Scaling Considerations Research Articles

Multi-Level, Multi-Scale Modeling and Predictive Mapping for Jaguars in the Brazilian Pantanal

Multi-level multi-scale resource selection models using machine learning were compared and contrasted for generating predictive maps of jaguar habitat (Panthera onca) in the Brazilian Pantanal. Multiple spatial scales and temporal movement levels were run within several analytical modeling frameworks for comparison. Included in the analysis were multi-scale raster grains (30 m, 90 m, 180 m, 360 m, 720 m, 1440 m) and GPS collaring temporal movement levels (point, path, and step). Various analytical methods were used for comparison of models that could accommodate data structural levels (group, individual, case-control). Models compared included conditional logistic regression, generalized additive modeling (GAM), and classification regression trees, such as random forests (RF) and gradient boosted regression tree (GBM). The goals of the study were to discuss the potential and limitations for machine learning methods using GPS collaring data to produce predictive habitat suitability mapping using the various scales and levels available. Results indicated that choosing the appropriate temporal level and raster scale improved model outputs. Overall, larger level analytical modeling frameworks and those that used multi-scale raster grains showed the best model evaluation with the inherent condition that they predict a broader scale and subset of data. The identification of the appropriate spatial scale, temporal scale and statistical model need careful consideration in predictive mapping efforts.

Scaling protection and restoration of natural infrastructure to reduce flood impacts and enhance resilience

Restoring natural infrastructure offers much promise as a means to reduce both flood hazard and exposure to complement and supplement other flood damage reduction strategies. Interest increased in flood risk reduction methods using natural and naturebased features, in part, because of increased recognition that such could provide both flood risk reduction and other benefits, such as water quality uplift, community recreational space, and fish and wildlife habitat. Recent flood disasters and the rising costs of disaster response and recovery have triggered policy shifts toward economically efficient investments that enhance greater community resilience. While natural infrastructure is becoming more widely recognized as a tactic for building community and ecological resilience to erosion and flooding, it remains underutilized. Actions to aid consideration of natural infrastructure and scale up its use are presented.

A novel hedonic price modelling approach for estimating the impact of transportation infrastructure on property prices

Hedonic estimations of the effect of transport infrastructure on property prices vary widely. This high variability demonstrates a deficit in our understanding of these relationships, limits the utility of econometrics for the valuation of urban property markets, and limits the development and implementation of effective and fair market-based policy tools. Several avenues may lead to improved consistency: re-consideration of accessibility, inclusion of urban design characteristics, assessment of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, and consideration of geographic scale. This paper outlines the rationale and opportunities for inclusion of, and presents empirical tests for, these assertions using a case study in western Sydney, Australia. Results show a number of urban design characteristics to be significant determinants of residential property price. Street connectivity and higher density in areas surrounding residences negatively impact price, higher density close to train stations positively impacted price in one model. Park-and-ride stations led to decreases in property values. Smaller study area results indicate a nonlinear relationship between distance to train station and property price and a disamenity impact for residences within 400 m of train stations. Relative accessibility measured as frequency of peak hour trains is a significant and positive determinant of price in the larger study area. Incorporation of a price trend surface and estimation using a spatial error model reduce the extent to which spatial autocorrelation overstates the effect of a train station on prices. These conceptual and empirical improvements further develop our understanding of the effect of transport infrastructure on property values.

Sex biased individual variation in movement patterns of a highly mobile, near-shore marine planktivore, the reef manta ray Mobula alfredi.

We examined individual variation and the role of sex on the movements of the reef manta ray Mobula alfredi. Specifically, we analysed several movement metrics using 6 years of nightly observations (1 January 2009-31 December 2014) of 118 individually identifiable manta rays at two discrete but spatially proximate sites, locally known as Manta Heaven and Manta Village, 15 km apart on the west side of the island of Hawaii, USA. Males were slightly more often (33.5%, model fitted mean, P < 0.05) observed than females at Manta Heaven, but females were much more often (156.4%, model fitted mean, P < 0.05) observed at Manta Village. Movement patterns among individuals varied greatly, but the level of variation was similar between sexes. Some animals, mainly females, displayed more resident patterns, whereas other, more mobile, animals moved between sites more frequently and had longer gaps between sightings. We did not detect discrete behavioural groups; rather, individuals varied along a continuous spectrum from many observations and high affinity to few observations and low fidelity to survey locations. These complex and variable movement patterns observed at the individual level, between sexes and between two nearby sites, in Hawaii's manta rays highlight the need for finer scale considerations in conservation and management of highly mobile marine populations.

