Drivers Of Conflict Research Articles

Evidence of spatial competition, over resource scarcity, as a primary driver of conflicts between small-scale and industrial fishers

Accounts of fishing conflicts have been rising globally, particularly between small-scale and industrial vessels. These conflicts involve verbal or physical altercations, and may include destruction of boats, assault, kidnapping, and murder. Current scholarship around industrial/small-scale fishing conflicts theorizes them as a form of resource conflict, where fish scarcity is the dominant contributor to conflict and competition. Alternatively, conflicts may be driven by spatial competition, concentrating where there are increased encounters, unrelated to resource status. Current policies to address these conflicts focus on enforcing the separation of small-scale and industrial vessels; however, this broad spatial separation has yet to be evaluated for deterring conflicts. Here we employ a novel spatial analysis to estimate the locations of industrial/small-scale conflicts at sea in Ghana, West Africa. Using data from narrative reports over the period of 1985 to 2014, we combine qualitative information on depth and shoreline indicators to analyze conflict locations. We find virtually all expected conflict locations (98%) occurred within the zone meant to exclude industrial vessels, and conflicts concentrated primarily around major ports. Our results suggest conflicts are likely more related to spatial patterns of vessel presence than patterns of resource use. These findings suggest a critical need for evidence-based and contextual information on the drivers of fisheries conflicts, rather than continued reliance on assumptions of resource scarcity. They also suggest that nuanced policies that reduce vessel encounter and clarify exclusive spatial rights may be more important in responding to these conflicts than approaches designed to broadly separate fleets or increase fish stocks.

Revisiting the Historical Context and Drivers of Farmer-Herder Conflict in Benue State, Nigeria

Revisiting the Historical Context and Drivers of Farmer-Herder Conflict in Benue State, Nigeria

An In-Depth Analysis of Climate Change as a Driver of Natural Resource Conflict: A Study in Sambang—The Gambia

An In-Depth Analysis of Climate Change as a Driver of Natural Resource Conflict: A Study in Sambang—The Gambia

"Отечественная война" за Карабах: предпосылки и последствия

SUMMARY: Focusing on the culmination of the Karabakh conflict in the so-called 44-day war of 2020 and the final liquidation of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh in September 2023, this article reconstructs the mechanisms of perpetual confrontation in 1988–1923. A product of the competing Armenian and Azerbaijani nationalisms during the late Soviet period, the territorial dispute over the predominantly Armenian-populated region of Azerbaijan formed a cultural mechanism that produced discourses of hatred and counterfactual historical claims. Both sides' fixation on the mythologized past made mutual understanding and compromise impossible, predetermining an equally antagonistic future. Cultural mythologies framed by tropes of Romantic nationalism became primary drivers of the territorial conflict in the late 1980s, when they proved their efficiency in nationalist mobilization. Today, political regimes in Armenia and Azerbaijan entirely rely on thus-produced national mobilization as the foundation of their legitimacy and authority, which makes the conflict insoluble. Today, it is not the contested territory that produces confrontation, but the need to sustain authority within the embraced format of national mobilization that necessitates constant disputes with the neighboring country.

Influence of the Kenya National Policy on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management Framework on the Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees in Mombasa County

Global experience with sustainable peacebuilding has been diverse since the term was formally introduced to the world by the United Nations in 1992. Since then, peacebuilding has been implemented in the absence of a universally accepted approach or clear criteria for success. Multiple actors have conceptualized and implemented peacebuilding to correspond with their contexts and needs. This is true for Kenya and Mombasa County, in particular. Mombasa Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees have been conducting peacebuilding in the County, against the backdrop of old conflict drivers such as poverty and resource-based conflict, and emerging threats to peace such as drug trafficking and youth radicalization. Therefore, the ability of the Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees to foster sustainable peacebuilding in these circumstances needs to be interrogated. The objective of this study was to examine the influence of the policy framework of the formal peacebuilding infrastructure in fostering sustainable peacebuilding. The conceptual framework was based on Galtung’s Theory of Peacebuilding, Galtung’s Theory of Structural Violence, and Lederach’s Conflict Transformation Theory. The study adopted a descriptive survey research design and applied both convenience and purposive sampling techniques. Data was collected through semi-structured questionnaires, key informant interviews (KII), and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) guides and observation checklists. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used for data analysis. The study findings indicated that Mombasa County Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees are experiencing diminished agency because of a lack of resources to carry out peacebuilding work in the County. Those members of the Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees were not competent to undertake modern-day peacebuilding activities because of inadequate training. Therefore; the study recommends that the idea of peacebuilding through local peacebuilding structures such as Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees be a priority in Kenya’s peacebuilding discourse with some modifications in the formation and functioning of Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees. The Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees should be de-linked from the county security processes and positioned as the “Honest Brokers for Peacebuilding”, whose primary responsibility will be to harness all available resources in their locality to bear on their peacebuilding agenda. The national government should educate the public about peacebuilding and the role that Sub-County Peacebuilding Committees are expected to play in this agenda.

