Conflict Propensity Research Articles

Understanding Conflict Dynamics in Spanish Parliament: MPs’ Personality Traits and Attitudes Toward Conflict

This study addresses the gap in research on individual-level factors contributing to parliamentary conflict by developing a measure of members of parliaments’ (MPs) conflict attitudes and examining the role of personality traits. Utilizing a comprehensive framework and validated measures, we aim to provide insights into the factors influencing MPs’ propensity for conflict and resistance to consensus. Our findings reveal that personality traits related to Agreeableness and Machiavellianism are significant predictors of conflict attitudes. These results deepen our understanding of the micro-foundations of parliamentary conflict and inform strategies for promoting cooperation and constructive political behavior in legislatures.

When personalism matters: Nuclear latency and conflict propensity

While some scholars conclude that there is a positive relationship between the possession of nuclear latency and the initiation of international conflict, others conclude that there is no relationship between them. As such, these findings are in need of reconciliation, but there have been almost no scholarly efforts to do so. In this article, I argue and find that latent nuclear states with personalist authoritarian regimes are more likely to initiate international conflict than those with other types of regimes (i.e. both democratic regimes and nonpersonalist authoritarian regimes). My finding indicates that not only personalist regimes drive the positive relationship between nuclear latency and conflict initiation, but also inconclusive findings in previous studies stem from an oversight of the variation in the level of personalism across latent states.

АГРЕССИВНОСТЬ И КОНФЛИКТНОСТЬ КАК ЛИЧНОСТНЫЕ ЧЕРТЫ ГЕЙМЕРОВ

This article presents a study of the propensity for aggressive behavior in people who play and do not play video games. The study involved 184video game-playing respondents and 88 non-video game-playing respondents, totaling 272 people. The characteristics of personality traits of people with different video game experiences and genre preferences were studied. It was hypothesized that video game-playing individuals would have a higher propensity for aggression and conflict than non-video game-playing respondents, and that video gameplaying respondents would show a higher level of propensity for aggression and conflict as the amount of time spent playing video games increases, as well as in relationship to the aggressive and competitive video game genres they choose. The results suggest that people who play video games do not differ significantly from people who do not play video games on measures of aggression and conflict, regardless of time spent playing video games and genre preferences. It was also revealed that women without children are more prone to negative aggression than women with children.

Boys and Their Toys: Status Inconsistency in Non-democratic Regimes and the Import of Major Weapon Systems

Major weapon system imports are significant as they are useful for domestic and international security. However, states regularly imported weapons they want in addition to weapons they need. One explanation is that states import unnecessary weapons to gain status. We argue that states suffering from higher levels of negative status inconsistency (SI) import a greater proportion of status symbol weapons. To account for differing security motives, we also separate non-democratic regime types – strongman, junta, boss, and machine – as they vary in their international conflict propensity and domestic stability. Due to the differences across these regimes, we further argue that non-democratic personalist regimes will import more status symbol weapons. Using data covering 1965–1999, we find that negatively status inconsistent regimes import more status symbol weapons.

Interactive Leader Psychology and the Ebb and Flow of Interstate Rivalry

AbstractA great deal of scholarship links leaders’ psychological traits to their monadic tendency to use force abroad, but virtually no work considers how the interaction of leadership psychology influences the systematic likelihood of dyadic interstate conflict. We develop and test several competing explanations of how the interactive conceptual complexity of leaders—a psychological trait that consistently predicts monadic conflict propensity—might affect the ebb and flow of conflict within rivalries. Our time-series analyses of the US–Soviet Cold War rivalry, utilizing the leadership trait analysis coding scheme, demonstrate that, in accordance with the monadic logic, increases in the interactive conceptual simplicity between US presidents and Soviet premiers predict a significantly higher incidence of militarized interstate dispute initiation and a greater volume of conflictual dyadic (COPDAB, conflict and peace data bank) behavior. At the same time, however, the least conflict-prone pairing is one in which a conceptually complex leader interacts with a conceptually simplistic counterpart. This suggests that the presence of even one complex leader can increase empathy and diminish the aggressive misperception and retaliatory “downward spirals” that haunt rivalries.

Exploring factors influencing domestic violence: a comprehensive study on intrafamily dynamics.

