The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a model for predicting post-treatment survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients using their CT images and clinical information, including various treatment information. We collected pre-treatment contrast-enhanced CT images and clinical information including patient-related factors, initial treatment options, and survival status from 692 patients. The patient cohort was divided into a training cohort (n = 507), a testing cohort (n = 146), and an external CT cohort (n = 39), which included patients who underwent CT scans at other institutions. After model training using fivefold cross-validation, model validation was performed on both the testing cohort and the external CT cohort. Our cascaded model employed a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract features from CT images and derive final survival probabilities. These probabilities were obtained by concatenating previously predicted probabilities for each interval with the patient-related factors and treatment options. We utilized two consecutive fully connected layers for this process, resulting in a number of final outputs corresponding to the number of time intervals, with values representing conditional survival probabilities for each interval. Performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), the mean cumulative/dynamic area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (mC/D AUC), and the mean Brier score (mBS), calculated every 3months. Through an ablation study, we found that using DenseNet-121 as the backbone network and setting the prediction interval to 6months optimized the model's performance. The integration of multimodal data resulted in superior predictive capabilities compared to models using only CT images or clinical information (C index 0.824 [95% CI 0.822-0.826], mC/D AUC 0.893 [95% CI 0.891-0.895], and mBS 0.121 [95% CI 0.120-0.123] for internal test cohort; C index 0.750 [95% CI 0.747-0.753], mC/D AUC 0.819 [95% CI 0.816-0.823], and mBS 0.159 [95% CI 0.158-0.161] for external CT cohort, respectively). Our CNN-based discrete-time survival prediction model with CT images and clinical information demonstrated promising results in predicting post-treatment survival of patients with HCC.
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