Conjunctural Factors Research Articles

The impact of monetary policy normalisation on secured money markets

Rationale This article offers an empirical analysis of the main factors which explain the variations in the repo-deposit facility rate (DFR) spread in the euro area, focusing on the impact of monetary policy normalisation. The findings suggest that a notable rise in interest rate expectations was the main factor behind the widening of the spread in 2022. In 2023 the slowdown in the pace of interest rate hike expectations and the Eurosystem’s balance sheet reduction returned the spread to the levels prior to the start of the policy rate hiking cycle. Takeaways •The widening of the repo-DFR spread in 2022 arose mainly from interest rate hike expectations. •Other conjunctural factors such as monetary policy uncertainty and the demand for short-term assets also contributed to the widening of the spread. •The temporary tensions seen in this market in 2022 eased in 2023 with lower expectations of interest rate hikes.

The role of longue durée and conjunctural factors in development of the Russian aluminium sector

Le présent article examine le rôle joué par différents facteurs géologiques, historiques et politiques pour modeler l’évolution de l’industrie de l’aluminium en Russie. Il se concentre sur l’évolution de cette industrie dans la période post-soviétique, après la privatisation des entreprises publiques par un groupe d’industriels russes qui ont réussi à consolider leurs actifs en 2007, en créant UC Rusal qui contrôle pratiquement 100 % de la production d’aluminium en Russie. Le processus de consolidation de cette industrie a également été fortement influencé par les évolutions du marché en Russie et dans le monde. La chute de la demande en aluminium en Russie lors de la période post-soviétique a forcé les producteurs russes à pénétrer le marché mondial et à créer une entreprise verticalement intégrée qui contrôle toutes les étapes de la production d’aluminium. Un accès limité aux matières premières en Russie et le besoin d’importer l’alumine constituent le principal défi auquel s’est confronté le secteur. Pour opérer à la fois en Russie et sur le marché mondial, les propriétaires des actifs d’aluminium ont dû s’adapter, non seulement aux conditions mouvantes du marché avec la croissance chinoise, mais aussi à un changement du contexte politique en Russie et dans le monde.

Динамика показателей макроэкономического окружения крупных проектов (по материалам США, Европейского союза, Китая и России)

This article provides an overview of the macroeconomic situation in a number of countries: United States of America, European Union, China and Russia in the 3rd quarter of 2023. Currently important statistical data is used for the analysis, and the mainstream literature is reviewed. The authors mark the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators and describe the causes and possible consequences of the changes. The core indicators considered include GDP level, unemployment rate, inflation rate, key rate, consumer spending, government spending and others. The budget of each country is analyzed. For some indicators, the authors make forecasts of changes in indicators for future periods, taking into account various conjunctural factors. The article was written within the framework of the Crisis Management Center of the School of Public Administration, Lomonosov Moscow State University.

State embeddedness and public-private dynamics in central American coffee leaf rust management

This paper examines how differences in state's ‘embedded autonomy’ (i.e., the historical relationship between farmers and the state, public institutions, and state capacity) in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua shaped the management of the 2012 coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic, resulting in differential responses. We conducted 80 interviews with key coffee-sector actors and six focus groups representing 20 farmer organizations and 19 technical assistance providers to understand these divergent responses. We first examined the dynamic, historical, and relational contexts of contradictions, contestation, and negotiation in agri-food networks influencing each response. We then explored how the role of the state and agrarian structures in each country affected farmers' performance and access to different support systems for renovating and rehabilitating coffee plantations in response to the CLR epidemic. In El Salvador and Nicaragua, oligarchic control, weak state relationships with small coffee farmers and fragmented bureaucracies hindered effective CLR crisis response and recovery. Although farmers' organizations, NGOs, and the private sector attempt to fill the gap using market or ‘user pay’ mechanisms for CLR management, they cannot fully compensate for the state's shortcomings. In contrast, Honduras, which is closest to a ‘developmental state’ in the coffee sector, performed better. This is attributed to its more pro-smallholder development path since the 1970s, which bolstered state institutional structures and fostered social ties and dynamism within smallholder organizations in the coffee sector. However, decentralization and clientelist relations limited the country's ability to propose long-term CLR management strategies. We argue that a state's ‘embedded autonomy’ is critical in determining its approach and effectiveness in managing CLR crises and collaborating with and supporting coffee farmers. Finally, we highlight the importance of considering both conjunctural factors (such as meteorological and economic conditions) and the state's historical capacity and embeddedness in analyzing CLR outbreaks and their effects across different countries.

