Disaster planning is one of the core roles for hospital leadership and public health bodies. As a result of climate change, there is increased urgency to prepare health care facilities to manage the care of patients during large storms. We hypothesize that planners can use Geographic Information Systems Mapping (GIS) to identify priority areas for emergency planning, model hurricane patterns within Connecticut (CT) and assess the impact on hospital accessibility, catchment area and pediatric surge. We mapped in GIS the 28 Connecticut (CT) acute care hospitals, roads, and the inundation layer of a Category (Cat) 4 Hurricane striking CT. Using pediatric data from the 2017 5-Year American Community Survey, which subset the CT population into 833 individual census tracts, alongside the cost distance and allocation tools in the ArcGIS Pro software, we calculated the pre- and post-flood catchment areas and maximum pediatric surge potential for the hospitals during a Cat 4 hurricane. A breakeven analysis for each hospital’s estimated storm-related pediatric surge was determined using the respective facility’s annually-averaged inpatient bed utilization data, reported to the state. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), along with estimates of total affected children, were used to identify high vulnerability priority areas for emergency planning. During a Cat 4 hurricane, the potential surge to individual hospitals ranged from 0 to 15,215 children. Relative to pre-flood, post-flood catchment numbers decrease for 5 hospitals whilst increasing for 7 hospitals, ranging from -1,535 to +2,135, respectively. Using SVI with GIS, 17 tracts with 521 children/tract on average were identified as high priority areas. Each of these tracts were characterized by >30% poverty, >85 % minority status and >30% without vehicle access. All 17 priority tracks were identified within New Haven and Bridgeport. Statewide, if 0.41% (0.33%,0.52%) of children living in areas impacted by a Cat 4 hurricane are admitted to hospitals, CT’s acute care pediatric capacity (statewide aggregate) will be overwhelmed. In the range of 0.1-2% surge of affected children, no more than 7 of the 28 CT hospitals can provide pediatric beds to the estimated pediatric patient surge. Our findings indicate the potential surge in pediatric patients exceeds the staffed bed capacity of CT’s acute care hospitals during a Cat 4 hurricane. The interplay between geospatial data with health and demographic data provides an important means to ensure health systems are prepared to respond to emergencies. The information from this study, and the general methodology, can aid emergency planners to better prepare for a pediatric focused emergency and allow them to generate and improve contingency plans to manage such a surge.
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