Onset Of Conflict Research Articles

The 2022 Ukraine Crisis: What It Means for Sino-Russian Relations

The onset of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in February 2022, commonly referred to as the 2022 Ukraine crisis, has had a notable impact on the dynamics of Sino-Russian relations. In light of Russia encountering a severe reaction from the global community, it is anticipated that China will assume a mitigating role, owing to their amicable bilateral ties throughout the preceding decade. This study investigates the potential for increased assertiveness in China�s response to the invasion and the resulting implications for their ties. It examines the ramifications of the crisis on Sino-Russian relations, considering the elements that contribute to either the change or continuity of these interactions. It does so by referencing a short historical account of the relations and power dynamics among the relevant actors, employing a realist perspective. The analysis of this study reveals that China has departed from its initially neutral position during the crisis, indicating its capacity to assume the responsibilities associated with becoming a major global power. Nevertheless, their bilateral relations may be advantageous to China with time, primarily due to Russia�s increasing economic reliance and China�s potential for enhancing its global standing.

Beyond fallacies: violent conflicts globally and in muslim countries

This article explores the relationship between key economic development indicators and the occurrence of violent civil conflicts. It examines public policy failures and mistakes which link with onset of conflicts. Two sets of 160 countries are included to empirically analyse the determinants of conflicts. This analysis extends to two distinctive subsets of Muslim countries. The paper establishes that the classification procedure of violent conflicts matters—varying classifications offer dissimilar values to similar predictors. Here, our conclusions are contrary to the much emphasized ‘greed motivation’ to rebel, which dismisses strong linkages of ‘grievances’ like low income, economic development failures and political repression with intrastate violent conflicts. The paper also infers limitations in country level data—which cross-country studies employ—income and unemployment data are non-reflective of conflict regions and of horizontal inequalities. We stress region and country specific research.

Unethical practices and the role of traditional ruler-ship institutions in modern conflict resolution in Tivland, Nigeria

ABSTRACT In the past decade, there has been a surge in deadly internal conflicts in Nigeria. The state’s failure to decisively address violent skirmishes through its modern conflict-resolution mechanisms has resuscitated the debate on the role of traditional rulers in conflict resolution. Although the relevance of traditional institutions in conflict contexts has been well acknowledged in many studies, their complicity in the onset and preponderance of conflict remains understudied. Using a mixed qualitative research design, this paper interrogates the nexus between unethical practices of traditional rulers and conflict in Tivland, north central Nigeria. It hypothesises that in the examined case study, the quest for personal aggrandizement unwittingly heightened corrupt behaviour among traditional rulers, leading to conflict emergence and protraction. To curb the impunity that currently undergirds conflict in Tivland, we recommend that traditional rulers found culpable in conflicts should be dethroned and prosecuted as deterrent to others. Also, traditional leadership selection processes should be merit-based, as opposed to the current practice of offering stools to cronies of state authorities.

The Impact of the Short Span between COVID-19 Recovery and the Onset of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Financial Performance of FTSE 350 Service Firms

The Impact of the Short Span between COVID-19 Recovery and the Onset of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Financial Performance of FTSE 350 Service Firms

Unholy alignment and boomerang civil conflicts: Examining how conflicts beget conflicts through external states support for rebels

ABSTRACT This paper focuses on external state support for rebel movements by developing an analytical tool to explain how external support for rebels leads to civil conflict onset and intensification in the target state and how conflict reverses to the sponsoring state, engendering conflict diffusion and continuation. I present a two-fold argument that a cooperative relationship between external states and rebels triggers the remote causes of civil conflict, translating latent grievances into manifest conflict in the target state. Further, the resulting conflict has a boomerang effect. It has the potential to reverse to the sponsoring state. I do this by using a case studies method – cooperative relationships of governments of Sudan and Chad with each other’s rebels vis-à-vis Sudan Civil War (2000–2005) and Chad Civil War (2005–2010) – to provide a detailed explanation of the framework and its hypotheses. The explanations I offer here may help us understand some African conflict dynamics for us to take some recent developments, for example, in the Great Lakes, more seriously.