GARRAFÃO PROJECT: ORIGIN, HISTORY AND MAIN ASPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGEST LONG-TERM STUDY OF ECOLOGY OF SMALL MAMMALS IN BRAZIL

This article introduces the special volume dedicated to one of the longest wildlife monitoring programs ever carried out in Brazil: the long-term study on small mammals developed by the Laboratório de Vertebrados at UFRJ from 1996 to 2019 in Garrafão, Municipality of Guapimirim, RJ. The guiding ideas of this study emerged from a previous project developed at the Restinga de Barra de Maricá, RJ, in the 1980s on the ecology of small mammal populations and communities. The main research objectives were related to community structure, population growth and population dynamics, aiming to understand the ecological processes and the mechanisms explaining the fluctuation of population size in several species over time. Initially, models of genetic population structure and population dynamics were tested. Further developments in the project allowed further aspects to be studied, such as diet and nutritional aspects, population genetics, use of space, habitat, biogeography, taxonomy and systematics. These approaches, based on relevant ecological questions, have provided advances in knowledge in several areas of biology, especially in population ecology. The study resulted in dozens of articles, book chapters, dissertations and theses and was interrupted by conjuncture factors and abrupt changes in the funding policy for the development of scientific research in Brazil.

Organizational and economic principles of marketing management at specialized agricultural enterprises

The article represents the disclosure of the organizational and economic principles of management of sales activities at specialized agricultural enterprises. It is substantiated that the transformation of the production structure of agrarian enterprises makes it possible to increase the economic efficiency of the production of crop and livestock products and its competitiveness, provided that a rational combination of the primary sectoral areas of specialization at the agricultural enterprise is observed. It was determined that the correction of the organizational structure is the main direction of corporate and economic restructuring, and the organizational structure itself is one of the three structural variables. Then one cannot but admit that its optimization must come along with the optimization of the production structure, on the one hand, and the optimization of the organizational management structure, on the other hand. Therefore, the objectively possible result of corporate and economic restructuring will be ensured if the optimal organizational structure is combined with the optimal production structure. It was established that the management of the sales activities at agricultural enterprises should be carried out based on the identification of the systemic nature influencing competitive and conjunctural factors using methodical approaches to the evaluation of the effectiveness of functioning of marketing channels of promotion and commercial channels of market distribution of products, as well as the comparison of the specified assessment with the results of determining sales opportunities of enterprises. At the same time, the company tries to improve the adaptability of its marketing and sales policy to increase the efficiency of the main activity by maximizing its commercial potential. Accordingly, the ways of using the toolkit to increase the efficiency of the production and marketing activities at agricultural enterprises by changing the position of the farming enterprise in the structure of existing channels of market distribution in the target markets for the sale of plant and livestock products are determined. Keywords: specialization, production structure, sales, competitiveness, agricultural enterprises.

«REPUBLICANS» AMID THE NEW SOCIO-POLITICAL REALITY

The article examines the problems faced during the presidential and parliamentary election campaigns of 2022 by the largest party of the right camp in France – the «Republicans» party. The paper emphasizes that the «Republicans» faced the tasks of both ideological equipment and the search for a recognized leader by all. A study of the actions of the «Republicans» candidate for president V. Pekress allows us to conclude that under the influence of a combination of structural and conjunctural factors, she could not become a figure capable of mobilizing right-wing voters and going beyond her political camp. She lost the battle for the center-right and right electorate to her competitors – President E. Macron and the leader of the right-wing populists M. Le Pen. Analysis of the results of the parliamentary elections showed that although the «Republicans» halved their presence in the National Assembly, thanks to the new alignment of political forces, characterized by the absence of an absolute majority in the pro-presidential bloc, a group of «Republicans»” found themselves in parliament as an arbitrator and gained new opportunities to influence the lawmaking process, which was deprived in the previous legislature. The author comes to the conclusion that the project of the «independent right center» suffered a crushing defeat in these elections, and the «Republicans» in the course of parliamentary practice can follow the path of actually turning into the right wing of the pro-presidential coalition.

