Conditions Of Insufficient Information Research Articles

DEVELOPMENT OF AN IDEALIZED DESIGN MODEL OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE ELIMINATION OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF EMERGENCY BUILDING DESTRUCTIONS BY ABNORMAL INFLUENCES

Problem. Organizational and technological design, that is, the development of the project of construction organization and the project of execution of construction works requires the study of research materials, the state of the surrounding environment, the capabilities of the construction organization, its technical base, etc., that is, it takes a long time. If it is necessary to carry out emergency rescue work immediately after a disaster or an accident, when there is a threat to human life, there is no such time. Therefore, it is necessary to develop measures to minimize the time and risk of making ineffective decisions in conditions of insufficient information about the damaged object. Currently, there are no organizational and technological solutions that are able to simultaneously combine objective urgency and rational justification of their implementation. Increasing the efficiency and safety of works to eliminate emergency destruction, due to overtime effects on largepanel buildings, by choosing the optimal option of urgent emergency measures using information and mathematical modeling and databases on typical destruction, technical, technological and organizational solutions is an urgent technical and economic problem. Method. Optimizing the decisionmaking process in conditions of uncertainty is possible with the prior development of databases of typical organizational and technological emergency measures and the methodology of their use at typical facilities. Linking existing, predeveloped solutions using typical information and mathematical models to a specific emergency object based on the principle of pattern recognition will allow to speed up the choice of option and ensure maximum safety of emergency rescue operations, will contribute to the rescue of possible accident victims. Originality. Forecasting the consequences of overtime impacts on the loadbearing capacity and stability of largepanel buildings in the absence of initial information about the technical condition of damaged parts of the building, i.e. in conditions of uncertainty, is possible only with the help of computational mathematical models. The availability of a database of typical strengthening solutions and the availability of a calculation model will allow, with accepted probability, to quickly choose a method of strengthening emergency structures, which in conditions of uncertainty will be more justified than an emotionally accepted, subjective technical decision. Practical value. The given algorithm makes it possible to create databases of necessary measures and readymade solutions for the stabilization of a largepanel building that has been affected by overtime load. Filling the database when performing variable calculations, regarding different places of application of overtime impacts and their intensity, taking into account various structural and technological schemes, will allow to significantly speed up decisionmaking regarding the stabilization of buildings affected by overtime loads.

Improving the Verification Method for Measuring the Quality of Petroleum Products in Conditions of Insufficient Information

Improving the Verification Method for Measuring the Quality of Petroleum Products in Conditions of Insufficient Information

Розвиток парадигми РОП на основі теоретичних досліджень у сфері безпеки

The paper considers the introduction and development of the risk-based approach (RBA) para-digm. It describes the capabilities of RBA methods to categorize threats by their level of dan-ger, which allows the use of information technologies and the implementation of more efficient optimization measures. A gradual transition to the RBA paradigm from the point of view of IT development and as a way to the independent (impartial) audit of the main safety parameters has been traced. The possibilities and limitations of the existing methods are analyzed, and the trend toward the transition to adaptive security management is shown in the paper. The possibil-ities of reducing the costs of building models for determining the numerical values of risk due to the development of probabilistic structural and logical models by types of dangerous objects and productions are demonstrated. The significant potential of domestic developments concern-ing the development and implementation of a probabilistic-physical approach to the assessment of durability and reliability using probabilistic models based on DM- and DN-distribution func-tions in conditions of insufficient information on failures is described in the article. The work demonstrates the effectiveness of the transition to the modern methods of safety analysis based on the RBA paradigm in Ukraine's nuclear energy sector since the early 2000s. In this sector, thanks to the updating of development processes, safety planning measures, and government control, the damages resulting from emergency shutdowns have decreased by more than 10 times. At the same time, it has been noted that our country is lagging behind in implementing the RBA paradigm in other areas of production and life. To accelerate the implementation of RBA in a wide range of industries and spheres of life, the priority problems and tasks related to the development of IT, which require solutions in our country and all over the world, have been formulated.