New Energy Vehicles under the Volatility of International Energy Prices: Evidence from Regional Conflict

Russia and Ukraine engaged in a military battle on February 24, 2022. Russia's military actions are viewed as an act of aggression toward Ukraine by the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and other nations. The global energy crisis brought on by the onset of conflict and international sanctions is unavoidably having an influence on the new energy vehicle industry because Russia is the most significant producer and exporter of oil in the world. This article will use the counterfactual framework built by ARIMA model to study and analyze the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the new energy vehicle industry. In conclusion, in short term, the cost effect dominates, and in long term, substitution effect dominates. This paper innovatively uses an index to examine the relationship between the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the new energy vehicle industry. And it provides reference advice for government policy-making and investor portfolio selection. Government should vigorously develop the new energy industry, while investors should consider increasing the proportion of investment in new energy vehicles.

Leader similarity and international conflict

Scholars increasingly emphasize personal biographical characteristics of leaders in explaining patterns of foreign policy behavior. This article extends insights from this agenda to study how (dis)similarities in the background characteristics of leaders at the dyadic level shape international conflict outcomes. Trust and uncertainty are central to explaining conflict via their connections to commitment- and information-related causes of war. Psychological research provides evidence that perceived similarities between individuals and groups can foment trust and cooperation. We hypothesize that leaders who share more similar backgrounds and life experiences form stronger social bonds and are more trusting of one another. As such, leaders who have more in common with one another should be able to better manage diplomatic disputes and avoid conflict. We test this hypothesis using a new measure of dyadic-leader-level similarity created with the Leader Experience and Attribute Descriptions (LEAD) dataset and data on international conflict onset in politically relevant dyads throughout the period 1946–2004. We find that pairs of leaders with more similar backgrounds are significantly less likely to experience militarized interstate disputes at all levels of hostility even after accounting for a variety of observable and unobservable determinants of conflict. The findings contribute to our understanding of the determinants of international conflict and help advance research on linkages between psychological and rationalist approaches to studying conflict.

How difficult is it to interpret subjective well-being questions during crises? Evidence from the onset of conflict in Yemen

Abstract Subjective well-being (SWB) measures, such as satisfaction with income, are increasingly being used to measure changes in well-being in response to policy changes and shocks. However, large policy changes or shocks themselves might cause individuals to change how they answer SWB questions in ways that have little to do with changes in objective well-being measures. For example, respondent-specific scales that individuals use to respond to SWB questions (e.g. threshold of income required to be satisfied) might change at the same time that income is changing following a shock. We illustrate the importance of this concern following the onset of conflict in Yemen, where households reported a large improvement in SWB across a range of different dimensions despite large declines in nearly all traditional and objective measures of well-being.

Climate, Women, and Conflict: Rebel Groups’ Armed Activities after Major Disasters

Abstract This study builds long-anticipated bridges between the literature on (i) climate/disaster security, (ii) women, peace, and security, and (iii) rebel group behavior. Specifically, I analyze how rebel groups react to disasters (like droughts, earthquakes, floods, or storms) by intensifying or reducing their armed activities. This addresses a crucial knowledge gap: While a large literature is dealing with the impacts of climate change and disasters on armed conflict onset or incidence, knowledge on how environmental factors shape the behavior of particular conflict actors remains scarce. I argue that rebel groups escalate fighting when disaster-related opportunities occur (e.g., easier recruitment) but scale back their armed activities if adversely affected by the disasters (e.g., loss of resources). However, this relationship is contingent of the rebels’ inclusion of female combatants. Empirically, this study draws on a unique sample of thirty-six cases of disasters striking armed conflict zones and integrates quantitative and qualitative data via a qualitative comparative analysis. The results suggest that rebel groups intensify their armed activities to exploit disaster-related opportunities but can only do so when female combatants provide them with sufficient capabilities. Conversely, rebels have to reduce fighting when adversely affected by disasters unless they can draw on female members to cope with disaster impacts.

Fish to fight: Does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia?

To what extent do marine-based economic activities influence the onset of violent conflict? Despite ongoing debate over several decades around the relationship between natural resources and violent conflict, little of the relevant research has addressed the marine environment. Based on satellite data in Indonesia, this paper exploited geographical variations in ocean productivity to provide new evidence on the relationship between fisheries and violent conflict. Using a search-by-radius approach, we compiled a sample of 757 cells to represent spatial interactions and spillovers between land-based conflicts and catch landings on the sea. We found that both industrial and non-industrial catches exhibit a statistically significant positive influence on the occurrence of conflict events. Additionally, increased illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) catches are more likely than legal catches to cause violent conflict. An increase in fish catches in Indonesian waters fuels conflict of every kind, among which protests and riots are most sensitive to fisheries while fighting and terrorism are least sensitive. Overall, these empirical findings support the hypothesis that increased competition for common-pool resources contributes to the onset of violent conflict.

