European Conflict Research Articles

10.H. Round table: Transforming health systems in Europe to respond to the large-scale displacement from war in Ukraine

Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused one of the largest population displacements in Europe since World War II. More than 6 million persons have sought international protection in other European countries, distributed in ways that take little account of the host countries’ population size, national income, or health system capacity. This workshop provides a platform to present and discuss findings of a health system impact assessment designed to anticipate the range of mid- to long-term impacts of this large-scale displacement on essential health system functions in refugee-receiving countries, identifying the challenges they face and opportunities to develop transformative policies and actions. This task is urgent given the risks of wider conflict in Europe. Objectives The workshop will 1) present the main findings from the health system impact assessment in seven refugee-receiving countries, 2) set out options for effective responses, considering policy and implementation perspectives, and 3) capitalise on the expertise of workshop participants to develop and refine policy options for structural reforms that not only help to sustain an effective response, but enhance the resilience of European health systems for the benefit of displaced populations and national residents alike. Format The workshop will comprise a panel with three speakers, followed by a roundtable discussion. Each panel member will make a short presentation (5 min) on different, but interrelated aspects of a transformative health system response to a protracted crisis scenario. These will highlight country and regional-level challenges arising during the Ukraine crisis, propose concrete policy options for transformation, and identify intersections between the health system response with other societal sectors and crises. The workshop objectives and rationales will be introduced by Kayvan Bozorgmehr, including a short pitch-presentation (3 min) highlighting the unequal distribution of displaced persons from Ukraine and the key-findings of the health system impact assessment. The panel will include follow-up presentations elaborating specific aspects in this context: 1. Healthcare models and needs for transformative response in a protracted crisis (Dr. Nino Berdzuli, WHO Special Envoy for Ukraine Emergency Response in refugee-receiving countries); 2. Supra-national health financing as transformative reform: pros and cons (Eilin Rast, Bielefeld University, Germany); 3. Regional Geopolitical Conflicts and Population Health in Caucasus, CIS and Ukraine (Prof. Akaki Zoidze, Ilia State University, Georgia). The subsequent roundtable discussion will be chaired by Martin McKee. It will focus on the proposed actions and considerations from a policy and implementation perspective, and workshop participants will be invited to contribute to a critical reflection regarding barriers and enablers, as well as required alliances and processes to translate the structural reforms into practice. Key messages • The ongoing conflict-related displacements from Ukraine have created a protracted crisis that will require structural transformations to enhance health system resilience. • Enhancing healthcare delivery, continuity of care, and effective health financing requires national and supra-national collaboration to sustain effective responses and prepare for future crises. Speakers/Panelists Nino Berdzuli Division of Country Health Programmes, WHO/Europe, Denmark Eilin Rast Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany Akaki Zoidze Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

From Conflict to Cooperation: Norwegian Labour Market Institutions in the Making

Moving a relationship of widespread conflicts and distrust into a virtuous circle of trust and cooperation is challenging, yet the case examined in this article shows that it is possible. A problematic start can indeed lead to a positive outcome. In the early twentieth century, Norway experienced the highest levels of labour conflict in Europe. Class conflicts were intense and often violent, with deep mistrust between the parties in the labour market. This situation changed markedly when the Norwegian Employers’ Confederation and the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions signed the Basic Agreement in 1935. This agreement not only led to a lasting decline in labour conflicts, but it also marked a crucial early step towards a system of close collaboration between labour and capital in Norway. By focusing on the intimate relationship between beliefs, trust, and cooperation, this article explores how the labour market parties transitioned from widespread conflict and open struggle to a system of peaceful negotiations and compromises. Changes in beliefs enabled the parties to coordinate on a new cooperative equilibrium, an equilibrium that continues to characterise Norway’s labour market today.

