Non-durable Consumption Research Articles

Know More, Spend More? The Impact of Financial Literacy on Household Consumption

This paper examines the relationship between household consumption and financial literacy. The economic framework is a simple life-cycle model of consumption in which financial literacy affects the rate of return on assets. The theoretical predictions are that, for plausible values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, financial literacy is positively related to both the level of consumption and consumption growth. We empirically test these theoretical predictions with Dutch data from the LISS household panel. Our results provide evidence in favour of a positive association between non-durable consumption, and in particular food consumption, and financial literacy. No evidence is, however, found in favour of an association between consumption growth and financial literacy.

The Extensive Margin of Aggregate Consumption Demand

Abstract About half of the change in U.S. non-durable consumption expenditure is due to changes in the products entering households’ consumption basket (the extensive margin). Changes in the basket are driven by fluctuations in the rate at which households add products; removals fluctuate little. These patterns reflect that, in response to income increases, households adopt consumer products already available in the market. Household adoption amplifies the effects of fiscal transfers on consumption by more than 30%. Cyclical household adoption of products also implies that inflation measures based on a representative household consuming all varieties available in the market underestimate true household-level inflation by as much as 1% per year over the Great Recession in the consumption categories covered by our data.

Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?*

AbstractRecessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L‐shaped’ or ‘U‐shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U‐shaped recovery for postwar NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U‐shaped but more recent recessions have been L‐shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relatively well by durable consumption, investment, labour hours and employment. Posterior probabilities for the shape of recoveries for nondurable consumption and participation rate are less decisive. However, total factor productivity appears to recover rapidly after all recessions.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Consumption of Nondurables and Services

Contrary to the Great and other past U.S. Recessions, the reduction in services consumption exceeds the decline in nondurables consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the drivers of this unprecedented phenomenon through the lens of an estimated multi-sector DSGE model that distinguishes between nondurables and services sectors. We find that economic uncer- tainty is once again important but it does not generate sectoral heterogeneity. Demand-side factors reallocating consumption across sectors and proxying for voluntary and regulatory social distancing measures, as well as the lack of wage adjustments in services despite plummeting employment, become influential during the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the consumption of nondurables and services

ABSTRACT Contrary to the Great and other past US Recessions, the reduction in services consumption exceeds the decline in nondurables consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the drivers of this unprecedented phenomenon through the lens of an estimated multi-sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that distinguishes between nondurables and services sectors. We find that economic uncertainty is once again important, but it does not generate sectoral heterogeneity. Demand-side factors reallocating consumption across sectors and proxying for voluntary and regulatory social distancing measures, as well as the lack of wage adjustments in services despite plummeting employment, became influential during the pandemic.

Time Variation in Lifecycle Consumption and Income

We document systematic and significant time variation in US lifecycle non-durable consumption profiles. Consumption profiles have consistently become flatter: differences in consumption across generations have decreased. Pooling data across different periods to identify lifecycle profiles masks relevant time variations and may artificially generate hump-shaped consumption age profiles. The main driver behind lifecycle consumption variations are lifecycle income changes, which display similar flattening. Employing a lifecycle model we show changes in income are sufficient to match the movements in consumption. The contributions of credit, housing and interest rates changes are quantitatively small.

The consumption response to borrowing constraints in the mortgage market

This paper shows that relaxing borrowing constraints positively affects household consumption in addition to stimulating housing market activity. We focus on the UK Help-to-Buy (HTB) program, which provided a sudden relaxation of the down payment constraint by facilitating home purchases with only a five percent down payment. Our research design exploits geographic variation in exposure to HTB and uses administrative data on mortgages and car sales in combination with household survey data. We estimate that the program increased total home purchases by 11 percent, and the increase was driven almost entirely by first-time and young buyers. Regions that were more exposed to the program experienced a rise in non-durable consumption unrelated to the home and in loan-financed car purchases, in addition to an increase in home-related expenditures. These results are independent of changes in regional house prices. Our findings point to a further link between the housing market and household consumption that does not operate through the home purchase and housing wealth channels.

Household Inequality and Risk Sharing in Australia

ABSTRACT This study presents estimates of multidimensional household inequality in Australia from 2001 to 2017. Earnings inequality declines through the sample, while disposable income, non-durable consumption expenditures, food expenditures and net worth inequality exhibit relatively flat trends. The relatively flat trend for non-durable expenditures inequality, even over the life cycle, suggests households insure consumption against idiosyncratic shocks. Standard regression estimates of consumption growth against income shocks confirm this finding. Quantile regression estimates indicate households experiencing negative (positive) consumption growth have more sensitivity to negative (positive) income shocks than households with positive (negative) consumption growth, but coefficient estimates have small magnitudes, confirming standard tests.

