Consumption Structure Research Articles

Garlic-Induced Enhancement of Bifidobacterium: Enterotype-Specific Modulation of Gut Microbiota and Probiotic Populations

The gut microbiome is a dynamic ecosystem crucial for maintaining its host’s health by regulating various immune and metabolic functions. Since diet plays a fundamental role in shaping the gut microbiome, understanding the relationship between food consumption and microbiome structure is essential. Although medicinal plants are widely recognized for their broad health benefits, their specific impact on the gut microbiome remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the effects of garlic (Allium sativum) on the gut microbiome using an in vitro human fecal incubation model. Our findings revealed that the impact of garlic on gut microbial structure varied depending on the dominant gut microbiome components (enterotypes). The Bacteroides-dominant enterotype exhibited significant changes in overall microbial diversity in response to garlic, while the Prevotella-dominant enterotype remained unaffected. Additionally, the garlic treatment led to specific alterations in microbiota composition, such as an increase in beneficial probiotics like Bifidobacterium. We validated garlic’s prebiotic potential by promoting the growth of Bifidobacterium adolescentis under in vitro culture conditions. Our study highlights the importance of understanding enterotype-specific responses to diet and suggests that garlic may serve as a dietary supplement for modulating gut microbiota and promoting the growth of beneficial probiotics.

Analyzing the Impact of Internet Use on Peer Effects in Farmers’ Adoption of Clean Energy: Strengthening or Weakening?

Enhancing farmers’ adoption of clean energy is crucial for promoting sustainable rural development and ecological environmental protection. It not only reduces the consumption of traditional fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions, and environmental pollution but also optimizes the structure of rural energy consumption, improves farmers’ quality of life, and supports the goal of building a green countryside. This paper investigates the impact of internet use on farmers’ adoption of clean energy and the associated peer effects, further exploring how internet use influences these peer effects. The analysis is based on data from the 2018 and 2020 waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The study’s findings reveal that (1) farmers’ adoption of clean energy exhibits a significant peer effect, and internet use also has a significant positive impact on this adoption. Both the peer effect and internet use effectively enhance farmers’ clean energy utilization, a conclusion that holds even after robustness checks. (2) Internet use significantly strengthens the peer effect, particularly when it is used for social and entertainment purposes, where this reinforcing effect is most pronounced. (3) The peer effect, the impact of internet use on clean energy adoption, and the strengthening of the peer effect by internet use vary according to farmers’ geographical location and household income. These findings provide valuable insights and recommendations for improving policies aimed at promoting clean energy adoption among farmers, ultimately fostering its broader diffusion and application in rural areas.

Spatial-temporal evolution and drivers of ecological sustainability of coastal fisheries in China

Marine fisheries are an important source for the survival and economic livelihood of the world's population. With coastal economic development, rapid population growth, and advances in fishing technology, oceans and coastal areas have been placed under greater environmental pressure. Therefore, the sustainability of coastal fisheries must be revisited. This study used the 3D ecological footprint (EF) model and partial least squares (PLS) to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of the ecological sustainability of coastal fisheries in China, and discuss the direct and indirect impacts of drivers from economic, social, and technological perspectives. Results showed that the gap between per capita EF and per capita biocapacity (BC) of coastal fisheries narrowed until it stabilized from 2010 to 2020. Footprint depth and size wholly showed a fluctuating upward trend. In terms of spatial distribution, footprint depth was high in the north and low in the south, and footprint size was a relatively scattered. Consumption pull had the largest effect on the ecological sustainability of coastal fisheries in China, followed by the economy push, but the effect of technology suppression was not significant. Some policy recommendations for sustainable fisheries governance were proposed in terms of consumption structure transformation, fisheries industry upgrading, and ecosystem-based management. This study indicated that the current development of coastal fisheries in China is sustainable from an ecological supply and demand perspective. The findings provide information on effective coastal fisheries governance and broad coastal and ocean management, and have the potential to provide references for sustainable fisheries governance in other coastal countries with similar contexts.

