Regional Conflicts Research Articles

Departure Device Design With Dual Redundancy for the Assistant Landing Gear of Long-endurance UAV

In modern wars and regional conflicts, in order to reduce casualties, more and more unmanned equipment and weapons are utilized. Among them, the UAV is the new favorite in the sky. Application fields of the military UAV are wide and varied. It is found to be used for intelligence reconnaissance, battlefield surveillance, as well as strikes. As for the scout UAV, long endurance is of utmost importance. There is no denying that less weight can result in longer endurance. A departure device for the assistant landing gear of a long-endurance UAV is designed in this paper. The system constitution and working principles are introduced in the beginning. Then, detailed system designs are presented, including the hardware design, software design, and other parts of the departure device. Several static and dynamic experiments are conducted to prove its feasibility. At last, the conclusion part summarizes its applications.

Does Mining Escalate Human-Wildlife Conflict?: Insights from Human-Rhesus Macaque Conflict in a Coal-Mining Region in Southern India

Does Mining Escalate Human-Wildlife Conflict?: Insights from Human-Rhesus Macaque Conflict in a Coal-Mining Region in Southern India

Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept

AbstractWhilst there are several empirical studies linking water scarcity and violent conflicts, existing quantitative studies use mostly climate and environmental variables even though such variables have been shown to not be strong predictors of water conflicts by some studies. The aim of this study was to use the water footprint concept and the Falkenmark index to identify water scarcity hotspots at the sub‐national scale and to understand the links between water scarcity and violent conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin over a period of two decades (2000–2021). We achieve this by developing five water scarcity metrics at a monthly timescale using runoff, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, water consumption and demographic data. The developed metrics show high levels of water scarcity across the study area during the dry, pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons. Analyses further reveal high green water scarcity (GWS) (soil moisture deficit) and low Falkenmark index scores (water stress) during the dry, pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons, across all reported water conflict locations. This suggest that there is an indirect link between GWS, the Falkenmark index scores and water conflicts. Results from this study may be used to enhance water management, mitigate, and prevent water conflicts in the study area and likewise the methodology adopted may be used to address water scarcity and conflicts in other regions.

Specifics of Austrian military-political course after the end of the cold war

Since the end of 1980th Austria has significantly been changing the model of its military-political course and taking into consideration neutral status of the State concentrates major efforts on activity in special international organizations including their military actions. In this regard the object of research is the military-political model of Austrian Republic in postbipolar epoch. Consequently, the subject of the article is changes and crucial determinations of Alpine Republic military-political line at the end of 1980th – 2020th. To cover this object-subject area problems and ways of neutrality transformation in 1990th – beginning of 2000th are analyzed. Along with that special attention is focused on Official Vienna’s activity in special international organizations in security sphere (UN, OSCE, EU, NATO) mostly diplomatic and legislative issues in first two cases and participation in military and training missions. The historical-genetic and comparative methods which allow to notice historic backgrounds and to compare Austrian efforts in security field are used. The scientific novelty of the research implies wide set of sources in German and an attempt to unite concrete Austrian steps in integral system. Crucial conclusions are determination of motives and features of Austrian policy transformation in security field. Its first characteristic is narrowing the interpretations of the neutral status with the subsequent opportunity to use national armed forces in the settlement of armed conflicts outside Austrian borders. The second consequence is description of interaction and two-component model of the UN, OSCE, EU and NATO instruments use. The first two are applied for promotion initiatives in regional conflicts settlement and foundation of legislative base for disarmament and avoiding militarization of other spaces. The last two provide the use of military measures for stabilization of conflict regions with avoiding of direct use of bundesheer.

Global environmental impacts of food system from regional shock: Russia-Ukraine war as an example

Different responses to external interference, such as regional conflict, could have distinct sustainability outcomes. Here, we developed a novel framework to examine global food shortages from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and quantify the embodied environmental impacts of disturbed and alternative food supply chains. The conflict could soon bring a 50–120 Mt shortage of nine dominant food products and cause temporal global cropland abandonment and greenhouse gas emissions decline. By contrast, the partial agricultural recovery in the next cultivation season will raise global cropland use and greenhouse gas emissions by 9–10% and 2–4% (mainly in China and Europe). However, optimized food supply networks with prioritized agricultural expansion in higher-efficiency countries could minimize food shortages and food-mile expenses, offsetting the postwar environmental increments from agricultural recovery by 45–89%. These results validate a framework to simulate the global social-ecological system, and underline the resistance opportunities and tele-connected consequences of regional disturbance.

