Contemporary Climate Change Research Articles

Vegetation community changes in European woodlands amid a changing climate: a palaeoecological modelling perspective

Climate has an important role in shaping the composition and structure of woodlands. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how woodlands will respond to climate change over the next hundred years. To better understand likely responses to contemporary climate change, this paper analyses taxonomic richness, evenness and community similarity in palaeoecological data from 31 European woodlands during an abrupt cooling and warming event c. 8200 years ago. Repeated measures ANOVAs demonstrated there was no significant overall difference in richness or community evenness over time. A single significant pairwise contrast was found (richness decreased as climate warmed) but was short-lived, indicating that high-level effects were temporary. However, analysis of species turnover measured using community similarity revealed substantial changes (only 24% of species remained at some sites after climatic change), indicating that the actual species within that community had altered. General(ised) linear models showed variation in the direction and magnitude of community change was not related to the broadscale biogeographical variables of latitude, longitude or altitude. Our research has several important implications for practitioners involved in community ecology research and woodland management. Although site-level richness is largely unaffected, we caution that there will be considerable species turnover in woodlands as the climate warms. As species turnover at individual sites will have a negligible effect if driven by localised random processes, we recommend practitioners to consider long-term gamma diversity wherever possible. This shifts focus towards landscape-scale approaches that span generations rather than the typical 3–5-year span of funding, management plans and political cycles.

Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Occurrence in Central Poland in 1961–2020 as an Element of the Climatic Risk to Crop Production

The results of numerous studies concerning meteorological drought show that there is a considerable impact of this phenomenon on several regions in Europe. On the other hand, statistical trends of dry spell occurrences in some areas of the continent are unclear or even negative. Therefore, further research should be directed towards a better understanding of this hazard, particularly the seasonal changes, in order to elaborate adequate strategies to prevent and mitigate its undesirable effects. The main goal of the work, conducted as part of the research strategy on contemporary climate change, was to confirm the hypothesis of increasing frequency and intensity of droughts during the period of active plant growth and development (May–August) in central Poland in 1961–2020. The prevailing rainfall conditions in this period determine the production and economic effects of agricultural output. The analysis covered a multiannual period, including two separate climate normals: 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. The work is also aimed at detecting relationships between indicators characterizing meteorological drought (the Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI) and agricultural drought (the actual precipitation deficiency—PAdef). It was found that the frequency of meteorological droughts in the studied period amounts to 30.0% (severe and extreme constitute 6.7%). No significant increase in the frequency and intensity of meteorological droughts over time was observed. Relationships between meteorological and agricultural drought indicators were significant, so the SPI can be considered an indicator of plant irrigation needs in the studied area.

Contested novel ecosystems: Socio-ecological processes and evidence from Italy

In the context of contemporary global climate and environmental change, both natural and social scientists have stressed the role green areas play in global warming adaptation strategies and in improving the healthiness of the urban environment. Indeed, in recent years these spaces have become central to institutional political debates and various policies have been designed for their valorization. However, little attention has been paid to rewilded urban spaces, recently defined as novel urban ecosystems, and to their socio-ecological complexity. By adopting an interdisciplinary approach that links natural and social science perspectives, this article aims to highlight the role of novel urban ecosystems in the reconfiguration of urban policies. Indeed, this contribution analyzes ecosystem services coupled with the hybrid, contested socio-ecological nature of four case studies in Italy characterized by grassroots socio-environmental mobilization. Data were collected through comparative quantitative and qualitative methods. The evidence shows that the specific ecological features of novel urban ecosystems are strategic in terms of actual and potential ecosystem service provision for cities and suggests that citizens play a fundamental role in recognizing and valorizing them. In parallel, these spaces, reconceptualized as contested novel ecosystems, emerge as controversial hybrid urban socio-natures that enable community empowerment and produce a heterogeneous, grassroots political space oriented towards urban commons and environmental-climate justice.

