cooperating with immigration authorities. Sanctuary policies have gained more attention in recent U.S. policy debates. Opponents claim that sanctuary policies attract criminals and lower the opportunity cost of crime through weaker sanctions and lower apprehension probability. Supporters counter that these policies produce a spiral of trust that supports police and raises informal social control over crime. Using city crime data from 1999 to 2010, I estimate the effect of sanctuary policies on crime. Using a difference-in-differences approach, this paper finds no evidence that sanctuary policies cause an increase in crime and some evidence that they may lead to a decrease in property crime. Moreover, further analysis confirms no pre-trend before the policy adoption and finds the effect strengthened over time after the adoption. The increased trust between residents and police is likely the reason for the negative effect.

More sneezing, less crime? Health shocks and the market for offenses

A large literature points out that exposure to criminal victimization has far-reaching effects on public health. What remains surprisingly unexplored is that role that health shocks play in explaining aggregate fluctuations in offending. This research finds novel evidence that crime is sensitive to health shocks. We consider the responsiveness of crime to a pervasive and common health shock which we argue shifts costs and benefits for offenders and victims: seasonal allergies. Leveraging daily variation in city-specific pollen counts, we present evidence that violent crime declines in U.S. cities on days in which the local pollen count is unusually high and that these effects are driven by residential violence. While past literature suggests that property crimes have more instrumental motives, require planning, and hence are particularly sensitive to permanent changes in the cost and benefits of crime, we find that violence may be especially sensitive to health shocks.

The Cost of Gun Crime: Evidence from Gun Offender Registry on Housing Values

In this study, we estimate the cost of gun crime using a revealed preference framework by relying on an institutional change in Baltimore City, Maryland, that mandates public disclosure of the gun offender registry. We exploit the sharp localized change in perceived crime risk after gun offenders move into the neighborhood and examine its impact on housing values in the vicinity. Our estimates indicate that houses closest to gun offenders experience 7.1% decline in value ($9,100) after the offenders move in, and the probability of sales is 43% lower. Collectively, public disclosure of a gun offender’s residence costs homeowners around $888 million. We construct a simple model to estimate the cost of gun victimization from these house price discounts. Based on our preferred specification, the cost of gun crime victimization is around $1.5 million and, assuming a 20% fatality rate, the value of statistical fife is approximately $9.0 million.

Valuing the public’s demand for crime prevention programs: a discrete choice experiment

The objectives of the study were (a) to utilize a state-of-the-art survey methodology previously employed in the environmental, health, and safety economics literatures to estimate the cost of violent crime and homicide in Buenos Aires and (b) to demonstrate the feasibility of this method for crime cost estimation and for using these surveys in developing countries. The study used a random sample of households from an online panel in Buenos Aires. Respondents were asked to choose among three options with factorial design varying homicide rate, violent crime rate, policy measures to reduce crime, and tax impact (with one option being status quo). Discrete choice modeling was utilized to estimate willingness-to-pay for reduction in risk of homicide and violent crime as well as independent values for two policy options. The cost of homicide in Buenos Aires is estimated to be approximately $1.5 million, whereas the cost of other violent crimes (including rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) is estimated to average $2000. In addition to extending intangible crime cost estimates to Latin America, we simultaneously estimate the value of two comprehensive crime control policies, with values ranging from $600 to $700 million/year, about $12 per household per month each. Discrete choice experiments can be credibly adopted to estimate the cost of crime. We implement this method in a Latin American country, where the estimated costs in Buenos Ares are consistent with those found in developing countries once controlling for income differences. These subjective crime cost valuations are significantly higher than tangible crime costs and, thus, provide a significant improvement in the ability of policy makers to conduct social benefit–cost analysis.

More Tourism, More Crime: Evidence from Croatia

For all its benefits, mainly through contributing to economic growth, tourism can cause certain negative externalities, increased crime incidence being one of them. More crime leads to immediate costs to residents, tourists and the host country, but can also imperil the destination’s image and fend off tourists in the future. We study the impact of tourism on crime in Croatia by estimating the elasticity of property crime with respect to tourist arrivals on monthly panel data at the county level over the period 1998–2016. We find robust evidence that tourism increases property crime. The elasticity varies spatially and by type of property crime, being higher in coastal than in continental counties, and higher for theft than for larceny. The estimates are used for counter-factual calculations which show that, had tourism been the only factor affecting property crime, the number of crimes would have evolved over 2006–2016 to a much higher level than it actually has. The elasticities are large enough that, absent sufficiently strong countervailing factors, even a moderately paced tourism growth can bring a sizeable increase in property crime over a decade. From the policy perspective, it is important to understand the countervailing factors and to consider the costs of tourism-induced crime in social cost-benefit assessments of tourism growth.