Az állami és nemzeti jelképek büntetőjogi védelme Európában

Aim: The aim of this study is to find out whether European countries protect their state and/or national symbols at the level of criminal law, whether they punish those who desecrate state symbols and, if so, exactly which symbols are protected. The answer to this question will also help us to understand the deeper question of which European countries consider state (and national) symbols to be of such value that various types of violations of them are punishable by criminal penalties as a last resort. Methodology: In order to establish this, we compared the criminal law of all European countries in which criminal offences are covered by a criminal code that functions as a separate penal code. For methodological soundness, countries without a separate Penal Code (and thus without a cartel constitution) (such as the United Kingdom) were excluded from the analysis, but all other European countries that are geographically (or if not geographically, such as Cyprus or Armenia, then culturally) part of Europe were examined. Findings: The results of the research disproved our initial hypothesis: the comparative study showed that the vast majority of European countries, more than 70%, protect their state (or national) symbols in some way, with a small minority of countries where there is no criminal law protection for the strict infringement of symbols. Value: This is also worthy of attention in the broader context of resolving the conflict in Europe between freedom of expression as a human and constitutional right and the constitutional value of what we call "the dignity of communities": in fact, the Europe of the 21st century (including the Western countries) has not yet departed from its community foundations and not only declares at constitutional level the symbols expressing the statehood and national identity of the nation that constitutes the state, but also (for the most part) protects them under criminal law.

The Child and the Animal in Times of War: Halahmy’s The Emergency Zoo and Contemporary News Reports on the War in Ukraine

This article looks at both Miriam Halahmy’s historical novel for children, The Emergency Zoo, set during several days of mass pet culling in London prior to World War II and Hilda Kean’s published research on the somewhat conveniently forgotten phenomenon, entitled The Great Dog and Cat Massacre. In both these works we observe the strong connection between child and pet, emphasised all the more in a period of uncertainty brought on by impending conflict. The reader is also presented with a detailed exploration of the child’s worldview as compared to that of the adults’ largely hierarchical humanistic perceptions, a way of thinking which is taken as one of the key contributory causes of the terrible pet cull of 1939. Comparisons are then drawn with the treatment of the child–animal relationship and that of household pets during the current Russo-Ukrainian War (the largest European conflict since World War II) as broadly represented in newspaper articles and photographic reports. These reports not only recognise the importance of the child–animal relationship (especially in terms of alleviating trauma and providing a sense of well-being) but also demonstrate that animals are both perceived as refugees and rightly given refugee status. Through an analysis of the strong contemporary media focus on the child and animal refugee, along with the comparison drawn with both Halahmy’s novel and Kean’s historical study, the article concludes that there is clear evidence showing that more recent perceptions of the child–animal relationship and the improved status of pets have been specifically shaped by both posthumanist thinking and the various debates concerning the nature and consequences of the Anthropocene.

Nice to value. Unraveling the nexus between management accounting use and financial performance: A quantitative study of SMEs

ABSTRACT This study investigates the intricate relationship between management accounting (MA) practices and financial performance (FP) in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Italy and Germany, offering practical insights for practitioners and policy makers. Despite the theoretical benefits of MA practices like cost accounting, budgeting, and key performance indicators, their implementation in SMEs remains limited. Prior research suggests that SMEs often rely on informal control systems due to resource constraints and a lack of familiarity with MA tools. The COVID-19 pandemic and recent European conflicts have stressed the need for robust MA practices to navigate economic volatility and enhance resilience. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected via questionnaires from 238 SMEs in Italy and Germany, targeting chief financial officers, board members, and majority shareholders. The analysis, employing partial least squares structural equation modeling, reveals a significant positive impact of MA practices on FP. Factors such as resource availability, training, and the culture of control play crucial roles in this relationship. These findings underscore the strategic importance of MA in driving organizational performance and highlight the need for SMEs to adopt these practices more comprehensively. This study offers valuable guidance for SME managers in enhancing operational efficiency and strategic decision making. Moreover, it provides policy makers with evidence-based recommendations to support SME growth and resilience through targeted training programs and resource allocation, ensuring a robust framework for economic stability and development.

Coal in the 21st century: Industry transformation and transition justice in the phaseout of coal-as-fuel and the phase-in of coal as multi-asset resource platforms

