Consumption Plans Research Articles

Optimal consumption with Hindy–Huang–Kreps preferences under nonlinear expectations

AbstractWe study an intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem under Knightian uncertainty in which agent’s preferences exhibit local intertemporal substitution. We also allow for market frictions in the sense that the pricing functional is nonlinear. We prove existence and uniqueness of the optimal consumption plan, and we derive a set of sufficient first-order conditions for optimality. With the help of a backward equation, we are able to determine the structure of optimal consumption plans. We obtain explicit solutions in a stationary setting in which the financial market has different risk premia for short and long positions.

Randomizing without randomness

We provide a methodology for eliciting utility midpoints from preferences, assuming that payoffs are consumption plans and that preferences satisfy a minimal form of additive separability. The methodology does not require any subjective or objective uncertainty. Thus, this construction of utility midpoints allows us to define mixtures of acts in a purely subjective fashion, without making any assumptions as to the decision maker’s reaction to the uncertainty that may be present. This approach makes it possible to provide a simple and fully subjective characterization of the second-order subjective expected utility model, allowing a clear distinction of such model from subjective expected utility.

Are shore power and emission control area policies always effective together for pollutant emission reduction? – An analysis of their joint impacts at the post-pandemic era

Shore power (SP) and emission control area (ECA) have been two of the main polices for a green maritime logistics. However, it is still not clear how the joint impact of these two polices will influence vessels' shipping and energy consumption plan. The influence could be more complicated at the post-pandemic era of COVID-19 when the vessel's refueling could be risky. This paper develops mathematical model of the vessel's routing and fuel inventory decisions by considering both the SP and ECA. Based on the model, we analyze the optimal decision of a vessel under three different policy conditions, which are non-SP, compulsive utilization of SP at all ports, and optional SP utilization by the vessel. The numerical experiments are conducted based on the information of a vessel delivering cargos along the coastline in China. The results uncover a novel phenomenon that the implementation of the SP might incentive the vessel to travel longer distance outside the ECA for a lower total cost that results in more pollutant emissions. We show that the SP policy would influence the vessel's fuel management and refueling times which can change the route of vessel sailing inside and outside ECAs. Sensitivity analysis also shed light on how the government's decision on the SP policy may influence the overall pollutant emissions of the vessel from both berthing at ports and sailing on the sea. We discussed how the fixed cost of refueling, which is affected by the risk of the COVID-19 condition, will influence the vessel's plan under the SP and ECA polices. This study suggests the government to make an integrated policy of both SP and ECA at the post-pandemic era to achieve an overall reduction of the pollutant emission.

Generational Wealth Accounts: Did Public and Private Inter-Generational Transfers Offset Each Other over the Financial Crisis?

Abstract We develop Generational Wealth Accounts (GWA): the first set of balance sheets, by generations, to include all human capital, tangible wealth, financial wealth, and transfer wealth, and the uses to which these are put, and employ them to quantify inter-generational transfers and the sustainability of consumption. Consumption plans in the UK public sector worsened over the financial crisis and are unsustainable; private sector plans improved, and are now almost balanced. Increases in private capital transfers to the young offset the effect of increased public debt. House price increases shifted resources from young to old but had little effect on sustainability.

Inflation disasters and consumption

Consumers with longer-tailed subjective probability distributions of inflation anticipate lower real consumption growth and are more favorably inclined to purchasing durable goods. I propose a model in which rare inflation disasters increase the cost of future credit by raising debt issuance costs, prompting consumers to stock up on debt and move purchases to the present. Consistent with this theory, consumers with longer-tailed distributions anticipate higher future interest rates. The effects of anticipated tail risks on consumption plans are more pronounced among credit market participants.

Consumer Green Consumption Behavior

The objective of the current study is to assess research activities in green consumption behavior where the flow of information is helping consumers to mold their minds towards green consumption. Bibliometric analysis has been applied for the current study using 1447 research papers on green consumption behaviors from Scopus Indexed journals for the 2015 to 2020 period. The document with the maximum citation “Predicting green products consumption using the theory of planned behavior and reasoned action” is the article with the highest citation of 338. Further, the keywords co-occurrence analysis indicates that the maximum occurring keywords are “Green Consumption”, “Sustainability”, “Sustainable Development”, “Green Consumption Behavior”. This research adds to the current literature on the behavior of green consumption in the edge where information is floating in many ways. The current study will provide the first baseline data on this subject, which will be used for future comparisons and policymakers to develop green consumption plans.