How does the energy consumption structure affect the green economic development? A spatial impact analysis

How does the energy consumption structure affect the green economic development? A spatial impact analysis

Комплексная оценка уровня жизни в регионах России с использованием метода главных компонент

A comprehensive assessment of the living standard was conducted based on nine indicators of income and their subjective perception, inequality, expenditure structure, social and economic status, presented by their values in 82 regions that are Russian Federation subjects. For their aggregation, the principal component method was used, which led to the extraction of two generalized factors that retain 61 % of the total variance of the original indicators and are interpreted as objective and subjective characteristics of the living standard. It was found out that the growth of the economy and income in the regions of the Russian Federation is accom-panied by an increase in economic inequality; a decrease in the food share in household expenditures and in-kind receipts in food consumption reflects the situation of an increase in the living standard; the subjective per-ception of the living standard is non-linearly related to its objective indicators. Based on the distribution analysis of the subjects of the Russian Federation in the space of two principal components, groups of regions-leaders and outsiders in objective and subjective indicators of the living standard were identified. It is shown that geo-graphic location is not a significant factor in the living standard.

Analysis of the structure and trend prediction of China's total health expenditure.

In the context of rapid economic and social development, there has been a continuous intensification of population aging, transformation of disease patterns, and wide application of new medical technologies. As a result, health expenditures in various countries have sharply soared. How to utilize limited medical resources to maximize the improvement of health levels has become a hot and challenging issue related to the well-being of all humanity. The relevant indicators of total health expenditure play a crucial role in monitoring and evaluating the fairness of health financing and health security in the region. This study explores the changes in the main expenses that constitute China's total health expenditure and uses indicators related to health expenditure to observe the changes and future development trends of China's health expenditure. Based on this, the utilization of China's health expenditure is monitored to identify possible problems, and thereby targeted suggestions for promoting the development of China's health and wellness cause are put forward. Based on the comparison of previous literature, this paper analyzes the changes and future development trends in China's health expenditure by using the relevant indicators of China's health expenditure through the structural variation analysis method and the gray prediction model. The results show that the scale of government, social, and out-of-pocket health expenditures has continuously expanded, with social health expenditures becoming the main funding source for total health expenditures. The burden of medical expenditures on individuals has been further reduced. In the institutional method of total health expenditures, hospital expenditures account for about 60% of the total and are the main component. The expenditures of health administration and medical insurance management institutions are the main driving force behind the growth of total health expenditures. However, the proportion of health expenditures in China's GDP is relatively low, so more investment is needed in the healthcare sector, and the burden of individual medical expenses also needs to be continuously reduced. In the future, China should further increase its investment in the medical and health sector. Specifically, the government should persist in investing in fundamental medical and health services. Simultaneously, efforts should be made to establish a scientific cost control mechanism for pharmaceuticals and broaden financing channels for healthcare, such as accelerating the development of commercial health insurance.

Determining the efficiency of local heat recycling wastewater based on a heat exchanger

RELEVANCE. The authors research the potential energy, economic and environmental effects of using local heat recovery from wastewater generated in showers. At the moment in Russia, almost all household wastewater is disposed of in sewer networks without the beneficial use of the heat that they possess. It is important to determine the effect of implementing this method of heat recovery, to identify and analyze the problems that prevent this from being done.THE PURPOSE. The purpose of the work is to determine the potential effect of using local heat recovery from wastewater generated in showers.METHODS. Based on a verified mathematical model of the heat exchanger, the energy effect from the individual use of the shower room is determined. A number of assumptions are applied to the heat consumption structure of an individual building and, based on available data on the average annual heat consumption of residential buildings in Moscow, the economic and environmental effect of energy-saving measures is calculated.RESULTS. Relative savings within the annual heat consumption of a building with a decentralized and centralized hot water supply system were 5,3% and 3,1%, respectively (64 and 37 GCal). Fuel economy amounted to: 9145 toe and 5227 toe for a building with a decentralized and centralized hot water supply system, respectively (14,5 and 8,5 thousand tons of CO2-eq). The payback period for energy-saving measures for the case of a decentralized hot water system based on an instantaneous electric water heater was 1,5 years.CONCLUSION. Local waste heat recovery makes it possible to obtain a significant energy and environmental effect within any locality, but at the moment there are no measures to support consumers implementing energy-saving measures. Currently, this method of heat recovery is of interest only to those consumers whose source of thermal energy for the needs of hot water supply is electricity.