On the Effects of Advection and Vortex Stretching

We prove finite-time singularity formation for De Gregorio's model of the three-dimensional vorticity equation in the class of $L^p\cap C^\alpha(\mathbb{R})$ vorticities for some $\alpha>0$ and $p<\infty$. We also prove finite-time singularity formation from smooth initial data for the Okamoto-Sakajo-Wunsch models in a new range of parameter values. As a consequence, we have finite-time singularity for certain infinite-energy solutions of the surface quasi-geostrophic equation which are $C^\alpha$-regular. One of the difficulties in the models we consider is that there are competing \emph{nonlocal} stabilizing effects (advection) and destabilizing effects (vortex stretching) which are of the same size in terms of scaling. Hence, it is difficult to establish the domination of one effect over the other without having strong control of the solution. We conjecture that strong solutions to the De Gregorio model exhibit the following behavior: for each $0<\alpha<1$ there exists an initial $\omega_0\in C^\alpha(\mathbb{R})$ which is compactly supported for which the solution becomes singular in finite-time; on the other hand, solutions to De Gregorio's equation are global whenever $\omega_0\in L^p\cap C^{1}(\mathbb{R})$ for some $p<\infty$. Such a dichotomy seems to be a genuinely non-linear effect which cannot be explained merely by scaling considerations since $C^\alpha$ spaces are scaling subcritical for each $\alpha>0$.

Biodiversity Offsets Can Be a Valuable Tool in Achieving Sustainable Development Developing a Holistic Model for Biodiversity Offsets That Incorporates Environmental, Social and Economic Aspects of Sustainable Development

The interpretation and use of biodiversity offsets in planning and development is a contentious issue because they rarely encompass each of the environmental, social and economic aspects of sustainable development. While currently agreed best practice for biodiversity offsets includes consideration of scope, scale, location, timing and duration, and monitoring, current literature on these components does not consider all aspects of sustainable development. Furthermore, much of the current agreed best practice focusses on the design of biodiversity offsets, without consideration of ongoing management or end-of-life. This manuscript reviews current best practice for biodiversity offsets, giving consideration to the environmental, social and economic aspects of sustainable development. In particular, we report that consideration of cost and risk is key and the use of planning frameworks, bonds and advanced offsets could mitigate these risks and allow for long-term success. Following this approach, a holistic model for design, implementation and ongoing management of direct biodiversity offsets that balances all aspects of sustainable development is presented.

Deep Random Subspace Learning: A Spatial-Temporal Modeling Approach for Air Quality Prediction

Decrease in air quality is one of the most crucial threats to human health. There is an imperative and necessary need for more accurate air quality prediction. To meet this need, we propose a novel long short-term memory-based deep random subspace learning (LSTM-DRSL) framework for air quality forecasting. Specifically, we incorporate real-time pollutant emission data into the model input. We also design a spatial-temporal analysis approach to make good use of these data. The prediction model is developed by combining random subspace learning with a deep learning algorithm in order to improve the prediction accuracy. Empirical analyses based on multiple datasets over China from January 2015 to September 2017 are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework for hourly pollutant concentration prediction at an urban-agglomeration scale. The empirical results indicate that our framework is a viable method for air quality prediction. With consideration of the regional scale, the LSTM-DRSL framework performs better at a relatively large regional scale (around 200–300 km). In addition, the quality of predictions is higher in industrial areas. From a temporal point of view, the LSTM-DRSL framework is more suitable for hourly predictions.

Health system strengthening-Reflections on its meaning, assessment, and our state of knowledge.