Monetary Policy Announcements, Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Consumption Plans

Monetary Policy Announcements, Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Consumption Plans

Hierarchical stochastic scheduling of multi-community integrated energy systems in uncertain environments via Stackelberg game

An operating entity utilizing community-integrated energy systems with a large number of small-scale distributed energy sources can easily trade with existing distribution markets. To solve the energy management and pricing problem of multi-community integrated energy systems (MCIESs) with multi-energy interaction, this study investigated a hierarchical stochastic optimal scheduling method for uncertain environments. To handle multiple uncertainties, a Wasserstein generative adversarial network with a gradient penalty was used to generate renewable scenarios, and the Kmeans++ clustering algorithm was employed to generate typical scenarios. A Stackelberg-based hierarchical stochastic schedule with an integrated demand response was constructed, where the MCIES operator acted as the leader pursuing the maximum net profit by setting energy prices, while the building users were followers who adjusted their energy consumption plans to minimize their total costs. Finally, a distributed iterative solution method based on a metaheuristic was designed. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified using practical examples.

Validation of environmental Philips curve in Pakistan: a fresh insight through ARDL technique.

The tremendous increase of greenhouse gases puts adverse effects on environmental degradation, unemployment, and economic growth. Against this backdrop, and implementing the more recent estimation approach, the present study investigates the validity of the novel environmental Phillips curve (i.e., inverse relationship between unemployment and environmental degradation) carried by Kashem and Rahman (2020). The unique contribution of this research is to examine the three environmental indicators (CO2, CH4, and ecological footprint) as a dependent variable with the same independent variables, i.e., unemployment rate, energy consumption, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and globalization, from 1975 to 2014 in Pakistan. The results validate a negative relationship of unemployment rate with CO2, CH4, and ecological footprint in the long run that proves the existence of environment Philips curve for Pakistan. However, a positive association is observed for energy consumption and CO2, CH4, and ecological footprint. The positive connection of energy consumption and environmental indicators determined that not only CO2 emissions rather CH4 and ecological footprint play an equal role in environmental degradation.Furthermore, in the long run foreign direct investment improves environmental sustainability for CO2, and ecological footprint thus proved the pollution halo hypothesis for Pakistan. Probing the effects of globalization that badly pollutes environmental sustainability. Therefore, the policymakers should focus on innovations and technological improvements to contemplate both environmental degradation and unemployment. There is a need for sudden actions for energy consumption plans in Pakistan for the nation's health, economic growth, and environmental sustainability.

Intelligent energy optimization in park-wide farming considering user\u2019s preferences

With the development of park-level agricultural, agricultural production and household electricity fusion, it is of great significance to promote users to actively respond to power consumption plan based on their own habits. In this paper, a multi-objective household intelligent power consumption optimization model is proposed from two aspects of economy and comfort. Firstly, the operating constraints of interruptible loads and non-interruptible loads were established based on the working characteristics of various household appliances. Then, the expenditure model was constructed to take into account the electricity sales situation of surplus electricity generated by photovoltaic, and a three-layer index system quantifying the influence of user preference on comfort level was constructed. The preference coefficient was determined by analytic hierarchy process, which was used to construct the users’ comfort level model. Finally, the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm was applied to obtain optimization results. Considering the seasonal difference, the simulation showed that this model minimized the expenditure and increased the comfort level during summer and winter by 26.0% and 27.5% respectively.

Summarized distributions of mass: a statistical approach to consumers’ consumption spaces

This paper focuses on logical aspects of choices being made by the consumer under conditions of uncertainty or certainty. Such logical aspects are found out to be the same. Choices being made by the consumer that should maximize her subjective utility are decisions studied by revealed preference theory. A finite number of possible alternatives is considered. They are mutually exclusive propositions identifying all quantitative states of nature of a consumption plan. Each proposition of it is expressed by a real number. This research work distinguishes it from its temporary truth value depending on the state of information and knowledge of the consumer. Since each point of the consumption space of the consumer belongs to a two-dimensional convex set, this article focuses on conjoint distributions of mass. Indeed, the consumption space of the consumer is generated by all coherent summaries of a conjoint distribution of mass. Each point of her consumption space is connected with a weighted average of states of nature of two consumption plans jointly studied. They give rise to a conjoint distribution of mass. The consumer chooses a point of a two-dimensional convex set representing that bundle of goods actually demanded by her inside of her consumption space. This paper innovatively shows that it is nothing but a bilinear and disaggregate measure. It is decomposed into two real numbers, where each real number is a linear measure. In this paper, different measures are obtained. They can be disaggregate or aggregate measures, where the latter are independent of the notion of ordered pair of consumption plans.