Re‑inhabiting central Athens: urban planning, housing and the claim for socio‑spatial justice

Taking as a starting point the discussion about “the return of housing” in central and deprived neighbourhoods of Athens, the article will examine how these concerns have been debated and what type of policies have been proposed or implemented at different moments. More precisely, it looks at how the issue of housing has been perceived within urban regeneration policies since the 1980s, and how the debate has evolved in relation to the Greek housing and planning system and other conjunctural factors. Despite efforts and claims to strengthen the role of the state as a guarantor of public interest and social cohesion, overall, urban regeneration interventions rarely consider the negative effects of upgrading on its less protected inhabitants and uses. Tracing the institutional memory of urban policy for the centre of Athens contributes to a better understanding of path dependencies, mainstream perceptions and unexplored potentials. The paper stresses the need to acknowledge the social function of the city centre and to reframe the issue of re‑inhabiting the city centre from the perspective of socio-spatial justice, prioritising housing affordability and social inclusion.

Turkey and Greece as frenemies: discourse-historical approach to foreign policy repertoires of the leaders

This paper analyzes Turkish-Greek relations during the contentious period of July 2019-2022, when tensions between the two countries have risen due to domestic and conjunctural factors. The study employs a Discourse Historical Approach to reveal the processes of identity construction in Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an and Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ political statements. The analysis suggests that the two leaders have developed discursive repertoires of frenemies, which represent interactive processes of logics and practices of amity and enmity between Turkey and Greece, in which they are competitive and mistrustful, but also convinced that collaboration advances their respective and often conflicting interests.

Conducta autolesiva e ideación suicida en la adolescencia: desafíos en la Educación Profesional y Tecnológica

This article aims to communicate the results of the research entitled “Pedagogy of presence applied to the prevention of suicidal ideation and self-harm in adolescence”, developed at the Federal Institute of Rondônia. The objectives of the study were to contribute to the pedagogical management of the problem of suicidal ideation and self-harming behavior in adolescents, through theoretical reflection and transfer of two educational products. The research was developed in a qualitative approach, based on the Educational Action Research methodology. The results indicate that the school is both a factor of stress and illness and it has the potential to contribute to the promotion of students' mental health, self-care and care for others. It is argued that an omnilateral training, supported by the Pedagogy of Presence is capable of favoring the understanding of the structural and conjunctural factors of our time - which favors the reduction of personal frustrations, the flexibilization of the notions of failure and success among adolescents, and the development of cognitive and socio-emotional skills, in addition to what has been stimulated by neoliberal education reforms.

Analysis of the Financial Position of an Entity on the Romanian Seaside under Normal and Pandemic Conditions

The hospitality industry, reflected in the literature under the acronym HoReCa, is an extremely volatile area of activity, often fluctuating and very sensitive to a wide range of conjunctural factors. The business entities in this sector are frequently influenced by the events occurring both at the level of their microenvironment and their macroenvironment. In this article we aim to perform the analysis of the financial position and its variations related to an entity in the hospitality industry situated on the Romanian seaside, taking into account the normal situation before the pandemic, but also the crisis generated by COVID-19.

COMMUNICATION OF POLITICIANS WITH THE AUDIENCE: TOOLS AND SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS

The process and mechanisms of communication between the politician and the audience, the role of external and conjunctural factors, their influence on the effectiveness of communication and the expediency of using certain means of interaction are studied. Factors that directly affect the quality of a political actor's contact with voters are considered, as well as those that indirectly affect the relevance of political statements. Formulated principles of evaluating the effectiveness of communication with a certain audience. Actual problems of communication between the politician and the audience in the scientific, social, public and political spheres are revealed. The problem of communication between a politician and an audience is actualized in the scientific, socio-political, public, purely political spheres. The effectiveness and expediency of using certain formats of communication between a politician and an audience against the background of various external conditions is analyzed. Attention is focused on the need for careful analysis not only of the audience as such, but also of external factors that can affect the perception of information by the voter. The study of individual formats and the specifics of their application in communication between a politician and an audience opens up opportunities for more effective and transparent interaction between political actors and civil society. This enables the creation, improvement and effective use of the most appropriate means of public communication. Recommendations are provided for preparing, editing and evaluating the effectiveness of public communication activities in the context of political activity. It is proved that there is a connection between the effectiveness of a certain means of communication and external factors. Methods of assessing the expediency of using various means of public communication are proposed and attention is focused on their specificity. A hypothesis is proposed about the significant influence of external factors on the perception of information by the audience, in particular on the political behavior of voters.