Comprehensive reviews of health system strengthening (HSS) interventions are rare, partly because of lack of clarity on definitions of the term but also the potentially huge scale of the evidence. We reflect on the process of undertaking such an evidence review recently, drawing out suggestions on definitions of HSS and approaches to assessment, as well as summarising some key conclusions from the current evidence base. The key elements of a clear definition include, in our view, consideration of scope (with effects cutting across building blocks in practice, even if not in intervention design, and also tackling more than one disease), scale (having national reach and cutting across levels of the system), sustainability (effects being sustained over time and addressing systemic blockages), and effects (impacting on health outcomes, equity, financial risk protection, and responsiveness). We also argue that agreeing a framework for design and evaluation of HSS is urgent. Most HSS interventions have theories of change relating to specific system blocks, but more work is needed on capturing their spillover effects and their contribution to meeting overarching health system process goals. We make some initial suggestions about such goals, to reflect the features that characterise a "strong health system." We highlight that current findings on "what works" are just indicative, given the limitations and biases in what has been studied and how, and argue that there is need to rethink evaluation methods for HSS beyond finite interventions and narrow outcomes. Clearer concepts, frameworks, and methods can support more coherent HSS investment.

Exploration of socio-family and psychological characteristics of young males convicted of murder or attempted murder in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Introduction: Different developmental and environmental vulnerability conditions can influence violent behavior in young people.Objectives: To describe the characteristics of young males who were convicted of murder or attempted murder in the province of Buenos Aires, based on indicators of maturity, impulsivity, and socio-family vulnerability.Materials and Methods: Descriptive and exploratory study. The sample consisted of 195 young men (mean: 16.8 years) imprisoned in reformatory institutions of the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina, as they were convicted of murder (n=130), repeated murder (n=15), or attempted murder (n=50). Self and hetero-informed instruments, and professional assessment scales were used, namely: the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFC); the Psychosocial Maturity Inventory (PSM); the Weinberg Adjustment Inventory (WAI); the Resistance to Peer Influence Questionnaire (RPIQ); the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV); the Inventory of Callous Unemotional Traits (ICU), and the Barrat Impulsiveness Scale version 11 (BIS-11).Results: The distribution of the total BIS 11 and the PSM Individual Adaptation were normal (mean: 62.33 and 6.38, respectively). The mean of the total PCL:YV was 25.87. In 32.8% of the cases a first degree relative was also imprisoned. “Impulsive” and “Nonimpulsive” clusters were empirically established.Conclusions: The participants’ profile is characterized by several psychological and socio-family vulnerabilities that should be targeted in preventive interventions aimed at preventing violent recidivism.

Causal analysis in control–impact ecological studies with observational data

Abstract Randomized experiments have long been the gold standard in determining causal effects in ecological control–impact studies. However, it may be difficult to address many ecologically and policy‐relevant control–impact questions‐such as the effect of forest fragmentation or protected areas on biodiversity through experimental manipulation due to scale, costs and ethical considerations. Yet, ecologists may still draw causal insights in observational control–impact settings by exploiting research designs that approximate the experimental ideal. Here, we review the challenges of making causal inference in non‐experimental control–impact scenarios as well as a suite of statistical tools specifically designed to overcome such challenges. These tools are widely used in fields where experimental research is more limited (i.e., medicine, economics), and could be applied by ecologists across numerous sub‐disciplines. Using hypothetical examples, we discuss why bias is likely to plague observational control–impact studies in ways that do not surface with experimental manipulations, why bias is generally the barrier to causal inference, and different methods to overcome this bias. Satellite‐, survey‐ and citizen–science data hold great potential for advancing key questions in ecology that would otherwise be prohibitive to pursue experimentally. However, to harness such data to understand causal impacts of land, environmental and policy changes, we must expand our toolset such that we can improve inference and more confidently advance ecological understanding and science‐informed policy.

The fuzzy future: Time horizon, memory failures, and emotional distress in gambling disorder

This study aimed to first investigate the interplay among self-rated ability in both retrospective and prospective memory, time perspective, and negative affectivity to gambling severity. Two hundred and three habitual players took part in the study. Participants were administered the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), the Consideration of Future Consequences scale (CFC-14), the Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ), as well as the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21). Overall, data indicated that the higher the involvement in gambling, the higher the depression levels and the shorter the time horizon. The results of linear regression analysis showed that, along with gender, years of education, depression, and inattention to the future consequences of actual behavior, the negative self-perception of prospective memory functioning represents a significant predictor of gambling severity. Finally, to clarify if depression was on the path from prospective memory to gambling severity or if prospective memory was the mediator of the impact of depression on gambling severity, data were submitted to path analysis. Results indicated that depression has a direct effect on gambling severity and mediates the association between prospective memory and gambling involvement. The relation between gambling severity and prospective memory scores suggests that impairment in prospective memory plays a key role in adult problematic gambling.

