Changing Social Conditions Research Articles

Continuity of ideas of the Labor Code of the RSFSR of 1922 by Soviet and post-Soviet labor legislation

The article analyzes certain provisions of the Labor Code of 1922, which determined the vector of development of labor legislation in the period of changing political, economic and social conditions. The need for adopting the Labor Code in 1922 was caused by the transition of the Soviet state to a new economic policy. Since 1922, an accelerated process of updating labor legislation began. Some of the norms underlying the Labor Code of 1922 and the Labor Code of 1971 have been reflected and developed in the current Labor Code of the Russian Federation, e.g., the rules on terminating employment contract by parties’ agreement, differentiation in the legal regulation of labor, labor discipline, and others. The article investigates the legal position of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, which had an important impact on the development of sectoral legislation, including, on recognizing part 1 of Article 392 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation regarding the period for applying for moral damage compensation as contradicting the Constitution. Explaining the provisions of labor legislation, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation also pays attention to the enforcement of provisions on compensation for moral damage in labor disputes. The article analyzes amendments to Article 263 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation, allowing to conclude that those labor law norms continue to be updated.

In search of a European economic imaginary of competition: fifty years of the Commission’s annual reports

AbstractThe term ‘competition’ is a core notion for social and economic thinking and the organisation of markets. Nevertheless, this paper shows that there is no single acceptable economic imaginary ascribed to the notion in Europe. The search for the meaning of competition is an ongoing journey, from the EU’s very inception 60 years ago to the present day, which is inherently tied to the objectives, scope, and boundaries of EU (competition) law and to socio-economic transformations.The paper first reviews the history of the notion in both common-usage language and in legal-economic thinking. It exposes the emergence of three parallel, partly conflicting, imaginaries influencing the notion in EU competition law: Keynesian, ordoliberal, and neoliberal. After demonstrating that no single imaginary was adopted by EU primary, secondary, or soft laws, it applies Critical Discourse Analysis to the Commission’s annual reports on competition (1971–2020) in search for the meaning of competition. The paper reveals that the notion of competition had acquired one meaning in ‘hard’ contexts of the enforcement (scope of the prohibition of competition; exceptions or justifications for allowing otherwise anti-competitive behaviour), and another meaning in ‘softer’ contexts (mandates of the competition rules, and to a lesser extent – selection of enforcement priorities). While the ‘hard’ contexts have experienced a transformation from Keynesian and ordoliberal imaginary of competition to a neoliberal notion; the ‘soft’ contexts still invoke a broader notion reflecting influences from all three theories.Finally, the paper argues that although the lack of a clear definition for competition undoubtedly raises challenges relating to the rule of law, legal certainty, and uniformity, its ambiguity also serves as a powerful tool in safeguarding the durability and legitimacy of competition as an economic imaginary. It allows tailoring the notion of competition to changing legal, economic, and social conditions without a Treaty amendment.

Touristification and the Changing of Spaces for Tourism in Canggu Village

This article discusses the transformation of Canggu Village from a fishing and farmer village into an urban-characterized area with main economic activities based on tourism. The entry of capitalist investors and the government's designation of a tourism area provide more significant opportunities for this change. This study looks at how the transformation of space for the benefit of tourism causes changes in social conditions in public spaces in Canggu Village. This study used a qualitative approach through in-depth interviews with several informants, such as the head of the Canggu Village, the owner of tourism accommodations, and the Canggu farmers. This study indicates that the village of Canggu has experienced touristification marked by the establishment of accommodations built by investors supported by the local government by establishing this village as a tourism area to increase local revenue. The spaces that have changed by supporting tourism activities have ultimately changed the socio-economic order of the community from non-industrial activities to tourism-based economic activities. The new tourism climate in Canggu Village then co-opted the local community, marked by the emergence of accommodation built by the local community, such as villas, homestays, and guesthouses, as part of the changing perspective of the local community towards economic changes in Canggu Village.

