New Energy Vehicles under the Volatility of International Energy Prices: Evidence from Regional Conflict

Abstract

Russia and Ukraine engaged in a military battle on February 24, 2022. Russia's military actions are viewed as an act of aggression toward Ukraine by the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and other nations. The global energy crisis brought on by the onset of conflict and international sanctions is unavoidably having an influence on the new energy vehicle industry because Russia is the most significant producer and exporter of oil in the world. This article will use the counterfactual framework built by ARIMA model to study and analyze the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the new energy vehicle industry. In conclusion, in short term, the cost effect dominates, and in long term, substitution effect dominates. This paper innovatively uses an index to examine the relationship between the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the new energy vehicle industry. And it provides reference advice for government policy-making and investor portfolio selection. Government should vigorously develop the new energy industry, while investors should consider increasing the proportion of investment in new energy vehicles.