Exploring and understanding the floristic richness, life-form, leaf-size spectra and phenology of plants in protected forests: A case study of Dachigam National Park in Himalaya, Asia

Protected areas are contributing people's livelihoods and working as the backbone of all forms of biodiversity conservation. The reformed rules and the legal local protection have come up as a means of conserving trees and associated diversity of life throughout the world. But due to the anthropogenic pressures and climate change especially in the global south and even those within the well-recognized national parks, community conserved forests, wetlands, nature reserves, and similar other species-rich sites are under human pressure. Lots of research works have been carried out related to conservation parameters, still, the qualitative studies on legal protection and management of forest biodiversity in many hotspots regions such as the Himalayas and Indo-Myanmar are lacking. Realising the future perspective of potential and economic valued higher plants in forests, the assessment of species composition of Dachigam National Park (DNP) was carried out in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) of Himalaya. A total of 181 plant species belonging to 129 genera and 56 families were documented from DNP. It has been observed that the species distribution pattern across the documented families was unequal, with 11 families contributing approximately half of the species number, while 21 families were monotypic and represented by only 1 species. Family Rosaceae (19) with the maximum number of species was the dominant group followed by Asteraceae (16 spp.) and Lamiaceae (10 spp.). In terms of functional trait diversity, herbaceous and perennial woody forms of plants were dominant over the other forms. The biological spectrum analysis revealed the dominance of therophyte life-form, indicating the disturbed vegetation in DNP. A multivariate ecological community analysis software was used to classify the phenological similarities and differences among the different flowering seasons. The phenological spectrum revealed the maximum plant flowering season ranges from March to June, where a total of about 53% species were recorded in full blooming. The leaf-size spectra were also investigated and found 36% of the structure were microphyll, followed by mesophyll (28%); the majority of the species (62%) had simple leaf lamina. These research findings provide important baseline data for better prediction of phenological shifts associated with Himalayan species over contemporary climate change and species composition of protected areas in Himalaya.

Global patterns of species richness of the holarctic alpine herbSaxifraga: the role of temperature and habitat heterogeneity

AbstractThe effects of contemporary climate, habitat heterogeneity and long-term climate change on species richness are well studied for woody plants in forest ecosystems, but poorly understood for herbaceous plants, especially in alpine–arctic ecosystems. Here, we aim to test if the previously proposed hypothesis based on the richness–environment relationship could explain the variation in richness patterns of the typical alpine–arctic herbaceous genus Saxifraga.Using a newly compiled distribution database of 437 Saxifraga species, we estimated the species richness patterns for all species, narrow- and wide-ranged species. We used generalized linear models and simultaneous autoregressive models to evaluate the effects of contemporary climate, habitat heterogeneity and historical climate on species richness patterns. Partial regressions were used to determine the independent and shared effects of different variables. Four widely used models were tested to identify their predictive power in explaining patterns of species richness.We found that temperature was negatively correlated with the richness patterns of all and wide-ranged species, and that was the most important environmental factor, indicating a strong conservatism of its ancestral temperate niche. Habitat heterogeneity and long-term climate change were the best predictors of the spatial variation of narrow-ranged species richness. Overall, the combined model containing five predictors can explain ca. 40%–50% of the variation in species richness. We further argued that additional evolutionary and biogeographical processes might have also played an essential role in shaping the Saxifraga diversity patterns and should be considered in future studies.

Surface water, vegetation, and fire as drivers of the terrestrial Arctic-boreal albedo feedback

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average, due in part to the albedo feedbacks of a diminishing cryosphere. As snow cover extent decreases, the underlying land is exposed, which has lower albedo and therefore absorbs more radiation, warming the surface and causing a positive feedback to climate change. Changes in terrestrial snow-free albedo (e.g. changes in vegetation or surface water) could also affect Earth’s energy balance, but their importance for contemporary climate change is relatively unknown. Here we show that changes in surface water are significantly altering Artic-boreal albedo, and explain up to 27% of the spatial variation in monthly albedo change from 2000 to 2019. The increase in radiative forcing due to changes in surface water extent is most pronounced in the continuous permafrost zone, contributing to a positive feedback between permafrost thaw and climate change. Additionally, we show that fire history and changes in tree cover and surface water extent together account for at least 15% of albedo-induced radiative forcing over the study period, indicating that these processes are a regionally important aspect of the climate-albedo feedback.

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal.