Militarized masculinities beyond methodological nationalism: charting the multiple masculinities of an Indonesian jihadi

AbstractStudies of masculinity and armed conflict have struggled to capture the complex interaction between globalized militarized masculinities and local gender formations. Particularly in conflicts characterized by a high degree of combatant mobility (in the form of foreign fighters, massed displacement, or significant diaspora involvement) locating the relevant gender dynamics can prove to be a difficult step in understanding the character of armed groups. Based on fieldwork with Indonesian former foreign fighters, we make the case that feminist international relations have tended to unreflectively default to the nation when locating gender hierarchies. Exploring the multiple articulations of masculinity present in former fighters’ lives, we suggest that efforts must be made to resist methodological nationalism in understanding the relationship between gender hierarchies and armed conflict. Charting how foreign fighters traverse local constructions of gender, national gender hierarchies, and transnational social structures to participate in the conflict, we argue that adopting a conscious consideration of scale in our research method is needed to move beyond methodological nationalism.

Applying Policy Process Theories to Environmental Governance Research: Themes and New Directions

Policy scholars have effectively leveraged policy process models, theories, and frameworks to respond to a variety of important environmental questions. For example, how do environmental issues arrive on the agendas of policymakers? What factors contribute to environmental policy change? What are the designs and effects of institutions (e.g., policies or cultural norms) on environmental governance? In this review, we survey the field of policy process scholarship, focusing on environmental governance, with three objectives. The first objective is to catalog the policy process models, theories, and frameworks most often featured in studies of environmental governance. The second is to capture the methodological choices commonly employed in the application of these models, theories, and frameworks in environmental domains. The third is to identify how these approaches deal with issues central to environmental governance research, including time, space, and policy scale. We aim to identify trends and strategies for integrating key considerations of scale into empirical policy process scholarship.

Framework for Simulation-Based Simultaneous System Optimization for a Series Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicle

Hybridization of hydraulic drivetrains offers the potential of efficiency improvement for on- and off-road applications. To realize the advantages, a carefully designed system and corresponding control strategy are required, which are commonly obtained through a sequential design process.Addressing component selection and control parameterization simultaneously through simulation-based optimization allows for exploration of a large design space as well as design relations and trade-offs, and their evaluation in dynamic conditions which exist in real driving scenarios. In this paper, the optimization framework for a hydraulic hybrid vehicle is introduced, including the simulation model for a series hybrid architecture and component scaling considerations impacting the system’s performance.Anumber of optimization experiments for an on-road light-duty vehicle, focused on standard-drivecycle- performance, illustrate the impact of the problem formulation on the final design and thus the complexity of the design problem. The designs found demonstrate both the potential of energy storage in series hybrids, via an energy balance diagram, as well as some challenges. The framework presented here provides a base for systematic evaluation of design alternatives and problem formulation aspects.

Spatial, Temporal, and Phylogenetic Scales of Microbial Ecology.

Microbial communities play a major role in disease, biogeochemical cycling, agriculture, and bioremediation. However, identifying the ecological processes that govern microbial community assembly and disentangling the relative impacts of those processes has proven challenging. Here, we propose that this discord is due to microbial systems being studied at different spatial, temporal, and phylogenetic scales. We argue that different processes dominate at different scales, and that through a more explicit consideration of spatial, temporal, and phylogenetic grains and extents (the two components of scale) a more accurate, clear, and useful understanding of microbial community assembly can be developed. We demonstrate the value of applying ecological concepts of scale to microbiology, specifically examining their application to nestedness, legacy effects, and taxa-area relationships of microbial systems. These proposed considerations of scale will help resolve long-standing debates in microbial ecology regarding the processes determining the assembly of microbial communities, and provide organizing principles around which hypotheses and theories can be developed.

Disentangling the antecedents of the relationship between organisational performance and tensions: exploration and exploitation

Numerous researchers have emphasised the importance of and the advantages brought by the emergence of organisational ambidexterity. Importantly, organisations are obliged to manage the tensions and conflicts that arise from the exploration of knowledge and the exploitation of existing capabilities to find the appropriate balance between the two to yield synergistic effects. This study assesses the phenomenon of organisational ambidexterity and elucidates how exploitation and exploration can both be applied to successful management strategies. This will fill a research gap. A quantitative survey comprising a total of 234 valid samples was conducted, collecting data from Taiwanese electronics and electronic motor manufacturing firms. In this study, structural equation modelling is used to detect the relationship between variables in the model, and there are many items in the consideration of certain facet scales. The results reveal the significant correlations among exploration/exploitation, ambidexterity, organisational performance and tensions. According to the findings elicited by this study, we further propose theoretical and practical implications and future directions.