Transitions between peace and systemic war as bifurcations in a signed network dynamical system

AbstractWe investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation and conflict dynamics in the context of international relations between states. The model evolves ties between nodes under the influence of a structural balance force and a dyad-specific force. Model simulations exhibit a sharp bifurcation from peace to systemic war as structural balance pressures increase, a bistable regime in which both peace and war stable equilibria exist, and a hysteretic reverse bifurcation from war to peace. We show how the analytical expression we derive for the peace-to-war bifurcation condition implies that polarized network structure increases susceptibility to systemic war. We develop a framework for identifying patterns of relationship perturbations that are most destabilizing and apply it to the network of European great powers before World War I. We also show that the model exhibits critical slowing down, in which perturbations to the peace equilibrium take longer to decay as the system draws closer to the bifurcation. We discuss how our results relate to international relations theories on the causes and catalysts of systemic war.

Rebel group formation in Africa: Evidence from a new dataset

Theories of internal armed conflict onset often conceptualize an eruption emerging from pre-existing, non-violent opposition movements or organizations. This paper argues that this is not the most common pathway to armed conflict in Africa. It introduces new data on rebel group formation in 47 African states (1997–2015) that offers a more complete picture than existing conflict datasets; about two-thirds of the groups in the new dataset are not named in standard conflict datasets. The strong majority of these rebel groups formed in rural areas; did not emerge from nearby protest movements or civil society organizations; and initially did not benefit from substantial material resources nor commit large-scale violence. Analyses suggest that rebel groups forming in rural parts of African states draw less often on pre-war, public, non-violent contestation than those of urban areas. The paper highlights the need for more theory on the varied pathways to internal armed conflict, and the importance of – and challenges of collecting – systematic evidence on armed group formation.

Behavioral and Electrocortical Response to a Sensorimotor Conflict in Individuals with Fibromyalgia.

People with fibromyalgia have been shown to experience more somatosensory disturbances than pain-free controls during sensorimotor conflicts (i.e., incongruence between visual and somatosensory feedback). Sensorimotor conflicts are known to disturb the integration of sensory information. This study aimed to assess the cerebral response and motor performance during a sensorimotor conflict in people with fibromyalgia. Twenty participants with fibromyalgia and twenty-three pain-free controls performed a drawing task including visual feedback that was either congruent with actual movement (and thus with somatosensory information) or incongruent with actual movement (i.e., conflict). Motor performance was measured according to tracing error, and electrocortical activity was recorded using electroencephalography. Motor performance was degraded during conflict for all participants but did not differ between groups. Time-frequency analysis showed that the conflict was associated with an increase in theta power (4-8 Hz) at conflict onset over the left posterior parietal cortex in participants with fibromyalgia but not in controls. This increase in theta suggests a stronger detection of conflict in participants with fibromyalgia, which was not accompanied by differences in motor performance in comparison to controls. This points to dissociation in individuals with fibromyalgia between an altered perception of action and a seemingly unaltered control of action.

The Challenger’s Winning Coalition: Mobilization of Religion in Ethnic Civil War

When is shared religion mobilized in ethnic civil war? Most civil wars are fought between distinct ethnic groups, but in the last half century mobilization of religion is increasingly common, mostly in conflicts between ethnic groups that share religion. While the literature explains the role of religion in conflict onset—especially between groups segmented by religion—the reason why religion becomes an organizing principle in an ongoing violent conflict between ethnic groups that share a religion is understudied. We argue that in response to competition for followers in civil war, ethnic minority leaders sharing religion with majorities are increasingly likely to mobilize the religious identity through an oversized challenger’s winning coalition as the demographic balance of the ethnic groups evens out. We test this conjecture using the new A-Religion data on the religion, religious overlap, and relative sizes of all ethnic groups in civil wars from 1975 to 2015.