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species' sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017-2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species' geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species' range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Toward climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale

AbstractClimate change uncertainty poses serious challenges to conservation efforts. One emerging conservation strategy is to identify and conserve climate change refugia: areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable persistence of valued resources. This management paradigm may be pursued at broad scales by leveraging existing resources and placing them into a tangible framework to stimulate further collaboration that fosters management decision‐making. Here, we describe a framework for moving toward operationalizing climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale with an analysis for the Sierra Nevada ecoregion (CA, USA). Structured within the Climate Change Refugia Conservation Cycle, we identify a preliminary suite of conservation priorities for the ecoregion, and demonstrate how existing mapping, data, and applications could be used for identifying, prioritizing, managing, and monitoring refugia. We focus on six stakeholder‐identified conservation priorities, including two process‐based refugial priorities (snow and fire), and four ecosystem‐based refugial priorities (meadows, giant sequoia, old growth forests, and alpine communities). This pilot overview of concepts and resources provides a foundation for both near‐term implementation and further discussion in moving from science to conservation practice. Such an approach may provide new practical insights for ecosystem management at ecoregion scales in the face of climate change.

Winter belowground: Changing winters and the perennating organs of herbaceous plants

Abstract The physical avoidance of overwinter damage is important for determining the success of herbaceous perennial plants in climates with cold winters. Exposure to damaging frost can be affected by contemporary climatic change, which can include an increase in winter air temperatures, changes in precipitation and changes in the timing and severity of warm and cold events. In this review, we consider the specific adaptations of herbaceous plants to avoid harsh winter conditions via perennating organs, what is known about their responses to warming winters, and what future directions the research of overwintering in herbs should explore. Herbaceous plants have adapted to harsh winter conditions in part by investing carbohydrates into belowground organs of perennation instead of aboveground biomass. The location of renewal buds and stored carbohydrates belowground increases their protection against freezing temperatures, and they can be further protected via insulation from plant litter or snow cover. Climate change can affect overwintering organs by altering snow cover depth and duration, thus increasing or decreasing the exposure of plants to frost, and may initiate an earlier or a later onset of growth in the spring. Winter warming can increase productivity in some species, but directly or indirectly decrease it in others and may lead to a loss of specialized plants, for example, in snowbed communities. Plants with shallow structures and taproots may be particularly vulnerable to increased soil frost penetration resulting from reduced snow cover. Measures of organ biomass and storage carbohydrate content can be used to assess how winter conditions affect allocation, storage, and the potential for growth in the spring. When destructive measures cannot be taken, the use of trait measures, such as perennating organ type, or its traits, such as depth and size of bud bank, can add further strength to the assessment of responses across multiple species. To fully understand the effects of changing winter conditions on perennial herbaceous plants, researchers must better account for plant overwintering strategies, their drivers, costs, and benefits. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Climate and the latitudinal limits of subtropical reef development

Climate plays a central role in coral-reef development, especially in marginal environments. The high-latitude reefs of southeast Florida are currently non-accreting, relict systems with low coral cover. This region also did not support the extensive Late Pleistocene reef development observed in many other locations around the world; however, there is evidence of significant reef building in southeast Florida during the Holocene. Using 146 radiometric ages from reefs extending ~ 120 km along Florida’s southeast coast, we test the hypothesis that the latitudinal extent of Holocene reef development in this region was modulated by climatic variability. We demonstrate that although sea-level changes impacted rates of reef accretion and allowed reefs to backstep inshore as new habitats were flooded, sea level was not the ultimate cause of reef demise. Instead, we conclude that climate was the primary driver of the expansion and contraction of Florida’s reefs during the Holocene. Reefs grew to 26.7° N in southeast Florida during the relatively warm, stable climate at the beginning of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) ~ 10,000 years ago, but subsequent cooling and increased frequency of winter cold fronts were associated with the equatorward contraction of reef building. By ~ 7800 years ago, actively accreting reefs only extended to 26.1° N. Reefs further contracted to 25.8° N after 5800 years ago, and by 3000 years ago reef development had terminated throughout southern Florida (24.5–26.7° N). Modern warming is unlikely to simply reverse this trend, however, because the climate of the Anthropocene will be fundamentally different from the HTM. By increasing the frequency and intensity of both warm and cold extreme-weather events, contemporary climate change will instead amplify conditions inimical to reef development in marginal reef environments such as southern Florida, making them more likely to continue to deteriorate than to resume accretion in the future.

Predicting shifts in distribution range and niche breadth of plant species in contrasting arid environments under climate change.