The business of farm crime: evaluating trust in the police and reporting of offences

Annual estimates of the total cost of farm crime to the UK economy amount to the region of £45 m (NFU in NFU Rural Crime Report 2018. https://www.nfumutual.co.uk/news-and-stories/rural-crime-report-2018/, 2018). The purpose of this study was to assess the extent, effects and responses to farm crime from key stakeholders, principally the police and farming population. Survey responses were collected from farmers (n = 96) in rural Wales. Key findings suggest that the main categories of farm crime including machinery and livestock theft were similar to national patterns. Perceptions of organised crime groups from outside the local area being responsible for criminal activity were also prevalent. Satisfaction and trust in the police was generally healthy, despite awareness that the investigation and prosecution of farm and/or rural crime was often not being adequately resourced. The implications of this research propose that a broad lack of police training/experience, insight into farming issues generally, and wider organisational resource commitment, all hinder effective policing of farm business crime.

The Monetary Costs of Crime for a Sample of Offenders in Ontario

The monetary costs of criminal offending were calculated for a sample of 386 male offenders, between the ages of 12 and 26 years, in Ontario over a 15-year period. Cost estimates were obtained for four components: (1) victim costs; (2) correctional costs; (3) other criminal justice system (e.g., police, court, prosecution, legal aid) costs; and (4) undetected crimes. Results indicate that the aggregate longitudinal cost of offending for the sample was more than $671 million, or an average of $1.74 million per person. Factoring in undetected crime increased aggregate costs to $2.26 billion, or $5.86 million per person. The cost to victims for violent offending was approximately 10 times higher than for property offences ($165 million vs. $17 million). The costliest period was mid- to late adolescence, consisting of individuals between the ages of 15 and 17, which accounted for 40% of the total costs. During this interval, youths within the study committed a relatively large number of property crimes, which resulted in open and closed custody dispositions, driving up correctional costs. The results of this study demonstrate that tremendous monetary savings can be gained if effective developmental crime prevention programs successfully target high-risk youth early in their lives.

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi Criteria Decision Making Approach to Crime Linkage Using Resemblance Function

Serial Crimes cost a lot to our society and leave very appalling impact on our society in psychological level. Furthermore, the investigations are often very troublesome in the absence of reliable evidences. From a large number of criminal cases of similar types it is difficult to find the crimes that were committed by the same offenders. Crime linkage is the step by step process by which an investigator studies and detects the crimes related by common offenders. In this paper, a new idea of resemblance among a set of intuitionistic fuzzy set has been introduced. In addition, an intuitionistic fuzzy multi criteria decision making approach has been used to perform crime linkage analysis. This methodology will enable an investigator to find degree of extent for sharing of a common offender or offenders.

REVEALING THE TRUE COST OF FINANCIAL CRIME, FOCUS ON EUROPE

In March 2018, Refinitiv commissioned a global survey to better understand the true cost of financial crime and to raise awareness of its wider impact on business, individuals and society as a whole. In total, over 2,300 senior managers from large organizations across 19 countries participated. We also supplemented the survey findings by conducting in-depth research and holding interviews with leading NGOs (Education Endowment Foundation, Transparency International UK and Walk Free Foundation) and the European Union’s law enforcement agency to gain perspective on the human cost of financial crime. This report specifically examines the findings in Europe.

How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?

AbstractCities across the U.S. have turned to summer youth employment programs (SYEPs) to improve the behavioral, economic, and academic outcomes of inner‐city youth. This paper evaluates the impact of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program using both experimental and non‐experimental variation. Similar to previous studies of summer jobs programs in other cities, I make use of an embedded randomized controlled trial and find that the program reduces violent crime by 35 percent, as measured by the number of arraignments from administrative records during the 17 months after participation. In contrast to prior work, I also find a similar reduction in arraignments for property crimes (−29 percent). This study also provides exploratory evidence on the mechanisms driving these reductions in crime using self‐reported responses of participants from a pre‐/post‐program survey. The results provide suggestive evidence that the beneficial impacts on violent and property crime are largely driven by improved conflict resolution skills versus other factors that would increase the opportunity cost of crime. These findings give researchers some insights into the behavioral changes that occur during the program while also providing a look inside the “black box” as to how SYEPs affect youth outcomes in the long run.

