Conspiracy Beliefs Research Articles

How conspiratorial beliefs spread, and how real conspiracies are covered up

ABSTRACT Recent research on conspiracy theories (in philosophy and elsewhere) has tended to focus on beliefs that seem (from a ‘mainstream’ perspective) outlandish and patently false: QAnon, Covid-19 vaccines containing traceable microchips, 9/11 as an ‘inside job’. What is arguably conspicuously absent in much of this literature is a parallel reflection on the existence of real conspiracies. To fill this lacuna, I adopt an environmental epistemic perspective – where agents are considered in the broader context of epistemic environments and where attentional networks and perceptions of trustworthiness significantly influence the uptake of beliefs in an epistemic community – to explain both how conspiratorial beliefs spread and how real conspiracies can be hidden from the public. I argue that these two kinds of processes are each other’s counterparts, structurally having much in common. In both cases, epistemic environments can be ‘engineered’ so as to foster the spread of certain beliefs (regardless of their truth or plausibility), or alternatively so as to hide certain facts that conspirators do not want to become widely known. A pessimistic implication of my analysis seems to be that we are simply not well-equipped to distinguish, on principled grounds, conspiratorial beliefs that merit further investigation from those that do not.

Down the “Rabbit Hole” of Conspiracy-Fueled White Nationalism: Linking Outgroup Threat and Uncertainty to Conspiracy Beliefs and Prejudice Toward Immigrants

White nationalists represent a growing security threat worldwide. Of concern are their narratives and conspiracy theories that position immigrants of diverse color and religion as the feared “other”—outgroups that are perceived to threaten the values, resources and safety of White people. We use survey data from 570 White Australians to better understand how and why such perceived “outgroup threats” elicit prejudice toward non-White immigrants. We find that perceived outgroup threats are strongly associated with greater prejudice. Importantly, we find that belief in The Great Replacement conspiracy theory explains the outgroup threat/prejudice relationship, while heightened feelings of uncertainty strengthen the relationship.

Nudging (dis)trust in science: Exploring the interplay of social norms and scientific trust during public health crises

AbstractIn times of public health crisis, such as the COVID‐19 pandemic, there is a critical need for interventions that emphasize group unification. Such interventions may motivate individuals to adhere personally and collectively to health advice, enhance national solidarity, and reduce conspiratorial beliefs among members—particularly among those who may express skepticism or distrust towards science. Across three experimental studies (Ntotal = 1604) conducted online (Experiments 1 & 3) and in a real‐world setting (Experiment 2) in Ireland and Kosovo, we assessed participants' trust in science (i.e., the extent to which they trust in science and scientists) and exposed them to one of three conditions regarding COVID‐19 health advice: compliance (i.e., the majority of ingroup members comply with the health advice), non‐compliance (i.e., the majority of ingroup members do not comply with the health advice), or no advice (i.e., control condition with no health advice information). Overall, the results showed that participants with low (vs. high) trust in science intended to adhere to health advice, expected ingroup members to do the same, experienced greater national solidarity, and reduced their conspiracy beliefs in the compliance condition compared to noncompliance or control conditions. Participants' feelings of national solidarity explained the observed effects. In sum, this set of experimental studies shows that compliance with health advice during a health crisis not only enhances national solidarity but also promotes adherence to health behaviors and reduces conspiracy beliefs, especially among those initially skeptical of science.

“The Right to Our Own Body Is Over”: Justifications of COVID-19 Vaccine Opponents on Israeli Social Media

Vaccines decrease morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, their benefits depend on public response. During COVID-19, vaccine hesitancy and refusal were rampant, threatening public health. A thorough understanding of opponents’ arguments is required to address the diffusion of unreliable information on social media and prevent vaccine hesitancy from developing into vaccine refusal. The focus on the opponents’ viewpoints and their justifications makes the study unique. Accordingly, textual content analysis of reader comments on three health-related Israeli Facebook pages was conducted. Data collection encompassed the Israeli COVID-19 vaccination period from October 2020 to May 2022. The comments were analyzed according to the health beliefs model (HBM). We found that vaccine opponents were characterized by low perceptions of the severity of the disease combined with high perceptions of the damages of the vaccine; low perceived benefits of vaccine compliance; vaccine hesitancy and fear along with public distrust as barriers to change; and call for action to resist the vaccine and spread related anti-establishment views on the web. Hesitancy was found to develop into public distrust in the state systems and escalate into conspiracy beliefs and anti-vaccination activism. These results are important and instructive that early detection is necessary to prevent future vaccine resistance.

How Do COVID-19 Job Loss and Workplace Closures Affect COVID-19 Policy Satisfaction and Conspiracy Beliefs?