Arid environments face extreme risk from contemporary climate change; therefore, predicting the shifts in species distribution range and niche breadth in these environments assumes urgent research priority. Here we report the potential distribution and predict future distribution range of two model plant species typically representing contrasting environments across Asia and Africa: hot-arid Ephedra foliata and cold-arid E. gerardiana. We adopted a comparative modelling approach and used occurrence points from extensive field surveys, supplemented with herbaria records and publicly available distribution data. Our study reveals that currently an area of 8.797334 × 106 km2 (8.8%) is potentially suitable for E. foliata and nearly half 4.759326 × 106 km2 (4.8%) for E. gerardiana. Under future climate changescenarios, distribution range of E. foliata is predicted to expand but contract in E. gerardiana. Similarly, E. foliata showed broader niche breadth which is predicted to increase under B1 (0.097-0.125) and B2 (0.878-0.930) climatic changescenarios. In contrast, E. gerardiana had narrower niche breadth and expected to further decrease under B1 (0.081-0.078) and B2 (0.878-0.854). The most influential bioclimatic variable governing the potential distribution and niche breadth of E. foliata was the precipitation of warmest quarter, whereas that of E. gerardiana was temperature seasonality. The results from our study can help in developing potential indicator plant species for assessment and monitoring of distributionrange shifts in response to changing climate in the arid environments.

Managed retreat in response to flooding: lessons from the past for contemporary climate change adaptation

ABSTRACT Managed retreat is increasingly advocated as a means to promote resilience and adaptation to climate change. However, there are various uncertainties and challenges associated with the impacts of displacement and attachments to place. In this context, it is useful to study past examples of relocation to understand how these challenges have been addressed. This paper draws on a case study relocation scheme which took place in Ireland following major flooding in 1954. This represented a radical and comprehensive approach to relocation which sought to address the root causes of vulnerability. The analysis shows that this comprehensive approach was made possible through a connection between managed retreat and land reform. The scheme also faced opposition linked to attachments to place and property. This led to compromises and a failure to fully address the effects of flooding on livelihoods but contributed to resilience through ensuring that family and community ties remained intact. The paper’s distinctive contributions are its analysis of the requirements of transformative approaches to adaptation and relocation, its identification of challenges associated with place and property even in the context of such transformative approaches, and its adding of historical depth to contemporary debates on climate adaptation.

Deep Pasts – Deep Futures A Palaeoenvironmental Humanities Perspective from the Stone Age to the Human Age

Coagulating around the powerful notion of the Anthropocene – the proposed geological epoch of the ‘Human Age’ where anthropogenic control of and impact on nature has taken on a magnitude comparable to geological forces – many traditional humanities disciplines are rediscovering the environment as worthy of study. Ranging from eco-criticism to anthropology and history, the environmental humanities are dismantling the founding divisions of academic practice that confine the study of ‘nature’ to the natural sciences and the study of human society, culture, politics and ethics to the social sciences and humanities. Indeed, one of the environmental humanities’ most central contributions has been in addressing the question of ethical involvement when it comes to environmental research that has relevance in contemporary climate change debates. With its long-standing multidisciplinary affiliations and its many outstanding case studies of how the climates of the deep past have affected contemporaneous communities and how these communities have shaped their environs at various scales, archaeology is well positioned to contributing here. Yet, the discipline has so far been marginal in these emerging debates.
 Drawing on selected examples from the deepest Stone Age to the most recent past, I attempt in this keynote paper to bring together thoughts about the national framing of archaeological practice, archaeological interpretation and heritage management in Europe with preoccupations about past societal collapse under the umbrella of environmental ethical concerns. I argue ultimately that archaeology and archaeologists should involve themselves in environmental debates and in the wider environmental humanities project, but caution that due diligence is needed when operating in such a politically charged debate where personal and political opinions can swiftly overshadow supposedly objective scientific attitudes – and where sceptics stand ready to exploit such bias as well as the uncertainties inherent in archaeological knowledge. Nonetheless, archaeologists can contribute to contemporary climate debates in numerous ways: by writing articles for journals that influence policy-making upstream, through museum practice, and by collaborating with practitioners implementing climate change adaptation measures. I provide brief examples for these avenues and suggest that by re-orientating environmental archaeological engagements in this way, the discipline can gain relevance and recognition, and make a genuine contribution to solving one of our times’ most wicked problems.