This econometric analysis investigates the nexus between household factors and domestic violence. By considering diverse variables encompassing mood, depression, health consciousness, social media engagement, household chores, density, and religious affiliation, the study aims to comprehend the underlying dynamics influencing domestic violence. Employing econometric techniques, this study examined a range of household-related variables for their potential associations with levels of violence within households. Data on mood, depression, health consciousness, social media usage, household chores, density, and religious affiliation were collected and subjected to rigorous statistical analysis. The findings of this study unveil notable relationships between the aforementioned variables and levels of violence within households. Positive mood emerges as a mitigating factor, displaying a negative correlation with violence. Conversely, depression positively correlates with violence, indicating an elevated propensity for conflict. Increased health consciousness is linked with diminished violence, while engagement with social media demonstrates a moderating influence. Reduction in the time allocated to household chores corresponds with lower violence levels. Household density, however, exhibits a positive association with violence. The effects of religious affiliation on violence manifest diversely, contingent upon household position and gender. The outcomes of this research offer critical insights for policymakers and practitioners working on formulating strategies for preventing and intervening in instances of domestic violence. The findings emphasize the importance of considering various household factors when designing effective interventions. Strategies to bolster positive mood, alleviate depression, encourage health consciousness, and regulate social media use could potentially contribute to reducing domestic violence. Additionally, the nuanced role of religious affiliation underscores the need for tailored approaches based on household dynamics, positioning, and gender.

Interstate Resource Conflicts: A Network-Centric Resource Access Security Perspective

This paper introduces the theoretical concept of perceived resource access security in order to assess the link between natural resource scarcity and interstate conflict. It develops the hypothesis that resource access through international trade is an important determinant for conflict behaviour of states arising from resource concerns, implying a shift in focus away from endowments and towards competition for access. The main analysis is conducted in the form of a unit fixed effects logistic regression covering country-dyads of the period 1962–2010 with military interstate dispute (MID) initiation as dependent variable. The empirical findings consistently demonstrate that a diversified position in resource supply networks mitigates the conflict propensity of states characterized by outside dependence for access to natural resources, and thereby help to determine conditions under which trade reduces conflict.

The Imperial Ambitions of the Great Powers: Explaining the War in Ukraine from the Perspective of Global Justice

The position of Russian President Vladimir Putin in starting the war in Ukraine proceeds from political realism or the imperial ambition of global powers. The propensity for conflict governs the global political order. President Putin thinks that the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an existential threat as far as Russia is concerned. In the absence of a universal standard of justice in the world, Russia thinks that it was justifiable to invade Ukraine. NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has argued that the right thing to do is to prevent Russia from imposing its will on a sovereign country. But while the West is trying to find a way to help Ukraine on moral and political grounds, it can be argued that the US and some of its Allies are a complicit to the absence of justice in the world. The reason is that the conflict in Ukraine also reveals the hypocrisy of the US when it comes to its own wars, for instance, in Iraq and Afghanistan. I argue from the perspective of global justice. I believe that the moral position is for President Putin to acknowledge his mistake but at the same time, the moral endgame should not appear as if the West has won this proxy war but for the world to finally realize the primacy of the respect for human rights and the dignity of peoples over all forms of hegemonic power.

Revolutionary Ideals and International Aggression

AbstractThis article assesses the international conflict propensity of leaders that come to power through revolutions. I argue that when revolutions result in the overthrow of governments perceived as enabling the interference of outside powers in internal affairs, the leaders that assume office afterward are especially inclined to provoke international conflict. I code these revolutions as “external” and juxtapose them against “internal” revolutions motivated by domestic grievances rather than animus against foreign meddling. Regression analysis and survival analysis suggest that leaders assuming office following external revolutions are more prone to conflict than leaders that assume office through internal revolutions. To illustrate the relationship between external revolution and international aggression, the paper utilizes a case study to examine Iranian foreign policy under Ayatollah Khomeini.

A Random Item Response Model of External Territorial Threat, 1816–2010

Abstract Multiple scholars have shown that external territorial threat, conceptually the level of concern for a state that its territorial integrity is subject to violent conflict and imposed contraction by other states, has major implications for the state's domestic political environment. However, the strand of scholarship that agrees on the domestic political effects of external territorial threat disagrees on how to code this important concept. These works either rely on binary indicators that do a poor job communicating “increasing” or “decreasing” territorial threat or use dyad-year indicators of conflict propensities as a stand-in for a state-year-level observation. I use this research note to offer an empirical measurement of state-year external territorial threat from a Bayesian random item response model for all states from 1816 to 2010. I assess the face validity and construct validity of the data these models generate, all of which suggest the measure does well to capture the concept in question. I close with a statement of the availability of the data and their potential applications.