The coal industry is enjoying long-term investments in new coal-fired power generation even as coal mining and production have been declining. Recent conflict in Europe has disrupted energy supplies and reinvigorated coal use. The duration of the retrenchment to coal may be short lived, but the end point of “short lived” remains uncertain. The present state of the coal industry and the investment community that underpins its growth obviates any meaningful acceleration in coal's phaseout as a core fuel resource. However, coal can be recast as a catalyst for achieving clean energy and economy futures. This can be done by seeing coal hydrocarbon deposits and byproducts of coal processing as long-term multi-asset resource platforms (MARPS), which integrate multiple new revenue streams on coal lands other than just mining coal as a fuel. New value comes from repurposing and leveraging mining lands, harvesting minor and trace elements from coal, and creating new revenue from harvesting hydrogen and carbon materials from coal bed methane, raw coal, coal tailings, and fly ash residues. We make the case that Coal Mining Enterprise (CME) value can be enhanced by ending the use of coal-as-fuel and creating new value streams serving existing and emerging markets by fully assessing, evaluating, and utilizing the portfolio of natural resources that are collocated within a typical coalfield. Coal sector investors tend not to see undervaluation in coal assets because CMEs focus predominantly on mining, processing, and shipping coal-as-fuel for electricity production and industrial processes. Formulating and asking the correct questions about how much value is being left on the table may bring innovation into a new frontier of coal as multi-asset resource platforms. Co-benefits of the approach include job creation across many viable emerging markets where “refining” coal is a competitive source of factor inputs. Moreover, it aids governments in aggressive support of coal industry transformations, through which lasting coal transition justice can be achieved. Ironically, despite all the technological and market uncertainties, coal in the 21st century can be, and should be, a critical success factor in achieving clean energy and economy futures.

Navigating the storm: The intersection of geopolitical and financial crime risks

The world is facing an incredibly complex set of global risks, from conflict in Europe and the Middle East, to climate change and food and energy insecurity. As we progress into 2024, we are seeing an intensification of recent trends: geopolitical instability is accelerating the use of economic statecraft and asymmetric tools of financial conflict. These tools are used as both alternatives and additions to hard power. This paper argues that risks to global financial institutions are increasingly characterised by this nexus. Against a backdrop of multiplying wars, the geopolitical activities of treasury departments are becoming more pronounced. This paper addresses how some of these financial and economic tools are deployed and the nature of the risks that have emerged as a result, particularly as the targets of economic statecraft seek to counter them. The paper also considers how financial institutions can build resilience in their organisations by situating geopolitics effectively within financial crime compliance frameworks.

Ethical Dilemmas Faced by Military Health Personnel During High-Intensity Conflict: The Crucial Issue of Triage.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. It has forced countries to prepare for engagement on a massive scale, namely, a high-intensity war between nation states. A potential massive influx of wounded personnel risks saturating logistical supply chains and requires changes to not only medical care but also a paradigm shift. In this context, the principle of distributive justice is key. The aim is to save as many lives as possible through triage, which consists in "doing the greatest good for the greatest number." This idea is fundamental, as an emergency that has passed is no longer an emergency. However, international texts and treaties not only underline that the sole criterion for triage is clinical severity, but they also fail to take into account the patient's status (civilian, friend, and foe). In a high-intensity warfare situation, these texts, and the medical-surgical triage criteria they provide are insufficient, as caregivers may be required to make decisions based on the status of the patient. The need to make such choices could cause psychological suffering among military caregivers, as individuals are recurrently faced with difficult ethical dilemmas. One way to prevent this happening is to provide predeployment training in wartime medical ethics. The latter would include both instruction in international humanitarian law and practical simulations of clinical situations where the person is faced with an ethical dilemma.

Building a decision-support tool to inform sustainability approaches under complexity: Case study on managing wild ruminants

In wildlife management, differing perspectives among stakeholders generate conflicts about how to achieve disparate sustainability goals that include ecological, economic, and sociocultural dimensions. To mitigate such conflicts, decisions regarding wildlife management must be taken thoughtfully. To our knowledge, there exists no integrative modeling framework to inform these decisions, considering all dimensions of sustainability. We constructed a decision-support tool based on stakeholder workshops and a Bayesian decision network to inform management of wild ruminants in the federal state of Lower Austria. We use collaborative decision analysis to compare resource allocations while accounting for trade-offs among dimensions of sustainability. The tool is designed for application by non-technical users across diverse decision-making contexts with particular sets of wildlife management actions, objectives, and uncertainties. Our tool represents an important step toward developing and evaluating a transparent and replicable approach for mitigating wildlife-based conflicts in Europe and beyond.