DEVELOPMENT OF BUILDING INFORMATION MODELS OF THE PROCESS OF REMOTE SURVEYING OF EMERGENCY BUILDINGS USING UAVS

Purpose. The adoption of organizational and technological solutions for the elimination of the consequences of accidental destruction of buildings due to overtime effects due to military actions is based on the prompt receipt of information about the technical condition of the object, since the performance of priority emergency and rescue work immediately after a disaster or accident, when there is a threat to human life, requires the rapid adoption of such decisions in conditions of uncertainty regarding the prevention of secondary destruction. It is possible to minimize the duration of the decision-making process under conditions of uncertainty by optimizing the technology of obtaining information, that is, the survey process using automated remotely controlled aircraft in combination with building information modeling of the process of obtaining and processing information about the technical condition of the object. Methodology. Analysis and consideration of factors affecting the bearing capacity and organizational and technological features of the process of loss of strength of concrete and reinforced concrete building elements in case of detonation of an open charge on their surface, depending on the growth and fusion of microcracks under the influence of applied stresses for the compilation of an information model of dynamic destruction. The results. Based on the results of the analysis of the process of remote inspection of buildings damaged as a result of military operations using unmanned aerial vehicles, the authors developed a method of building information modeling of partial destruction of large-panel buildings due to extra-design influences. The stages of construction of the information model of the object are given. Findings. Based on the results of the analysis of the process of remote inspection of buildings damaged as a result of military operations using unmanned aerial vehicles, the authors developed a method of building information modeling of partial destruction of large-panel buildings due to extra-design influences. The stages of construction of the information model of the object are given. Originality. For the first time, a method of building information modeling of partial destruction of large-panel buildings due to extra-project influences has been developed to optimize organizational and technological solutions for strengthening structures in the centers of such destruction for the possibility of emergency rescue operations. Practical value. It consists in minimizing the duration of the decision-making process in conditions of uncertainty and the risk of ineffective decision-making in conditions of insufficient information about the object damaged as a result of extra-project impact of man-made nature.

ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN THE RELEVANT MARKET ON THE APPLIED MARKET OF EGGS AND EGG PRODUCTS ON THE BASIS OF SIMULATION MODELING

ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN THE RELEVANT MARKET ON THE APPLIED MARKET OF EGGS AND EGG PRODUCTS ON THE BASIS OF SIMULATION MODELING

Improvement of methods of hydrological forecasting using geoinformation technologies

This article discusses the possibility of improving hydrological forecasting methods based on a neural network. The hydrological series, its importance and forecasting features are considered. For hydrological forecasting using the MapInfoProfessional geoinformation system, an electronic map has been developed containing information about the rivers of Russia, as well as gauging stations on the Ob River. The electronic map is the basis for creating a module for short-term hydrological forecasting based on an artificial neural network. The features of a neural network, methods of its training and implementation are considered. The developed artificial neural network is a layer of neurons with a linear activation function and a delay line at the input. To predict the levels of hydrological series, real water levels at gauging stations of the Ob River in the Novosibirsk region will be used. The developed module and its capabilities have been tested. The study was carried out on the basis of models of hydrological series, as well as on the basis of levels of real hydrological series. Based on the study, dependence of the root-mean-square error on the number of previous values of series was revealed. The study also shows that it is possible to use a neural network for the current one-step forecasting of levels of hydrological series in conditions of insufficient information about the runoff region and its characteristics.

Evaluation of Intelligent Air Defense algorithm based on Machine Learning

In the complex and rapidly changing combat environment, the enemy interference and sensor performance limitations and other factors lead to insufficient battlefield information. In order to make the UAV have the ability to carry out threat assessment under the condition of insufficient information, a Bayesian network (BN) threat assessment modeling method based on small data sets is proposed in this paper. Starting with the two problems of BN structure learning and parameter learning under the condition of small data set, using the constraint matrix obtained by Bootstrap method as the constraint item added to the score function, a BN structure learning algorithm based on small data set is proposed, and the BN parameter learning algorithm based on interval prior constraint is adopted. The simulation results show that, compared with the traditional BN learning algorithm, the BN learning algorithm proposed in this paper has higher accuracy and availability in UAV threat assessment modeling under the condition of small data set.