“Kosovo precedent” or “Kosovo deadlock”?

The article provides a thorough analysis of the “Kosovo” international regional confl ict. Based on UN documentary materials, the author analyzes the historical origins of the Kosovo crisis, compares the positions of the parties in its settlement and traces the dynamics of development and prospects for resolving the Kosovo confl ict. This, according to the author, allows us to reveal the essence and identify the consequences of the so-called “Kosovo precedent” in international legal practice from a historical point of view. The author reveals the nature and character of the protracted “Kosovo” confl ict, which carries within itself the distinctive features and characteristics of both international and domestic political types. The author fi nds out the reasons why the Kosovo confl ict periodically escalates. The author proves why the temporary localization of the Kosovo confl ict did not contribute to its fi nal settlement, even with the participation of the United Nations. As a result, Kosovo is still a partially recognized state entity, but the method and consequences of resolving the “Kosovo” crisis have become a precedent for resolving other crisis situations in the world. But has the correct way out of the deadlock been found?

Building bridges to peace: a quantitative evaluation of power-sharing agreements

Abstract Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study, we match pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-in-difference method. The results show that violence falls immediately after an agreement, with the effects strengthening over time. Comprehensive agreements tend to be particularly successful. We show that broader institutional changes that have their nucleus in the agreements are crucial elements explaining these large changes.

Research on Gold Price Changes and Factors Under the Background of Fed Interest Rate Hike

With the change of international form, the gold market is changing rapidly. In 2021, the U.S. stagflation was serious, so in 2022, the Federal Reserve adopted a series of interest rate hikes, coupled with the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As a safe haven product, the price of gold fluctuated greatly in the short term. As an important commodity, gold is crucial to judge its price change trend. This paper mainly analyzes the U.S. monetary policy from 2022 to 2023. By studying the reasons and background of the promulgation of monetary policy, it judges the causes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, and judges the background of joint inflation and regional conflict according to the international form in 2022. Combined with the change trend of gold price, it makes a joint analysis, and gets the impact trend of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase on gold price from 2022 to 2023. Finally, it comes to the conclusion that the increase of interest rate will lead to the decline of gold price. In the early stage of interest rate increase and a large number of interest rate increases, the gold price is more affected by the increase of interest rate, so it is suitable to short gold at this time, while in the late stage of interest rate increase and the slowdown of interest rate increase policy, the gold price is more affected by other factors, so it is suitable to long gold at this time.

Whether rural rooftop photovoltaics can effectively fight the power consumption conflicts at the regional scale – A case study of Jiangsu Province

To fight the power consumption conflicts at the regional scale, rooftop solar photovoltaics (RTSPV) in rural areas is considered as a critical way. In this study, we constructed a sophisticated framework for evaluating the regional RTSPV power generation potential of rural areas. Focusing on Jiangsu Province, the rural RTSPV power generation potential was evaluated. Then, the generation potential was compared with electricity demand to describe the spatial heterogeneity of the supply and demand situation, and proposed the pathways to alleviate the regional consumption conflicts. The results showed that the total RTSPV power generation potential of rural areas in Jiangsu Province is 202.91 TWh, which can meet the electricity demand of rural areas in this province. From the perspective of supply and demand, the conflicts between rural RTSPV power generation and electricity demand will be aggravated, especially in areas of rapid economic development. The rural RTSPV power generation of Suzhou, Wuxi, and Changzhou is far low the actual demand for electricity. While for the city with significant disparities between urban and rural areas, the development of rural RTSPV can effectively alleviate the power consumption conflicts. In particular, the rural RTSPV power generation in Xuzhou can meet the demand of total electricity.