Konstantin Krylov’s Ethical Theory and What It Reveals about the Propensity for Conflict between Russia and the West

Konstantin Krylov’s Ethical Theory and What It Reveals about the Propensity for Conflict between Russia and the West

Wars of Choice: Leaders, Rebellion Legacy, and Domestic Unrest

Abstract Existing studies suggest that leaders that have earlier been participants in rebellions have a higher propensity for international conflict than leaders with no such experience. This paper examines whether prior involvement in rebellions will induce leaders to initiate international conflicts during domestic strife. I propose a preference modification approach and argue that rebel leaders’ policy choices during domestic unrest are a product of their pre-existing preferences and contextual factors. Specifically, I claim that the greater preference for conflict abroad during domestic unrest that former rebel leaders display than do their fellow leaders is contingent on the severity level of domestic problems. When facing serious internal unrest, rebel leaders are less likely than their non-rebel counterparts to engage in international conflicts due to the effect that critical domestic strife will have on the former’s perceptions and thus their policy preferences. Intense domestic strife predisposes rebel leaders to engage in both international conflict and domestic measures, which to some extent neutralises their original policy preference of international conflict as the sole policy response. By contrast, non-rebel leaders perceive more efficacy in international conflict during severe domestic unrest and are more likely to initiate an international dispute in that case. Statistical analyses of the international militarised dispute initiations of leaders under domestic strife from 1875 to 2000 reveal strong support for these arguments.

Tough Enough: How Domestic Pressure to Use Force Affects Leaders Differently

AbstractExisting literature assesses how prior military training affects the likelihood that leaders use military force in office. One gap in this literature is whether a leader's domestic environment also shapes individual propensity for use of force. I focus on militarism as a domestic factor that triggers variation in the conflict tendencies of leaders and operationalize militarism with a novel metric that compares military to welfare spending. The results show that militarism has an equal effect on the conflict propensity of leaders with civilian and military backgrounds. However, comparing military leaders with combat experience to those without combat experience, the results show that militarism produces the strongest effect on the conflict propensity of military-no-combat leaders, particularly in dictatorships. I posit that this outcome results from the pressure that these leaders confront to demonstrate toughness. I refer to the pressure to perform toughness as the “demonstration dynamic” and use this concept to explain the dramatic shift in Libyan foreign policy from King Idris to Muammar Qaddafi.

Generals in the Cabinet: Military Participation in Government and International Conflict Initiation

Abstract How does the presence of military officers in national government affect a state's likelihood of international conflict? We know a great deal about how overall regime type affects international conflict, but there is substantial variation within regime types in the participation of military officers in the government. We know little about how this variation affects a state's conflict propensity. In this Research Note, I examine three competing arguments for the effect of military participation in government on conflict initiation: Military Aggression, Military Conservatism, and Civil–Military Competition. Military Aggression suggests that military involvement in government will tend to guide the state toward conflict, given a military predisposition to favor the use of force. In contrast, Military Conservatism argues that military officers in government will lead the state to less conflict, given their personal familiarity with its costs. Civil–Military Competition holds that when military officers and civilians share political power, a variety of pathologies in national security deliberation and decision-making emerge, increasing conflict propensity. I test these three propositions cross-nationally using data on the number and type of positions held by military officers in cabinets and state councils and international conflict and find the strongest support for Civil–Military Competition.

Votes and violence: Electoral vote share and international conflict in democratic states

This article argues that the effect of a democratic leader’s electoral margin of victory on their conflict behaviour once in office is highly dependent upon the state’s institutional structure. I show that, uniquely in parliamentary democracies, governments that win a larger share of the vote are significantly less likely to initiate disputes abroad. Such governments entail broad coalitions that, combined with the ever-present possibility of governmental collapse and new elections, require leaders to pursue a more cautious, lowest-common-denominator foreign policy. This effect is significantly stronger for right-wing governments. Conversely, in presidential democracies, I find that electoral vote share has no effect on a leader’s subsequent conflict propensity. Vote shares thus function very differently in parliamentary and presidential systems, with important implications for conflict behaviour abroad.

INTERPLAY BETWEEN SUBSTANCE USE AND HEALTH: BEHAVIOURAL DYNAMICS AMONG FEMALE ADOLESCENTS IN BUTTERWORTH, SOUTH AFRICA

Using an exploratory and descriptive design, as well as interviews and focus group discussions with female adolescents, their parents, former users of substances, social workers, probation officers, community leaders, teachers and police (SAPS), the paper explores the interplay between substance use by female adolescents and their behaviour. Findings revealed that substances use among female adolescents motivated sexual behaviour, sexual engagement was driven by financial goals, there was an increased risk of contracting STIs, excessive consumption of alcohol was normalised, and increased propensity for conflict became evident. The paper recommends that the government and NGOs work together synergistically in order to address substance use among adolescent females.