Development of the GM(1,1,⊗b) model with a trapezoidal possibility function and its application

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to overcome the weakness of the traditional model, in which the grey action quantity is a real number and thus leads to a “unique solution” and to build the model with a trapezoidal possibility degree function.Design/methodology/approachUsing the system input and output block diagram of the model, the interval grey action quantity is restored under the condition of insufficient system influencing factors, and the trapezoidal possibility degree function is formed. Based on that, a new model able to output non-unique solutions is constructed.FindingsThe model satisfies the non-unique solution principle of the grey theory under the condition of insufficient information. The model is compatible with the traditional model in structure and modelling results. The validity and practicability of the new model are verified by applying it in simulating the ecological environment water consumption in the Yangtze River basin.Practical implicationsIn this study, the interval grey number form of grey action quantity is restored under the condition of insufficient system influencing factors, and the unique solution to the problem of the traditional model is solved. It is of great value in enriching the theoretical system of grey prediction models.Social implicationsTaking power consumption as an example, the accurate prediction of the future power consumption level is related to the utilization efficiency of the power infrastructure investment. If the prediction of the power consumption level is too low, it will lead to the insufficient construction of the power infrastructure and the frequent occurrence of “power shortage” in the power industry. If the prediction is too high, it will lead to excessive investment in the power infrastructure. As a result, the overall surplus of power supply will lead to relatively low operation efficiency. Therefore, building an appropriate model for the correct interval prediction is a better way to solve such problems. The model proposed in this study is an effective one to solve such problems.Originality/valueA new grey prediction model with its interval grey action quantity based on the trapezoidal possibility degree function is proposed for the first time.

Methods of Assessing the Mineral Potential in the Geographic Information Analytical System

This paper discusses the methods of assessing the mineral resource potential in the geo information system. The relevance of the research is justified by the need for comprehensive development of the mineral resource potential of any region, the development of not only balance deposits, but additional exploration and commissioning of those that currently belong to the category of off-balance. In order to assess the economic efficiency of objects of the mineral resource complex, appropriate methodological support is required. Taking into account the uniqueness of a number of deposits, in many cases the only proper method is to search for similar deposits or analogous industrial raw material objects. Calculations for similar objects can be used to assess the prospects of objects of the mineral resource base in conditions of insufficient information or lack of it necessary for the use of other calculation methods, which determined the purpose of this paper. The work is carried out with the financial support of the grant of the President of the Russian Federation no. MD-2409.2020.5.

Модель количественного оценивания агента сложной сети в условиях неполной информированности

Purpose of the article: development of a mechanism for quantitative evaluation of elements of complex information systems in conditions of insufficient information about the presence of vulnerabilities. Research method: mathematical modeling of uncertainty estimation based on binary convolution and Kolmogorov complexity. Data banks on vulnerabilities and weaknesses are used as initial data for modeling. The result: it is shown that the operation of an element of a complex network can be represented by data transformation procedures, which consist of a sequence of operations in time, described by weaknesses and related vulnerabilities. Each operation can be evaluated at a qualitative level in terms of the severity of the consequences in the event of the implementation of potential weaknesses. The use of binary convolution and universal coding makes it possible to translate qualitative estimates into a binary sequence – a word in the alphabet {0,1}. The sequence of such words — as the uncertainty function — describes the possible negative consequences of implementing data transformation procedures due to the presence of weaknesses in an element of a complex system. It is proposed to use the Kolmogorov complexity to quantify the uncertainty function. The use of a Turing machine for calculating the uncertainty function provides a universal mechanism for evaluating elements of complex information systems from the point of view of information security, regardless of their software and hardware implementation.