A Comparative Analysis of the Institutional Quality Evaluation Processes in Turkish, European, and American Higher Education Systems

Changing economic, cultural, political, and social conditions worldwide have a big impact on higher education. Under the influence of changing conditions, the functional scope of higher education institutions has expanded and new functions have been added. In addition to these changes, the demand for higher education institutions is increasing day by day in terms of education, research, and service to society. The expanding functions of higher education and its deepening impact on society call for quality activities of higher education institutions. Therefore, institutional quality evaluation processes are carried out in higher education institutions. This study aims to analyze and compare institutional quality evaluation processes applied in Turkish, European, and American higher education systems. The findings obtained are important as they will contribute to the Higher Education Quality Council of Türkiye, quality commissions in higher education institutions, and other researchers who will conduct scientific studies on this subject. It is a descriptive and qualitative study whose sample consists of institutional quality evaluation agencies from Türkiye, England, Norway, Finland, and the United States of America. The data in the study were collected and analyzed by applying the document analysis method. The findings indicate that institutional external evaluation or audit models are used in Türkiye, England, Norway, and Finland while an institutional accreditation system is used in the USA. Although the quality evaluation processes applied are generally similar in terms of basic objectives, assessed dimensions, assessment approach, people involved in the implementation of the assessment, and assessment type, there are differences in aspects such as the management, coordination, and recognition practices of the countries’ higher education systems. Taking into account national circumstances, the institutional quality evaluation processes in the Turkish higher education system should be organized and implemented in a systematic way to ensure quality higher educational practice.

Land use change in suburban zone: European context of urban sprawl

Quantifying and understanding global land use change and its spatial and temporal dynamics is critical to supporting international policy debates. The main area of transformation of spatial structures nowadays are suburban areas of the largest cities. Constant land development and urbanization, including such forms as urban sprawl, influence significant changes in land use. The aim of this study was to analyse a land use change pattern in a selected rural area which is under pressure of spatial development of a regional city. Data used for a land use change detection was based opensource Urban Atlas dataset for 2006, 2012, and 2018, enriched by recent update from 2021 orthophoto map. Spatial analyses presenting statistics of land use change were conducted in QGIS. Besides analysis of land use change, the paper discusses observed spatial patterns also taking into account changing social, environmental and economic conditions and spatial policies influencing land cover complexity. Understanding these dynamics would help better spatial management of real estates for more sustainable land development.

The Balance of the Constitution

Abstract: The idea of balance in constitutional thought helps to illuminate what it is to be governed well. The article considers the idea of balance, beginning with John Finnis’s engagement with Gibbon’s Decline and Fall, and argues that the well-balanced constitution is stable rather than static, tempering public authority, which is to say disciplining and strengthening it. Anglo-American history confirms that the balance of a constitution is likely to change over time, not only because of unconstitutional action but also because of lawful exercise of power or changes in social and political conditions. In some cases, the balance may be lost, and may need now to be restored; in other cases, a new balance may have been struck. The article reflects on the institutional arrangements that characterize a well-balanced constitution, making clear the contribution that independent courts make (and the risks that misuse of judicial power may pose) and the importance of intelligently coordinating executive and legislative power. The people have a share in constitutional government, which requires a spirit of moderation and is put in doubt if the constitution is insulated from deliberate change.

The Fabric of Resistance: Textile Workshops and the Rise of Rebellious Landscapes in Colonial Peru

This monograph uncovers the fascinating story of the textile workshop (obraje) in Pomacocha, located in the Ayacucho region, Peru. After its foundation in 1689, the workshop developed into a thriving hub of textile production fueling the vibrant cross-Andean cloth trade. More than a hundred working families lived in Pomacocha, subjugated to the colonial regimes of debt slavery, forced labor, bondage, and prison labor. The Fabric of Resistance is a compelling, rich, and provocative study, based on a wide range of evidence and a dazzling mix of methods—ranging from archaeological analysis, political geography, social network analysis, archival research, and demographic studies to spatial analysis. The volume situates textile production at the heart of processes of identity formation in the colonial Andes. The obraje, Hu shows, was the arena where identities, communities, and social cohesion took on shape, and where colonial rule, as well as opposition, got negotiated. The volume knots together the history of labor, resistance, race, and colonialism, narrated through the lens of the changing social conditions of textile production.