Reprint of: The psychological experience of intragroup conflict

Despite the centrality of differences as a driver of conflict, most of the empirical research on group conflict has focused on the group as a whole, paying little attention to the differing experiences of individuals during conflict—that is, the ways individuals perceive, make sense of, and emotionally experience a conflict episode. Although people process information about a conflict using the same general cognitive and emotional mechanisms, their personal characteristics (e.g., personality, cultural background), beliefs and motives (e.g., orientation toward conflict), and past experiences will influence how they make sense of what is occurring and their subsequent conflict behavior. Building on recent work that has taken a multi-level approach to understanding team conflict and drawing from related literature in social, cognitive, and personality psychology, we explicate an individual’s psychological experience of a conflict episode as a process by which individuals make sense of and emotionally experience what is happening, develop attitudes towards others in the group, and exchange and integrate knowledge about the conflict and others involved. We argue that a more nuanced understanding of the intraindividual experience of conflict generates important insight into understanding individual conflict behavior, helping us predict how people will behave in conflict situations and how conflict episodes will unfold. We conclude with implications for how to intervene to promote cooperative behavior and positive team outcomes, along with an agenda for future research.

Drivers of Human‒wildlife interactions in a co-existence area: a case study of the Ngorongoro conservation area, Tanzania

Communities in Africa bordering national parks or protected areas commonly overlap with wildlife. However, it is unclear to what degree such overlaps result in interactions with wildlife. The Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) was designated a multiple land-use conservation area in 1959. Maasai and Datoga pastoralists and Hadzabe hunter-gatherers reside with protected wildlife in NCA. The study was carried out in four Maasai villages within the NCA, including Kayapus, Endulen, Meshili, and Nainokanoka. A cross-sectional study was used to assess drivers of human‒wildlife interactions using questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions, and field visits. A total of 396 households participated in the survey. The collected data were analysed using qualitative data analysis techniques and descriptive statistics such as frequencies and means. The habitat, which comprises water, pasture, shelter, and space, accounted for 100% of interactions, indicating that it is the primary driver of human‒wildlife conflict. Other driving factors for human‒wildlife interactions are the increase in wildlife, collections of firewood, domestic animals kept, and influence of community sleeping arrangements, searching for traditional medicines, and killing of lions for ritual purposes or defense. Large household sizes (36 family members) coupled with climate change have also driven and fuelled human‒wildlife interactions. Challenges identified as threatening human‒wildlife co-existence are injuries, deaths, disease transmission, and destruction of property. To mitigate human‒wildlife conflicts, the following are recommended: the increase in boarding schools coupled with the increase in enrolment of students in boarding schools or providing reliable transport, distribution of tap water, increasing food assistance to the community living in poverty, controlling population increase through reallocation the population in other areas, introducing zero-grazing, using biogas, discouraging community sleeping arrangements, i.e., humans with calves in the same house, improving record-keeping of the wildlife attacks, provisional dissemination of research findings to the community.

The Identification and Driving Factor Analysis of Ecological-Economi Spatial Conflict in Nanjing Metropolitan Area Based on Remote Sensing Data

The rapid socio-economic development of the metropolitan area has led to the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment. This leads to intense competition and conflict between different spatial use types. Spatial conflict research is essential to achieve ecological-economic coordination and high-quality development. However, existing studies lack comprehensive and direct ecological-economic spatial conflicts, especially those on the spatial-temporal evolution and potential drivers of spatial conflict. In this study, we identified the ecological-economic spatial conflicts in the Nanjing metropolitan area in 2010, 2015, and 2020. This study used the random forest to analyze the factors that influenced the change of spatial conflict. Results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the ecological-economic spatial conflict in the Nanjing metropolitan area changed significantly. (2) Land use change has an important effect on spatial conflicts, which are easily triggered by uncontrolled urban expansion, but ecological land can mitigate spatial conflicts. (3) Relevant driving factors of spatial conflicts show multi-level features, so the development of conflict reconciliation countermeasures needs to be tailored to local conditions. This study provides a significant foundation for the high-quality development of the Nanjing metropolitan area and provides a reference for the planning and management of the territorial space.