O107 Surgical workforce in conflict: qualitative perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract Introduction There is a paucity of data regarding the experiences of the local surgical workforce present during conflicts. Whilst we know that surgical trauma burden increases during conflict, little is known about workforce adaptation to new injury modalities, higher caseloads, and additional system pressures. Qualitative research is an effective methodology for elucidating surgical systems in such settings. Methods Medically qualified personnel performing surgery during a conflict, who had worked in this setting before the onset or escalation of conflict, were identified through a pre-interview questionnaire distributed through the Royal College of Surgeons of England and other targeted networks. A structured guide was used to conduct in-depth interviews and a thematic analysis was undertaken. Results Surgical practitioners (male:female 19:2), of different seniority and representing 9 subspecialties, from 9 Middle Eastern and North African countries were interviewed. There were notable differences in the experiences of practitioners within new conflict settings (Libya, Syria, Egypt and Sudan) compared to those with previous conflict experience, where medical education and training were more likely to be uninterrupted. This necessitated training during active situations, which many practitioners regarded as very fruitful. Junior trainees in new conflict areas often had to ‘act up’ under intense pressure, often without adequate supervision whilst practitioners in previous conflict settings have normalized conflicts and developed cultural coping mechanisms. Conclusion This study contributes to the evidence gap on the surgical workforce in conflict settings and highlights the need for innovative and swift support for entire surgical ecosystems to maximize impact.

Порушення сну та якість життя здобувачів медичної освіти під час воєнного стану

Actuality. Military conflicts in general have a negative impact on the mental health of the population. It has been established that approximately every fifth person in post-conflict situations suffers from severe mental disorders. Anxiety and depression have the greatest impact on the psyche of the population, which has been determined since the first days of the war. Long-term persistence of anxiety and depression can lead to the appearance of other mental disorders, which, due to psychosomatic relationships, will cause sleep disturbances and the decreasing mental health component of quality of life. It was previously established that 17.1% of internally displaced persons had severe sleep disorders (10.6% severe and 6.5% very severe), and among Ukrainian refugees, 15.2% had pronounced sleep disorders (10.8% severe and 4.4% very severe). A similar situation was observed among combatants. The purpose of the work was to study the characteristics of sleep disorders during the war in Ukraine in students of higher medical education, as well as their impact on the mental health component of quality of life. Materials and methods: a four-fold one-moment cross-sectional epidemiological study using an online questionnaire on the Google Forms platform, which was shared through the educational portals of the Dnipro State Medical University. One hundred ninety-three medical students took part in the study. Data were collected 1, 3, 10 and 12 months after the start of martial law. Respondents had a median age of 20 (20;21) years, and almost three-quarters (74.6%) were women. Among those interviewed, 63.2% (61.8% of women and 67.3% of men) were not directly in the combat zone. Results. Disturbances in the feeling of rest after sleep, disturbances in falling asleep, and disturbances in the depth of sleep were detected. The expression of these violations was comparable after 1 month and after 1 year, and more pronounced in comparison with the period of 3 or 10 months. The mental health component of the quality of life was most decreased in the first month of the war with a gradual tendency towards a normal distribution of the indicator after a year due to the increase of persons who did not notice it or the violations were extremely insignificant. In the multiple logistic regression model, it was determined that when sleep depth violations are combined with being in dangerous conditions, their impact on the mental component of the quality of mental life is estimated by the following odds ratios: for sleep depth 4.09 (95% CI 1.82 – 9.17), for being in danger – 1.99 (95% CI 1.15 – 3.55). The AUC of the model was 0.66 (95% CI 0.59 – 0.73), which indicates its average predictive ability. Conclusions: It should be noted that the findings presented herein are preliminary and subject to limitations when applied to the general population. Our research indicates that students in higher medical education experienced notable sleep disturbances and mental health challenges both one month and one year following the onset of conflict in Ukraine. Our analysis identified disruptions in sleep patterns and exposure to hazardous conditions as the most significant risk factors for poor mental health outcomes.