The Populist Challenge to U.S. Democracy: Renewing American Political Development's Comparative Perspective

AbstractRegarding the implications of the political developments of the last five years for the study of American political development (APD), this article argues that the unprecedented Trump phenomenon and its problematic repercussions for U.S. democracy have greatly enhanced the value of a comparative perspective, which can draw instructive lessons from the fate of attacks on liberal democracy by populist leaders in other countries. Comparativists examining the contemporary United States initially highlighted the risks of populist leadership (i.e., political agency), stressed the possibilities of democratic backsliding, and examined how popularly elected chief executives can undermine democracy from the inside—all of which fueled grave concerns. Yet for a more realistic assessment of populism's actual danger for U.S. democracy, one must analyze the probability of such a deleterious outcome. Therefore, researchers need to embed agency in contextual conditions and investigate what institutional, structural, cultural, and conjunctural factors empowered populist leaders to destroy democracy in some countries, whereas other constellations of these factors have impeded democratic backsliding in many other nations. With this move beyond a primary focus on agency, comparative analyses align with APD's longstanding attention to complex context factors. Interestingly, such a comparative perspective corroborates the distinctive institutional strengths and relative resilience of U.S. democracy.

ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ ПОКАЗНИКІВ СТРАТЕГІЧНОЇ СТІЙКОСТІ ПРОМИСЛОВОГО ПІДПРИЄМСТВА

Under the strategy of enterprise development, the article proposes to understand the general concept of how the goals of the organization are achieved, the problems facing it are solved, and the limited resources necessary for this are distributed. Strategic stability is the state of an enterprise in which its main goals are developed, its policies and events are coordinated into a single whole, it is the foundation of any enterprise, which must be strong, but at the same time flexible. The strategic stability of the enterprise consists of a number of indicators: 1) predictability; 2) management potential; 3) strategic and innovative focus; 4) information security; 5) internal consolidation and organizational unity; 6) dynamism and efficiency of management; 7) stylistic versatility. The assessment of each of the proposed indicators, their characteristics will allow to identify the main problems of the effectiveness of the management system of the development strategy and competitiveness of industrial enterprises. We will describe each of the proposed indicators. A graphic representation of the relationships between the strategic sustainability of the enterprise with the related indicators and between the indicators themselves is presented in fig. 1. It is the totality of all these indicators and their interrelationship that can ensure the strategic stability, and therefore the competitiveness of the enterprise. The strategic stability of the enterprise is influenced by a number of quite specific factors that determine the effectiveness of the functioning of any industrial enterprise. To determine the main indicators and driving forces that promote or, on the contrary, reduce the strategic stability of the enterprise, it is advisable to apply a comprehensive approach, which is expressed in the simultaneous consideration of strategic and conjunctural factors that affect the strategic stability of the enterprise in the market economy. Strategic factors affecting the strategic stability of the enterprise are expressions of the necessary conditions that must be taken into account by the business entity in order to ensure the strategic stability of its enterprise and the competitiveness of its products. The determinism of the movement of business entities is determined by the actions of strategic factors.

РЕФОРМИРОВАНИЕ ЗДРАВООХРАНЕНИЯ И ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА США

One of the reasons of social contradictions aggravation in modern USA is inequality of provision of the population with medical benefits, which actualizes the research of reforms and directions of regional policy, carried out by the state in the sphere of health care. The purpose of the research consists in revealing the tendency of formation of inequality in provision of the population of the USA with medical services, developed as a consequence of socio-economic and political processes in American society, expressed in permanent reforming of national health care and state regulation of regional problems. On the basis of the evolutional-genetic approach to the subject of research and the use of methods of statistical and economic analysis, as well as abstract-logical methods of processing of the theoretical material the results were obtained, that reflect the dynamics of the studied inequality and the factors determining it during 1951—2020 years were revealed. A number of conclusions reflecting the spatial-temporal and socio-structural nature of inequality in the provision of medical benefits to the US population, determined by the economic and political cyclism of the development of American society in the period under study, are made. The consequence of cyclicity is the inconsistency of reforming and using various types of state regional policy in the regulation of healthcare, depending on conjunctural factors.

Discursos sobre la pobreza: las voces de las mujeres

The term «feminization of poverty» was coined by Diane Pearce in 1978 when she found that it was women with children who led poor households. The central objective of this article is to show the trajectories, management, and experiences of women in poverty in Castelló de la Plana (Spain) from their own voice, applying the gender perspective. The methodology used is qualitative, the technique of interviews with a semi-structured script has been used for women of different profiles who are in a situation of poverty or at risk of being so. The results advance that, together with variables or structural factors, such as social origin or employment situation, a set of conjunctural factors or critical life events are added that, on the one hand, converge and intersect, and on the other, they lead to ending up in this situation.