Snow leopard - human conflict as a conservation challenge - a review

Human conflict with large carnivores continues to be a great conservation challenge, and conflict with snow leopards (Panthera uncia) has been studied to understand causes and propose mitigation schemes. While the nature of snow leopard-human conflict is similar in most cases, reported studies have been case- and area-specific with mitigation strategies not necessarily based on a synthesis of relevant literature. We reviewed snow leopard literature published from 1970-2020 to identify the main drivers of human-snow leopard conflict (HSLC) and describe conservation and conflict mitigation strategies commonly employed. Based on 47 relevant peer-reviewed articles, review papers, book chapters, project reports, and other grey literature, we identified four major conflict domains: livestock management-related, socio-economic/human-related, ecological, and policy-related. Most articles suggested more than one conflict mitigation scheme. Three conflict mitigation domains – preventive, supportive, and compensatory – were widely reflected in the snow leopard-human conflict literature. The most commonly reported mitigation schemes included: 1) building or predator-proofing corrals; 2) training shepherds and improving livestock guarding; 3) livestock insurance schemes; 4) compensation for livestock predation; 5) capacity building, education, and awareness programs; and 6) improved breeding and use of guard dogs. Future management efforts need to tailor their approach depending on cultural, economic, and ecological circumstances.

Determinant factors of resource conflict between farmers and herdsmen in benue state, nigeria.

The determinant factors of resource conflict between farmers and herdsmen in Benue State were analysed. Objectives were to assess the prevalence of resource conflict factors in Benue state and determine factors most responsible for the resource conflict in Benue state. Field survey of three hundred and eighty-two (382) residents was conducted using questionnaire, interview and focus group discussion. Data collected were analyzed using percentage and Factor Analysis. Results showed that factors such as drought, flood, erosion, pollution, politics, greed, proliferation of arms, religion, tribalism, expansion of farmland, increases in herds, poverty, unemployment, cattle rustling, destruction of crops by herds, population growth and urbanization are responsible for the conflict. However, further, analysis of result shows that only 1.38% of respondents posited that environmental/climatic factors, 30% economic factors, 32.78% greed/insecurity, 13.75% and 22.08% posited cultural and population factors respectively. It was concluded that human factors such as economic, greed/insecurity, cultural and population are the major drivers of the resource conflict between farmers and herdsmen than environmental factors like erosion, flood and draught. promote skill acquisition and create jobs to engage youths to boast the economy and reduce conflict.

Human-Terrestrial Wildlife Conflict in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review

We conducted a review of 26 articles published between 2009 and 2021 to determine human-wildlife conflict based on spatial and temporal patterns, biological components, drivers of conflict, and mitigation methods used. We employed search, synthesis, appraisal, and analysis framework for review and VOSviewer software for network analysis. We included articles that only focused on relations between terrestrial wildlife and humans, while others deal with ecology, distribution, and biology of wildlife because it does not go with HWC. Forty-seven species of terrestrial vertebrates were reported in conflict-related studies, being Bovidae and Cercopithecidae the most frequently studied groups, of which eleven are found in threatened list species. The main drivers reported were land use change, proximity to protected areas, and illegal resource exploitation. In the management case, the use of traditional protection techniques such as fencing, guarding, and physical barriers was reported. About 178 keywords' analysis revealed a focus on “coexistence,” “mitigation,” and “food security.” The literature focused mainly on larger mammals, led by Ethiopian authors, and excluded the social dimensions of HWC. Therefore, identifying conflict-prone species focuses on the social dimensions of coexistence, such as human attitudes towards terrestrial wildlife, and broadening the taxonomic and cultural breadth of HWC is required.