The COVID-19 mobility restrictions, including workplace closures, introduced by national governments led to disruption of social and economic life including job loss. With the job loss, the victims may encounter social and economic threats which can prompt them to show less support for the government that introduced the workplace closures which led to their job loss. Thus, this study investigates whether job loss resulting from COVID-19 prompts COVID-19 anti-cohesive attitudes (dissatisfaction with government’s response to COVID-19, and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs) in Europe; and whether strictness of workplace closures moderates the first proposition. The focus is on Europe because the degree of job loss and workplace closures vary between countries. With some COVID-19 items from the round 10 data of the European Social Survey conducted between 2021 and 2023, and independent context indices, the propositions are tested using a mixed model having about 142 groups and 25000 observations. The model formula has COVID-19 anti-cohesive attitudes as the response variable, COVID-19 job loss as the predictor variable at individual level, while COVID-19 workplace closures is the context variable. The findings support the hypotheses: COVID-19 job losers (compared to COVID-19 job keepers) are about 20percent more likely to show anti-cohesive attitudes; also, COVID-19 anti-cohesive attitudes are more predominant among COVID-19 job losers where workplace closures are very strict compared to where workplace closures are low. These findings are useful for policy makers in future pandemic management. Also, scientists may find the results useful for research on socioeconomic threats, public policy and cohesive attitudes.

Deeper Down the Rabbit Hole: How Technology Conspiracy Beliefs Emerge and Foster a Conspiracy Mindset

Conspiracy theories are increasingly emerging as a threat to contemporary society. Prior research highlights the crucial role that information technology (IT) plays in accelerating the spread of these theories. However, mass media coverage suggests that the role of IT extends beyond mere dissemination as conspiracy theories often target the technology itself. In this research, we explore the prevalence of technology conspiracy beliefs—specifically, beliefs in technology-related conspiracy theories, the factors promoting these beliefs, and their consequences. Our findings reveal that technology conspiracy beliefs are widespread, affecting popular commercial technologies, such as Amazon Echo and Google Search Engine, as well as public technologies designed for societal well-being, such as contact tracing apps. Moreover, we demonstrate across four empirical studies that technology conspiracy beliefs reinforce a conspiracy mindset. This mindset is associated with a breakdown of social collaboration, constructive political discourse, and society’s ability to respond to crises. Given that these beliefs impede the adoption of beneficial technology and foster a harmful conspiracy mindset, they should be a primary concern for technology designers, managers, and policymakers. By identifying the perceptions of technology and its provider that promote these conspiracy beliefs, we provide initial insights into ways to mitigate their emergence.

When alienated from society, conspiracy theory belief gives meaning to life

BackgroundConspiracy theory belief – explaining the ultimate causes of social and political events with claims of secret conspiracies – is assumed to arise from a desire to make sense of uncertainty, especially in times of crisis. However, there is no compelling evidence that conspiracy theory belief actually fulfils this function, particularly in terms of evaluating one's life as meaningful. We posit that the adoption of conspiracy theory belief can be explained as a fluid compensation when a more proximal source of meaning, a sense of belonging to society, is threatened. Thus, a positive association between conspiracy theory belief and meaningfulness should emerge when people feel alienated from society. We therefore tested the hypotheses that alienation from society correlates negatively with meaningfulness (H1), and that it moderates the relationship between conspiracy theory belief and meaningfulness (H2). MethodConspiracy theory belief related to the COVID-19 pandemic, meaningfulness (Meaning and Purpose Scales, MAPS), and perceived alienation from society were assessed in a representative sample of N = 974 German residents. ResultsAs expected, alienation from society was inversely related to meaningfulness and moderated the relationship between conspiracy theory belief and meaningfulness. According to the interaction, a positive association between belief in conspiracy theory and meaningfulness emerged when individuals experienced themselves as alienated from society. ConclusionThe results suggest that conspiracy theory belief might alleviate a lack of meaningfulness caused by experienced alienation from society. Individuals who felt discriminated against, treated unequally, or having their rights restricted were more likely to hold conspiracy theory belief, which was associated with a greater sense of meaning in their lives.

