Regional Conflicts Research Articles

The ethnocratic shikun: housing discourse in support of nation-building

ABSTRACT This research critically analyses the Israeli housing block (‘shikun’) discourse, as presented in cultural representations during 1948–1961, and its contribution to the evolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The study argues that the discursive exclusion of the shikun from Israel's socio-political history of planning and development is a central part of Israel's ethnocracy and has an essential role in exacerbating the conflict. It maintains that the shikun's exclusion is a reduction of its consequences, namely the Mizrahi population's dispersion through the shikun, which stands as one of the main foundations of the Israeli ethnocratic regime. Subsequently, I identify the shikun anew as the ‘ethnocratic shikun’, and suggest that it can be a better conceptualisation to reveal how ethnic oppression, by discursive and architectural means, affects national land regimes, and thereby exacerbating regional violent conflicts. This research has two main goals. First, achieving a better understanding of Israeli society and politics by delving into a crucial component of human existence – housing, and analysing its ‘disappearance’ from public debates regarding the Middle-Eastern geopolitics. Second, the research aspires to make a methodological contribution that goes beyond Israeli housing discourse, by adding another novel layer to the Cultural Approach to Critical Discourse Analysis.

Reconciliation as an Essential Ingredient in Peace Building: A Case Study of Crude Oil-Related Conflicts

Reconciliation is a vital component of conflict resolution. This is true because, dispute settlement without genuine reconciliation will only result in compromise without necessarily uniting the aggrieved and the aggressor. This study has explored the extent of oil related conflict and effectiveness of reconciliation initiatives in Ilaje and Ese-Odo Local Government areas in Ondo State. Both online and physical approach was used to gather data from a total sample of 150 participants drawn across the study areas and descriptive research approach was adopted. Five research questions were raised and answered. Descriptive analysis reveals the following: factors contributing to oil related conflict in region include unequal distribution of royalties, government and company policies as well as competition for oil related resources. Oil related conflict is an occasional incident in Ilaje and Ese-Odo Local Government Areas of Ondo State. There have been reconciliation efforts (64% agreement) in Ilaje and Ese Odo aiming to address oil related conflict. The effectiveness of the reconciliation attempts was judged moderate pointing to the fact that they are still unresolved grievances among the affected parties. The major setbacks found to effective reconciliation initiatives include greed, cultural differences, distrust, political interferences and sentiment. The study recommends, among others, that oil companies, government agencies fulfil should fully implement all the promises/agreements reached with the oil producing region and that the royalties should not only end in the pockets of selected few.

The global terrorist threat forecast in 2024

The article focuses on the recent Israel-Hamas conflict and its implications for global stability and security. The article highlights how the threat is likely to evolve from a regional conflict in Middle East into a global conflict. The US, British and European support for Israel and increasing civilian death toll have sparked off endless debate. The world leaders should develop a far-reaching approach to countering the terrorist threats and protecting civilian rights. In addition, the article highlights the paramount importance of cybersecurity in responding to threats.

Enhancing supply chain resilience: A machine learning approach for predicting product availability dates under disruption

The COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing political and regional conflicts have a highly detrimental impact on the global supply chain and cause significant delays in logistics operations and international shipments. One of the most pressing concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the availability dates of products, which is critical information for companies to generate effective logistics and shipment plans. Therefore, accurately predicting availability dates plays a pivotal role in executing successful logistics operations, ultimately minimizing total transportation and inventory costs. We investigate the prediction of product availability dates for General Electric (GE) Gas Power’s inbound shipments for gas and steam turbine service and manufacturing operations, utilizing both numerical and categorical features. We evaluate several regression models, including Simple Regression, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression, Elastic Net, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network models. Based on real-world data, our experiments demonstrate that the tree-based algorithms (i.e., RF and GBM) provide the best generalization error and outperforms all other regression models tested. We anticipate that our prediction models will assist companies in managing supply chain disruptions and reducing supply chain risks on a broader scale.

