Convective Activity Research Articles

Pacific Interannual and Multidecadal Variability Recorded in δ18O of South American Summer Monsoon Precipitation

AbstractThe South American summer monsoon (SASM) generates important hydroclimatic impacts in (sub‐)tropical South America and isotopic tracers recorded in paleoclimatic archives allow for assessing its long‐term response to Pacific variability prior to modern observations. Stable oxygen isotopes in precipitation integrate hydroclimatic changes during the SASM mature phase from December to February (DJF) in response to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. Here, results from the isotope‐enabled Community Atmosphere Model v.5 are compared with highly resolved and precisely dated isotopic records from speleothems, tree rings, lake and ice cores during the industrial era (1880–2000 CE) and validated against observations from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) network. Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are coupled to the isotopic composition of SASM precipitation through perturbations in the Walker circulation associated with low‐ (IPO) and high‐frequency (ENSO) variability, impacting convective activity over tropical South America and the tropical Atlantic. Changes in convection over this monsoon entrance region ultimately control the downstream oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation recorded in paleoclimate archives. Overall, model results, paleoclimate records and IAEA data agree on the isotopic response to Pacific SST forcing. These results highlight the potential for long isotopic paleoclimate records to reconstruct Pacific climate variability on both high‐ and low‐frequency timescales. Furthermore, the isolation of the IPO signal in a diverse set of isotopic archives invites the reinterpretation of other paleoclimate proxies for identifying this historically overlooked forcing.

Cannabis pollen dispersal across the United States

For the recently legalized US hemp industry (Cannabis sativa), cross-pollination between neighboring fields has become a significant challenge, leading to contaminated seeds, reduced oil yields, and in some cases, mandated crop destruction. As a step towards assessing hemp cross-pollination risk, this study characterizes the seasonal and spatial patterns in windborne hemp pollen dispersal spanning the conterminous United States (CONUS). By leveraging meteorological data obtained through mesoscale model simulations, we have driven Lagrangian Stochastic models to simulate wind-borne hemp pollen dispersion across CONUS on a county-by-county basis for five months from July to November, encompassing the potential flowering season for industrial hemp. Our findings reveal that pollen deposition rates escalate from summer to autumn due to the reduction in convective activity during daytime and the increase in wind shear at night as the season progresses. We find diurnal variations in pollen dispersion: nighttime conditions favor deposition in proximity to the source, while daytime conditions facilitate broader dispersal albeit with reduced deposition rates. These shifting weather patterns give rise to specific regions of CONUS more vulnerable to hemp cross-pollination.

Tropical and mid-latitude causal drivers of the eastern Mediterranean Etesians during boreal summer

During boreal summer, large scale subsidence and a persistent northerly flow, known as the Etesians, characterize the tropospheric circulation over the eastern Mediterranean. The Etesians bring clear skies and alleviate the impact of heat waves over the region. The intraseasonal variability of the Etesians and subsidence over the eastern Mediterranean has been thought to be influenced by the South Asian monsoon and atmospheric processes over the North Atlantic. Here, we employ causal effect networks and causal maps, obtained by applying the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm, to identify causal precursors of Etesians. We find that both wave train activity over the North Atlantic/North American region and convective activity over South Asia associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are causally related to the Etesians at 3-day time scale. Thus, intraseasonal ISM variability affects the eastern Mediterranean circulation, though its influence is conveyed via a Middle East ridge. On longer weekly time scale, the mid-latitude influence weakens, while the influence of the tropical convective activity via the Middle East ridge remains stable. Moreover, the heat low over the Arabian Peninsula, a feature strongly responsible for the development of the Etesians, is caused by a stronger Middle East ridge and not by North Atlantic wave activity. Finally, we discuss potential implication for circulation changes in the eastern Mediterranean due to anthropogenic global warming.