When reality knocks on the door. The effect of conspiracy beliefs on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and the moderating role of experience with the virus

Rationale:Prior research suggests that belief in conspiracy theories can reduce the willingness of individuals to get vaccinated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining factors that may moderate this negative effect is an important area of research. Objectives:The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between vaccine uptake and two types of conspiracy beliefs (COVID-19 and vaccine-related) and the moderating role of direct and indirect experiences with the coronavirus. Methods:We draw on nationally representative survey data collected in Hungary in January 2022 (N=1000, 47% male, 53% female; mean age 49.6 years). Structural equation models and multi-group analysis were performed. Results:Conspiracy beliefs were strongly associated with vaccine uptake, however, both direct and indirect experiences with the virus moderated the effect of conspiracy beliefs. Individuals who experienced a serious infection or reported a close person being infected by the virus developed severe symptoms or even died were less likely to take conspiracy theories seriously when deciding about their own vaccination. In two out of the four tested moderation effects, a negative experience with the virus reduced the negative effect of conspiracy beliefs. Discussion:Our findings demonstrate that personal or close real-life experience with severe COVID-19 infection can significantly mitigate the impact of conspiracy beliefs on vaccine hesitancy, highlighting the importance of real-life evidence in overcoming misinformation and increasing vaccine uptake. Nevertheless, it is important to mention that our results are preliminary, and future studies need to replicate the findings and test their robustness.

COVID-19 vaccine mistrust, health literacy, conspiracy theories, and racial discrimination among a representative ethnically diverse sample in Canada: The vulnerability of Arab, Asian, Black, and Indigenous peoples.

Despite increased risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2infections and higher rates of COVID-19-related complications, racialized and Indigenous communities in Canada have lower immunization uptake compared to White individuals. However, there is woeful lack of data on predictors of COVID-19 vaccine mistrust (VM) that accounts for diverse social and cultural contexts within specific racialized and Indigenous communities. Therefore, we sought to characterize COVID-19 VM among Arab, Asian, Black, and Indigenous communities in Canada. An online survey was administered to a nationally representative, ethnically diverse panel of participants in October 2023. Arabic, Asian, Indigenous, and Black respondents were enriched in the sampling panel. Data were collected on demographics, COVID-19 VM, experience of racial discrimination, health literacy, and conspiracy beliefs. We used descriptive and regression analyses to determine the extent and predictors of COVID-19 VM among racialized and Indigenous individuals. All racialized respondents had higher VM score compared to White participants. Among 4220 respondents, we observed highest VM among Black individuals (12.18; ±4.24), followed by Arabic (12.12; ±4.60), Indigenous (11.84; ±5.18), Asian (10.61; ±4.28), and White (9.58; ±5.00) participants. In the hierarchical linear regression analyses, Black participants, women, everyday racial discrimination, and major experience of discrimination were positively associated with COVID-19 VM. Effects of racial discrimination were mediated by addition of conspiracy beliefs to the model. Racialized and Indigenous communities experience varying levels of COVID-19 VM and carry specific predictors and mediators to development of VM. This underscores the intricate interaction between race, gender, discrimination, and VM that need to be considered in future vaccination campaigns.

Conspiracy Beliefs and Perceptions of Electoral Integrity: Cross-National Evidence from 29 Countries

Abstract Extant research shows that belief in conspiracy theories and conspiratorial thinking are negatively related to citizens’ perceptions about the fairness and integrity of elections. However, by exclusively focusing on the United States as only one important empirical case, previous studies have left unanswered crucial questions on the scope, generalizability, and context dependency of their empirical findings. In this research note, I aim to fill this void by providing first empirical evidence on the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and electoral-integrity perceptions across twenty-nine countries. Using high-quality individual-level data from the European Social Survey enriched with contextual-level data on the quality of elections taken from the Varieties of Democracy Project, the findings from linear mixed-effects regression models reveal that (1) conspiracy beliefs are negatively related to citizens’ evaluations concerning the integrity of national elections; (2) the specific strength of the observed individual-level relationship varies substantially across countries; and (3) the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and individual electoral-integrity perceptions depends on the contextual-level quality and integrity of elections across countries. Specifically, the results indicate that the negative relationship between conspiracy beliefs and electoral-integrity perceptions is strongest in contexts in which the actual quality of elections is high, and in which citizens have little reason to (seriously) doubt the integrity of the electoral process. These findings provide an important and hitherto missing cross-national and multilevel perspective on the nexus between individual conspiracy beliefs and electoral-integrity perceptions, highlighting that the “conspiratorial challenge” to electoral legitimacy in contemporary democracies is real and more than an “American affliction.”

Engaging with Conspiracy Believers

AbstractConspiracy theories abound in social and political discourse, believed by millions of people around the world. In this article, we highlight when it is important to engage with people who believe in conspiracy theories and review recent literature highlighting how best to do so. We first summarise research on the potentially damaging consequences of conspiracy beliefs for individuals, including consequences related to psychopathology. We also focus on the consequences for groups, and societies, and the importance of understanding and addressing conspiracy beliefs. We then review recent literature on how to engage with people who believe in conspiracy theories, specifically with the goal to reduce susceptibility to conspiracy theories and other types of misinformation. We focus on interpersonal strategies to communicate with individuals who believe in conspiracy theories, and large-scale strategies designed to reduce conspiracy beliefs within broader communities.