Does a forward‐looking perspective affect self‐control and the demand for commitment? Results from an educational intervention

AbstractThis paper reports the results from a randomized educational intervention, that aims to build a forward‐looking perspective in children. We evaluate the effects of the intervention on planning, commitment and consumption decisions in an intertemporal task using a temptation good, chocolate. We find that treated children end up consuming less chocolate on the earlier date than control children. This is both because they make more patient consumption plans, and because they exhibit a type of extreme self‐control, eating even less than they had planned. Treatment effects are heterogeneous on gender, with treated girls becoming less present‐biased (as well as more future‐biased).

The consumer’s demand functions defined to study contingent consumption plans

Given two probability distributions expressing returns on two single risky assets of a portfolio, we innovatively define two consumer’s demand functions connected with two contingent consumption plans. This thing is possible whenever we coherently summarize every probability distribution being chosen by the consumer. Since prevision choices are consumption choices being made by the consumer inside of a metric space, we show that prevision choices can be studied by means of the standard economic model of consumer behavior. Such a model implies that we consider all coherent previsions of a joint distribution. They are decomposed inside of a metric space. Such a space coincides with the consumer’s consumption space. In this paper, we do not consider a joint distribution only. It follows that we innovatively define a stand-alone and double risky asset. Different summary measures of it characterizing consumption choices being made by the consumer can then be studied inside of a linear space over {mathbb {R}}. We show that it is possible to obtain different summary measures of probability distributions by using two different quadratic metrics. In this paper, our results are based on a particular approach to the origin of the variability of probability distributions. We realize that it is not standardized, but it always depends on the state of information and knowledge of the consumer.

Forecasting electric power consumption of technocenosis objects on the basis of values from transformed vector rank distribution

The article examines a technique for predicting the electric power consumption of technocenosis objects on the basis of the values of the transformed vector rank distribution. This technique includes the following stages: preparing data on electric power consumption, calculating an additional resource for technocenosis objects, forming transformed rank distribution and forecasting its values. The theoretical basis of the methodology was formed by the tenets of the theory of vector rank analysis, the methodology of functional rank analysis and the theory of mathematical statistics, as well as the concepts “technocenosis”, “MS-cenosis” and “bifurcation”. Its distinctive feature is the possibility to take into account the external control effect of a higher power system-MC-cenosis by adding or deducting an additional resource calculated using the system of transformed vector rank distributions. The additional resource is the difference between the values of the technocenosis located on the vector rank distribution of the higher MC-cenosis and the lower permissible value of the lower boundary of permissible values. The presented technique can be implemented in software and hardware complexes and situational centers for electric power consumption control in the area, energy system, transport network complex, large infrastructures and enterprises. The results will significantly supplement the methods of resource management for large infrastructure and energy facilities and form a resource consumption plan individually for each object.

Analisis perencanaan dan pengadaan guna menjamin ketersediaan obat di rumah sakit

Management of drug is one of the factors which contribute to the quality of hospital services. This study aimed at finding out drug planning in Pharmacy Unit of Adelia Surgical Hospital by using ABC analysis method. This research is qualitative descriptive study involving informants. Primary data were collected by interview with respondents and secondary data report of general drugs purchased period of May 2018 – May 2019. The Result using ABC analysis indicate that there are 23 (17,42%) kindof drugs in group A, 35 (26,52%) in group B and 74 (56,06%) in grup C. Group A if in the event of an excess or deficiency will couse harm to the hospital. ABC analysis method will effectively improve hospital drug consumption plan.

Price and Income Elasticities of Natural Gas Demand in Egypt: A Bound Test Approach

AbstractThis paper provides short and long-run estimates of price and income elasticities of Egypt’s natural gas demand using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration over the period 1983–2015. The results show that the long-run income and price elasticities, in absolute values, are greater than their counterparts in the short run. This result is due to the fact that consumers can modify their consumption habits and plans in the long run as a response to changes in the income or the price. Moreover, natural gas demand is more responsive to changes in income than changes in price in both the short and long run. Finally, the study examines the causality relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth for the gas-consuming sectors in Egypt. The results indicate that there is no causal relationship between the two variables for the electricity, petroleum, and household sectors in the short-run. By contrast, there is a unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to the economic activity of the transportation sector and a unidirectional causality running from economic activity to natural gas consumption by the industry sector.