Biotechnological Innovations in Sustainable Food Production

This review article explores the critical role of biotechnology in addressing the global food security crisis aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic and Eastern European conflict. It starts by examining the profound impacts of these events on food supply chains and pricing, supported by relevant statistical evidence. The study then discusses agricultural biotechnology, comparing conventional and sustainable agriculture, with an emphasis on genome editing and modification techniques such as Zinc Finger Nucleases (ZFNs), Oligonucleotide-directed mutagenesis (ODM), and CRISPR. The application of RNA interference in agriculture and microbial biotechnology in promoting soil health and sustainable food production is discussed. Furthermore, the review shifts focus to the utilization of microbial biotechnology for soil health enhancement and sustainable food production, encompassing the development of pest-resistant and drought-tolerant crops and biotechnological methods for optimizing water use efficiency. Additionally, it examines biotechnology's applications in food processing, including enhancing nutritional content and improving shelf life and safety. The European Green Deal is analyzed, particularly its influence on agriculture through strategies like Farm to Fork, Biodiversity, and Circular Economy. Finally, the review concludes by addressing policy considerations, ethical challenges, and the necessity of international cooperation in biotechnology research, exemplified by projects like the Golden Rice and Heat-Tolerant Maize for Asia (HTMA), highlighting the multidisciplinary nature and global significance of biotechnological innovations in ensuring sustainable food production.

Identification of typical district configurations: A two-step global sensitivity analysis framework

The recent geopolitical conflicts in Europe have underscored the vulnerability of the current energy system to the volatility of energy carrier prices. In the prospect of defining robust energy systems ensuring sustainable energy supply in the future, the imperative of leveraging renewable indigenous energy sources becomes evident. However, as such technologies are integrated into the existing system, it is necessary to shift from the current centralized infrastructure to a decentralized production strategy. This paper presents a method to identify a panel of technological solutions at the district level, intended to reduce complexity for the integration of decentralized models into a national-scale model. The framework’s novelty lies in combining a global sensitivity analysis for solution generation with clustering to identify typical configurations. The global sensitivity analysis is performed on a mixed integer linear programming model, which optimally sizes and operates district energy systems. The sensitivity analysis determines the most influential parameters of the model using the Morris method and provides a representative sampling of the solution space by leveraging the Sobol sampling strategy. The latter is then clustered using a density-based algorithm to identify typical solutions. The framework is applied to a suburban and residential Swiss neighborhood. The first outcome of the research is the high sensitivity of the model to energy carrier prices. As a result, Sobol’s sampling space separates itself into two system types: those based on a natural gas boiler and those relying on a combination of electrical heaters and heat pumps. For both types, the electricity demand is either fulfilled by PV panels or electricity imports. The identified configurations showcase that the framework successfully generates a panel of solutions composed of various system configurations and operations being representative of the overall solution space.

A novel prediction model to evaluate the dynamic interrelationship between gold and crude oil

AbstractGlobal events, such as the pandemic and European conflicts, have caused significant inflation and high volatility in gold and crude oil prices. This has garnered substantial international attention while banks, governments, and businesses are devoted to developing strategies to hedge against the potential impacts of economic uncertainties. Focused on addressing economic uncertainties, this study delves into the crucial role of the relationship between gold and crude oil in shaping global financial and economic dynamics. The primary objective of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis and construct a rolling SARIMAX model for predicting the rolling 12-months correlation of the Gold–WTI and Gold–Brent relationship. Monthly data on Gold spot prices, WTI futures, and Brent futures is collected from May 1983 to December 2022. Three sophisticated data analysis techniques, the Rolling Correlation method, the SARIMAX model, and the Rolling Model are integrated to develop the Rolling SARIMAX module. R-square values of this newly developed model achieved 89.8% and 88.4% for predicting the rolling correlation for Gold Spot Price-WTI Futures and Gold Spot Price-Brent Futures, respectively, while the mean absolute percentage error was 10.33% and 10.84%, respectively. The higher accuracy in correlation prediction between gold and crude oil prices can present critical insights for risk management, economic planning, strategic investment, economic cycles, and global economic outlook. This newly developed prediction model adeptly handles both linear and non-linear relationships while adapting to external variables in dynamic market scenarios. Its judicious balance between complexity and practicality positions it as a sophisticated analytical tool with real-world applicability, setting a new benchmark in financial market analysis.