Using the BOW-TIE method in analysis of aerological risks of coal mines

The coal industry in Ukraine remains one of the most dangerous industries. It is characterized by a wide range of accidents and emergencies, a high level of industrial injuries and occupational morbidity. The aim of improving production safety is not only to reduce the risk of injury and occupational morbidity (cases of high probability and insignificant), but also mine accidents, which occur relatively rarely, but are characterized by much more significant consequences. It is necessary to develop and use a risk analysis method that would take into account all aspects of the occurrence and course of a possible accident and would forecast in detail the elimination of its consequences. Ukraine still does not have an comprehensive legal and methodological support for assessing and managing emergency risks, and international standards on these issues, adapted to Ukrainian conditions, are not always brought to practical use. Risk assessment, especially aerological analysis, of a coal mine is a rather complicated process associated with the use of working methods in conditions of insufficient information, there are not enough specialists familiar with the methods of expert assessment, therefore, risk assessment methods well-known abroad are not used in the coal industry of Ukraine in full measure. One of these methods is the BOW-TIE diagram, which allows to simply and visually assess the advancing of a hazard from the place of the risk occurrence to the event that causes undesirable consequences, to determine the stages at which it is necessary to take emergency measures, the nature and reliability of such measures. The article presents the methods for constructing the BOW-TIE diagrams with different level of detail, routes of hazards advancing, establishment of risk control barriers, “brainstorming” during the analysis of aerological risks in order to reduce them to the acceptable level. Examples of using the BOW-TIE diagram are given. The use of foreign developments in domestic practice indicates the promising nature of this approach and the need to continue the work with the aim of wider introduction of this method at coal enterprises in Ukraine. Key words: coal mine, aerological risk, hazard, unwanted outcome, BOW-TIE method.

Skeleton model-based product low carbon design optimization

With the diversification and customization of product design route, low-carbon design optimization has become a new method to determine the optimal product parameters. Numerical optimization is an effective tool in the analysis of engineering system. As it is crucial to analyze the behaviour of the products with the optimization of complex products, many valuable contributions are obtained. The current researches always focus on optimization design in detail design. However, at the early stage of design process, it could not be obtained with detailed information, and the rough and uncertain information is always gradual in the design process. This paper is devoted to product low carbon design optimization based on the skeleton model under the condition of insufficient information at the early design stage. After the design principle for compliant exoskeleton robotics is discussed, the parameter optimization based on skeleton model under low carbon constraints is then proposed. The exoskeleton robotics with the consideration of compliant mechanism is given as an example which demonstrates that the methodology is helpful to skeleton model-based low carbon optimization approach, which facilitates the development of customized exoskeleton robots.

RISK- ANALYSIS OF DIAGNOSTIC DIAGNOSIS DURING OPERATION OF SELF-PROPELLED LOADING CRANES OF THE ARROW TYPE

The problem of managing the safe operation of hoisting machines with an expired service life is associated with solving extremely complex interrelated tasks through a set of organizational and technical measures aimed at establishing the actual risk and economic feasibility of further operation. The most important condition in this case is the conduct of an expert examination of industrial safety and technical diagnostics, the results of which make it possible to establish the real state of hoisting machines at the current time. The safety of hoisting machines, including after the expiration of the standard service life (assigned resource), is associated with design features, workmanship, installation quality, their operation modes and a number of other factors. However, for heavily loaded hoisting machines, the main technical obstacle to safe operation is metal fatigue The results of a statistical analysis of defects detected by expert diagnosis of self-propelled boom-type cranes that have fulfilled the standard operating period are presented. The largest number of defects is associated with the destruction and wear of structural elements, the occurrence of fatigue cracks and the violation of the operating conditions of the equipment. The greatest number of defects is found in the hydraulic system of cranes, elements of the cable-block system, less often in metal construction. To conduct a risk analysis of self-propelled jib cranes in conditions of insufficient information, a methodology for expert assessments is proposed. It allows you to evaluate the impact of potential defects of self-propelled jib cranes on the amount of economic damage to the crane itself and the transported load and on the magnitude of the traumatic impact on humans. Defects and damage to the metal structures of the cranes discovered during the examinations are the result of the following combination of reasons: low quality of the metal (mild steel); unsatisfactory design; unsatisfactory quality of manufacture and installation of individual elements; environmental aggressiveness; operation of cranes in an unintended mode, poor maintenance and repair Keywords: safety, propelled jib crane, defect, expert assessment, risk analysis, diagnosis.

