Abstract

ABSTRACT Recent research into the relationship between agricultural income and conflict has revealed sub-national geographic variation in the relationship. But many governments fighting rebellion are involved in more than one conflict simultaneously. This paper engages in a sub-national analysis of Colombia, utilising data on coffee income and violence across two individual rebel groups, to argue that the relationship between shifts in agricultural income and conflict holds only for the strongest group in a conflict region. This is explained by considerations of opportunity cost, a proposition tested in an analysis of competing mechanisms. Results show strong support for the propositions.

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