The secondary transfer effects of contact in facilitating peace in a frozen conflict: The case of Turkish immigrants in Cyprus

AbstractThe present research focuses on the secondary transfer effect of contact, a relatively less researched dimension of intergroup contact, on reconciliation in the context of one of the most intractable and longest surviving interethnic conflicts in Europe, the Cyprus conflict. Currently, Cyprus is home to three groups with differential social, economic and political statuses: (1) disadvantaged low‐status Turkish immigrants, (2) simultaneously advantaged (relative to Turkish immigrants) and disadvantaged (relative to Greek Cypriots) Turkish Cypriots and (3) historically advantaged high‐status Greek Cypriots. Across two studies (Study 1 N = 270 and Study 2 N = 501), we test whether and how Turkish immigrants’ contact with Turkish Cypriots shapes Turkish immigrants' support for reconciliation and willingness to live with Greek Cypriots via attitude generalisation. We also investigate whether Turkish immigrants’ perceived ingroup reputation qualifies this process. Controlling for the effects of direct contact with Greek Cypriots, our results show that both quantity and quality of contact with proximal Turkish Cypriots were indirectly associated with greater support for reconciliation with them and more willingness to live with Greek Cypriots via positive attitudes towards the primary (Turkish Cypriots) and positive attitudes towards the secondary (Greek Cypriots), sequentially. Moreover, we found that the perceived higher ingroup reputation across the island positively moderated the indirect effects of primary group contact on support for reconciliation and willingness to live with Greek Cypriots. That is, more contact with the primary outgroup was positively linked to greater support for reconciliation with the distal secondary outgroup Greek Cypriots when perceptions of ingroup reputation were higher.

Affective polarization in Europe

Abstract Affective polarization, a concept that originated in the USA, has increasingly been studied in Europe’s multi-party systems. This form of polarization refers to the extent to which party supporters dislike one another – or, more technically, to the difference between the positive feelings towards the supporters of one’s own political party and the negative feelings towards the supporters of other parties. Measuring this gap in Europe’s multi-party systems requires researchers to make various important decisions relating to conceptualization and measurement. Often, our focus could instead lie on assessing partisan hostility or negative party affect, which is easier to measure. While recent research on affective polarization in Europe has already taught USA lot, both about affective polarization and about political conflict in Europe, I nevertheless suggest that research in this field faces four challenges, namely developing better measures, more sophisticated theories, clearer accounts of affective polarization’s importance and successful ways of reducing negative party affect, if this is indeed desirable.

Prioritizing competencies for soldier's mental resilience: an application of integrative fuzzy-trapezoidal decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory in updating training program.

The development of resilience is of the utmost importance in military training due to the demanding and high-stress nature of combat situations. Although there have been numerous studies on resilience competencies in the military, there is a research gap when it comes to identifying the most essential competencies that should be prioritized in training programs, particularly within compressed timeframes. With the current geopolitical landscape and ongoing military conflicts in Europe, it is necessary to expedite training of soldiers, including resilience training, without compromising the effectiveness of the program. This study aims to address this research gap by using a reductionist approach to resilience training and identifying the critical competencies that senior soldiers need to be trained to coach younger soldiers to maintain psychological strength during deployment. By filling this research gap, the study will contribute to the development of more efficient and targeted resilience training programs that optimize the ability of soldiers to adapt and excel in challenging military environments. To address the issue, this study assessed the competencies comprising the master resilience training (MRT) program, widely recognized as one of the most effective military resilience training programs. Two groups of military experts, totaling 16 individuals, were involved in the evaluation process, representing two military contexts. The first group consisted of Ukrainian military experts whose experiences primarily focused on defending their own country's territory. The second group comprised Lithuanian military experts who had greater expertise in conducting military missions abroad. The assessment of resilience competencies was carried out using a deep analysis approach through the application of effective multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). Specifically, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method was used, which is a significant multicriteria technique used to determine relationships among criteria and assign weight coefficients. In this study, the DEMATEL model was extended using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (TrFN-DEMATEL) to accommodate decision-making under uncertainty conditions. The research findings highlight the critical importance of three core resilience competencies: self-regulation, mental agility and strength of character. The importance of each competency varies depending on the specific military context. When defending one's own country's territory, strength of character emerges as the key factor in enhancing soldiers' mental resilience. Conversely, during military operations abroad, self-regulation is the primary factor that promotes psychological resilience. Furthermore, the results show that these three primary competencies form a 'cause group' that influences other competencies through a cause-and-effect dependency. Based on the findings, the theoretical conclusion is drawn that the importance of resilience competencies is contextually differentiated. Furthermore, each resilience competency is associated with a set of causes or effects. These are valuable insights for improving resilience competency training programs.