Clinical impact and misdiagnosis of functional ophthalmological symptoms: a case report

Introduction The disease burden due to non-specific, functional, and somatoform disorders is high. An unknown part of these medically unexplained symptoms belongs to factitious disorders. When it comes to deciding whether a patient is able to work, it is essential to differentiate a somatoform disorder from a factitious disorder.ObjectivesThe aim is to highlight, on the one hand, the differences between somatoform disorder and factitious disorder and, on the other hand, the potential impact of misdiagnosis in medical expertise regarding eligibility for a disability income.MethodsA case report of Ms A. a 42-year-old Caucasian woman. She worked as a 100% fiduciary accountant until the age of 32 when she was placed on medical leave due to persistent trigeminal neuralgia. Subsequently, she developed total blindness, accompanied by distress in a crucial emotional context. A diagnosis of factitious disorder was retained by an expert psychiatrist, with severe consequences for her, such as disability income suspension and family conflict. We evaluated Ms. A. in our multidisciplinary medical expertise service for a disability income review.ResultsThe patient reported a total absence of light perception in both eyes (subjective), not confirmed by objective ocular examination and spécific neuro-ophthalmological examination.Psychiatric examination revealed that Ms. A. had been sexually assaulted at age of 7 and sexually abused for a year by her teacher at age of 14. Regarding the identity of the first abuser, she describes that she “can’t see his face” and that the multiple sexual assaults during her teenage years took place in the classroom after school, with the teacher “pulling down the window shades so it was totally dark.” She explains that, defensively, to avoid thoughts related to the traumatic experience, she was heavily invested in her studies. But, at the age of 30, after separation with her first boyfriend, diffuse pain and progressively total blindness appeared.We concluded the diagnoses of pain disorders related to psychological factors and a dissociative neurological symptom disorder with visual disturbance.Conclusions Blindness not explained by a physiologic process may accompany trauma and psychological distress, with the search for the link between the onset of symptoms and significant unconscious psychic conflicts being crucial in the psychiatric investigation. A new diagnosis of dissociative neurological symptom disorder with visual disturbance (6B60.0) is included in the ICD-11. It is characterized by visual symptoms such as blindness, tunnel vision, diplopia, visual distortions, or hallucinations that are not consistent with a recognized disease of the nervous system, other mental, behavioral, or neurodevelopmental disorders. Differentiating this pathology from factitious disorder or simulation is essential from an insurance medicine point of view, but also for its treatment.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Global Politico-Economic Dynamics during a Local Conflict: Reciprocal Patterns of Cooperation and Sanctions

Abstract Employing global daily news coverage on interactions between stakeholders in G20 countries, this research offers a near-real-time analysis of changing interaction patterns between Russia and other G20 economies after the onset of open military conflict. Building on an event study over eight months, further analyses of reciprocal response dynamics point to potentially costly short-term consequences of sanctions, such as the breakdown and diversion of international cooperation amongst major economies in a broader sense. Once such a reciprocal cooperation decay has set in, re-establishing international cooperation between major societal actors may take considerable time.

Onset of Work-Life Conflict Increases Risk of Subsequent Psychological Distress in the Norwegian Working Population.

We aimed to assess whether the onset of work-life conflict is associated with a risk of subsequent onset of psychological distress. Respondents from a randomly drawn cohort of the general Norwegian working population were interviewed in 2009 (T1), 2013 (T2), and 2016 (T3) (gross sample n = 13,803). Participants reporting frequent work-life conflict at T1 and/or psychological distress (five-item Hopkins Symptom Checklist mean score ≥ 2) at T2 were excluded to establish a design that allowed us to study the effect of the onset of work-life conflict at T2 on psychological distress at T3. Logistic regression analysis showed that the onset of frequent work-life conflict more than doubled the risk of the onset of psychological distress at T3 (OR = 2.55; 95% CI 1.44–4.51). The analysis of the association between occasional work-life conflict and psychological distress was not conclusive (OR = 1.21; 95% CI 0.77–1.90). No differential effects of sex were observed (log likelihood ratio = 483.7, p = 0.92). The calculated population attributable risk (PAR) suggests that 12.3% (95% CI 2.84–22.9%) of psychological distress onset could be attributed to frequent work-life conflict. In conclusion, our results suggest that the onset of frequent work-life conflict has a direct effect on the future risk of developing symptoms of psychological distress in both male and female workers.

Not Too Distant: Grievance, Opportunity, and the Onset of Civil War

ABSTRACT Grievance and opportunity theories dominate research on the causes of civil war. However, theoretical and empirical problems limit their ability to explain variation in conflict onset. We argue that these problems partly stem from treating them as largely independent explanations. We integrate grievance and opportunity into a unified theory and argue that they are complements that jointly predict conflict. We apply insights from the interstate war literature to develop and test a theory of conflict onset that argues that the probability of civil war increases as the disparity between relative power and the status quo distribution of benefits increases.