Continuous Semimartingales Research Articles

A C1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$C^1$$\\end{document}-Itô’s Formula for Flows of Semimartingale Distributions

We provide an Itô’s formula for C1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$C^1$$\\end{document}-functionals of flows of conditional marginal distributions of continuous semimartingales. This is based on the notion of weak Dirichlet process, and extends the C1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$C^1$$\\end{document}-Itô’s formula in Gozzi and Russo (Stoch Process Appl 116(11):1563–1583, 2006) to this context. As the first application, we study a class of McKean–Vlasov optimal control problems, and establish a verification theorem which only requires C1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$C^1$$\\end{document}-regularity of its value function, which is equivalently the (viscosity) solution of the associated HJB master equation. It goes together with a novel duality result.

Stochastic integration with respect to arbitrary collections of continuous semimartingales and applications to mathematical finance

Stochastic integration with respect to arbitrary collections of continuous semimartingales and applications to mathematical finance

A geometric extension of the Itô-Wentzell and Kunita’s formulas

We extend the Itô-Wentzell formula for the evolution along a continuous semimartingale of a time-dependent stochastic field driven by a continuous semimartingale to tensor field-valued stochastic processes on manifolds. More concretely, we investigate how the pull-back (respectively, the push-forward) by a stochastic flow of diffeomorphisms of a time-dependent stochastic tensor field driven by a continuous semimartingale evolves with time, deriving it under suitable regularity conditions. We call this result the Kunita-Itô-Wentzell (KIW) formula for the advection of tensor-valued stochastic processes. Equations of this nature bear significance in stochastic fluid dynamics and well-posedness by noise problems, facilitating the development of certain geometric extensions within existing theories.

Arbitrage theory in a market of stochastic dimension

AbstractThis paper studies an equity market of stochastic dimension, where the number of assets fluctuates over time. In such a market, we develop the fundamental theorem of asset pricing, which provides the equivalence of the following statements: (i) there exists a supermartingale numéraire portfolio; (ii) each dissected market, which is of a fixed dimension between dimensional jumps, has locally finite growth; (iii) there is no arbitrage of the first kind; (iv) there exists a local martingale deflator; (v) the market is viable. We also present the optional decomposition theorem, which characterizes a given nonnegative process as the wealth process of some investment‐consumption strategy. Furthermore, similar results still hold in an open market embedded in the entire market of stochastic dimension, where investors can only invest in a fixed number of large capitalization stocks. These results are developed in an equity market model where the price process is given by a piecewise continuous semimartingale of stochastic dimension. Without the continuity assumption on the price process, we present similar results but without explicit characterization of the numéraire portfolio.

Robust utility maximization with nonlinear continuous semimartingales

AbstractIn this paper we study a robust utility maximization problem in continuous time under model uncertainty. The model uncertainty is governed by a continuous semimartingale with uncertain local characteristics. Here, the differential characteristics are prescribed by a set-valued function that depends on time and path. We show that the robust utility maximization problem is in duality with a conjugate problem, and we study the existence of optimal portfolios for logarithmic, exponential and power utilities.

A Schrödinger random operator with semimartingale potential

Abstract We study a Schrödinger random operator where the potential is in terms of a continuous semimartingale. Our model is a generalization of the well-known case where the potential is the white-noise. Our approach is to analyze the random operator by means of its bilinear form. This allows us to construct an inverse operator using an explicit Green kernel. To characterize such homogeneous solutions we use certain stochastic equations in terms of stochastic integrals with respect to the semimartingale. An important tool that we use is the multi-dimensional Itô formula. Also, one important corollary of our results is that the operator has a discrete spectrum.

Average preserving variation processes in view of optimization

In this paper, we investigate specific least action principles for laws of stochastic processes within a framework which stands on filtrations preserving variations. The associated Euler–Lagrange conditions, which we obtain, exhibit a deterministic process in the dynamics aside the canonical martingale term. In particular, taking specific action functionals, extremal processes with respect to those variations encompass specific laws of continuous semi-martingales whose drift characteristic is integrable with independent increments. Then, we relate extremal processes of classical cost functions, in particular of specific entropy functions, to a class of forward-backward systems of Mckean–Vlasov stochastic differential equations.

Nonlinear continuous semimartingales

Nonlinear continuous semimartingales

Stochastic Port-Hamiltonian Systems

In the present work we formally extend the theory of port-Hamiltonian systems to include random perturbations. In particular, suitably choosing the space of flow and effort variables we will show how several elements coming from possibly different physical domains can be interconnected in order to describe a dynamic system perturbed by general continuous semimartingale. Relevant enough, the noise does not enter into the system solely as an external random perturbation, since each port is itself intrinsically stochastic. Coherently to the classical deterministic setting, we will show how such an approach extends existing literature of stochastic Hamiltonian systems on pseudo-Poisson and pre-symplectic manifolds. Moreover, we will prove that a power-preserving interconnection of stochastic port-Hamiltonian systems is a stochastic port-Hamiltonian system as well.