Evolution of Brazil’s Strategic Behavior Towards Smaller MERCOSUR Countries in the XXI Century

In foreign policy documents and public statements by senior Brazilian officials, the development of the Southern common market (MERCOSUR) is mentioned as a foreign policy priority, but the dynamics of integrational processes in it are far from being positive due to the economic asymmetry of the countries represented — major players — Brazil and Argentina and smaller economies — Uruguay and Paraguay. The authors of the article considers a foreign policy strategy of large countries in relation to smaller ones in the association as the reason for the diffi culties in eliminating the economic asymmetry in MERCOSUR. The purpose of this article is to analyze Brazil’s strategic behavior towards Uruguay and Paraguay. The article proves that the slowdown in the pace of deepening integration in MERCOSUR is directly proportional to the decrease of the importance of Uruguay and Paraguay in Brazil’s foreign policy strategy. The author of the article focuses on the evolution of Brazil’s strategic behavior towards Uruguay and Paraguay: it underwent a transformation from a policy of pressure in the 1990s to Brazil’s mediation in regional confl icts in the 2000s. In the late 2000s, as President Lula da Silva’s plans to deepen political integration in MERCOSUR showed their ineff ectiveness due to the country’s mounting asymmetries with Uruguay and Paraguay, integration into MERCOSUR gradually began to play a secondary role in Brazil’s foreign policy strategy. During the presidencies of Rousseff and Temer, this trend only intensified, reaching its peak after President Bolsonaro came to power. The fi rst part of the article presents theoretical aspects of Brazil’s strategic behavior in relation to small member countries of the association. The second part of the article will analyze specific examples of changes in Brazil’s foreign policy strategy towards Uruguay and Paraguay. Finally, the conclusion outlines the full evolution of Brazil’s strategy towards the small MERCOSUR countries from the 1990s to 2022, and will also focus on the current situation in the association.

Fit Islands: Designing a Multifunctional Virtual Urban Community to Promote Healthy Aging for Chinese Older Adults

Within the context of an aging global population, the demographic structure of emerging economies is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Emerging economies have a large population base and rapid economic development, but they are ill-prepared to deal with population aging. Limited resources force many older adults to face health issues such as chronic diseases and loss of physical independence, exacerbating the burden of traditional family and societal elderly care. Uncontrollable events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and regional conflicts have exacerbated the plight of older adults. Improving the quality of life and health of older adults has become a development priority in emerging economies in the face of a rapidly aging population. The development of smart cities has brought with it many available digital technologies, and the consequent development of smart aging offers endless possibilities for improving the quality of life and health of older people, making cities more inclusive of older people. Researchers from developed economies have attempted to address the health issues of older adults through a technology that combines physical exercise and digital technology called Exergame. However, existing projects are not suitable for older adults in emerging economies due to differences in national conditions. The aim of this project is therefore to propose a universal approach to designing a health-promoting Exergame system in the format of a virtual urban community to help emerging economies cope with aging populations, making cities more inclusive. To verify the feasibility of this approach, the authors designed an expandable Exergame called “Fit Islands”, using China as a case study. Based on the initial demonstration, the authors conducted functional tests. The result is that Fit Islands can meet the development objective of motivating Chinese older people to increase their physical activity, providing initial evidence of the feasibility of an Exergame system to promote healthy aging in emerging economies. The application of Fit Islands demonstrates the feasibility of the universal Exergame development method, which can, in principle, provide comprehensive and practical guidance for other countries.

The ethnocratic shikun: housing discourse in support of nation-building

ABSTRACT This research critically analyses the Israeli housing block (‘shikun’) discourse, as presented in cultural representations during 1948–1961, and its contribution to the evolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The study argues that the discursive exclusion of the shikun from Israel's socio-political history of planning and development is a central part of Israel's ethnocracy and has an essential role in exacerbating the conflict. It maintains that the shikun's exclusion is a reduction of its consequences, namely the Mizrahi population's dispersion through the shikun, which stands as one of the main foundations of the Israeli ethnocratic regime. Subsequently, I identify the shikun anew as the ‘ethnocratic shikun’, and suggest that it can be a better conceptualisation to reveal how ethnic oppression, by discursive and architectural means, affects national land regimes, and thereby exacerbating regional violent conflicts. This research has two main goals. First, achieving a better understanding of Israeli society and politics by delving into a crucial component of human existence – housing, and analysing its ‘disappearance’ from public debates regarding the Middle-Eastern geopolitics. Second, the research aspires to make a methodological contribution that goes beyond Israeli housing discourse, by adding another novel layer to the Cultural Approach to Critical Discourse Analysis.