Isotopic characteristics of extreme “dragon-boat water” rainfall between mid-May and mid-June in 2022 in Fuzhou, southeastern China

With global warming, the surge in torrential “dragon-boat water” (DBW) events during mid-May and mid-June, following the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), poses escalating threats to southern China through severe flooding and impacts on human livelihoods and socio-economic development. To better understand their fundamental mechanisms, we investigated extreme DBW rain events that occurred in southeastern China in 2022. Analysis of stable isotopes in precipitation samples collected in Fuzhou before and after SCSSM onset uncovered a significant decrease in δ18O values following monsoon onset, indicating intensified regional convective activity. This decrease is attributed to the seasonal variation in moisture sources, with water vapor originating from distant oceans after SCSSM onset contributing to increased Rayleigh distillation and subsequent δ18O reduction. A negative correlation between upstream rainfall and δ18O values, particularly at 96 h along the backward trajectory, indicates the influences of accumulative convective activities on precipitation isotopes along water vapor transport paths. Individual rain events typically exhibit characteristic “V” or “W” shapes in δ18O, with the lowest values mostly observed in stratiform zone, governed by microphysical processes, such as mesoscale subsidence, vapor deposition of ice particles, and rain re-evaporation below cloud-base. Notably, events with low δ18O values often coincide with low initial values, suggesting decreased vapor δ18O before precipitation due to accumulative convection or upstream rainout. Our findings elucidate the mechanisms driving the long-term changes in precipitation isotopes and their evolution during DBW events, enriching our understanding of the interplay between precipitation isotopes, large-scale convection, and microphysical processes.

Simulation of a cold spell in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with WRF: Sensitivity to PBL schemes

The selection of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation schemes is crucial for the simulation of local meteorology, especially under extreme weather events. A suitable PBL scheme is one of the key conditions to accurately reproduce the real weather conditions. In this study, the performance of all the three available PBL schemes that can be coupled with the multi-layer urban canopy model in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model: Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and Bougeault-Lacarrere (BL), is evaluated for a cold spell event with Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as the study region. It is found that accurate prediction of the strength of the vertical mixing and the change in wind speeds over the upper atmosphere is critical for reproducing the nighttime temperatures during the cold spell. The simulations of the BL scheme are consistent with observations that wind speeds do not vary much during daytime and nighttime, thus exhibiting strong vertical mixing and slowing down the near-surface temperature decrease during nighttime. The MYJ and YSU schemes cause significant underestimation of the nighttime 2-m temperature due to significant overestimation of the nighttime upper-air wind speeds, which leads to more heat transport through horizontal advection and hinders vertical mixing and convective activities. The results confirm that selection of a suitable PBL scheme can effectively reduce the uncertainty of the simulation results, and the coupling of the BL scheme with the multi-layer urban canopy model can better simulate the cold spell events occurring in the GBA, which also provides valuable references for the simulation of other similar coastal cities.

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

Abstract This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ∼25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

Proposal and application of a convective wind gustiness parameterization based on convective available potential energy

Wind gustiness is an effective approach for addressing mesoscale enhancement in estimating air-sea interface fluxes. In this study, an improved convective gustiness parameterization scheme based on convective available potential energy (CAPE) is formulated utilizing reanalysis data and wind observations from moored buoys. This new parameterization was examined by implementing it in the air-sea flux transfer scheme within the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (NCAR CESM) version 2.1.3 and contrasting it with a previously proposed scheme based on convective precipitation rate. The results indicate a significant reduction in negative biases of surface winds and latent heat fluxes over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific during summer with the implementation of either gustiness scheme, resulting in an average increase in latent heat flux of approximately 9 W·m− 2. Specifically, the CAPE-based scheme shows a more favorable impact in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, whereas the precipitation-based scheme exhibits inferior performance in the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. Further analysis reveals that the inclusion of the gustiness scheme distinctly alters surface evaporation and latent heat flux, influencing vertical motion in the area with active convective activity and effectively improving precipitation simulations by up to 18%. Moreover, the CAPE-based scheme reduces the bias in summer precipitation simulations by approximately 5% more than the precipitation-based scheme.

Precipitation Characteristics and Mechanisms over Sri Lanka against the Background of the Western Indian Ocean: 1981–2020

In the current environment of climate change, the precipitation situation of marine islands is particularly valued. So, this study explores precipitation characteristics and mechanisms over Sri Lanka in the background of the western Indian Ocean using satellite and reanalysis datasets based on 40 years (from 1981 to 2020). The results show that the highest precipitation occurs between October and December, accounting for 46.3% of the entire year. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming after 2002 significantly influences precipitation patterns. Particularly during the Second Inter-Monsoon, the western Indian Ocean warming induces an east–west zonal sea surface temperature gradient, leading to low-level circulation and westerly wind anomalies. This, in turn, results in increased precipitation in Sri Lanka between October and December. This study used the Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to study nine extreme precipitation indices, identifying a significant upward trend in extreme precipitation events in the Jaffna, arid northern Sri Lanka, peaking on 9 November 2021. This extreme event is due to the influence of weather systems like the Siberian High and intense convective activities, transporting substantial moisture to Jaffna from the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal during winter. The findings highlight the impact of sea surface temperature warming anomalies in the western Indian Ocean and extreme precipitation events, anticipated to be more accentuated during Sri Lanka’s monsoon season. This research provides valuable insights into the variability of tropical precipitation, offering a scientific basis for the sustainable development of marine islands.