A functional central limit theorem for SI processes on configuration model graphs

AbstractWe study a stochastic compartmental susceptible–infected (SI) epidemic process on a configuration model random graph with a given degree distribution over a finite time interval. We split the population of graph vertices into two compartments, namely, S and I, denoting susceptible and infected vertices, respectively. In addition to the sizes of these two compartments, we keep track of the counts of SI-edges (those connecting a susceptible and an infected vertex) and SS-edges (those connecting two susceptible vertices). We describe the dynamical process in terms of these counts and present a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for them as the number of vertices in the random graph grows to infinity. The FCLT asserts that the counts, when appropriately scaled, converge weakly to a continuous Gaussian vector semimartingale process in the space of vector-valued càdlàg functions endowed with the Skorokhod topology. We discuss applications of the FCLT in percolation theory and in modelling the spread of computer viruses. We also provide simulation results illustrating the FCLT for some common degree distributions.

Power Mixture Forward Performance Processes

We consider the forward investment problem in market models where the stock prices are continuous semimartingales adapted to a Brownian filtration. We construct a broad class of forward performance processes with initial conditions of power mixture type, $u(x) = \int_{\mathbb{I}} \frac{x^{1-\gamma}}{1-\gamma }\nu(\mathrm{d} \gamma)$. We proceed to define and fully characterize two-power mixture forward performance processes with constant risk aversion coefficients in the interval $(0,1)$, and derive properties of two-power mixture forward performance processes when the risk aversion coefficients are continuous stochastic processes. Finally, we discuss the problem of managing an investment pool of two investors, whose respective preferences evolve as power forward performance processes.

A CLT for second difference estimators with an application to volatility and intensity

In this paper, we introduce a general method for estimating the quadratic covariation of one or more spot parameter processes associated with continuous time semimartingales, and present a central limit theorem that has this class of estimators as one of its applications. The class of estimators we introduce, that we call Two-Scales Quadratic Covariation (TSQC) estimators, is based on sums of increments of second differences of the observed processes, and the intervals over which the differences are computed are rolling and overlapping. This latter feature lets us take full advantage of the data, and, by sufficiency considerations, ought to outperform estimators that are based on only one partition of the observational window. Moreover, a two-scales approach is employed to deal with asymptotic bias terms in a systematic manner, thus automatically giving consistent estimators without having to work out the form of the bias term on a case-to-case basis. We highlight the versatility of our central limit theorem by applying it to a novel leverage effect estimator that does not belong to the class of TSQC estimators. The principal empirical motivation for the present study is that the discrete times at which a continuous time semimartingale is observed might depend on features of the observable process other than its level, such as its spot-volatility process. As an application of the TSQC estimators, we therefore show how it may be used to estimate the quadratic covariation between the spot-volatility process and the intensity process of the observation times, when both of these are taken to be semimartingales. The finite sample properties of this estimator are studied by way of a simulation experiment, and we also apply this estimator in an empirical analysis of the Apple stock. Our analysis of the Apple stock indicates a rather strong correlation between the spot volatility process of the log-prices process and the times at which this stock is traded and hence observed.

Solving equations with semimartingale noise

Abstract In this work we focus on a method for solving equations with a coefficient formally given in terms of the derivative of a continuous semimartingale. This generalizes the case of coefficients being the white noise. The idea for solving the equation is to find explicitly the inverse of the ill-posed differential operator, which boils down to finding the associated Green kernel. To find the kernel we give explicitly two homogeneous solutions in terms of the so-called Dolean–Dade exponential. The general idea to define rigorously differential operators lies on dealing with them through bilinear forms. We give several examples with explicit calculations.

Testing the volatility jumps based on the high frequency data

This article tests volatility jumps based on the high frequency data. Under the null hypothesis that the volatility process is a continuous semimartingale, our test statistic converges to a normal distribution, and under the alternative hypothesis where the volatility has jumps, the statistic diverges to infinity. Compared to the test statistic of Bibinger et al. (Bibinger et al. (2017). Annals of Statistics 45, 1542–1578), our proposed statistic diverges to infinity at a faster rate, and has a better power. Simulation studies confirm the theoretical results, and an empirical analysis shows that some real financial data possess volatility jumps.