Reconciliation as an Essential Ingredient in Peace Building: A Case Study of Crude Oil-Related Conflicts

Reconciliation is a vital component of conflict resolution. This is true because, dispute settlement without genuine reconciliation will only result in compromise without necessarily uniting the aggrieved and the aggressor. This study has explored the extent of oil related conflict and effectiveness of reconciliation initiatives in Ilaje and Ese-Odo Local Government areas in Ondo State. Both online and physical approach was used to gather data from a total sample of 150 participants drawn across the study areas and descriptive research approach was adopted. Five research questions were raised and answered. Descriptive analysis reveals the following: factors contributing to oil related conflict in region include unequal distribution of royalties, government and company policies as well as competition for oil related resources. Oil related conflict is an occasional incident in Ilaje and Ese-Odo Local Government Areas of Ondo State. There have been reconciliation efforts (64% agreement) in Ilaje and Ese Odo aiming to address oil related conflict. The effectiveness of the reconciliation attempts was judged moderate pointing to the fact that they are still unresolved grievances among the affected parties. The major setbacks found to effective reconciliation initiatives include greed, cultural differences, distrust, political interferences and sentiment. The study recommends, among others, that oil companies, government agencies fulfil should fully implement all the promises/agreements reached with the oil producing region and that the royalties should not only end in the pockets of selected few.

The global terrorist threat forecast in 2024

The article focuses on the recent Israel-Hamas conflict and its implications for global stability and security. The article highlights how the threat is likely to evolve from a regional conflict in Middle East into a global conflict. The US, British and European support for Israel and increasing civilian death toll have sparked off endless debate. The world leaders should develop a far-reaching approach to countering the terrorist threats and protecting civilian rights. In addition, the article highlights the paramount importance of cybersecurity in responding to threats.

Enhancing supply chain resilience: A machine learning approach for predicting product availability dates under disruption

The COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing political and regional conflicts have a highly detrimental impact on the global supply chain and cause significant delays in logistics operations and international shipments. One of the most pressing concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the availability dates of products, which is critical information for companies to generate effective logistics and shipment plans. Therefore, accurately predicting availability dates plays a pivotal role in executing successful logistics operations, ultimately minimizing total transportation and inventory costs. We investigate the prediction of product availability dates for General Electric (GE) Gas Power’s inbound shipments for gas and steam turbine service and manufacturing operations, utilizing both numerical and categorical features. We evaluate several regression models, including Simple Regression, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression, Elastic Net, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network models. Based on real-world data, our experiments demonstrate that the tree-based algorithms (i.e., RF and GBM) provide the best generalization error and outperforms all other regression models tested. We anticipate that our prediction models will assist companies in managing supply chain disruptions and reducing supply chain risks on a broader scale.

Predicting Day-Ahead Electricity Market Prices through the Integration of Macroeconomic Factors and Machine Learning Techniques

Several events in the last years changed to some extent the common understanding of the electricity day-ahead market (DAM). The shape of the electricity price curve has been altered as some factors that underpinned the electricity price forecast (EPF) lost their importance and new influential factors emerged. In this paper, we aim to showcase the changes in EPF, understand the effects of uncertainties and propose a forecasting method using machine learning (ML) algorithms to cope with random events such as COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Black Sea region. By adjusting the training period according to the standard deviation that reflects the price volatility, feature engineering and by using two regressors for weighing the results, significant improvements in the performance of the EPF are achieved. One of the contributions of the proposed method consists in adjusting the training period considering the price variation. Thus, we introduce a rule-based approach given an empirical observation that for days with a higher growth in prices the training interval should be shortened, capturing the sharp variations of prices. The results of several cutting-edge ML algorithms represent the input for a predictive meta-model to obtain the best forecasting solution. The input dataset spans from Jan. 2019 to Aug. 2022, testing the proposed EPF method for both stable and more tumultuous intervals and proving its robustness. This analysis provides decision makers with an understanding of the price trends and suggests measures to combat spikes. Numerical findings indicate that on average mean absolute error (MAE) improved by 48% and root mean squared error (RMSE) improved by 44% compared to the baseline model (without feature engineering/adjusting training). When the output of the ML algorithms is weighted using the proposed meta-model, MAE further improved by 2.3% in 2020 and 5.14% in 2022. Less errors are recorded in stable years like 2019 and 2020 (MAE = 6.71, RMSE = 14.67) compared to 2021 and 2022 (MAE = 9.45, RMSE = 20.64).

