Identifying human–brown bear conflict hotspots for prioritizing critical habitat and corridor conservation in southwestern Iran

Abstract

AbstractMultiple studies have used species distribution models to identify human–wildlife conflict drivers. An important application of these models is spatial conflict resolution by accounting for habitat suitability and corridors. We used distribution and connectivity models to identify habitats and corridors for brown bear Ursus arctos in southwestern Iran with high risk of bear damages, and evaluated the effects of landscape composition and configuration on the predicted conflict hotspots. We used 154 locations of bear damage incidents along with a suit of predictors to develop risk models. To prepare predictive variables, we used brown bear occurrence data and a number of covariates to develop a suitability model. We then converted the suitability map into a resistance surface and used a connectivity model to predict corridors. Finally, the bear damages risk map, habitats and corridors were overlaid to prioritize conflict hotspots, corridors and habitats, and conflict‐prone corridors. Proportion of suitable habitats, distance to village, density of forest patches, conservation areas and corridor bottlenecks were the main predictors contributing to bear damages risk. A total of 38.73% of habitats, and 6.24% of corridors across the 124 000‐km2 study area were identified as areas with high risk of bear damages. The risk of bear damage was also spatially associated with forests fragmentation and patchiness of habitat. Our results highlight the importance of landscape configuration and corridors when investigating the spatial patterns of bear damages. Our findings showed how the combination of distribution models and connectivity analysis can guide carnivore conservation planning aiming at reducing the risk of carnivore‐inflicted damages.