Predicting Day-Ahead Electricity Market Prices through the Integration of Macroeconomic Factors and Machine Learning Techniques

Several events in the last years changed to some extent the common understanding of the electricity day-ahead market (DAM). The shape of the electricity price curve has been altered as some factors that underpinned the electricity price forecast (EPF) lost their importance and new influential factors emerged. In this paper, we aim to showcase the changes in EPF, understand the effects of uncertainties and propose a forecasting method using machine learning (ML) algorithms to cope with random events such as COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Black Sea region. By adjusting the training period according to the standard deviation that reflects the price volatility, feature engineering and by using two regressors for weighing the results, significant improvements in the performance of the EPF are achieved. One of the contributions of the proposed method consists in adjusting the training period considering the price variation. Thus, we introduce a rule-based approach given an empirical observation that for days with a higher growth in prices the training interval should be shortened, capturing the sharp variations of prices. The results of several cutting-edge ML algorithms represent the input for a predictive meta-model to obtain the best forecasting solution. The input dataset spans from Jan. 2019 to Aug. 2022, testing the proposed EPF method for both stable and more tumultuous intervals and proving its robustness. This analysis provides decision makers with an understanding of the price trends and suggests measures to combat spikes. Numerical findings indicate that on average mean absolute error (MAE) improved by 48% and root mean squared error (RMSE) improved by 44% compared to the baseline model (without feature engineering/adjusting training). When the output of the ML algorithms is weighted using the proposed meta-model, MAE further improved by 2.3% in 2020 and 5.14% in 2022. Less errors are recorded in stable years like 2019 and 2020 (MAE = 6.71, RMSE = 14.67) compared to 2021 and 2022 (MAE = 9.45, RMSE = 20.64).

Farming to Fighting: How Shifting Agricultural Incomes Only Impact the Most Powerful Rebel Group

ABSTRACT Recent research into the relationship between agricultural income and conflict has revealed sub-national geographic variation in the relationship. But many governments fighting rebellion are involved in more than one conflict simultaneously. This paper engages in a sub-national analysis of Colombia, utilising data on coffee income and violence across two individual rebel groups, to argue that the relationship between shifts in agricultural income and conflict holds only for the strongest group in a conflict region. This is explained by considerations of opportunity cost, a proposition tested in an analysis of competing mechanisms. Results show strong support for the propositions.

Indonesia's Potential to Build Nuclear Energy in Geopolitical Perspective

The use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict has become a major focus in today's geopolitical world. With growing tensions between major powers and ongoing regional conflicts, the debate over the use of nuclear weapons is increasingly heated. In the midst of this global context, Indonesia, as an active member of ASEAN which consistently promotes peace and stability in the region, is faced with major challenges related to the use of nuclear weapons in international conflicts. In this context, the research in this journal aims to examine Indonesia's policies in dealing with the use of weapons. nuclear power in a growing international conflict. This research uses the theories of Situational Leadership and Transformational Leadership to understand Indonesia's potential in developing nuclear weapons. The approach used is qualitative involving in-depth interviews, document analysis, and participant observation. A phenomenological approach is used to understand subjective interpretations from the experts' point of view. The Hierarchical Process Analysis (AHP) data processing method is used to analyze data and support decision making. and it was concluded that Indonesia had no interest or intention to develop or produce nuclear weapons. Political factors, international law, and commitment to world peace provide a strong basis for this country in rejecting the option of developing nuclear weapons.