Prediction of hydrate formation boundaries in pure water and salt/alcohol containing systems based on prior knowledge and artificial intelligence

As an efficient and clean energy source, natural gas plays a crucial role in optimizing the global energy consumption structure. However, the formation and accumulation of hydrates in pipelines during the exploitation and transportation of natural gas greatly jeopardize the production safety. Accurately predicting hydrate formation boundaries remains challenging due to the complex interation among various influencing factors. Although mechanistic models provide insights, they often fall short in accuracy. Conversely, machine learning models, while promising, may face limitations related to small sample sizes and a lack of physical interpretability. To overcome these limitations, this study proposed a physically guided neural network (PGNN) based on the Chen-Guo model, which integrated thermodynamic mechanisms with a neural network framework. This proposed model utilized pressure calculated from the Chen-Guo model as an input variable and incorporates physical inconsistencies into its loss function. A comparative analysis using literature data that PGNN achieved superior prediction accuracy, with an R2 value of 0.9768 for gas hydrate formation pressure prediction. The integration of thermodynamic mechanisms enhanced the prediction accuracy, as evidenced by an increase in the R2 value by 0.036, and a reduction in the MSE value by 5.56. Furthermore, the PGNN maintained a high level of prediction accuracy, ranging from 0.96 to 0.98, even with limited sample sizes, thus confirming its applicability and stability. This study validated the feasibility of PGNN for predicting gas hydrate formation conditions and offered insights into hydrate-based applications and hydrate management strategies.

The evolution of animal-based dietary structure has contributed to the increase of healthcare expenditures in China

The trends of diversified diets in China have generated a growing number of nutritional health problems, and healthcare investment is bearing a large burden from the diets, hindering the economic progress of the country and its residents toward affluence. This study linked the evolution of the Chinese dietary structure to changes in health expenditures and predicts future dietary patterns and their impact on health costs over the next 30 years. We found that in the past 30 years, the Chinese dietary structure has shifted towards a nutritional surplus type, and the structure of health expenditures has also shown a trend of two increases and one decrease. The consumption of plant-based foods is significant correlated with lower health expenditures, and animal-based foods show a significant impact on increase of health expenditures. Among nutrients, fat is significant correlated with increased health expenditures, whereas calorie intake is significant correlated with lower health expenditures. By 2030, the Chinese dietary structure will still evolve to a high-protein and high-fatty type. This shift will result in a decrease in per capita healthcare expenditure by 41.66 yuan and increases in household, state, personal, and total healthcare expenditures by 76.83 yuan, 18.76 billion yuan, 95.28 billion yuan, and 17.67 billion yuan, respectively. These findings demonstrate that adjusting dietary structures will bring the dual benefits of improved national health status and a favorable cycle of health expenditures.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Synergistic Effect of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction in China

Based on the use of the coupling coordination model to calculate the coupling coordination degree of carbon emission and pollutant control, the national, regional, and provincial spatiotemporal characteristics of the synergistic effect of pollution control and carbon emissions reduction in China were further analyzed, facilitating the crucial to identification of key areas. The fixed effects regression models and provincial panel data from 2006 to 2020 were used to explore factors contributing to better synergizing the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in China. On this basis, the adjustment variable of R&D investment intensity was introduced, and the regulation effect model was constructed to further explore the influence mechanism of the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The results showed that： synergy exists between carbon emission reduction and the air pollution control system, the evolution of the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in China presented an inverted "U"-shaped trend from 2006 to 2020, and there was spatial aggregation and a spatial spillover effect in pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The synergistic governance of carbon emission and pollutant control was still at a relatively low level. The carbon emission and air pollutant emission systems were still in an unstable and uncoordinated state. The results showed that： The degree of coordination of eastern China, central China, and western China decreased in turn. At the national level, energy consumption structure, per capita GDP, and the proportion of green investment were the main factors affecting the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon. The heterogeneity of the influencing factors existed in the central, eastern, and western regions on industrial structure, energy consumption structure, energy utilization efficiency, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, the proportion of green investment, and transportation structure. The intensity of R&D played a significant moderating effect in the whole country, eastern, and central regions. However, no significant moderating effect was identified in the western region. In the eastern region, the urbanization rate, the proportion of green investment, and the transportation structure could not have a significant effect on the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction alone, and it must be coordinated with the intensity of R&D.