Property Rights, Predation, and Productivity*

AbstractI develop a neoclassical growth model with imperfect property rights in which predation entails both waste of resources and deadweight losses. According to the model, in the United States, the welfare costs of crime represent a loss of 18.6 percent of consumption per capita. This loss is 57.8 percent for a country in the average of the last decile of the distribution of an index of business costs of crime across 94 countries. An increase of one standard deviation in the institutional quality index increases GDP per worker by 23 percent for a country in the average of the last decile of its distribution.

The Monetary Costs of Criminal Trajectories for a Sample of Offenders in Ontario, Canada

The past 20 years have seen an increase in the number of studies on the monetary costs of crime. More recently, researchers have turned to trajectory analysis to derive longitudinal cost estimates to generate more precise figures across subgroups of offenders. This approach is thought to provide policy makers with more nuanced information for informed decision-making about the targeted allocation of limited resources. The present study adds a Canadian perspective to the literature by providing cost estimates for seven criminal trajectory groups generated for a sample of male offenders in Ontario, Canada, based on their longitudinal pattern of offending from ages 12 to 26 years. The study sample consisted of 386 individuals who had been sentenced between 1986 and 1997 as juvenile offenders to one of two open custody facilities in Toronto. Costs included victim-related costs, disposition-related correctional costs, other criminal justice costs, and costs of undetected crimes. The total aggregate, longitudinal cost of offending was 2.26 billion, or an average of 5,855,318 per person. Across the seven trajectories, average costs varied from a low of 3,546,154 per person in the low desister group to a high of 16,954,604 per person in high late group. Given the high monetary costs incurred by crime victims, the correctional system, and by other aspects of the criminal justice system, investments in crime prevention programs for those at risk for a high highrate criminal trajectory are likely to yield long-term cost savings. Similarly, prevention efforts aimed at moderate or even lower-risk groups may also yield positive benefit-to-cost ratios with effective, targeted interventions.

Integrated treatment program for alcohol related problems in community hospitals, Songkhla province of Thailand: A social return on investment analysis.

ObjectivesTo estimate the impacts and social value relative to the cost of the Integrated Management of Alcohol Intervention Program in the Health Care System (i-MAP) on direct beneficiaries, using a Social Return on Investment (SROI) analysis.MethodA mixed-method approach was conducted among stakeholders and 113 drinkers (29 low-risk, 43 high-risk, and 41 dependent drinkers) who consecutively received i-MAP at four community hospitals in Songkhla province of Thailand. Resources for program implementation as well as drinking and a list of psychosocial outcomes, selected through stakeholder interviews, were measured among participants during and at the sixth month after participation, respectively. SROI (societal benefit-to-cost) ratio of i-MAP was estimated over a 5-year time horizon and shown in 2017 Thai baht, where US$1.00 = 33.1 baht. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses of key parameters were performed among treatment subgroups.ResultsBaseline estimates of the annual cost and 5-year social value of i-MAP were 25.5 and 51.0 million baht, respectively, yielding an estimated SROI ratio of 2.0, with a possible range of 1.3 to 2.4. Value created by the program was mostly attributed to broader gains to society (productivity gains and averted crime costs) and drinkers. Subgroup analyses suggested that the SROI ratio for high-risk drinkers was twice that for dependent drinkers (2.8 vs. 1.5). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that more than 99% of the simulated treatments for both high-risk and dependent groups yielded benefits beyond the corresponding costs.ConclusionsBy considering societal perspective, the i-MAP program has demonstrated its social value is twice its investment cost and potential for the program to be implemented nationwide.