How do beliefs in free will and determinism correlate with beliefs in conspiracy, paranormal, and pseudoscience beliefs?

In this study, we tested the relationship between personal agency beliefs, represented by free will, scientific and fatalistic determinism and unpredictability, and epistemically suspect beliefs (ESBs), including conspiracy, paranormal, and pseudoscience beliefs, across two different cultures (Türkiye and the UK). In two preregistered studies (NStudy 1 = 682, NStudy 2 = 532), we proposed and found correlational evidence for the idea that although seemingly contradictory, both forms of determinism—scientific and fatalistic—might lead individuals to feel a reduced control over their actions, prompting them towards simpler explanations offered by ESBs, thereby compensating for a diminished sense of agency. The relationship between free will, unpredictability, and ESBs varied by culture, likely influenced by the cultural interpretation of those beliefs. Our results underscore the link between personal agency and ESBs, suggesting that ESBs may act as a safeguard against eroding personal agency.

Rejection of the status quo: Conspiracy theories and preference for alternative political systems.

Conspiracy theories introduce a democratic paradox, as belief in conspiracy theories predicts support for both democratic and non-democratic political systems. In this article, we explore whether democratic and anti-democratic attitudes, resulting from conspiracy beliefs, can be mutually exclusive. In Study 1 (United Kingdom, N = 293), we show that belief in conspiracy theories is associated with decreased support for representative democracy, and increased support for direct democracy, anarchism, and autocracy within the same individuals. In Study 2 (United States, N = 302, pre-registered), we experimentally show that the perceived presence of conspiracies is linked to an increased preference for direct democracy, anarchism, and autocracy and decreased support for representative democracy. Mediational analyses suggest that widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo and, less consistently, feelings of political cynicism mediate the relationships between conspiracy beliefs and (anti-)democratic attitudes. In Study 3 (United States, N = 400, pre-registered), we experimentally manipulate (dis)satisfaction with the status quo. Results indicate that rejecting the status quo increases support for direct democracy, anarchism, and autocracy and decreases support for representative democracy. Overall, our findings suggest that people who believe in conspiracy theories tend to favour both democratic and anti-democratic political alternatives, largely attributed to citizens' desire to change the status quo.

Skepticism and physics: epistemic beliefs of Norwegian physics students compared with other student groups

The purpose of this study is to examine how physics students position themselves compared to other student groups on various attitudes and opinions relevant to the tradition of “scientific skepticism”. Previous research has shown physics students identifying and having mindsets in line with the epistemic ideas from this philosophical tradition, promoting disbelief in epistemically unfounded ideas, and skeptical inquiry as a tool for evaluating claims. In this, we employ quantitative constructs testing conspiracy beliefs and supernatural beliefs along with established psychological constructs for social dominance orientation, and the conspiracy mentality questionnaire that have previously been shown to have interconnectedness. After showing several direct comparisons between different student groups, the paper also examines other elements that can influence “scientific skepticism”, like education level, education type, and gender via multivariate regression analysis. The results suggest physics students tend to position themselves to the end of the spectrum on several constructs connected to scientific skepticism, both compared to students from the humanities and social sciences, and students from other STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields, and the regression analysis finds being a physics student contributes a statistically significant contribution along the tested dimensions. The paper discusses possible reasons for this and what this tells us about physics students and physics education.

Populist Attitudes and Conspiracy Beliefs in Slovak Society: Pandemic vs Post-pandemic Data

The continued success of populist political subjects can be observed in many countries in recent years, including Slovakia. Society is polarized, and dissatisfaction, anger, and fear are coming to the fore. This has been exacerbated by the pandemic, which, as a crisis, typically increases the potential for the spread of unfounded or even conspiratorial beliefs. As the occurrence of the mentioned phenomena postulates similar questions, the study's objective is to identify the rate of occurrence of populist attitudes and trust in conspiracy content during and after the pandemic. At different stages of the pandemic course, the prevalence of populist attitudes in the sample of Slovak adult men and women (N = 1345) and the tendency to trust conspiracy beliefs both in general and specifically in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic are examined. Using the Populist Attitudes Scale, the Generic conspiracist beliefs scale, and the authors' questionnaire on belief in conspiracy claims related to the COVID-19 virus, we found a high prevalence of the variables of interest, with the highest rates observed in women, people of older age and people with lower education. Across the different phases of data collection, attitudes and beliefs were relatively stable, and a linear association was observed between them. The results demonstrate the validity of the study of populist attitudes and the tendency to believe in conspiracy content, while at the same time raising questions for further research.