Consumption Dynamics and a Home Purchase

English Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of a home purchase, which is one type of durable expenditure, on changes in non-durable consumption at the household level. The results suggest that there is a break on the consumption path at the time of a home purchase; non-durable consumption in the after-period of a home purchase is 5.2% higher than the before-period. The results propose an extra path that connects the two cycles of housing markets and consumption by suggesting that home purchases trigger not only additional home-related durable spendings, but also release delayed consumption.

Housing equity and household consumption in retirement: evidence from the Singapore Life Panel©

ABSTRACT Housing affordability for elderly homeowners involves an entirely different set of issues as compared to housing affordability for first-time homeowners. To afford to ‘age-in-place’ may require homeowners to access channels that enable them to withdraw their housing equity to finance consumption in retirement. We utilize data from the Singapore Life Panel© survey to empirically investigate the impact of housing equity on the consumption of elderly households. Based on panel analysis, we find housing equity value has no significant impact on non-durable consumption for elderly people. The conclusion holds for a battery of robustness checks. Moreover, heterogeneity analyses based on subsamples by the health condition, the age of household head, the house type, and the number of properties owned also show no significant impact of housing equity on consumption. Finally, we use scenario analysis to study the Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS), a novel housing equity monetization scheme that allows elderly households to unlock housing equity for retirement financing. An individual scenario analysis reveals positive but negligible effects, which may explain the low take-up rate for the LBS.

A Guide on Solving Non-convex Consumption-Saving Models

Consumption-saving models with adjustment costs or discrete choices are typically hard to solve numerically due to the presence of non-convexities. This paper provides a number of tools to speed up the solution of such models. Firstly, I use that many consumption models have a nesting structure implying that the continuation value can be efficiently pre-computed and the consumption choice solved separately before the remaining choices. Secondly, I use that an endogenous grid method extended with an upper envelope step can be used to solve efficiently for the consumption choice. Thirdly, I use that the required pre-computations can be optimized by a novel loop reordering when interpolating the next-period value function. As an illustrative example, I solve a model with non-durable consumption and durable consumption subject to adjustment costs. Combining the provided tools, the model is solved almost 50 times faster than with standard value function iteration for a given level of accuracy. Software is provided in both Python and C++.

Disaggregated Indian Industrial Cycles: A Spectral Analysis

We study the structure and dating of disaggregated Indian industrial cycles and spectral causality from different policy parameters to these cycles. The scattered pattern of peaks and troughs after 2013, suggests some industries continued to do well during an extended slowdown. Post 2011 industrial cycles have been shallow and short. The exchange rate, currency, credit, nominal and real interest rates all affect industry cycles, but differences in impact by industry type may be due to the structure of the economy. Cash and credit are more important for consumer non-durables, while interest rates affect consumer durables and capital goods. Interest rates do matter but in combination with currency and credit. Co-movement across disaggregated industry points to some common drivers. Stabilization policies need to be used more and fine-tuned based on research. Results on the dating and duration of industry cycles, their cyclicality, phase shifts, amplitude, lead-lag sectors, duration asymmetry and co-movement can help design appropriate policies.

Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: What can we learn from durable goods?

We study the cyclical dynamics of consumption in the euro area (EA) and the large EA countries by distinguishing durable from nondurable expenditures. We adopt a theoretical partial equilibrium framework to justify the identification strategy of our empirical model, a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR). Following the main insight from the theoretical model, that liquidity constraints induce important interactions between durables and nondurables, we distinguish durable-specific demand and supply shocks, while taking into account monetary and credit conditions. Our main findings are: (i) durables react faster and more strongly than nondurables after monetary shocks in the euro area and in the largest EA countries, a confirmation of an outcome commonly reported for the US; (ii) there is a large degree of cross-country heterogeneity in how different factors (including durable-specific ones) explain consumption; (iii) the strength of spillovers from durable to nondurable consumption, as predicted by theory, is empirically correlated with how much households across countries are likely to be liquidity constrained.

The Enduring Effects of Interest Rates at Mortgage Origination

Modest differences in the interest rate at home purchase can have long-lasting effects on mortgagors. We use within-year variation in average interest rates at loan origination to instrument for contracted mortgage rates. For homeowners with negative equity, a 50bp increase in the national rate at origination leads to an increase in defaults of 10-20% of the sample average, but the instrument is not correlated with worse credit. Consistent with liquidity constraints, the magnitude is constant across many different levels of negative equity. During the boom, lower interest rates result in increased consumption of non-durables and services, while total expenditure is unchanged.