Role of Strong Sea Surface Temperature Diurnal Variation in Triggering the Summer Monsoon Onset Over the Bay of Bengal in a Climate Model

AbstractThe earliest Asian summer monsoon onset (SMO) occurs in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), heralding the coming of the rainy season. In late April or early May, the strong sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal variation accompanied by ocean surface warming triggers the SMO. However, this observed diurnal cycle intensity cannot be reasonably simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models, resulting in a spurious delayed SMO. To address this issue, the SST diurnal cycle parameterized by a diagnostic sublayer scheme was incorporated into a climate model named FIO‐ESM v2.0. The large diurnal amplitude of SST contributes to surface warming and changes atmospheric circulation. Consequently, the high‐pressure anomaly at high levels and an inverted trough at low levels promote more convective activity, triggering an earlier SMO. Our findings improve the ability of climate models in simulating the evolution of the Asian monsoon system.

Multidecadal variations in North Atlantic SSTs modulate the relationship between ENSO and the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole since 1900

Abstract This study investigates the long-term variability of the relationship between the El Niño South/Oscillation (ENSO) and the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD), and their connection to multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (MDV-SST). Using a century’s worth of SST and atmospheric data and the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, the study found significant interdecadal variability in the correlation between the Niño3.4 index and the SASD index. This variability is closely linked to the North Atlantic MDV-SST, often interpreted as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is demonstrated by significant ENSO-SASD correlations during warm (positive) phases of MDV-SST (1930–1960 and 2001–2020) and insignificant correlations during cold (negative) phases (1900–1929 and 1961–2000). Through a Gill-type response, MDV-SST excites Rossby wave over the tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing surface wind, SST, convective activities and upper-level zonal wind over the Pacific Ocean. During warm MDV-SST phases, the more eastward positioned Rossby wave source (RWS), triggered by SST and precipitation anomalies over the South Pacific Ocean, along with a stronger, more northward subtropical jet stream, propagates the wavetrain more eastwards into the South Atlantic Ocean, thereby strengthening the SST anomalies in the SASD. Conversely, during the cold MDV-SST phases, the more westward-positioned ENSO-related RWS and a stronger mid-latitude jet stream guide the wavetrain southeastwards into the southeastern Pacific Ocean, exerting less influence on the SST anomalies in the SASD. The Ekman pumping caused by anomalous surface pressure and the associated surface wind field as well as surface turbulent heat flux also affect the SST anomalies in the SASD and the ENSO-SASD relation.

Interdecadal changes and the role of Philippine Sea convection in the intensification of Indian spring heatwaves

Abstract Severe heatwaves have become increasingly frequent over the Indian subcontinent in recent decades. This study found that the increase in extreme heatwaves is related to a significant decadal change in surface temperatures over the Indian subcontinent, and revealed that the increase in convective activity in the Philippine Sea plays a crucial role in this decadal change in surface temperature. Specifically, the surface temperature over the Indian subcontinent in spring has increased significantly by approximately 0.64°C in recent years (1998–2022: post-1998) compared to the past (1959–1997: pre-1998), leading to more intense and frequent heatwaves, particularly in March and April. The difference in atmospheric changes between these two periods shows that the enhancement of convective activity over the Philippine Sea drives an anomalous elongated anticyclonic circulation over the Indian subcontinent. This circulation pattern, marked by clearer skies and increased incident solar radiation, significantly contributes to the heat extremes in the Indian subcontinent. Additionally, stationary wave model experiments demonstrate that local diabatic heating over the Philippine Sea is significantly linked to robust spring Indian heatwaves through the Matsuno-Gill response.