The analysis of classical, polynomial regression and cubic spline mathematical models in hemp biodiesel optimization: an experimental comparison

Post-pandemic inflationist pressures, climate changes and extremes, regional conflicts, and soaring food prices caused the food crisis to increase rapidly worldwide. This global problem directs producers and researchers to use oils used as feedstock in biodiesel production effectively. In this context, it is important to assay the transesterification parameters and conduct new optimization studies to increase biodiesel yield. In this study, methyl ester was produced from hemp oil by transesterification using sodium hydroxide (NaOH). Next, classical optimization study was carried out to determine the effects of catalyst amount, alcohol:oil molar ratio, reaction temperature, and reaction time variables on biodiesel yield. Secondly, the cubic spline mathematical model (CSMM) and polynomial regression mathematical model (PRMM) were applied to the first data of this optimization. Among these optimization methods, the utmost biodiesel yield registered was 96.115% at hemp seed oil (HSO):methanol molar ratio of 5.59:1, catalyst concentration of 0.531 wt%, reaction temperature of 42.5 °C, reaction time of 62.1 min, and agitation intensity of 600 rpm at PRMM. Some vital fuel properties obtained from HSO biodiesels as a result of three optimizations satisfied the EN 14214 standard. The results illustrated that the optimal yields from CSMM and PRMM are 0.765% and 1.065% higher, respectively, according to the maximum efficiency obtained from the classical optimization. The outcomes showed that CSMM and PRMM are cost-effective, easy to handle, and promising new approaches.

تأثير القوى العالمية والإقليمية على القضية الكردية

The Kurdish issue has been a long-standing conflict in the Middle East, with the Kurdish people seeking autonomy and self-determination in their ancestral lands. This research explores the impact of global and regional powers on the development of the Kurdish issue. The research employs a qualitative approach to examine these powers' historical, political, and diplomatic involvement in the Kurdish issue. The study's findings reveal that the United States, as a global superpower, has played a significant role in supporting the Kurdish cause through military and diplomatic means. On the other hand, Israel has had a more covert involvement, providing the Kurdish people with military training and intelligence support. Moreover, the Scandinavian countries have played a crucial role in facilitating peace negotiations and providing humanitarian aid to the Kurdish people; on the other hand, both Turkey and Iran have opposed the establishment of an independent Kurdish state, fearing that it could lead to the disintegration of their own countries and encourage their Kurdish populations to seek autonomy. The study concludes that global and regional powers have considerably impacted the Kurdish issue's development, both positively and negatively. While their involvement has helped the Kurdish cause, it has also fueled regional tensions and conflicts. Overall, this research provides a comprehensive analysis of the role of Global and regional powers in the Kurdish issue and highlights the need for continued diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and promote stability in the Middle East.

Welcoming the Future Safavid Sovereign: The Significance of Rustam Mirza’s Exodus to the Mughal Empire (1593)

The objective of this article is to find out to what extent a Safavid prince could threaten the stability of the Safavid imperial crown. To this end, the article analyses the case of Rustam Mirza (1565–1642) who belonged to a secondary branch of the imperial dynasty and who ruled autonomously over a Central Asian territory. Due to regional and imperial conflicts, the Safavid prince had to go into exile in the Mughal Empire from where he continued to impact the internal stability and the borders of the Safavid Empire. The article analyses various aspects of Rustam Mirza’s journey abroad and we will see what interest the Mughals might have had in welcoming him; what Rustam Mirza represented for the imperial Safavid centre; who was involved in the negotiations; how this welcoming process was interpreted; what benefits the prince received; and what influence his stay abroad had on the domestic and foreign policy of the sending and receiving states.

Artificial intelligence and arms races in the Middle East: the evolution of technology and its implications for regional and international security

ABSTRACT Artificial Intelligence is now deeply connected to weapons systems. It therefore plays a critical role in matters concerning international peace and security. AI has also seen military competition take on a new dynamic. However, few studies have addressed the distinct dynamics of AI and its effects on Middle Eastern arms races. Given that these issues have the potential to fuel regional conflicts and jeopardise international security, it is contended that it is crucial to investigate their impact in both the medium and long-term. This article argues that the Middle East has had several arms races in past, which need to be understood to learn the lessons about what might happen in the future. It is also important to understand how a variety of international actors have negatively affected peace and stability in the region with their arms sales. The research argues that at present, there is a lack of understanding about the implications of AI and its economic, legal, security, and political consequences. The article makes a variety of recommendations on the implications of AI, including that states in the region should be coordinating, planning, and developing policy with respect to AI and arms matters.