PETE Faculty Preferences and Responsibilities for Research, Teaching, and Service in the United States

Purpose: Grounded in occupational socialization theory, the purpose of this investigation was to examine U.S. physical education teacher education faculty members’ work role preferences, how their actual work role responsibilities compare to institutional expectations, and differences in these preferences and responsibilities based on gender and institution type (i.e., bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral institutions). Methods: Participants included 323 physical education teacher education faculty members (188 females and 135 males) from 230 institutions of higher education who completed an online survey. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a series of 3 × 2 (Institution Type × Gender) factorial analysis of variances. Results: There was relative alignment between what faculty members are expected to do, what they prefer to do, and how they actually spend their time. There are, however, some important differences based on gender and institutional classification. Discussion/Conclusion: Results are discussed within the framework of occupational socialization theory and with reference to faculty role expectations and the propensity for role conflict.

Local Order, Policing, and Bribes

ABSTRACTDay-to-day policing represents a fundamental interface between citizens and states. Yet even in the most capable states, local policing varies enormously from one community to the next. The authors seek to understand this variation and in doing so make three contributions: First, they conceptualize communities and individuals as networks more or less capable of demanding high-quality policing. Second, they present original survey data and semistructured interviews on local policing from over one hundred sixty slums, eight thousand households, and one hundred seventy informal neighborhood leaders in India that contribute to the nascent empirical work on comparative policing and order. Third, they find evidence that well-connected individuals and densely connected neighborhoods express greater confidence in and satisfaction with local policing. Critically, these differences do not appear to be a function of a lower propensity for local conflict but rather of an increased capacity to leverage neighborhood leaders to mediate relations with the police. The combination of analytics and empirics in this article provides insight into the conditions under which individuals and communities experience the police as expropriators of rents or neutral providers of order.

The Effect of Civil Society Organizations and Democratization Aid on Civil War Onset

A growing literature identifies both situations where aid promotes peace and those where aid encourages violence. Specifically, research shows lower probability of conflict onset in democratizing states receiving high levels of democracy assistance. However, theorizing has overlooked important actors who have agency in spending such aid: civil society organizations (CSOs). We posit that the status of civil society within recipient states conditions the effect of democracy aid inflows on conflict probability. Using an instrumental variables approach to account for endogeneity between aid allocation and conflict propensity, we find that democracy aid is destabilizing when directed to environments where CSOs are weak and poorly connected to the regime and thus are less willing and able to seek change through peaceful means. When civil society is stronger and more institutionalized, however, larger democracy aid flows pose less threat.

Farming on the edge: Farmer training to mitigate human-wildlife conflict at an agricultural frontier in south Sri Lanka

Efforts to increase food production across Asia have relied on the intensification of established farms, as well as the expansion of farming activities into previously wild areas. Farms at agricultural frontiers face distinct challenges from those in historically farmed regions and require distinct support structures. We interviewed 324 rice farmers at seven sites in southern Sri Lanka to determine challenges to rice production in the region and the propensity for human wildlife conflict. Farmers (80%) reported wildlife including peafowl (Pavo cristatus) and other birds, as well as free-ranging (semi-)domestic animals such as buffalo (Bubalus bubalis), as their principal biotic constraints across sites, with relatively few farmers regarding weeds, insect pests, or diseases as a constraint (mentioned by 25% of farmers in total). Farmers near wilderness areas reported elephants (Elephas maximus) and wild boar (Sus scrofa) as major constraints to rice production. 64% of farmers had received training from government and other support agencies during the five years prior to our survey. Training mainly addressed insect pests and diseases and focused on lethal product-based solutions (88% of training). Farmers did not receive support or advice to mitigate crop foraging and human-wildlife conflict; instead, farmers relied heavily on repellence (human activated) responses, such as early warning systems and active scaring. We suggest that Agriculture, Development and Wildlife authorities might increase intergovernmental cooperation and coordination of farmer training to better manage crop foraging in our study region. We present a review of possible non-lethal, farm-based methods that could be promoted during training programs for farmers facing challenges from wildlife in such a biologically diverse region. Currently, a wide range of low-cost avoidance, barrier and deterrence systems (that are not monitored or activated by humans) are available. These can be used to avoid harmful repellence practices.