Interactive Leader Psychology and the Ebb and Flow of Interstate Rivalry

Abstract

Abstract A great deal of scholarship links leaders’ psychological traits to their monadic tendency to use force abroad, but virtually no work considers how the interaction of leadership psychology influences the systematic likelihood of dyadic interstate conflict. We develop and test several competing explanations of how the interactive conceptual complexity of leaders—a psychological trait that consistently predicts monadic conflict propensity—might affect the ebb and flow of conflict within rivalries. Our time-series analyses of the US–Soviet Cold War rivalry, utilizing the leadership trait analysis coding scheme, demonstrate that, in accordance with the monadic logic, increases in the interactive conceptual simplicity between US presidents and Soviet premiers predict a significantly higher incidence of militarized interstate dispute initiation and a greater volume of conflictual dyadic (COPDAB, conflict and peace data bank) behavior. At the same time, however, the least conflict-prone pairing is one in which a conceptually complex leader interacts with a conceptually simplistic counterpart. This suggests that the presence of even one complex leader can increase empathy and diminish the aggressive misperception and retaliatory “downward spirals” that haunt rivalries.