Conservation conflict hotspots: Mapping impacts, risk perception and tolerance for sustainable conservation management

Global processes manifesting as activities in local places have led to an increase in documented conservation conflicts. Conservation conflicts are sometimes labelled human-wildlife conflict, focusing only on the direct negative impact of species (usually wildlife) on humans or vice versa. However, many authors now recognize that conservation conflicts arise between people with diverse views, when one party acts against the interests of another. They are thus human-human conflicts and not merely an impact on or from conservation. Conflict is not always directly correlated with impact because perceptions of risk, levels of tolerance and conservation values influence human responses. This review aims to define the concept of ‘conservation conflict hotspots’ and explore its practical applications in conservation. We propose that the interaction of impact, risk perception, level of tolerance in a context of conservation values can be mapped at a local scale, with spatial visualization assisting the prediction, understanding and management of such hotspots. The term conservation value incorporates measures of indigeneity, endemicity and demography along with emotional or cultural attachment to species or places. The umbrella terms of risk perception and tolerance capture many of the aspects of attitude, values and individual demographics that can influence people’s actions, enabling contextualization of relevant social factors at local scales. Spatially mapped layers enable us to plan and target conservation efforts towards human as well as ecological factors. The concept of ‘conservation conflict hotspot’ emphasizes the need for transdisciplinary research to understand underlying drivers of conflict and for dialogical and peace-building approaches to facilitate trust and cooperation amongst actors. We can thus address conflicts and achieve sustainable outcomes.

Socioecological Framework for Drivers of Conflict and Postconflict Violence Against Women and Girls.

This article advances our understanding of the drivers and multidimensional nature of conflict-related violence against women and girls (CRVAWG). It presents an adapted socioecological model, which supports research, analysis, and programming and can be further adapted as the empirical evidence base grows. Although models to help explore violence against women and girls generally have advanced over recent decades, these have not addressed the specific dynamics of conflict-affected settings. This article makes a unique contribution by bringing together research on CRVAWG and presenting a new model for deepening current approaches to understanding and preventing CRVAWG.

Identifying human–brown bear conflict hotspots for prioritizing critical habitat and corridor conservation in southwestern Iran

AbstractMultiple studies have used species distribution models to identify human–wildlife conflict drivers. An important application of these models is spatial conflict resolution by accounting for habitat suitability and corridors. We used distribution and connectivity models to identify habitats and corridors for brown bear Ursus arctos in southwestern Iran with high risk of bear damages, and evaluated the effects of landscape composition and configuration on the predicted conflict hotspots. We used 154 locations of bear damage incidents along with a suit of predictors to develop risk models. To prepare predictive variables, we used brown bear occurrence data and a number of covariates to develop a suitability model. We then converted the suitability map into a resistance surface and used a connectivity model to predict corridors. Finally, the bear damages risk map, habitats and corridors were overlaid to prioritize conflict hotspots, corridors and habitats, and conflict‐prone corridors. Proportion of suitable habitats, distance to village, density of forest patches, conservation areas and corridor bottlenecks were the main predictors contributing to bear damages risk. A total of 38.73% of habitats, and 6.24% of corridors across the 124 000‐km2 study area were identified as areas with high risk of bear damages. The risk of bear damage was also spatially associated with forests fragmentation and patchiness of habitat. Our results highlight the importance of landscape configuration and corridors when investigating the spatial patterns of bear damages. Our findings showed how the combination of distribution models and connectivity analysis can guide carnivore conservation planning aiming at reducing the risk of carnivore‐inflicted damages.

Labor conflict within foreign, domestic, and Chinese-owned manufacturing firms in Ethiopia

Research has documented labor conflict within foreign-owned, and especially Chinese-owned, manufacturing firms in sub-Saharan economies. Yet, systematic comparisons of foreign versus domestic firms are rare, and it remains unclear whether labor conflict is a phenomenon that affects emerging industries or is specific to foreign firms. Drawing on a large firm survey in Ethiopia, we show that foreign firms hire similarly educated and experienced workers. They also offer comparable salaries, benefits, and hours than domestic firms, after controlling for firm size and age. Nevertheless, they experience more complaints, strikes, and protests, with Chinese-owned firms reporting particularly high rates of labor conflict. To scrutinize these findings, we conduct case studies of labor management in six domestic and eight foreign-owned firms around Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. We observe antagonistic labor relations in five foreign-owned firms, four of which are Chinese-owned. In these firms, managers perceive employees as using labor laws to take advantage of them, whereas employees see labor laws as a basis for harmonious labor relations. In the remaining firms, managers frame their firm policies as consistent with employee perceptions of labor laws. We conjecture that the visibility of formal labor institutions leads employees to interpret disagreements as intentional disrespect, rather than ignorance. Our findings suggest that misaligned perceptions about the role of local labor institutions may be an important driver of conflict in foreign-owned firms.

