Improvement of methods of hydrological forecasting using geoinformation technologies

Abstract

This article discusses the possibility of improving hydrological forecasting methods based on a neural network. The hydrological series, its importance and forecasting features are considered. For hydrological forecasting using the MapInfoProfessional geoinformation system, an electronic map has been developed containing information about the rivers of Russia, as well as gauging stations on the Ob River. The electronic map is the basis for creating a module for short-term hydrological forecasting based on an artificial neural network. The features of a neural network, methods of its training and implementation are considered. The developed artificial neural network is a layer of neurons with a linear activation function and a delay line at the input. To predict the levels of hydrological series, real water levels at gauging stations of the Ob River in the Novosibirsk region will be used. The developed module and its capabilities have been tested. The study was carried out on the basis of models of hydrological series, as well as on the basis of levels of real hydrological series. Based on the study, dependence of the root-mean-square error on the number of previous values of series was revealed. The study also shows that it is possible to use a neural network for the current one-step forecasting of levels of hydrological series in conditions of insufficient information about the runoff region and its characteristics.