Development of resource distribution model of automated control system of special purpose in conditions of insufficiency of information on operational development

The paper considers the task of allocating the resources of an automated control system for special purposes in conditions of insufficient information on the development of the operational situation. The object of research is an automated control system for special purposes in the face of uncertainty in the operational environment and limited computing resources. One of the most problematic places in the distribution of resources of an automated control system is the low quality of planning, distribution and use of resources of an automated system in conditions of insufficient information about the operational situation and the inability to predict the actions of the enemy. This reduces the efficiency of both the system itself and its application. The scientific problem is solved with the help of developing a model for the distribution of system resources with the possible appearance of a lot of perturbations at the input, taking into account the features of the current operational situation in the course of the armed conflict and allows forecasting the state of the automated control system. In the course of the study, the authors of the work used the basic principles of queuing theory, automation theory, the theory of complex technical systems, as well as general scientific methods of cognition, namely analysis and synthesis. The novelty of the proposed model lies in the fact that it allows to justify the decomposition of the system. This allows to present a solution to the vector optimization problem in the binary relations of conflict, assistance and indifference. It also takes into account the operational environment and allows predicting the state of the system taking into account external influences, constructing utility functions and guaranteed payoff, as well as a numerical optimization scheme on this set. The proposed model will improve the efficiency of information processing due to its distribution and rational use of available computing resources. It is advisable to use the research results when planning the configuration of the data transmission system and at the stage of operational control of the resources of these systems.

Creation of cyber-physical systems based on basic structures in conditions of uncertainty

The article describes the processes of transformation of the basic structures of technical systems into cyber-physical systems based on the introduction of innovations. A distinctive feature of cyber-physical systems is the direct penetration of methods and means of cybernetics into controlled physical processes in order to intellectualize the system and minimize the influence of the “human factor”. The introduction of innovations occurs in conditions of insufficient information and is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Uncertainty disclosures are based on probabilistic models, fuzzy sets or using knowledge bases. The phased introduction of innovations allows for the reasonable allocation of resources. Basic structures are fundamental technological innovations, represented by functionally necessary and functionally sufficient structures of systems that control physical processes. The article describes the processes of transformation of the basic structures of systems into cyber-physical systems used in various physical environments - solid, liquid and gaseous. As examples, the automatic assembly line of printed circuit boards, the locating system for monitoring thermal networks by the method of monitoring insulation dampening, the system of catalytic neutralization of vehicle exhaust gases are considered. In these examples, the objects of activity are primary physical processes. An in-depth study of primary physical processes made it possible to obtain new informational possibilities for analyzing, interpreting and regulating the key parameters of the above systems based on computing resources.

Causality and Randomness as Objects of Perception in the Structure of Criminalistic Thinking

The author analyzes criminalistic mindset from two standpoints — as a set of guidelines and as a flexible system of tools for studying the crime incident — and notes that the process of investigating and solving crimes is represented in the cognition of the person studying it as a dynamic system developing from cause to effect. Thus, there is a transition from the a priori (fragmented) probability of evidential information to the a posteriori, reliable probability. The author stresses the importance of the analysis and synthesis mechanism of the investigator’s thinking, which allow them to avoid investigation mistakes or other distortions of information perception. Each consequence has a corresponding concrete cause, although one cause could lead to multiple consequences. Thus, the causality of a crime and the appearance of its traces are perceived in detail, i.e., the investigator studies the mechanism of how the crime was committed through the trace picture of crime consequences and chooses the most probable of all possible causes. The author points out the importance of verifying the obtained information because material information is subject to destructive physical and chemical processes, while the ideal information — to cognitive distortions of perception, memory and reproduction. However, even when the trace information is distorted, the cause-and-effect relations remain intact. The author stresses the significance of the version process in the establishment of the cause-and-effect relations. He also discusses the random factors present in the process of crime investigation and solution, which, on the one hand, have a negative impact on this process and, on the other, make it possible to resolve problem situations characterized by a lack of information. Randomness is most evident in the investigative situations of problematic or risky nature. It is noted that randomness acts as a strictly subjective feature dependent on the specifics of the criminalistic mindset of the subject of cognition, not on the features of the objective reality; the characteristics of randomness could differ at different levels of examining a problem. The author analyzes the structure of the consequences of random search as a decision-making method in the conditions of insufficient information: it is possible to continue random search, to update the version or to transform the investigative situation from the simple into the complex or vice versa.