English

Forest elephants are nocturnal and elusive animals, making it difficult to perform direct observations on them. Data on elephants’ diet and feeding habit are lacking despite most forest elephants’ habitats being lost to anthropogenic activities; yet such knowledge may be important for their conservation, particularly in a human dominated landscape.  Local ecological knowledge and field investigations were combined to assess diet composition and feeding habit of forest elephants in Campo-Ma’an landscape. The study also aimed to evaluate the level of concordance between the two approaches. The study reports that forest elephants in Campo-Ma’an feed on 87 plants species, including crops. Twenty-two of these plant species were reported by both methods, most of them being potential drivers of human-elephant conflict as they are simultaneously used by humans and elephants. Also, field investigations revealed that, to satisfy their energy requirements, forest elephants relied mostly on leaves and fruits during the wet seasons and mostly on barks from trees during the dry seasons. Overall, the two methods appeared to be complementary, despite field investigations yielding fewer species, as we only covered the park partially. We suggest that combining both methods could be a cost-efficient way to address forest elephants ecological and management questions.   Key words: Indigenous knowledge, Loxodonta cyclotis, plants species consumed, traditional knowledge.

Identifying Patterns in the Structural Drivers of Intrastate Conflict

AbstractQuantitative methods have been used to: (1) better predict civil conflict onset; and (2) understand causal mechanisms to inform policy intervention and theory. However, an exploration of individual conflict onset cases illustrates great variation in the characteristics describing the outbreak of civil war, suggesting that there is not one single set of factors that lead to intrastate war. In this article, we use descriptive statistics to explore persistent clusters in the drivers of civil war onset, finding evidence that some arrangements of structural drivers cluster robustly across multiple model specifications (such as young, poorly developed states with anocratic regimes). Additionally, we find that approximately one-fifth of onset cases cannot be neatly clustered across models, suggesting that these cases are difficult to predict and multiple methods for understanding civil conflict onset (and state failure more generally) may be necessary.

Challenging the three faces of extractivism: the Mapuche struggle and the forestry industry in Chile

ABSTRACT The Mapuche movement is among the most important social movements in post-dictatorship Chile. Since the 1990s, the Mapuche struggle has increasingly turned into a violent conflict over land usage and environmental degradation. By referring to theories of global capitalism and political ecology, we show how forestry extractivism has shaped the Mapuche struggle. Based on extensive fieldwork in the region of La Araucanía, we analyze how different forms of inequalities including social marginalization, cultural repression, and ecological inequalities have led to discontent. In reaction to this multi-dimensional discontent, the Mapuche have developed indigenous forms of ‘collective bargaining by riot’ by attacking the local extractivist network. We identify the transnational forestry industry as a major driver of conflict and discuss the limits of Chile’s extractivist model.

Forecasting change in conflict fatalities with dynamic elastic net

This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to account for the specificity of conflict drivers and processes over time and space, we model conflicts in each individual country separately. Second, we draw on an adaptive model—Dynamic Elastic Net, DynENet—which is able to efficiently select relevant predictors among a large set of covariates. We include over 700 variables in our models, adding event data on top of the data features provided by the convenors of the forecasting competition. We show that our approach is suitable and computationally efficient enough to address the complexity of conflict dynamics. Moreover, the adaptive nature of our model brings a significant added value. Because for each country our model only selects the variables that are relevant to predict conflict intensity, the retained predictors can be analyzed to describe the dynamic configuration of conflict drivers both across countries and within countries over time. Countries can then be clustered to observe the emergence of broader patterns related to correlates of conflict. In this sense, our approach produces interpretable forecasts, addressing one key limitation of contemporary approaches to forecasting.

Understanding the Nuclear Landscape in Southern Asia: Complexities and Possibilities

ABSTRACT The nuclear playground in Southern Asia is marked by an exceptional level of complexity. A number of players; their disparate thinking on how to establish deterrence; nuclear dyads that elongate into strategic chains; inter-twining of nuclear issues with conventional, space, cyber realms; disparities in military capabilities; historical animosities accentuated by unresolved territorial conflicts; divides that spawn ideologies, religions and civilizational issues; all make for an immensely complex situation. The consequent regional nuclear dynamics has fair potential for crisis and arms race instability. As a way to address the regional nuclear challenges, the paper explores the character of Pakistan–India and China–India nuclear dyads along three specific axes: drivers of conflict; points of commonalities, similarities and differences; and implications of these for their nuclear stockpiles. Armed with this understanding, it then offers some policy recommendations to address the concomitant dangers.