The role of Tay indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation in the Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam

Through generations of observation and experimentation, the Tay people of Bac Kan Province in the Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam have developed complex farming systems, cultural practices and an indigenous knowledge base well-suited to their environments. Drawing on data collected through surveys, interviews and focus group discussions, this article first documents some of this knowledge and its role in supporting agricultural production. However, this research also uncovered that contemporary climate change is occurring at rates faster than that knowledge base can meaningfully adjust and adapt. Agricultural productivity was found to be greatly reduced, with men seeking off-farm employment to supplement the loss in income. Agrochemical use has soared and resulted in declines in the health of the local population. Village gender dynamics have also shifted and women have taken on the extra burden of farming. This paper posits that if indigenous knowledge was better integrated into adaptation planning and policies, its conservation and application would enhance resiliency to climate change in indigenous communities and beyond. Simultaneously, it also adds that as the nature, speed and severity of climate change in many marginal areas occur at rates faster than indigenous knowledge can adapt, blended forms of knowledge may offer practical solutions.

Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species.

Explaining why some species are widespread, while others are not, is fundamental to biogeography, ecology, and evolutionary biology. A unique way to study evolutionary and ecological mechanisms that either limit species' spread or facilitate range expansions is to conduct research on species that have restricted distributions. Nonindigenous species, particularly those that are highly invasive but have not yet spread beyond the introduced site, represent ideal systems to study range size changes. Here, we used species distribution modeling and genomic data to study the restricted range of a highly invasive Australian marine species, the ascidian Pyura praeputialis This species is an aggressive space occupier in its introduced range (Chile), where it has fundamentally altered the coastal community. We found high genomic diversity in Chile, indicating high adaptive potential. In addition, genomic data clearly showed that a single region from Australia was the only donor of genotypes to the introduced range. We identified over 3,500 km of suitable habitat adjacent to its current introduced range that has so far not been occupied, and importantly species distribution models were only accurate when genomic data were considered. Our results suggest that a slight change in currents, or a change in shipping routes, may lead to an expansion of the species' introduced range that will encompass a vast portion of the South American coast. Our study shows how the use of population genomics and species distribution modeling in combination can unravel mechanisms shaping range sizes and forecast future range shifts of invasive species.

Seagrass offsets acidification

Marine Ecology Gradual acidification of the world's oceans is driven by the uptake of carbon dioxide. This feature of contemporary climate change has potential consequences for marine life and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Ricart et al. show that acidification can be locally slowed or ameliorated by seagrass meadows, where uptake of carbon dioxide by the plants exceeds that produced by respiration. Along 1000 kilometers of Californian coastal waters and measured over 6 years, pH was elevated in most of the seagrass sites examined compared with adjacent sites. These findings add to the potentially beneficial suite of effects of the presence of seagrasses and macroalgae in coastal waters and indicate possible routes for the management of acidification in these systems. Glob. Change Biol. 27 , 2580 (2021).

Assortative mating can help adaptation of flowering time to a changing climate: Insights from a polygenic model

Several empirical studies report fast evolutionary changes in flowering time in response to contemporary climate change. Flowering time is a polygenic trait under assortative mating, since flowering time of mates must overlap. Here, we test whether assortative mating, compared with random mating, can help better track a changing climate. For each mating pattern, our individual‐based model simulates a population evolving in a climate characterized by stabilizing selection around an optimal flowering time, which can change directionally and/or fluctuate. We also derive new analytical predictions from a quantitative genetics model for the expected genetic variance at equilibrium, and its components, the lag of the population to the optimum and the population mean fitness. We compare these predictions between assortative and random mating, and to our simulation results. Assortative mating, compared with random mating, has antagonistic effects on genetic variance: it generates positive associations among similar allelic effects, which inflates the genetic variance, but it decreases genetic polymorphism, which depresses the genetic variance. In a stationary environment with substantial stabilizing selection, assortative mating affects little the genetic variance compared with random mating. In a changing climate, assortative mating however increases genetic variance compared to random mating, which diminishes the lag of the population to the optimum, and in most scenarios translates into a fitness advantage relative to random mating. The magnitude of this fitness advantage depends on the extent to which genetic variance limits adaptation, being larger for faster environmental changes and weaker stabilizing selection.