Community-based elderly home care services policy and household consumption enhancement: Evidence from China

The influence of elderly consumption is increasing, and community-based elderly home care service (CEHCS), as an important social security system, will have a significant impact on household consumption levels and consumption structure. This paper utilizes data from five batches of CEHCS pilot policies implemented in China from 2016 to 2020, combined with data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2020, to design a dynamic difference-in-differences model to systematically evaluate the dynamic effects and mechanisms of CEHCS on elderly household non-durable goods consumption. The study found that after the coverage of CEHCS, the consumption levels of non-durable goods such as clothing, daily necessities, and cultural and entertainment products in middle-aged and elderly households significantly increased year by year, while consumption of durable goods significantly decreased. Moreover, the impact of CEHCS was more pronounced in households with lower housing assets and rural households. Mechanism analysis suggests that CEHCS promote the increase in non-durable goods consumption by alleviating children's labor constraints, reducing the family's caregiving burden, and diminishing precautionary savings. This paper provides further empirical evidence on the pathways through which elderly care services influence household consumption behavior, which holds significant implications for proactively addressing population aging and unlocking household consumption potential through micro-institutional design.

Energy efficiency of hydrogen production during dark fermentation

It is widely known that most of the world's energy is produced from non-renewable energy sources such as crude oil and coal. Hydrogen is an ideal fuel candidate with a high energy content and clean combustion product. Biohydrogen is an environmentally friendly, renewable biofuel with high energy density, making it a viable alternative to fossil fuels in the future. At the same time, despite the large number of articles on the intensification of both dark fermentation and anaerobic bioconversion in general, the operating costs of the proposed intensification methods are not well covered in the literature. The goal of the work was to estimate the conversion coefficient of thermal and electrical energy spent on the functioning of the process of dark fermentation of various organic wastes into the energy of produced hydrogen. A block diagram of the energy flows of the dark fermentation system and the structure of the energy consumption of the system were developed. The obtained literature and experimental data suggest that the conversion coefficient of energy into biohydrogen in the process of dark fermentation is less than 1, so to obtain 1 kWh of hydrogen it is necessary to expend more than 1 kWh of energy. At the same time, the use of a vortex layer apparatus for dark fermentation of the food waste model made it possible to increase the energy output of the process by more than 7 times, thereby bringing the values of the conversion coefficients of thermal and electrical energy closer to 1. Despite the fact that the energy efficiency of most known methods for producing hydrogen is higher than the energy efficiency of dark fermentation, it is worth noting that the raw material for producing hydrogen in the dark fermentation process is organic waste, and not high-energy fuel (natural gas, methane, coal) or water in the case of electrolysis. In addition, the use of a vortex layer apparatus for pre-treatment of the dark fermentation substrate made it possible to achieve electricity conversion coefficient values 40% higher than with water electrolysis.

Can Industrial Digitalization Boost a Consumption-Driven Economy? An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Data in China

A consumption-driven economy refers to an economic growth model primarily driven by domestic consumption and is a common goal for the economic growth of various countries. To explore the impact of industrial digitalization on a consumption-driven economy, this paper conducts an empirical study based on data from 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2021. The empirical test results indicate: first, industrial digitalization significantly promotes the development of a consumption-driven economy, mainly reflected in the improvement of economic foundation and consumption levels, but shows no significant effect on improving the consumption structure. Second, mechanism analysis results show that industrial digitalization can promote the development of a consumption-driven economy by fostering innovation and advancing the industrial structure. Third, heterogeneity analysis results reveal that the promotion effect of industrial digitalization on the consumption-driven economy exists only in eastern and central China but not in western China, indicating that industrial digitalization in underdeveloped areas cannot exert a positive effect on the consumption-driven economy.

Forecast of Commodity Energy Consumption and Structure of Rural Households in Sichuan Province

With the growth in energy consumption, problems such as environmental pollution and resource depletion are becoming more and more prominent, and the sustainable use of energy resources and sustainable economic and social development can be achieved only through scientific forecasting and effective management. Forecasting the changing trend of energy consumption structure can guide the government and society to take corresponding measures for environmental protection and sustainable development, and reduce the negative impact of energy consumption on the environment. Based on the current development situation of commodity energy in rural households in Sichuan Province and related consumption data, this paper uses the grey prediction model and Markov model to predict the consumption and consumption structure of commodity energy in rural households in Sichuan Province. It is found that among the four types of commodity energy consumed by rural households in Sichuan Province, the consumption of electricity shows exponential and growth, and it is expected that the consumption of electricity by rural households in Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2025 will be 3,316,166, 3,582,203, 3,886,622, and 4,216,240 tonnes of standard coal, respectively. Meanwhile, using Markov chain to predict the consumption structure, it is found that under the no-planning constraint scenario, the share of energy consumption of electricity and natural gas is increasing, while the share of energy consumption of coal and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will be decreasing, and the shares of energy consumption of coal, electricity, natural gas, and LPG will be 1.97 per cent, 75.82 per cent, 26.36 per cent, and 0.02 per cent, respectively, by 2030.