Freedom as Social and Philosophical Category (Comparative Analysis of Alash Intellectuals’ Ideas and Philosophy of French Existentialists J.P. Sartre and A. Camus)

This article defines approaches to understanding freedom as a social and philosophical category through the spectacle of Kazakh intellectuals of Alash Party and existentialist philosophers from France (A. Camus, J.P. Sartre), performs the comparison and comparative analysis of understanding the phenomenon of freedom. In the history of philosophical thought, the concept of freedom underwent a long evolution; it was a subject of deep scientific sensemaking. This scientific interest has persisted up to the present day. From the research point of view, we obtain not only means helping to make possible a deeper understanding of the phenomenon of freedom, but also an opportunity to understand our modern world. The ideological inspirer, the leader of the Alash party was Alikhan Bukeykhan. This is an outstanding personality in the history of our state, due to him and other representatives of the Kazakh intellectuals; the foundation of independence was laid. Philosophical concepts of French existentialists, J.P. Sartre and A. Camus, in the context of freedom problem cause deep research interest since they not only consider the essence of human freedom but also aspects of freedom manifestations under conditions of social changes.

Universities of the Third Age in Warmia and Mazury during the COVID-19 pandemic as local lifelong education centers

In social sciences, especially in educational sciences, it is emphasized that a lifelong education meaning lifelong learning, refers to the acquisition of knowledge throughout a person's life. It is a concept that combines many different formats of learning including both elements of adult education, lifelong learning, self-education as well as the promotion of the ideal of an individual who fully realizes their potential, both personal and professional. One of the forms of implementation of this concept of education are Universities of the Third Age (UTA), which focus primarily on the development and activation of elderly people. The article focuses on the specificity of continuing education in the functioning of the University of the Warmia and Mazury during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The presented text was prepared based on the analysis of research material collected through semi-directed, problem-focused interviews and foundational databases – primarily at hand, traditional and electronic archives of the UTAs in Warmia and Mazury and digital reports of the Marshal's Office in Olsztyn. The research presented in this article shows that the changing social and health conditions posed new challenges to the universities and caused the need to revise the existing curricula, forms and ways of transferring knowledge and practical skills. During the pandemic Warmia and Mazury UTAs didn`t cease contact with their students and did not renounce continuing education. The period of isolation contributed to an increase in digital competence of the UTA students and digitization of continuing education.

LEGAL INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF PUBLIC GOVERNANCE WITHIN RECENT SOCIAL TRANSFORMATIONS

The article substantiates the expediency of applying the neoinstitutional approach to the study of legal institutionalization processes under the conditions of social changes, defines the role of legal institutionalization in public governance considering some factors promoting or, on the contrary, hinder effectiveness of legal institutions. The neo-institutional approach is a relevant methodological basis for the study of the development of the legal system under the conditions of social transformations and reforming of state administration. In the concept of formal institutionalization, legal institutionalization means the formation of new legal institutions, the formalization of certain social relations and social ties. However, revealing the essence of legal institutionalization from the formal side is far from the only approach related to the perception of institutionalization as a law-making phenomenon. In opposition to the concept of formalization, ideas about the decisive role of the substantive component in the institutional process are put forward. According to this theory, the creation of legal institutions does not depend on their formal recognition by the legislator. This actually means that legal institutions are formed and developed in parallel with regulative legal acts, but the form of law is not perceived as an indicator of the existence of one or another institution. The basis of institutionalization is the legal relation itself which is combined into certain types based on systemic features In connection to the expansion of the essence of legal regulation, the purpose of legal institutionalization has changed. As a result, it is possible to explain the emergence of numerous institutions which do not have any formal legal consolidation. In order to understand the nature and logic of the development of institutions, it is necessary to study the factors that guide society, citizens, and social groups in their actions, that is, to study institutions. The success of institutionalization mainly depends on national specifics and the state of socio-economic development of the country. The article has a theoretical-methodological character, and the material presented in it can be the basis for the study of legal institutionalization in various spheres of public administration.