Coping capacity attenuates the effect of natural disaster risk on conspiracy beliefs

Natural disasters have threatened human societies throughout history, however, their psychological effects on people are not fully understood. We hypothesized that natural disaster risk and lack of coping capacity are positively related to conspiracy beliefs and tested these relationships across three studies. Study 1 analyzed a global dataset (47,816 participants; 67 countries) and found support for the positive relationships between natural disaster risk, lack of coping capacity, and conspiracy beliefs. Study 2 (preregistered; N = 400) manipulated natural disaster risk, yielding the predicted effect on conspiracy beliefs. Study 3 (preregistered; N = 451) introduced an additional manipulation of coping capacity. The results supported our hypothesis that high natural disaster risk predicted increased conspiracy beliefs especially when coping capacity was low. Overall, the findings suggest that improving coping capacity might be effective for governments to reduce people's conspiracy beliefs in the context of natural disasters.

Conspiracy beliefs in the context of a comprehensive rationality assessment

The recent intense interest in conspiratorial thinking is fuelled by the perception that belief in conspiracies is highly irrational. However, there have been few studies that have examined the associations of conspiracy belief with a comprehensive battery of rational thinking tasks that tap both epistemic and instrumental rationality. The Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking (CART) provides an opportunity to do just that because one of the subtests on the CART assesses the tendency to believe false conspiracies. That subtest is in the part of the CART that measures the presence of contaminated mindware—stored declarative knowledge that embodies poorly justified beliefs. Converging analyses (N = 747) using the 18 subtests and four thinking dispositions measured on the CART indicated that three variables were key predictors of conspiratorial thinking: superstitious thinking, actively open-minded thinking, and probabilistic reasoning. Theoretical consideration of these best predictors, and of the variables that predict the endorsement of true conspiracies, led us to rethink the classification of conspiracy belief as contaminated mindware and move instead towards a conception of conspiratorial thinking as a cognitive style.

A cross‐country assessment of conspiracy beliefs, trust in institutions, and attitudes towards the Covid‐19 vaccination

A cross‐country assessment of conspiracy beliefs, trust in institutions, and attitudes towards the Covid‐19 vaccination

Religion, spirituality, and susceptibility to conspiracy theories: examining the role of analytic thinking and post-critical beliefs

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the political and scholarly attention on conspiracy theories. Among other predictors, religious and spiritual influences on conspiracy beliefs have been widely discussed in the literature. We suggest analyzing the relationship between religion and spirituality on the one hand and conspiracy beliefs on the other hand from the perspective of religious information processing. Based on the Post-Critical Beliefs Scale (PCBS), we argue that literal interpretations of religious information are positively associated with conspiracy beliefs. Furthermore, we assume that individual differences in analytic cognitive style account for the relationship between religious attitudes, spirituality, and conspiracism. Using a quota sample of German adults, we find that literal interpretations of religious content positively correlate with conspiracy beliefs for the literal affirmation of transcendence (e.g., orthodoxy) and the literal disaffirmation of transcendence (e.g., atheism). These findings suggest that religious information processing is related to conspiracy beliefs for religious and nonreligious individuals. Moreover, our results show a stable association between holistic spirituality and conspiracy beliefs. The relationships between different types of religious attitudes, spirituality, and conspiracy beliefs hold, even after accounting for analytic (versus intuitive) thinking. The implications for the study of religious attitudes and conspiracy beliefs are discussed.

The secular voter: Secularism and political attitudes in the United States

AbstractAs America grows more secular, secularism is increasingly relevant for American political attitudes and behavior. In this article, we contend that secularism—conceptualized as the affirmative embrace of secular belief and identity—is distinct from nonreligiosity, which is simply the absence of religion. We also argue that, at present, secularism is primarily a psychological, and not a social, orientation. Secular belonging and behavior are quite rare and generally unimportant politically, but secular belief and identity are far more prevalent and politically relevant. We examine the relationships that secular belief and identity, secular behavior, and nonreligiosity have with political orientations. Secular belief and identity have a much stronger and more consistent political connection than do secular behavior or nonreligiosity. Then, operationalizing secularism simply as secular belief and identity, we assess its connection to contemporary conspiracy beliefs and to support for democratic values. We find that secularists disavow most conspiracy theories and support the core democratic values of participatory democracy, freedom of expression, and political tolerance. Secularism's connection to political tolerance and support for freedom of expression is quite interesting because it is very different from those of liberal ideology and Democratic partisanship.