Сравнительная характеристика затрат рабочего времени врача-челюстно-лицевого хирурга, оказывающего помощь в стационарных условиях, в условиях организационного эксперимента.

In the system of organization of provision of specialized medical care on the profile of maxillofacial surgery there are significant changes in connection with the digitalization processes, the introduction of new medical-diagnostic technologies, the development of surgical interventions, that has a significant effect on the working time of the doctor – maxillofacial surgeon. Purpose of the study is to study the working time of the doctor-maxillofacial surgeon, who provides assistance in stationary conditions with the help of photochronometric measurements in dynamics before and after the introduction of organizational measures. Materials and methods. The study was carried out in 2018 and 2023, before and after the introduction of organizational measures, on the basis of the department of maxillofacial surgery of the Penza regional clinical hospital. N. N. Burdenko». Doctors-maxillofacial surgeons took part in the study. The following methods were used: analytical, photo-time, organizational experiment, statistical. In the course of the photo chronometric research, all activities were studied: main activity, document processing, support activities, work, other activities, personal time required, unencumbered time. Results and Discussion. Analysis of the data obtained showed that doctors-facial surgeons in 2018 conducted an average of 9.75+0.1 hours at the workplace, which is 1.95 hours above the norm. According to the results of the study the article reveals an imbalance of working time expenditure, significant time spent on unusual functions (provision of medical assistance in the reception department, completion of medical documentation)There’s a lot going on. Problems in the regulation of work of doctors-maxillofacial surgeons, as well as shortcomings in the organization of medical care on the profile of «maxillofacial surgery» were revealed as a result of the photochronometric researchIt was possible to identify the main directions for improving the provision of specialized assistance in the field of PF. After the behavior of organizational arrangements (change of localization of the department, staffing, new patient routing, strengthening of continuity) The results of a repeated photochromic study conducted in 2023 showed that the structure of the working time expenditure has changed significantly: the share of main activities has decreased from 61,46% in 2018 to 59.7% in 2023, the duration of work with medical documents increased from 16.3% to 20.1%, costs for support activities decreased from 14,63% to 7.6%, The cost of performance increased from 4.59% to 5.6%, personal time required increased from 0.86% to 2.0% respectively. In 2023 there is no open time (late to work). The organizational changes made have had a positive impact on the quantity of quality of the bed. The average duration of treatment in 2018 was 7.92 days, and in 2023–5.53 days. In 2018, the pre-operative bed day was 1.05 days, and in 2023–0.17 days, decreased by 6.2 times. Conclusions. It was found that the organizational changes, directly related to the opening of the regional center of maxillofacial surgery, allowed to change the routing of patients, improve the continuity with specialists of dental, traumatological, oncological, pediatric profile, rational use of personnel resources, provide assistance to children. The optimization of doctors’ activities has had a positive impact on the quantity and quality of the bed. A comparative description of the work time spent before and after the organizational experiment shows that the activity of the surgeonmaxillofacial round-the-clock hospital has changed significantly due to the reduction of the cost of performing unusual functions.

How does energy transition improve energy utilization efficiency? A case study of China's coal‐to‐gas program

AbstractImproving energy efficiency by adjusting the structure of energy consumption types is of great significance for reducing carbon emissions in the short term. The present paper constructs new data envelopment analysis models for evaluating energy utilization under different structural conditions and calculating potential emissions reductions. We conducted empirical research on 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2019—a time frame that coincides with the instituting of China's “coal‐to‐gas” program. Our results show that technological progress is the main way for China to reduce carbon emissions and that it is possible to reduce the total amount of carbon emissions by 35%. Additionally, optimizing the energy consumption structure following the coal‐to‐gas program guidelines could reduce the country's carbon emissions by a further 25%. Finally, this paper provides specific policy recommendations based on the efficiency analysis results to guide each province in reducing carbon emissions under the conditions of energy demand growth.