ТЕОРЕТИКО-ИГРОВАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫХ ИНВЕСТИЦИЙ В СОЗДАНИЕ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ ОПЕРЕЖАЮЩЕГО РАЗВИТИЯ В РЕГИОНАХ МИНЕРАЛЬНО-СЫРЬЕВОЙ СПЕЦИАЛИЗАЦИИ

Historically developed and non-compliant with modern conditions, the structure of industry placement and related inequality in economic development of certain territories are additional negative factors that hinder economic development of the country. Hence, the search for new organizational forms and methods of territorial development, facilitation of industrial growth in regions with mineral resources specialization become more and more relevant. Another no less important issue is justification of economic feasibility of using such tools and assessment of critical consequences of their application. Suggested by the authors, game theory model of state investment into territories of advanced development describes the method of limited resources distribution and becomes an instrument to assess the feasibility of investment into creation of advanced development territories under the conditions of insufficient information and actions of specific interest groups. Application of the suggested game theory model of state investment into creation of advanced development territories allows to forecast behavior of program participants, to model consequences of management decisions both for government structures and separate program participants.

Aspects of program control over technological innovations with consideration of risks

The dynamic system of control of technological innovations is considered. Its dynamics is described by a vector linear discrete recurrent ratio and influenced by control parameters (controls) and an uncontrollable parameter (vector of risks or obstacles). In this case, the risks in the system of control of technological innovation will imply factors that influence negatively or catastrophically the results the processes, considered in it. To solve the problem on control over technological innovations, we proposed methods based on the construction of predictive sets – reachability regions of the considered dynamic model. These are the sets of all permissible states of a phase vector of the system at an assigned moment, correspondent to the fixed program control and to all permissible vectors of risk. This procedure is accompanied by the minimax-based method for finding a guaranteed result. Its essence is that the value of the worst (maximum) vector of possible risks is the least compared with similar values for the others at minimally guaranteed optimal control. Thus, we minimize the impact of risks in the problem of control of technological innovations, where the risks are uncontrollable parameters. This is implemented based on selection of such optimal control, which would guarantee the obtained result under the influence of any maximal risk from the set of permissible risks. The proposed method enables the development of effective numerical procedures that make it possible to implement computer modeling of dynamics of the studied problem, to form program minimax control over technological innovations and to obtain an optimal guaranteed result. The results reported here could be used for economic-mathematical modeling and for solving other problems on the optimization of data forecasting and control processes under conditions of insufficient information and in the existence of risks. In addition, the developed modeling toolset could form the basis for development of appropriate software-hardware complexes to support making effective control decisions in the innovation activity.

Оценка риска при эксплуатации самоходных грузоподъемных кранов стрелового типа в условиях недостаточной информации

Оценка риска при эксплуатации самоходных грузоподъемных кранов стрелового типа в условиях недостаточной информации

Application of spatial resource data to assist in farmland valuation

A land transaction is generally not a recurring action for most buyers and sellers, their experience and knowledge are limited, for this reason the services of property agents and valuers are sometimes used, just to get more information available. The condition of insufficient information and the inability to observe differences in land productivity gives rise to the undervaluation of good land and overvaluation of poor land. The advent of the Internet made access to comprehensive information sources easier for property agents and valuers whose critical time and resources can now be effectively managed through Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated workflow processes. This study aims to develop the blueprint for a farm valuation support system (FVSS) that assists valuers in their application of the comparable sales method by enabling them to do the following: (1) Rapid identification of the location of the subject property and transaction properties on an electronic map. (2) Comparison of the subject property with the transaction properties in terms of value contributing attributes that can be expressed in a spatial format, mainly (a) location and (b) land resource quality factors not considered in existing valuation systems that primarily focus on residential property. An algorithm, that generates an index value, was developed to allow easy comparison of the land of a subject property and that of transaction properties. This index value distinguishes the proposed FVSS from other existing property valuation systems and can therefore be used by valuers as a first approximation of a property's soil suitability, before doing further field work. The FVSS was successfully developed and tested, primarily using data obtained in the Western Cape, South Africa.