Geleneksel Sokak Karakterini Oluşturan Fiziksel Bileşenlerin Bahtiyar Yokuşu ve Hacı Osman Sokak Üzerinden Değerlendirilmesi

Hızlı nüfus artışı, sanayileşme, sosyal yaşam koşullarındaki değişimler, bilinçsiz müdahale ve restorasyonlar, koruma amaçlı imar planlarının yetersiz olması ve hızlı teknolojik gelişmeler kentlerde bir kimlik kargaşasının oluşmasına yol açmaktadır. Bu kontrolsüz kentleşme ve yenidünya şartlarına uyum sağlama çabası sonucunda kentlerin mekânsal kimliğini yansıtan dokularda tahribatlar yaşanmaktadır. Buna bağlı olarak kentlerimizin geleneksel sokak dokuları da bozulma eğilimine girmektedir. Kahramanmaraş’ın geleneksel sokaklarında da bu bozulma gözlenebilir. Son yıllarda kimlik kavramının gündemde olması ile, yerel yönetimlerin kentlerin tarihini canlandırmak üzere yaptıkları çalışmalarda bir artış söz konusudur. Bu durum, geleneksel kentsel mekân ve konutların koruma ve onarım çalışmalarına görsel ve kültürel açıdan daha anlaşılabilir olmasını sağlayan diğer fiziksel bileşenlerin dâhil edilmesi gerekliliğini arttırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışma, Kahramanmaraş’ın geleneksel sokaklarının en belirgin iki örneği olan Bahtiyar Yokuşu ve Hacı Osman Sokak karakterlerinin oluşumuna katkıda bulunan fiziksel bileşenlerin ve niteliklerinin belirlenmesi üzerine kurgulanmıştır. Çalışmanın yöntemi üç aşamadan oluşmaktadır. Öncelikle çalışma kapsamında, sokakların karakterini belirleyen fiziksel bileşenler hakkında detaylı bir literatür taraması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu taramalarda, konut-avlu/bahçe-sokak düzeninin geleneksel sokak karakterini oluşturan bileşenler arasında en dışavurumcu unsurlar olduğu ortaya çıkmaktadır. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında, araştırma alanının fiziksel bileşenlerinin nitelik ve nicelikleri belirlenmiştir. Son aşamada ise, geleneksel sokak dokusuna katkıda bulunan fiziksel bileşenlerin ilişkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Kahramanmaraş’ın geleneksel sokak dokusunu tarihi konutlar şekillendirmekte olup bu dokuyu karakterize eden en önemli fiziksel bileşenin ise kapı (%86) olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Examining the Relationship between High School Students' Lifelong Learning Tendencies and Problem Solving Self-Appraisal

Lifelong learning, which is an uninterrupted learning approach, means that individuals learn to adapt to changing social, cultural, technological, or economic conditions, and thus advance their lives. Educating individuals as lifelong learners for their equal participation in society is an important educational ideal. For these reasons, it is important to investigate the variables that will facilitate individuals to adopt lifelong learning. The study aimed to reveal experimental results about how positive self-appraisal in problem solving will create a motivation on lifelong learning tendency. In this study conducted on high school students, it was first examined whether the change in perceptions of problem solving and lifelong learning differed according to gender, and then the relationship between these two variables was aimed to be revealed. This study offers important implications about the effect of problem-solving self-appraisal on lifelong learning disposition. According to the findings, individuals with high problem-solving self-evaluation are more inclined toward lifelong learning.

The Language Origin Paradigms: Conceptual Typologies, Results Accumulation, and Theoretical Perspectives

Studies of the origin and early evolution of language are undergoing rapid development. New directions, topics and methods of research are appearing. It becomes necessary to structure the research field, as the formation of a single space of intellectual attention contributes to a more productive communication between different groups of scientists, better mutual understanding, and strengthened arguments. The article proposes the grounds for typologizing the concepts of the origin of language and identifies three main paradigms on the basis of these typologies. The sharpest disputes are between Continualism (“human language is only quantitatively different from animal language”) and Saltationism (“human language is so fundamentally different from the communicative systems of animals, that it could only appear as a result of some amazing leap or unique mutation”). Continualists usually focus on the communicative and cognitive abilities of different species (with a clear preference for apes). Saltationists focus on the linguistic, mental and cognitive structures of humans. Both of these polar approaches are opposed by the Multistage ecosocial paradigm, which emphasizes a long, multistep process of glottogenesis with behavioral adaptations of hominid groups to the changing natural and social conditions of their existence. A list of the most plausible, theoretically substantiated propositions is given, as well as research results supported by a variety of circumstantial data. The theoretical and methodological perspectives of the multistage ecosocial paradigm related to overcoming from its drawbacks are presented. A generalizing conceptual framework corresponding to the basic principles of evolution, the laws of social interaction should be constructed. The extremely heterogeneous arsenal of methods should also be structured in a single scientific logic.