The Role of Abamura/Morans in Cross-Border Conflicts among the Maasai and the Kuria of Kenya, 1920-1963

It is a historical fact that most Kenyan communities are haunted by actual or potential ethnic conflicts. Kenya comprises of many ethnic communities that are religiously shaped by their cherished cultures. These are the cultures which influenced the peoples’ behavior and conduct. It is therefore true that most Kenyan communities were directly or indirectly affected by inter-ethnic community crisis. Inter-ethnic conflicts that were so prevalent among the Kenyan communities concerned cultural issues though culture was not uniform in all communities. This study analyzes the contribution of culture in the frequent conflicts between the Maasai and Kuria communities from 1920 to 1963. Conflict theory was employed to examine the conflicts and was reinforced by structural functionalism theory in the analysis. The assumption in this study was that culture was specifically a contributory factor in regional conflicts and therefore needed a local examination. The study relied on secondary and primary data such as those from the existing written sources and from the affected peoples of Kuria and Trans-Mara region. Purposive sampling was used to reach out to the informants. The research was guided by the specific research questions and objectives which included establishing the influence of rites of passage, Moranism/Abamura and religious beliefs on cross-border conflict between the Maasaiand Kuria from 1920 to 1963. This research was confined to cultural issues between 1920 – 1963. Scarce data, hostile respondents, vast land, sparse population and poor means of transport were some of the limitations encountered. The targeted groups of people for interview included the District Commissioners, head teachers of primary and secondary schools, church leaders, chiefs, clan elders, Border Peace Committee members, traditional healers, Morans/Abamura, Agricultural officers and ordinary residents. This research is descriptive and was based at Kegonga Division of Kuria and Masurura Division of Trans-Mara. Data collected was analyzed and the validity of the research examined together with its reliability. The backgrounds of the Kuria and Maasai were also studied to examine the progressive development of cross-border conflict between them since 1920 to 1963 and how culture had been a hindrance to positive adoption of modern lifestyle. Data collected from the field of study was analyzed, discussed, presented and interpreted within the set objectives of the study. The study also examined the aspects of the cultures of both the Maasai and Kuria which were seen to perpetuate cross-border conflict. Such cultural aspects include circumcision, marriage, Moranism/Abamura and traditional religion. Lastly, the summary of the findings, recommendations, suggestions for further research and contribution to literature are presented. The findings of the study revealed that the rites of passage, Moranism/Abamura and religious beliefs contributed to cross-border conflicts between the Maasai and Kuria.

The Effect of Ukraine-Russia War on the Economies of Ukraine’s Top Trading Partners

This research paper studies the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on the economies of Ukraine’s top trading partners. Several earlier studies have examined the implications of the war for global trade and development, and how countries highly dependent on exports from the conflict region have responded. In our paper, we focused only on Ukraine, analyzed both import and export partners of Ukraine, and developed a framework to assess the impact of the war on various macroeconomic indicators for these partner countries. In particular, we established Difference-in-Difference based statistical models for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), food inflation, manufacturing production, gasoline prices and changes in inventories the for partner and non-partner countries over the pre-war and post-war years from 2021 through 2023. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the devastating and far-reaching economic effects of the Ukraine-Russia war that serve as a cautionary tale for world citizens and leaders alike.

THE UNDERTONE OF SOCIO-POLITICAL TUSSLE IN NIGER DELTA REGION OF NIGERIA

This research examined the undertone of socio-political tussle in Niger delta region of Nigeria. Data was collected through interviews given to the political class, civil servants, business owners and commoners. A random sampling technique was used to obtain a sample of 250 people from the target population and all respondents were interviewed. Data were analyzed using simple frequency and percentage (50%) as mean criteria. Examining the undertone of socio-political tussle in Niger Delta region of Nigeria include among others: the struggle for political dominance to control the state's oil wealth, the selfish interest in the personal use of the state funds at the expense of the interest of the region, the clash of the agreement where a party refused to honor the selfish agreement reached before between the current governor and his predecessor, believing that the oil wealth of the state should be used for the human and capital development of the region and not for the personnel consumption to the detriment of the first. The results of the study show that oil is the cause of ongoing socio-political conflicts in the Niger Delta region, which have catastrophic consequences and are already an obstacle to the development of the region.