Forecasting Chinese economic growth, energy consumption, and urbanization using two novel grey multivariable forecasting models

Economic growth, energy consumption, and urbanization are mutually influenced, therefore, forecasting economic growth, energy consumption and urbanization in China has always been important as it could help government to improve energy policies and plans. To this end, two novel grey multivariable models, SRMGM(1, M) and BRMGM(1, m), are designed in this paper. Compared with the MGM(1, M) model, the SRMGM(1, M) model can optimize the background of the traditional model according to the Simpson formula, and the BRMGM(1, m) model optimizes the background value according to a Boolean formula. The reconstruction of background value can reduce the prediction error of MGM(1, M) model. Furthermore, rolling prediction is added to these two new models based on the priority principle of new information. In order to validate their efficacy and accuracy, the two proposed models are employed to reproduce and predict economic growth, energy consumption, and urbanization compared with MGM(1, m) model and three linear regression models. FDs of our models, in both fitted and predicted stages are all over 97%, and the ADFs are all below 5%. The results show that our new models achieves higher fitted and predicted accuracy than MGM(1,m) model and the non-grey models. Eventually, the new models will be used to forecast economic growth, energy consumption, and urbanization from 2020 to 2025, and the forecast results provide a solid basis for economic growth policies and energy consumption plans.

Optimal scheduling of integrated demand response-enabled integrated energy systems with uncertain renewable generations: A Stackelberg game approach

In order to balance the interests of integrated energy operator (IEO) and users, a novel Stackelberg game-based optimization framework is proposed for the optimal scheduling of integrated demand response (IDR)-enabled integrated energy systems with uncertain renewable generations, where the IEO acts as the leader who pursues the maximization of his profits by setting energy prices, while the users are the follower who adjusts energy consumption plans to minimize their energy costs. Taking into account the inherent uncertainty of renewable generations, the probabilistic spinning reserve is written in the form of a chance constraint; in addition, a district heating network model is built considering the characteristics of time delay and thermal attenuation by fully exploiting its potential, and the flexible thermal comfort requirements of users in IDR are considered by introducing a predicted mean vote (PMV) index. To solve the raised model, sequence operation theory is introduced to convert the chance constraint into its deterministic equivalent form, and thereby, the leader–follower Stackelberg game is tackled into a mixed-integer quadratic programming formulation through Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions and is finally solved by the CPLEX optimizer. The results of two case studies demonstrate that the proposed Stackelberg game-based approach manages to achieve the Stackelberg equilibrium between IEO and users by the coordination of renewable generations and IDR. Furthermore, the study on a real integrated energy system in China verifies the applicability of the proposed approach for real-world applications.

A Brief Study of Dietary Salt Intake in an Urban Population

Background: The purpose of this study is to investigate the amount of salt consumed by the people living in Yazd, Iran and its related factors based on previous investigations.
 materials and methods: A general search was performed on electronic databases of Daneshgostar Barakat system, Magiran, SID and English databases such as Scopus, PubMed, Web of sciences, Science direct, and Google scholar search engines using following keywords: "salt intake" OR "sodium intake" OR "salt reduction" OR "salt content" OR "sodium reduction" OR "Diet, Reducing" regardless of the time interval. A total of 273 articles were obtained from the mentioned website. Papers published up to September 30, 2019 were retrieved. A total of 15 related articles were analyzed, and studies on the amount of salt consumed were evaluated.
 Results: The amount of salt received by the people of Yazd is higher than the standard of the World Organization and has an increasing trend.
 Conclusion: A population-based approach for salt intake reduction can lower blood pressure levels and presumably significantly reduce mortality. Therefore, the implementation of a comprehensive plan and intervention for salt consumption is necessary for this population.

Wasting less food: smart mass customisation of food provision

With as much as one third of all food wasted, the highly reported environmental footprint of global food supply provides an urgent driver for changes to be made to food provision and consumption. In developed countries the main point of waste generation is at the consumption level (typically over half of the waste by mass), but it is too easy to attribute the problem to consumer behavior \– it is a systematic problem of the entire supply chain. This current research addresses the issues of supply and demand balancing, down to the consumer level, through the development of a product service system (PSS) that enables consumers to better plan and purchase items for consumption. As part of the PSS, an inventory management system allows intelligent and highly convenient purchasing based on available food (e.g. leftover inventory from the previous week) and on consumer preferences and requirements. This agile planning is based on an artificial intelligence driven system. In this respect, a smart platform is conceptualized to automatically match recipes from an existing database with available ingredients via machine learning, with the aim of providing solutions in terms of shopping order recommendations for the following week. This mass customization of food supply further enables producers and providers to manage demand by promoting or restricting foodstuffs that are in excess or limited supply, respectively. The platform thus allows reduction of food waste at the consumer level and further up the supply chain. This paper demonstrates the need for better matching of supply and demand within the food supply chain, describes the basis for a PSS for food provision including optimization of recipe selection. A case study is developed to exemplify how the proposed platform could be implemented within modern commerce systems.