Farming to Fighting: How Shifting Agricultural Incomes Only Impact the Most Powerful Rebel Group

ABSTRACT Recent research into the relationship between agricultural income and conflict has revealed sub-national geographic variation in the relationship. But many governments fighting rebellion are involved in more than one conflict simultaneously. This paper engages in a sub-national analysis of Colombia, utilising data on coffee income and violence across two individual rebel groups, to argue that the relationship between shifts in agricultural income and conflict holds only for the strongest group in a conflict region. This is explained by considerations of opportunity cost, a proposition tested in an analysis of competing mechanisms. Results show strong support for the propositions.

Indonesia's Potential to Build Nuclear Energy in Geopolitical Perspective

The use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict has become a major focus in today's geopolitical world. With growing tensions between major powers and ongoing regional conflicts, the debate over the use of nuclear weapons is increasingly heated. In the midst of this global context, Indonesia, as an active member of ASEAN which consistently promotes peace and stability in the region, is faced with major challenges related to the use of nuclear weapons in international conflicts. In this context, the research in this journal aims to examine Indonesia's policies in dealing with the use of weapons. nuclear power in a growing international conflict. This research uses the theories of Situational Leadership and Transformational Leadership to understand Indonesia's potential in developing nuclear weapons. The approach used is qualitative involving in-depth interviews, document analysis, and participant observation. A phenomenological approach is used to understand subjective interpretations from the experts' point of view. The Hierarchical Process Analysis (AHP) data processing method is used to analyze data and support decision making. and it was concluded that Indonesia had no interest or intention to develop or produce nuclear weapons. Political factors, international law, and commitment to world peace provide a strong basis for this country in rejecting the option of developing nuclear weapons.

The analysis of classical, polynomial regression and cubic spline mathematical models in hemp biodiesel optimization: an experimental comparison

Post-pandemic inflationist pressures, climate changes and extremes, regional conflicts, and soaring food prices caused the food crisis to increase rapidly worldwide. This global problem directs producers and researchers to use oils used as feedstock in biodiesel production effectively. In this context, it is important to assay the transesterification parameters and conduct new optimization studies to increase biodiesel yield. In this study, methyl ester was produced from hemp oil by transesterification using sodium hydroxide (NaOH). Next, classical optimization study was carried out to determine the effects of catalyst amount, alcohol:oil molar ratio, reaction temperature, and reaction time variables on biodiesel yield. Secondly, the cubic spline mathematical model (CSMM) and polynomial regression mathematical model (PRMM) were applied to the first data of this optimization. Among these optimization methods, the utmost biodiesel yield registered was 96.115% at hemp seed oil (HSO):methanol molar ratio of 5.59:1, catalyst concentration of 0.531 wt%, reaction temperature of 42.5 °C, reaction time of 62.1 min, and agitation intensity of 600 rpm at PRMM. Some vital fuel properties obtained from HSO biodiesels as a result of three optimizations satisfied the EN 14214 standard. The results illustrated that the optimal yields from CSMM and PRMM are 0.765% and 1.065% higher, respectively, according to the maximum efficiency obtained from the classical optimization. The outcomes showed that CSMM and PRMM are cost-effective, easy to handle, and promising new approaches.

تأثير القوى العالمية والإقليمية على القضية الكردية

The Kurdish issue has been a long-standing conflict in the Middle East, with the Kurdish people seeking autonomy and self-determination in their ancestral lands. This research explores the impact of global and regional powers on the development of the Kurdish issue. The research employs a qualitative approach to examine these powers' historical, political, and diplomatic involvement in the Kurdish issue. The study's findings reveal that the United States, as a global superpower, has played a significant role in supporting the Kurdish cause through military and diplomatic means. On the other hand, Israel has had a more covert involvement, providing the Kurdish people with military training and intelligence support. Moreover, the Scandinavian countries have played a crucial role in facilitating peace negotiations and providing humanitarian aid to the Kurdish people; on the other hand, both Turkey and Iran have opposed the establishment of an independent Kurdish state, fearing that it could lead to the disintegration of their own countries and encourage their Kurdish populations to seek autonomy. The study concludes that global and regional powers have considerably impacted the Kurdish issue's development, both positively and negatively. While their involvement has helped the Kurdish cause, it has also fueled regional tensions and conflicts. Overall, this research provides a comprehensive analysis of the role of Global and regional powers in the Kurdish issue and highlights the need for continued diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and promote stability in the Middle East.