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Reduce Human-Animal Conflict in India

The case focuses on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and computer vision (CV) technologies to solve a socially complex issue of human-animal conflict in the geographical regions surrounding the Tadoba Andhari Tiger Reserve (TATR) in Maharashtra state in central India. Due to an increasing tiger population, the villages surrounding the TATR often encountered tigers that strayed outside the reserve, sometimes leading to injuries or fatalities either to the humans or the wild animals involved. Valiance, a technology company, collaborated with the Forest department and other local stakeholders to create a computer vision based AI virtual wall system as a pilot project. The technology solution monitored the location 24hrs a day 7 days a week and had the capability of identifying tigers, leopards, and other predators, and sending out automated, real time alerts to help prevent human-animal conflict situations. Based on the outcome of the pilot, the solution could be refined and then a wider rollout could be planned.

Avaliação de cenários de alocação coletiva de direitos à água utilizando o modelo de simulação WEAP em regiões de conflito pelo uso da água: o caso da Bacia do Rio Formoso-Tocantins/Brasil

ABSTRACT The aim of the present study was to carry out a hydrological simulation of the Formoso River basin using WEAP and to model scenarios based on the rotating rules of the water pump in regions of conflict for the use of water. During July 2020, the influence of such rules on the remaining flow in these regions was assessed considering a collective grant context in which minimum environmental flows, determined from the seasonal Q90 (flexible) and monthly Q95 (conservative), should be preserved downstream from the critical sections. The results showed that the remaining flow exceeded the limit of the flexible environmental flow in 61% of the days in the middle stretch of the Formoso River and at the mouth of the Urubu River. In the lower section and mouth of the Formoso River, these values were above the conservative limit in 93% and 100% of the days, respectively. It was concluded that the application of the rules, coupled with the collective grant, could produce satisfactory results for water availability in the basin.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR BUSINESS EFFICIENCY AND CIVIL DEFENCE FOSTERING

In today's high-tech society, artificial intelligence technologies are used to increase the efficiency of business operations and facilitate the management of social and economic systems. In the conditions of unforeseen consequences of climate change and regional military conflicts, artificial intelligence technologies are becoming useful for improving civil security. This article explores using artificial intelligence technologies to improve economic efficiency and civil protection levels. Based on the VOSviewer bibliometric tool, the article highlights eight blocks of scientific research related to artificial intelligence and civil protection. The results prove that artificial intelligence, civil defence (along with risk management and preparedness) are separate building blocks for all other connections. As part of the empirical survey, it was found that there is no significant relationship between the integration of artificial intelligence and the accuracy of business decisions. Organisations may need to examine other factors contributing to the accuracy of business decisions, as AI integration alone may not be the deciding factor. Artificial intelligence can be used for civil protection purposes such as forecasting, warning, management of emergencies, and formation of an information base and emergency response scenarios. The article states that one of the advantages of using artificial intelligence is access to "big data" and the possibility of online analysis "in the cloud", forming almost instantaneous information support for management decisions. However, it should not be forgotten that all responsibility for using artificial intelligence technologies, including ethical components and related consequences, rests with the person. The principles of efficiency embedded in the technological aspects of the use of artificial intelligence may not coincide with universal human values, creating challenges and clear threats to the use of such technologies in social practice.

ПРОСТРАНСТВЕННЫЙ ФАКТОР В РАСПРЕДЕЛЕНИИ КОНФЛИКТОГЕННОСТИ НА ПОСТСОВЕТСКОЙ ТЕРРИТОРИИ (1992–2022 ГГ.)