Economic-behavioral Analysis of Delinquent Acts Based on the Report of Juvenile Offenders in Confinement

Abstract From a behavioral-economic approach of delinquent behavior, this research aimed to identify potential consequences that could alter the cost of crime from the offender’s perspective. A questionnaire prepared to assess the level of informational and utilitarian reinforcement and punishment of these consequences was answered by 118 juvenile offenders in confinement. The reported level of informational reinforcement did not predict the level of multiplicity of offenses committed. The reported levels of utilitarian reinforcement, informational punishment, and utilitarian punishment predicted this level of multiplicity. Only the level of utilitarian punishment decreased the likelihood of an offender having been involved in more types of criminal acts. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Scaring or Scarring? Labour Market Effects of Criminal Victimisation

Little is known about the costs of crime to victims and their families. In this paper, we use unique and detailed register data on victimisations and labour market outcomes from the Netherlands to overcome data restrictions previously met in the literature and estimate event-study designs to assess the short- and long-term effects of criminal victimisation. Our results show significant decreases in earnings (6.6-9.3%) and increases in the days of benefit receipt (10.4-14.7%) which are lasting up to eight years after victimisation. We find shorter-lived responses in health expenditure. Additional analyses suggest that the victimisation can be interpreted as an escalation point, potentially triggering subsequent adverse life-events which contribute to its persistent impact. Heterogeneity analyses show that the effects are slightly larger for males regarding earnings and significantly larger for females regarding benefits. These differences appear to be largely (but not completely) driven by different offence characteristics. Lastly, we investigate spill-over effects on non-victimised partners and find evidence for a spill-over effect of violent threat on the partner's earnings.

An examination of the effects on crime of switching off street lighting

Prior reviews suggest that improving street lighting leads to a decrease in offending, but little is known about the effects of switching off street lighting. The present research investigates the effects of switching off street lighting in Maldon, Essex, by comparing police-recorded crime rates before and after, in Maldon and in the adjacent area of Braintree, Essex. After street lighting was switched off, burglary and vehicle crime increased relatively in Maldon, but criminal damage did not change, and violence decreased relatively in Maldon. Since violence is a costly crime, switching off street lighting in Maldon was not followed by an increase in the costs of crime. Possible explanations of these findings are discussed, including the fact that switching off street lighting in Maldon might have deterred people from going out at night.

The Monetary Costs of Crime for a Sample of Offenders in Ontario

The monetary costs of criminal offending were calculated for a sample of 386 male offenders, between the ages of 12 and 26 years, in Ontario over a 15-year period. Cost estimates were obtained for ...

Cost-effectiveness of raising alcohol excise taxes to reduce the injury burden of road traffic crashes

BackgroundAlcohol is an important risk factor for road transport injuries. We aimed to determine if raising alcohol taxes would be a cost-effective intervention strategy for reducing this burden.MethodsWe modelled the...

PMH45 - MODELLING THE BUDGETARY IMPACT OF TREATING OPIOID ADDICTION IN THE ENGLISH MUNICIPAL SETTING

Our model estimated budgetary impacts in terms of direct treatment costs and other services provided by local communities, including criminal justice, welfare, child safeguarding and healthcare. We modelled a large town in England across a one-year timeframe. Patients were assumed to receive opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and psychosocial support. Direct OAT costs (medicine acquisition, dispensing and supervised consumption) were based on published sources. Non-pharmacological intervention costs (e.g. counselling) were based on local expert opinion. Wider societal costs were based on published analyses of the National Treatment Outcome Research Study and published references. Expert opinion informed child safeguarding estimates. Two main clinical parameters drove costs: i. retention in treatment and ii. Proportion of urine samples which are free from illicit opioids (i.e. no ‘use on top’), these came from published trial data. 875 patients (50% of local opioid users) received OAT, 60% methadone and 40% buprenorphine. Treatment costs were £821,305. Indirect healthcare costs were £2.34m (£1.6m in users not seeking treatment). Crime costs were £13.4m (£9.1m for users not in treatment). The cost of children in care following parents dropping out of OAT, or not entering OAT at all, was £7.1m although this estimate was based on conservative assumptions. Potential additional cost of child safeguarding was explored in sensitivity analysis. Total cost associated with opioid-using population was £28.9m. If an additional 10% of patients were treated, this annual cost would be reduced by £1.7m. Our model shows that treating opioid addiction with OAT delivers a net cost saving to communities. New treatment approaches should address the issues that prevent users from seeking OAT. The model has potential to be adapted to local settings using locally-gathered evidence.