Hypotheses Concerning Global Magnetospheric Convection, Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere Coupling, and Auroral Activity at Uranus

AbstractWe investigate the unique magnetosphere of Uranus and its interaction with the solar wind. Following the work of Masters (2014), https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ja020077 and others, we developed and validated a simple yet valuable and illustrative model of Uranus' offset, tilted, and rapidly‐spinning magnetic field and magnetopause (nominal and fit to the Voyager‐2 inbound crossing point) in three‐dimensional space. With this model, we investigated details of the seasonal and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation dependencies of dayside and flank reconnection along the Uranian magnetopause. We found that anti‐parallel (magnetic field shear angle greater than 170°) reconnection occurs nearly continuously along the Uranian dayside and/or flank magnetopause under all seasons of the 84 (Earth) year Uranian orbit and the most likely IMF orientations. Such active and continuous driving of the Uranian magnetosphere should result in constant loading and unloading of the Uranian magnetotail, which may be further complicated and destabilized by sudden changes in the IMF orientation and solar wind conditions plus the reconfigurations from the rotation of Uranus itself. We demonstrate that unlike the other magnetospheric systems that are Dungey‐cycle driven (i.e., Mercury and Earth) or rotationally driven (Jupiter and Saturn), global magnetospheric convection of plasma, magnetic flux, and energy flow may occur via three distinct cycles, two of which are unique to Uranus (and possibly also Neptune). Our simple model is also used to map signatures of dayside and flank reconnection down to the Uranian ionosphere, as a function of planetary latitude and longitude. Such mapping demonstrates that “spot‐like” auroral features should be very common on the Uranian dayside, consistent with observations from Hubble Space Telescope. We further detail how the combination of Uranus' rapid rotation and unique and very active global magnetospheric convection should be consistent with fueling of the surprisingly intense trapped radiation environment observed by Voyager‐2 during its single flyby. Summarizing, Uranus is a very interesting magnetosphere that offers new insights on the nature, complexity, and diversity of planetary magnetospheric systems and the acceleration of particles in space plasmas, which might have important analogs to exoplanetary magnetospheric systems. Our hypotheses can be tested with further work involving more advanced models, new auroral observations, and unprecedented missions to explore the in situ environment from orbit around Uranus, which should include a complement of magnetospheric instruments in the payload.

Novel Comparison of Pyrocumulonimbus Updrafts to Volcanic Eruptions and Supercell Thunderstorms Using Optical Flow Techniques

AbstractConvective dynamics in a supercell thunderstorm, a volcanic eruption, and two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events are compared by computing cloud‐top divergence (CTD) with an optical flow technique called Deepflow. Visible 0.64‐μm imagery sequences from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)‐R series Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) are used as input into the optical flow algorithm. CTD is computed after post‐processing of the retrieved motions. Analysis is performed on specific image times, as well as the full time series of each case. Multiple CTD‐based parameters, such as the maximum and the two‐dimensional area exceeding a specified CTD threshold, are examined along with the optical flow‐retrieved wind speed. CTD is shown to accurately and quantitatively represent the behavior and magnitude of different deep convective phenomena, including distinguishing between convective pulses within each individual event. CTD captures updraft intensification as well as differences in convective activity between two pyroCb events and individual updraft pulses occurring within a single pyroCb event. Finally, the characteristics of high‐altitude smoke plumes injected by two separate pyroCb pulses are linked to CTD using ultraviolet aerosol index and satellite imagery. Optical flow‐derived parameters can therefore be applied to individual pyroCbs in real‐time, with potential to characterize pyroCb smoke source inputs for downstream smoke modeling applications and to facilitate future tools supporting air quality modeling and firefighting efforts.

The impact of monsoon on the landfalling tropical cyclone persistent precipitation in South China

Interactions between landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and monsoons in South China significantly influence precipitation duration, leading to severe disasters. Previous studies have primarily been individual cases, lacking systematic large-scale statistical analysis of the monsoon and landfalling tropical cyclone persistent precipitation (LTCPP) relationship. This study quantitatively investigated the relationship between monsoonal wind intensity before TCs landfall and post-landfall persistent precipitation induced by TCs in South China, employing the ERA5 reanalysis data and the best track data of 147 TCs from 1979 to 2018. The LTCPP was characterized by the frequency of persistent precipitation events during 0–72 h after TC landfall within a 500 km radius from the TC center. TCs were subdivided into weak and strong LTCPP groups based on the category-specific median of Frequency of 24 h Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Persistent Precipitation (FLTCPP24): 2705 h for TS, 6007 h for STS, and 6419 h for TY. A South China Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Monsoon Index (SCTCPM) was proposed to quantify monsoonal wind intensity derived from zonal winds at 850 hPa over two regions located in the Indian Ocean and Northwestern Pacific Ocean, within 5 d before TC landfall. The results reveal that SCTCPM < 9 m s−1 yields a 72% probability of weak LTCPP occurrence, which increases to 77% when SCTCPM < 6 m s−1. Conversely, SCTCPM > 18 m s−1 corresponds to an 80% probability of strong LTCPP. SCTCPM is an effective indicator for monsoonal wind that impacts LTCPP. Enhanced monsoonal winds, quantified by higher SCTCPM, result in post-landfall changes in horizontal wind speed, moisture transport, convective activity and upward motion, ultimately increasing LTCPP. This study deepens our understanding of the monsoon-TC relationship, emphasizing the crucial role of monsoonal wind in LTCPP in South China and offering valuable insights for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation.