Evaluating different strategies in Ukraine and its effects on the international systems

The recent war between Russia and Ukraine, which is considered as the biggest and most important military conflict in Europe after the Second World War, will leave deep consequences on the relations of countries in addition to the pervasive effects on the level of the international system. A crisis in one region affects the interests of other actors in other regions; therefore, the disruption of the balance of power in the relations between the great powers following Russia's attack on Ukraine includes opportunities and threats for international actors. Based on this, the current article aimed to answer the question, “What impact will Russia-Ukraine conflict have on the international system?”. The research hypothesis was proposed in such a way that the recent crisis in Ukraine can affect the international system in economic, security, and social axes. The findings of the research showed that the war in Ukraine would probably have had global effects on the food, energy and economic systems. The analysis method used in this research was descriptive and analytical, and to achieve the main goal of the research, which was to investigate the possible effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the international system and global actors, the theoretical framework of offensive realism was used.

Industrial action in private international law

This contribution deals with both jurisdiction and applicable law with regard to cross-border collective actions in labour law. It demonstrates that the European conflicts rule embodied in Article 9 of the Rome II Regulation is open to diverging interpretations. This can, to a large extent, be explained by the very diverse legal characterisation of industrial action in the national systems of the EU Member States. The connecting factors used in the Rome II Regulation also create specific challenges when applied in the context of industrial action. As a result of these complications, Article 9 Rome II currently fails to fulfil its function of creating legal certainty around the legality and the legal consequences of industrial action with a cross-border element. A further clarification of the scope of Article 9 and the role played by the law of the country in which the industrial action is taken would help to reduce the current confusion and uncertainty. The uncertainty as to the applicable law is exacerbated by the rules on jurisdiction in the Brussels I bis Regulation which allow, to some extent, for forum shopping. Two provisions of the Brussels I bis Regulation might warrant revision to reduce their negative impact on the exercise of the right to industrial action: the rule on multiple defendants (Article 8(1)) and the rule granting jurisdiction to the place where the damage caused by the industrial action is sustained (Article 7(2)).

Borders, states, and armed conflicts in Europe and Northeast Asia since 1945: The moral hazard of great-power encroachments

This article discusses the significance of international borders in Europe and Northeast Asia during the Cold War (1945–1989) and after. Using the concept of ‘moral hazard’, the article examines what happens when great powers frequently violate the borders of neighboring countries without suffering adverse repercussions. Norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity are viable only if large countries are willing to uphold them most of the time. The Soviet Union used or threatened to use military force against East European countries on numerous occasions (1953, 1956, 1968, and 1980–1981) with impunity. The Russian Federation adopted a broadly similar policy toward neighboring countries that had been republics of the Soviet Union until 1991. Russian forces in Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Ukraine served as instruments of Russian hegemony in those countries. Until 2014, Western governments made little or no effort to deter or counter Russian military encroachments in neighboring republics. By the principle of moral hazard, leaders in the Kremlin came to believe that they could act with a free hand in the former USSR.

Global shocks and local connectedness: evidence from dynamic tail risk interdependences among Chinese regional carbon markets

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes tail risk interdependence among four regional carbon markets in China to investigate the effect of exogenous shocks on local connectedness. We utilize a time-varying copulas approach and find that: (i) the Shenzhen carbon market has the highest level of tail risk due to the lower liquidity and weaker resilience. (ii) Carbon markets where prices are more responsive to information have higher levels of tail risk dependence. (iii) Compared to the China – US trade dispute and the armed conflict in Europe, the shocks from the extreme weather and the COVID-19 outbreak can prominently strengthen tail risk.

The Australian Economy in 2023–24: Navigating a Narrow Path

AbstractThe economy grew at a moderate pace in 2022–23 as Australians adjusted to rising costs of living. The aggressive tightening of monetary policy has eased inflationary pressure, but inflation remains high. Strong labour market performance has been the brightest note in the current Australian macroeconomic landscape, although labour productivity growth was disappointing. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in Europe with its ensuing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the recent conflict in the Middle East increased global uncertainty and volatility in food and energy prices. This, together with the slowdown in China, added further downside risks to the outlook for the economy in 2023–24.