Perbandingan Uang Digital Sebelum dan Selama Masa Pandemi

Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, economic resilience has become a concern for the government and entrepreneurs as well as the community or households. Changes in the order of life during the pandemic are strongly influenced by restrictions on the movement (mobility) of the community in various sectors. There are several factors that influence people's decisions in carrying out economic activities, namely price perception, quality of goods, Self Confidence environmental influences, lifestyle, psycho demographic, psycho sociological, Family Scope, and Social Environment. Changes in psychological and social conditions are the biggest variables influencing purchasing decisions. The purpose of this study was to determine the development of the number of instruments and the value of electronic money transactions during the pandemic. Methodology The analysis uses a descriptive approach and a two sample t-test. The sample is data on the number of instruments and the value of electronic money transactions for 48 months. This study concludes that during the 24 months before the pandemic and 24 months during the pandemic, the average number of electronic money instruments and the value of electronic money transactions is not the same, so it can be concluded that there are differences in the number of instruments and the transaction value.

Correlation with the protection of the authority of criminal judging and social evaluation

Aim: The protection of the authority of the judges is especially relevant today, when the number of threats and other activities seem to be increasing in order to influence the judicial decisions as well as criticize severely the decisions already made by the judges. In addition to the critics of judgments which either go beyond the expression of opinion or not, derogatory, disparaging and defamatory statements occur very often insulting the judges and their work. The question is whether the available legal instruments are sufficient enough to take legal actions against these morally unacceptable or even illegal conducts. The aim of our study is to investigate and explore the relationships between the protection of the authority of criminal justice and social value judgements.Methodology: In addition to formulating thoughts and considerations from the field of the philosophy of law, our conclusions are based on the Act XC of 2017 on the Code of Criminal Procedure.Findings: We started from the basic statement that criminal case-law considered as a legal service to ensure law and order requires social acceptance. However, it can only be guaranteed if moral values and expectations were fulfilled and the “moral ideals” of the society were truly realized. To make it happen, the judge hearing a specific case sometimes should, remaining strictly within the legal framework, depart from the established and uniform case-law in order to adhere to the moral values he or she professes. It reflects partly the fact that courts do necessarily serve social policy goals as well.Value: We thrived to reveal the fact that public trust in the courts is a fundamental interest of both the courts themselves and the citizens. But to strengthen and deepen that trust certain efforts have to be made even by the judiciary. Everything must be done in order that courts can respond appropriately to the developments and changes in social conditions and needs but, from time to time, unique cases might as well emerge when the recognition that social critique actually reflects the critique of the law should be articulated more distinctively.

Physical Eschatology: On the Nature of "the New Heavens and the New Earth"

For centuries, Christian believers have endured hardships and persecution with the hope of an eschatological transformation of life as we know it. While on this Earth we experience pain, suffering and death, the Bible speaks of a future transformation of physical reality, a “new heaven and a new earth” (Rev 21:1). However, how should Christians interpret this expression? Is it a physical description of the new universe? Or is it a reference to a change in political, social or spiritual conditions of society as a whole? How does this expression appear in the Old Testament and how is it used by New Testament writers? This article focuses on these questions and points to the intertextual elements between both Testaments while searching for a coherent interpretation of that emblematic expression.

The Construction of Inheritance Law Reform in Indonesia: Questioning the Transfer of Properties through Wasiat Wājibah to Non-Muslim Heirs

This article examines the construction of inheritance law reform in the transfer of properties through wasiat wājibah to non-Muslim heirs. Questioning the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court which makes wasiat wājibah as an alternative in giving inheritance rights to heirs who are prevented from getting an inheritance due to religious differences (non-Muslims). This study is an empirical legal study that examines the decisions of the Supreme Court relating to the transfer of inheritance to non-Muslims. The study concludes that in terms of inheritance law reform is an alternative in changing Islamic law that must be carried out in response to changes in community social conditions. The construction of inheritance law reform in judicial decisions has formulated inheritance law by giving inheritance rights to heirs of different religions (non-Muslims) by means of wasiat wājibah . The jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of the Republic of Indonesia has expanded Article 209 of the Compilation of Islamic Law by adding parties who can receive a wasiat wājibah, including heirs who are prevented from inheriting due to religious differences. The construction of inheritance law reform on the transfer of inheritance properties with wasiat wājibah in the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of the Republic of Indonesia has exceeded the quantitative limit in granting wasiat wājibah. The impression does not pay attention to the signs in the application of wasiat wājibah by ignoring the maximum limit. Wasiat wājibah as a solution is not unacceptable as inheritance law reform but must still guide the legal media used by considering the basic rules that surround it.