State financing of companiesmetallurgical industry in conditions of volatility of world prices for non-ferrous metals

Currently, in the conditions of continuing sanctions pressure, as well as the consequences of the SARS-CoV-2019 pandemic, the metallurgical industry companies are facing acute issues of forming an effective structure of monetary capital and, in this regard, financial stability, since the provision of fixed and working capital that contribute to generating profits and increasing the value of the company as a whole will directly depend on the balance and cost of funding sources. The structure and cost of sources of financing of the monetary capital of companies in the non-ferrous metallurgy industry are directly influenced by the conjunctural factors of the industry, which determine the value of non-ferrous metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and on the Russian market. Due to the cyclical nature of economic development and the associated manifestations of crisis periods, there is a negative trend in terms of providing monetary capital with its own sources of financing against the background of the growth of borrowed capital and an unsatisfactory level of financial stability. In this regard, it seems appropriate to turn to the analysis of measures of state support for strategically important companies in the non-ferrous metallurgy industry in order to maintain domestic industry and maintain competitiveness in the Russian and world markets of non-ferrous metals. At the same time, public financing will contribute to leveling the manifestation of sectoral factors, the formation of an effective capital structure and the achievement of optimal financial stability.

Political disaffection and disengagement in Serbia

The aim of this paper is to examine the extent of political disaffection and disengagement of Serbian citizens from a comparative European perspective, as well as to explore the relationships between two phenomena and determine the effects of several potential predictors (structural inequalities, gender, generational differences, urban environment, political awareness and competences, national and European identification, and political discontent) on different aspects of political disaffection and disengagement. In order to do so, we have used European Social Survey data (9th round, 2018), and singled out four different subdimensions of political disaffection and disengagement: assessment of responsiveness of the political system (external political efficacy), institutional trust, assessment of individual interest in politics and capabilities to engage in political processes (internal political efficacy), and the level of actual political engagement (political participation). The aim of the paper is to shed light on different systemic, structural and conjunctural factors that may contribute to shaping political attitudes and patterns of actions in contemporary Serbia and pose several theoretical and research questions that need further investigation.

ЗМІНИ КОН’ЮНКТУРНИХ ЧИННИКІВ РИНКУ АВІАЦІЙНИХ ПЕРЕВЕЗЕНЬ В ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКОМУ СОЮЗІ ПІД ВПЛИВОМ ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19

The article has considered the main conjunctures’ factors of the air transportation market in the European Union. The substantiations of this market are a complex system which is formed by conjunctures’ factors. Factors justify the reasons of affect the market depending on the specific country or association of countries, segmentation of the world market and industry. The trends of annual growth (fall) of the global market of passenger and freight are analyzed of branch factors are revealed. The situation in the air transportation market, as well as a number of conjuncture factors, depend on the turbulence of external factors. In 2020, such factors were the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the dynamics of the world economy. As a whole, demonstrating the impact of non-systemic environmental factors. If the development of the global financial crisis of 2008–2010 mostly depended on the long-term growth of «bubbles» and was determined by industry affiliation, in 2020 an unsystematic crisis that was unmanageable and constantly required the construction of new algorithms to overcome it. The volume of passenger traffic and the volume of air traffic in general in the European Union were analyzed in order to establish causal links. The main reasons for the decline of the air transportation market were the global pandemic COVID-19, the effects of Brexit, inconsistencies within the SES. It is substantiated that the SES initiative is inert. This is due by the monopoly market of air transport in the European Union and the lack of an effective policy to implement the principles of the SES. The facts of significant advantages of full-fledged introduction of SES in the field of air transportation of the EU countries are given. Thus, the fact of dependence of the EU aviation services market on the global pandemic TsOVID-19, the inconsistency of technical and political issues between the EU-27 and the UK is substantiated. Prospects for the development of the global market and the regional air transportation market by increasing the level of financing, introduction of innovations, expansion of the market of services in developing countries and increasing the level of innovation in the navigation segment of aviation services are substantiated.

Supply as a factor in the destabilization of the oil market

The article deals with the fundamental and conjuncture factors of the oil market equilibrium. The purpose of the study is to identify new economic indicators that affect the global pricing model in the oil market, and determine the effectiveness of the existing cartel agreement. The structure of net energy consumption, as well as features of demand for energy resources by regions of the world, is presented in the article. The study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of the dynamics of changes in oil prices and production indicators of the largest oil producing countries in the world. The analysis highlights the factors of the oil market stabilization from the demand and supply side: production, technological and price factors. Relative indicators, such as the level of technology development and drilling efficiency in the respective segments, were found to have the greatest impact on the stability of energy prices, and long-term price stabilization is possible only if the US oil industry participates in OPEC+ agreement.