Housing Risk and the Cross-Section of Returns Across Many Asset Classes

When households consume both nondurable goods and housing services, external habit preference over nondurable consumption generates procyclical demand for housing. Marginal utility falls when housing demand rises and innovations to housing demand arise as a risk factor. Motivated by theory, we use shocks to the ratio of residential-to-aggregate investment to capture the housing demand risk. The single-factor model exhibits strong explanatory power for expected returns across various equity characteristic-sorted portfolios and non-equity asset classes with positive risk price estimates that are similar in magnitude. The model is robust to controlling for other factor models based on durable consumption, financial intermediaries, household heterogeneity, and return-based multifactor models designed to price these assets.

Currency Futures' Risk Premia and Risk Factors

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling period. The FFP appears to be a pre-crisis phenomenon and is only observed for maturities longer than about one month. When examining whether the observed excess returns of futures contracts represent a fair compensation for currency risk, we find that non-durable consumption risk and market risk can explain excess currency returns. But only in the pre-crisis period and when the maturity of the assets is longer than about three months.

Non-durable consumption and housing net worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from easily accessible data

In an influential paper, Mian, Rao, and Sufi (2013) exploit geographic variation to measure the effect of the fall in housing net worth on household expenditures during the Great Recession. Their widely-cited estimates are based on proprietary house price and proprietary expenditure data and therefore not easily replicable. We use alternative data on a subset of non-durable goods and on house prices, which are more easily accessible, to replicate their study. When estimating their same specification on our data, we obtain values for the elasticity of expenditures to the housing net worth shock that are virtually indistinguishable from theirs. However, our robustness analyses with respect to alternative model specifications yield more nuanced conclusions about the separate roles of house prices and initial housing exposure/leverage for the drop in expenditures. Moreover, the estimated elasticity is consistent, theoretically and quantitatively, with a simple calibrated model with wealth effects where leverage and credit constraints play no role.

Intratemporal nonseparability between housing and nondurable consumption: Evidence from reinvestment in housing stock

Using the data on maintenance expenditures and self-assessed house value, I separate the measure of individual housing stock and house prices, and use these data for testing whether nondurable consumption and housing are characterized by intratemporal nonseparability in households’ preferences. I find evidence in favor of intratemporal dependence between total nondurable consumption and housing. My findings indicate the elasticity of intratemporal substitution between nondurable consumption and housing is higher than the elasticity of intertemporal substitution for composite consumption bundles. Moreover, assuming CES utility, my results are indicative about complementarity between nondurable consumption and housing in the intratemporal preferences.

Production Networks in Europe: A Natural Experiment of the EU Enlargement to the East

This paper focuses on the 2004 enlargement of the European Union to the East and treats it as a natural experiment to investigate two issues: first, whether there has been a trade creation effect in final and intermediate goods and second, to what extent this effect has been more pronounced for final or for intermediate goods. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we find that the effect of the 2004 EU enlargement has been positive for both intermediate and final goods trade, and it is in general greater for final goods. Using a generalized gravity model of trade that controls for the multilateral resistance and bilateral time-invariant factors, we estimate an increase in bilateral trade of 28% for final goods and 24% for intermediates. However, the effects are heterogeneous by sub-sector and indicate that the main trade gains were for non-durable consumer goods and food and beverages primary and processed products.

Why durability matters? Towards a Comparative Economic Sociology of Market Organization

AbstractWhat can a good’s durability tell us about its market organization? This paper argues that the socially expected durability of goods is one of their most important features. It illuminates temporal and material aspects of market organization and social change across different markets. While recent literature in the sociology of markets tends to emphasize financial goods, intangible assets, and the service economy, markets for material durable and nondurable consumer goods are still surprisingly pervasive in everyday life and in the household economy, as well as in modern economies’ basic infrastructure. Based on a comparison of the extreme cases of durable housing and fresh fish markets, we come to the general finding that the higher a good’s expected durability, the smaller the share of its new production will be and the larger its aftermarkets. Furthermore, it will be more tightly linked to credit and insurance markets, and its market will be more volatile in the short-term, but more inert in the long-term. Beyond this static distinction, we show how socio-technical mechanisms can “durabilize” or “dedurabilize” goods and hence change their market form. By comparing markets along the durability dimension, this paper contributes to a comparative sociology of market organization that goes beyond single-market studies, while at the same time opening up space for a more dynamic understanding of social change and market segmentation over time.