Given that socio-political processes develop not only in time but also in space, their relative spatial configuration caninfluence their genesis and further evolution, which is manifested in the existence of neighborhood effect. Similar values of a phenomenon are clustered: the characteristics of the phenomenon in one location are determined not only by the qualities of this location itself but also by the characteristics of the same phenomenon in neighboring locations. The purpose of this study is to determine whetherneighborhood effect has influenced the spread of conflictogenicity in the post-Soviet space in 1992–2022 or, in other words, whetherconflictogenicity and its changes in this macroregion are clustered phenomena. The authors of this research define conflictogenicity asa cumulative indicator equal to the sum of conflictness scores of a unit of analysis (first-order administrative units of the former USSRrepublics) assigned to this unit from 1992 to 2022 by the Conflict Barometer project implemented by Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. Conflictogenicity changes are defined as the difference between conflictogenicity scores assigned to administrative units in 1992–1999 and in 2000–2022. To achieve the purpose of the research, the authors use global and local Moran’s indicesof spatial and differential spatio-temporal autocorrelation. The results of the study demonstrate that during the given period in the postSoviet space both conflictogenicity and conflictogenicity changes are relatively clustered phenomena. The most robust autocorrelationrelationships are registered for administrative units with the highest conflict rates and regions where conflictogenicity changes turnedout to be very significant. Moreover, these two groups of territorial units are almost identical to each other: the greatest conflictogenicitychanges have been noted in local clusters with high conflictogenicity levels. Thus, during the post-bipolar period spatial patterns havebeen visible in the post-Soviet space both in the distribution and in the evolution of conflicts.

Djibouti: A strategic choke point in the Bab el-Mandeb region

Djibouti's strategic position at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, underscores its geopolitical significance. This narrow strait is essential for global trade, with a significant share of the world's oil and commercial shipments passing through. Djibouti’s location at this juncture enhances its role as a pivotal hub for international maritime traffic and naval operations. The geopolitical landscape in Djibouti is currently influenced by its relationships with global powers. The country hosts military bases for the United States, China, France, and Japan, each seeking to secure their interests in this vital region. The establishment of China’s first overseas military base in Djibouti signifies a notable shift in the balance of power, emphasising Djibouti's strategic importance on the global stage. These bases are crucial for safeguarding maritime routes, countering piracy, and managing regional conflicts. At the same time, they also prove to be a potential source of power struggle between great powers. In the contemporary period, it is important to reevaluate the importance of this region in resonance with China’s rising influence through trade relations and investments. The intersection of military, economic, and geopolitical interests in Djibouti along with its regional dynamics certifies its enduring strategic importance. The resurgence of piracy, involvement of the Houthi rebels and the ongoing Israel Hamas conflict also reassure the shift of power relations in the Arab region from the lenses of global security.

Bezbednosne krize kao faktor migracija ka Evropskoj uniji

Security crises around the world as generators of migration are not a phenomenon of modern times, but the issue of migrant integration is becoming increasingly urgent due to the large number of migrants who have entered Europe over the past two decades. The recent surge has been driven by the growing number of regional conflicts, leading to migration of Palestinians, Syrians, Iraqis, Libyans, Afghans, and Eritreans who are fleeing war, ethnic conflict, or economic hardship, risking their lives in attempts to reach Europe. In recent times, transit countries like Hungary and Croatia have recorded a significant influx, while Germany has seen the largest absolute increase in first time asylum applicants due to its favorable policies towards migration and asylum seekers, as well as its relatively stable economy and high standard of living. In 2023, the political debate in the European Union focused on the major challenges facing the EU and its member states, particularly the development of the security situation in Ukraine and the management of migration, promoting integration policies that could have social, economic, and political impacts on the European Union. This paper aims to analyze the reports of international organizations to highlight the key security crises as factors driving migration to the European Union.