Non‐native species outperform natives in coastal marine ecosystems subjected to warming and freshening events

AbstractAimsContemporary climate change and biological invasions are two main drivers of biodiversity redistribution. Interactive effects between these drivers have been reported in a variety of studies, yet results are conflicting. Some studies find that contemporary climate change facilitates the spread and success of non‐native species, especially those with broad physiological tolerances. Other studies conclude that non‐natives are vulnerable to current and future changes in climatic conditions. Given that most studies have focused on terrestrial species, here we contribute to this debate by analysing responses of marine native and non‐native fauna and flora to key climate‐related stressors, namely increased temperature (warming) and decreased salinity (freshening).LocationGlobal.Time period2002–2019.Major taxa studiedMarine benthic macrophytes and invertebrates.MethodsWe conducted a meta‐analysis of experiments investigating the performance (e.g. growth, survival and reproduction) of benthic species in response to warming and freshening.ResultsWe found that non‐native species tended to respond positively to elevated temperature, whereas the performance of native species declined. Similarly, decreased salinity negatively affected the biological processes of native species, but non‐natives showed neutral or negative overall responses to freshening.Main conclusionsWe find evidence that non‐native species outperform natives under a wide variety of warming and freshening conditions. The growth and reproduction of non‐natives are enhanced by warmer temperatures, and thus ocean warming is expected to facilitate future spread and success of non‐native species. Increased freshening along future coastal areas, however, will likely have a negative impact in both native and non‐native species and thus is expected to be a driver of significant change in coastal marine ecosystems. Our comprehensive analysis highlighted the need to expand our understanding of climate change effects beyond warming and specifically, studies focusing on salinity changes.

Contrasting dynamical responses of sympatric caribou and muskoxen to winter weather and earlier spring green-up in the Arctic

Alteration of local biodiversity by climate change may be especially impactful in the Arctic, where species richness is characteristically low and environmental conditions are changing rapidly. Two species of arctic large herbivores that survived rapid warming during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, caribou and muskoxen, again face accelerated warming and changes in vegetation seasonality under contemporary climate change. While numerous studies have investigated the roles of weather and primary productivity in population dynamics of these species, opportunities for investigation of their dynamics in sympatric populations have been limited. We analyzed the population dynamics and offspring production of sympatric caribou and muskoxen at a study site in West Greenland over an 18-year period (2002–2019) during which the timing of spring green-up has advanced rapidly. In caribou, population growth rate and calf production were greater following warm winters but lower in years with earlier spring green-up. While calf production was highly variable, caribou abundance declined over the course of the study. In contrast, muskox population growth and calf production both increased following earlier springs. Moreover, muskox abundance increased over the course of the study, despite a negative association between their rate of increase and winter temperature, perhaps indicating that winter weather was less important than spring green-up timing in their dynamics. Hence, sympatric populations of these two herbivores displayed opposing demographic responses to winter weather and spring plant phenology at this shared location. These results emphasize the complexity of predicting large herbivore responses to climate change, and highlight the potential for impacts to species richness of large herbivore communities as the Arctic continues to warm.

Development of genetic tools for the redbait species Pyura herdmani and P. stolonifera, important bioengineers along African coastlines

The development of new genetic resources is key for biological conservation in an era when the preservation of biodiversity is crucial. Here, we report the development of microsatellites and mitochondrial markers for the redbait species Pyura herdmani and P. stolonifera, both important bioengineers along African coastlines. Specifically, we identified microsatellites by means of pyrosequencing and variable regions in the mitochondrial genome using RAD-seq libraries that were generated with Illumina sequencing. A total of 4 339 putative microsatellites were found, of which 32 were tested on individuals collected along the southeast coast of South Africa. Of those, five microsatellites cross-amplified consistently in both species, and these were tested on a total of 260 samples. Additionally, we mapped the partial mitochondrial genome of a small number of individuals from both species and identified the most-variable regions by comparing a small number of individuals from all regions where these species have been recorded (including western South Africa and northwest Africa). The genetic markers developed here can be used to conduct population genetic studies, to monitor range shifts under contemporary climate change, and to help in preserving ecosystem functioning along African coastlines.