Livelihood Transformation of The K’Ho Sre Ethnic Minority in Lam Dong Province

The K’Ho Sre people in Lam Dong province were the largest local group of the K’Ho ethnic group. Their traditional livelihood activities were farming, animal husbandry, making traditional handicrafts, and participating in predatory economic activities (hunting, gathering, fishing). Nowadays, the K’Ho Sre ethnic group has been adapting to converting their livelihoods from traditional agricultural production models to agricultural production models by applying science and technology. This economic transformation was manifested in many aspects, notably the strong introduction of new farm production methods completely different from traditional production methods regarding cultivation techniques, seedling structure, and forms of exploitation and product consumption. Besides, there were some relatively new activities such as services, buying and selling, hiring, etc. The research was conducted through the following methods: synthesis, observation, survey, and analysis of field data for 400 K’Ho Sre ethnic families in Lam Dong to point out changes in livelihood activities and propose recommendations to contribute to hunger eradication, poverty reduction, and sustainable development.

Competitive position of sand-lime bricks in the domestic market, threats and opportunities for manufacturers

The problem of assessing the prospects of silicate bricks in the domestic market of small wall materials is discussed. The solution to this problem is based on the results of the analysis of the market situation, consumer preferences and competitiveness of silicate bricks. It is shown that in the period from 2014 to 2021 due to the stronger competitive position of autoclaved aerated concrete blocks and face ceramic bricks, the capacity of the market of silicate bricks decreased, its production volume and share in the structure of consumption of small-piece wall materials. The results of marketing research conducted on the basis of online questionnaires of respondents are presented, according to which the majority of respondents consider face ceramic bricks to be the material that best meets their requirements in terms of quality and appearance. The calculations showed that despite the fact that ceramic bricks have almost equal positions in terms of technical parameters and worse positions in terms of aesthetics, the most competitive material is, nevertheless, silicate bricks, which have a relatively low price. A number of threats for silicate brick producers include a decrease in demand for products, a high degree of wear and tear of technological equipment, dependence on foreign supplies of pigments, spare parts and components for equipment, insufficient level of professional competence of the personnel, etc. It is expected that in the future a number of manufacturers of sand-lime bricks will have to face the following challenges. It is assumed that in the future the ordinary silicate bricks will apparently “leave” the construction market, in connection with which manufacturers will have to focus on improving the quality and aesthetic parameters of facial silicate bricks while maintaining an attractive price for consumers.

Investigating the Relationship Between the Dynamics of the Structure of Intermediate Consumption and Output of Industries: Cross-Country Analysis

This paper examines one of the main prerequisites of the inter-industry balance methodology on the proportional dependence of the output of industries and their intermediate consumption. The statistical base of the study is the world input-output tables collected for the period from 2000 to 2014. According to the results of the work, it was revealed that the prerequisite of a proportional change in the vector of intermediate consumption with a change in output is not consistent. However, significant positive relationships were found between intermediate consumption and the output of industries. On the basis of the identified relationships, we conducted a clustering procedure on industries, where, in particular, clusters with strong, medium, and weak relationships between intermediate consumption and output are distinguished. Thus, the paper proposes to expand the input-output methodology by introducing proportionality coefficients for changes in the intermediate consumption of an industry with a change in its output. Proportionality coefficients are proposed to be obtained on the basis of regression equations built on statistical data from the input-output tables. It should be especially noted that in addition to obtaining point forecasts of intermediate consumption for each industry when its output changes, it is also possible to obtain probability distributions for the gross output of each industry, their value added, wages, taxes, and profits through Monte Carlo simulations based on the constructed regression equations, which will facilitate a scenario analysis of the development of the considered economic system. The results of this work can be useful to executive authorities in planning large state economic projects as well as in assessing the impact of external shocks on the countryʼs economy.

Decoupling economic development from carbon emissions: Insights from Chinese provinces

Decoupling economic development from carbon emissions is crucial for achieving sustainable development, particularly at the regional level. It also guides coordinated socio-economic development between regions. However, fewer studies analyze the long-term and short-term factors affecting decoupling from a dynamic perspective. Using annual data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021, this study assesses the level of decoupling in each province at both temporal and spatial levels and explores the factors influencing decoupling in the long and short term. The empirical results show that in the long run, the growth of industrial structure, R&D investment intensity, urban-rural income gap, and foreign trade promote the decoupling of economic development from carbon emissions. Conversely, the growth of energy consumption structure and energy prices inhibit decoupling. Short-term factors affecting decoupling vary significantly from province to province. To ensure the accuracy of the empirical results, this study conducted multidimensional heterogeneity and robustness analyses. Combined with the impulse response and variance decomposition results, it provides rational suggestions for effective decoupling strategies. This study offers a scientific basis for formulating sustainable development policies in various regions and serves as a valuable reference for other developing countries aiming to achieve harmonious economic and environmental development.