Raindrop size distributions of summer monsoon rainfall observed over Eastern India

The present study aims to quantify the raindrop size distributions (RSDs) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over a tropical eastern Indian station, Rourkela using five years (2018–2021) of Thies disdrometer measurements. The RSD measurements of ISM rainfall at Rourkela are segregated into active and break spells using the standardized rainfall anomalies over the study area. The RSDs characteristics of active and break spells are analyzed and their empirical relations, which are appropriate for precipitation estimation algorithms, are also reported. A significant annual and monthly variations in RSDs is noticed between the active and break spells of the ISM rainfall over the study region. The probability distribution function (PDF) RSDs parameters (rainfall rate, liquid water content, mass-weighted mean diameter, and normalized intercept parameter) demonstrated clear distinctions between active and break spells. The active spells showed higher rainfall amounts, large mass-weighted mean diameter, and smaller normalized intercept parameters over the break spells. A further segregation of active and break spells into stratiform and convective types revealed more large size drops in convective (stratiform) precipitations of active (break) spells. Occurrence of higher rainfall amounts and large size raindrops in the active spells over the break spells can be attributed to the presence of abundant moisture and convective activity in active spells. Furthermore, the radar reflectivity-rainfall rate (Z–R), shape and slope (μ–Λ), and mass-weighted mean diameter-rainfall rate (Dm-R) relations established for the active and break spells could aid in improving the precipitation estimations of over the study region.

Expansion of grasslands across glacial Sundaland caused by enhanced precipitation seasonality

The distribution of vegetation across glacial Sundaland and the underlying mechanisms have long been debated. We address this issue by comparing a compilation of vegetation reconstructions with climate simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). A new n-alkane δ13C record derived from higher plants, covering the period from 21 to 5 cal ka BP in the southern South China Sea, is presented. This record, combined with previous pollen-based reconstructions, indicates that C3 forests dominated the outer-to-mid shelf regions of the northern Sundaland between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich Stadial 1, while open grasslands occupied the inner shelf region. A compilation of vegetation reconstructions shows a glacial contraction of lowland rainforests in longitudinal extent compared to the Holocene, especially in southern Sundaland. Furthermore, the previously proposed “savannah corridor” or “dry tropical forests” existed in the interior of Sundaland during the LGM, extending from the Malay Peninsula to the Lesser Sunda Islands. Modelling studies suggest that changes in the seasonality of precipitation, rather than mean annual rainfall, are more relevant to vegetation changes between the LGM and the Holocene. The glacial emergence of Sundaland caused an eastward shift of the ascending branch of the Walker Circulation and a substantial reduction in atmospheric convection activity over Southeast Asia, leading to a decrease in water availability during the dry season in both hemispheres. The enhanced water stress thus favors the expansion of open environments.

Global climate modeling of the Jupiter troposphere and effect of dry and moist convection on jets

Aims. The atmosphere of Jupiter is characterized by banded jets, including an equatorial super-rotating jet, by an intense moist con-vective activity, and by perturbations exerted by vortices, waves, and turbulence. Even after space exploration missions to Jupiter and detailed numerical modeling of Jupiter, questions remain about the mechanisms underlying the banded jets and the role played by dry and moist convection in maintaining these jets. Methods. We report three-dimensional simulations of the Jupiter weather layer using a global climate model (GCM) called Jupiter-DYNAMICO, which couples hydrodynamical integrations on an icosahedral grid with detailed radiative transfer computations. We added a thermal plume model for Jupiter that emulates the effect of mixing of heat, momentum, and tracers by dry and moist convec-tive plumes that are left unresolved in the GCM mesh spacing with a physics-based approach. Results. Our Jupiter-DYNAMICO global climate simulations show that the large-scale Jovian flow, in particular the jet structure, could be highly sensitive to the water abundance in the troposphere and that an abundance threshold exists at which equatorial super-rotation develops. In contrast to our dry (or weakly moist) simulations, simulations that include the observed amount of tropospheric water exhibit a clear-cut super-rotating eastward jet at the equator and a dozen eastward mid-latitude jets that do not migrate poleward. The magnitudes agree with the observations. The convective activity simulated by our thermal plume model is weaker in the equatorial regions than in mid to high latitudes, as indicated by lightning observations. Regardless of whether they are dry or moist, our simulations exhibit the observed inverse energy cascade from small (eddies) to large scales (jets) in a zonostrophic regime.