Semi-Robust Replication of Barrier-Style Claims on Price and Volatility

ABSTRACT We show how to price and replicate a variety of barrier-style claims written on the log price X and quadratic variation of a risky asset. Our framework assumes no arbitrage, frictionless markets and zero interest rates. We model the risky asset as a strictly positive continuous semimartingale with an independent volatility process. The volatility process may exhibit jumps and may be non-Markovian. As hedging instruments, we use only the underlying risky asset, zero-coupon bonds, and European calls and puts with the same maturity as the barrier-style claim. We consider knock-in, knock-out and rebate claims in single and double barrier varieties.

Rough Paths and Regularization

Calculus via regularizations and rough paths are two methods to approach stochastic integration and calculus close to pathwise calculus. The origin of rough paths theory is purely deterministic, calculus via regularization is based on deterministic techniques but there is still a probability in the background. The goal of this paper is to establish a connection between stochastically controlled-type processes, a concept reminiscent from rough paths theory, and the so-called weak Dirichlet processes. As a by-product, we present the connection between rough and Stratonovich integrals for cadlag weak Dirichlet processes integrands and continuous semimartingales integrators.

On It\xf4 formulas for jump processes

A well-known Itô formula for finite-dimensional processes, given in terms of stochastic integrals with respect to Wiener processes and Poisson random measures, is revisited and is revised. The revised formula, which corresponds to the classical Itô formula for semimartingales with jumps, is then used to obtain a generalisation of an important infinite-dimensional Itô formula for continuous semimartingales from Krylov (Probab Theory Relat Fields 147:583–605, 2010) to a class of L_p-valued jump processes. This generalisation is motivated by applications in the theory of stochastic PDEs.

Mixed semimartingales: Volatility estimation in the presence of fractional noise

We consider the problem of estimating volatility for high-frequency data when the observed process is the sum of a continuous Ito semimartingale and a noise process that locally behaves like fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H. The resulting class of processes, which we call mixed semimartingales, generalizes the mixed fractional Brownian motion introduced by Cheridito [Bernoulli 7 (2001) 913–934] to time-dependent and stochastic volatility. Based on central limit theorems for variation functionals, we derive consistent estimators and asymptotic confidence intervals for H and the integrated volatilities of both the semimartingale and the noise part, in all cases where these quantities are identifiable. When applied to recent stock price data, we find strong empirical evidence for the presence of fractional noise, with Hurst parameters H that vary considerably over time and between assets.

High-Dimensional Estimation of Quadratic Variation Based on Penalized Realized Variance

In this paper, we develop a penalized realized variance (PRV) estimator of the quadratic variation (QV) of a high-dimensional continuous Ito semimartingale. We adapt the principle idea of regularization from linear regression to covariance estimation in a continuous-time high-frequency setting. We show that under a nuclear norm penalization, the PRV is computed by soft-thresholding the eigenvalues of realized variance (RV). It therefore encourages sparsity of singular values or, equivalently, low rank of the solution. We prove our estimator is minimax optimal up to a logarithmic factor. We derive a concentration inequality, which reveals that the rank of PRV is-with a high probability-the number of non-negligible eigenvalues of the QV. Moreover, we also provide the associated non-asymptotic analysis for the spot variance. We suggest an intuitive data-driven bootstrap procedure to select the shrinkage parameter. Our theory is supplemented by a simulation study and an empirical application. The PRV detects about three-five factors in the equity market, with a notable rank decrease during times of distress in financial markets. This is consistent with most standard asset pricing models, where a limited amount of systematic factors driving the cross-section of stock returns are perturbed by idiosyncratic errors, rendering the QV-and also RV-of full rank.

Zipf’s law for atlas models

AbstractA set of data with positive values follows a Pareto distribution if the log–log plot of value versus rank is approximately a straight line. A Pareto distribution satisfies Zipf’s law if the log–log plot has a slope of $-1$. Since many types of ranked data follow Zipf’s law, it is considered a form of universality. We propose a mathematical explanation for this phenomenon based on Atlas models and first-order models, systems of strictly positive continuous semimartingales with parameters that depend only on rank. We show that the stationary distribution of an Atlas model will follow Zipf’s law if and only if two natural conditions, conservation and completeness, are satisfied. Since Atlas models and first-order models can be constructed to approximate systems of time-dependent rank-based data, our results can explain the universality of Zipf’s law for such systems. However, ranked data generated by other means may follow non-Zipfian Pareto distributions. Hence, our results explain why Zipf’s law holds for word frequency, firm size, household wealth, and city size, while it does not hold for earthquake magnitude, cumulative book sales, and the intensity of wars, all of which follow non-Zipfian Pareto distributions.