Advancing Experimentation-as-a-Service Through Urban IoT Experiments

Smart cities are becoming a vibrant application domain for a number of science fields. As such, service providers and stakeholders are beginning to integrate co-creation aspects into current implementations to shape the future smart city solutions. In this context, holistic solutions are required to test such aspects in real city-scale Internet of Things (IoT) deployments, considering the complex city ecosystems. In this paper, we discuss OrganiCity’s implementation of an experimentation-as-a-service (EaaS) framework, presenting a toolset that allows developing, deploying, and evaluating smart city solutions in a one-stop shop manner. This is the first time such an integrated toolset is offered in the context of a large-scale IoT infrastructure, which spans across multiple European cities. We discuss the design and implementation of the toolset, presenting our view on what EaaS should provide, and how it is implemented. We present initial feedback from 25 experimenter teams that have utilized this toolset in the OrganiCity project, along with a discussion on two detailed actual use cases to validate our approach. Learnings from all experiments are discussed as well as architectural considerations for platform scaling. Our feedback from experimenters indicates that EaaS is a viable and useful approach.

The association between future time perspective and sexual behaviours in individuals attending HIV testing centres.

Most European countries are still facing a high burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) cases each year. Available literature has found associations between time preference, i.e. the relative weight given by individuals to future outcomes compared to present ones, and various health behaviours such as tobacco or alcohol consumption, vaccination or participation in cancer screening programmes. Our objective is to investigate the role of future preference in risky sexual behaviours. We conducted a cross-sectional study using self-administered questionnaires in three HIV testing centres in Paris. We collected data on sexual behaviours, risk perceptions, risk attitude, future preference (Considerations of Future Consequences scale) and socioeconomic and demographic variables. Full data for variables used in regression analyses were available for 1090 respondents. We study factors associated with condom use at the first sexual encounter, with the frequency of condom use and with the number of sexual partners. In the full sample, future preference is positively correlated with both measures of condom use while it is negatively correlated with the number of sexual partners. Decomposing the analysis by risk group, our results indicate that future preference has more impact on sexual behaviours, especially condom use, among men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual men and, to a lesser extent, compared to heterosexual women. If future time perspective is confirmed as a determinant of safer sexual behaviours, prevention campaigns could be shifted towards greater information on short-term consequences of STIs.

Facility location and scale optimisation in closed-loop supply chain

This paper solves a strategic-level decision problem on determining the optimal location of (re)manufacturers and logistics centres with the consideration of facility scales in an integrated closed-loop supply chain network. A two-stage stochastic mixed-integer non-linear programming model is established to minimise the fixed cost and the expected operation costs under uncertain demand and return. We develop an improved tabu search heuristic algorithm to solve the model. We also design a distance-based decision rule to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Numerical experiments are conducted to test the performance of the proposed model and the solution method. In addition, sensitivity analysis is provided to investigate the influences of varying inspection locations and recovery rates on the final performance.

Scaling effects and front propagation in a class of reaction-diffusion equations: From classic to anomalous diffusion

A simulation study is proposed where a reaction-diffusion equation in a semi-infinite medium is numerically solved by a second-order approximate finite-difference method. The non-linearities present both in the diffusivity and in the kinetic term required a proper iterative method that proved to be satisfactory in robustness and efficiency. The dynamics of the moving front were investigated in the absence and presence of a chemical reaction. In the former case, a non-linear diffusivity led to correlations between the speed of the diffusion front and the strength of interactions between diffusing species, though preserving the classical time scaling. In the latter, a genuine non-classical trend of the travelling front was detected for long times, in agreement with the recent studies concerning anomalous diffusion. An analytical approach based on scaling considerations motivated the numerical results. This study may explain the onset of a subdiffusive trend in reaction-diffusion front dynamics observed in permeation experiments through layers of different substrates, such as catalytic beds and building materials.