Volatile Mass Partitioned among the Atmosphere, Mantle, and Core in Proto-Mars

We analyze the distribution of volatiles such as water, hydrogen, and carbon within the atmosphere, mantle, and core of Mars during its accretion stages. The partitioning of these volatiles is crucial as it influences the generation of intrinsic magnetic fields, mantle convection, and magmatic activity. The study suggests that the accretion process is responsible for the presence of water and light elements within the Martian mantle and core. We employ a hybrid-type proto-atmosphere model, which considers an upper layer composed of nebula components and a lower layer made up of degassed components from the impact degassing of the simplified building blocks based on the two-component model. Our numerical analysis implies that the formation of a magma ocean at this high temperature and pressure after around the half-size of the present Mars triggers the migration of water vapor, carbon, and hydrogen from the primordial atmosphere into the planetary interior. Ultimately, several 1021 kg of water could have been distributed to the mantle and, if degassed again by the formation of flood basalts on the Tharsis Plateau, could have supplied Mars’ ancient oceans. Meanwhile, several 1020 kg of carbon and 1019 kg of hydrogen (equivalent to 1020 kg H2O) were found to be distributed in the core. Although the distribution of sulfur was simplified so that all of the sulfur is in the core, a result of sulfur accounting for 14 wt% to 19 wt.% of the core mass would be consistent with the core density suggested by InSight.

Distinct propagating and standing modes of tropical intraseasonal variability as represented by the two principal oscillation patterns

Although the tropical intraseaonal variability (TISV), as the most important predictability sources for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, is dominated by Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), its significant fraction does not always share the canonical MJO features, especially when the convective activity arrives at Maritime Continent. In this study, using principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis on the combined fields of daily equatorial convection and zonal wind, two distinct leading TISV modes with relatively slower e-folding decay rates are identified. One is an oscillatory mode with the period of 51 days and e-folding time of 19 days, capturing the eastward propagating (EP) feature of the canonical MJO. The other is a non-oscillatory damping mode with e-folding time of 13.6 days, capturing a standing dipole (SD) with convection anomalies centered over the Maritime Continent and tropical central Pacific, respectively. Compared to the EP mode, the leading moisture anomalies at low level to the east of convection center are diminish for the SD mode, and instead, the strong negative anomalies of moisture and subsidence motion emerge in the tropical central Pacific area, which may be responsible for the distinct propagation features. Without filtering methods used, timeseries of the two POPs could be applied to the real-time monitoring of EP and SD events in the phase-space diagram. The two modes can serve as the simple and objective approach for a better characterization for diverse natures of TISV beyond the canonical MJO description, which may further shed light on dynamics of the TISV and its predictability.

Analisis Kondisi Atmosfer pada Kejadian Hujan ES di Kota Palembang 04 November 2023

Seasonal transitions in Indonesia are typically accompanied by extreme weather phenomena, such as hail that occurred in the city of Palembang on November 4, 2023. The analysis of atmospheric conditions is intended to understand the dynamics of the atmosphere during the occurrence of the hailstorm phenomenon. The data used in this study include satellite imagery from Himawari-9 channels 8, 11, 13, 15, GSM data, ECMWF modelling data, and SST anomaly data. The research results indicate that anomalies in sea surface temperature and vertical convergence profiles, as well as relative humidity (RH), strengthen the potential for convective activity leading to extreme weather conditions. Based on Himawari-9 satellite imagery, the time series graph shows the lowest peak cloud temperature at around -80°C, with the Atmospheric Stability Index based on the GSM method indicating a labile atmospheric condition. Furthermore, using the RGB 24 Hour Microphysics and CCO methods, Cumulonimbus clouds were observed to begin growing at 07:20 UTC, entering the mature stage at 09:20 UTC, and starting to decay at 10:20 UTC.