Parent-offspring cannibalism throughout the animal kingdom: a review of adaptive hypotheses.

Parents that kill and consume their offspring often appear to be acting against their own reproductive interests. Yet parent-offspring cannibalism is common and taxonomically widespread across the animal kingdom. In this review, I provide an overview of our current understanding of parent-offspring cannibalism, which has seen a proliferation in adaptive hypotheses over the past 20 years for why parents consume their own young. I review over four decades of research into this perplexing behaviour, drawing from work conducted on fishes, reptiles, insects, birds, and mammals among other taxa. Many factors have been hypothesised to explain parent-offspring cannibalism in nature, including poor parental energy reserves, small or large brood sizes, low or uncertain parentage, and high brood densities, and additional factors are still being uncovered. Parent-offspring cannibalism does not appear to have a single predominant explanation; rather, the factor, or set of factors, that govern its expression is largely taxon specific. Parents may either consume all offspring under their care (full-brood cannibalism) or consume a fraction of their offspring (partial brood cannibalism). These forms of cannibalism are thought to provide adaptive benefits to cannibals under a range of circumstances, primarily by allowing parents to allocate parental efforts more optimally - energy from eating (some of) one's current offspring can be redirected to other offspring, or to parental growth, survival, and ultimately to other future reproductive endeavours. Thus, parent-offspring cannibalism is a phenotypically plastic trait that responds to changing environmental, social, and physiological conditions. The expression of parent-offspring cannibalism in any given system is intimately linked to the reproductive value of current young relative to parents' expectations for future reproduction, and also to whether parental care is predominantly depreciable or non-depreciable. Furthermore, parent-offspring cannibalism has the potential to generate conflict between the sexes, and I briefly discuss some consequences of this conflict on patterns of mate choice. Finally, there still remain many aspects of this behaviour where our understanding is poor, and I highlight these topics to help guide future research.

Differences in Time Perspectives Measured under the Dramatically Changing Socioeconomic Conditions during the Ukrainian Political Crises in 2014/2015.

The characteristics of the individual’s time perspective in relation to changes in social, economic, and political conditions are of major conceptual interest. We assessed the time orientations of 1588 Ukrainian students living in two different regions (western and south-eastern Ukraine) with the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI) before (2010–2013) and during (2014–2016) the socioeconomic, political, and military crises which started in 2014, eight years before the war in 2022. We applied ANOVAs with the ZTPI dimensions as dependent variables and the period of testing (precrisis, postcrisis) as an independent variable for the two Ukrainian regions separately. The time perspectives of residents in the region most distant from the war zone (western), who positively assessed the change in the political situation around 2014, increased in the future time orientation and decreased in the present-fatalistic, past-positive, and 333 present-hedonistic time orientations. The time perspectives of residents in the regions closest to the war zone (southeastern) decreased in the future and increased in the past-negative and present-fatalistic time orientations, reflecting their negative judgments of the events. It is not the crisis itself, but the specific social, economic, and political factors and evaluations which define the time perspectives, which are flexible and adjust to changes during extreme life circumstances.

Analyzing How the Social Security Reserve Fund in Spain Affects the Sustainability of the Pension System

Faced with the need to adjust public pension systems to meet changing demographic, economic and social conditions, most developed countries have created government reserve funds to ensure macroeconomic sustainability. This paper aims to study the importance that this reserve fund plays in the sustainability of the Spanish public pension system. Using data for the 2000 to 2019 period (20 observations) on the main variables impacting on the system, we calculate probabilities and other indicators of its unsustainability in relation to the reserve fund. Our model accurately reflects certain aspects of the data, and suggests that the probability of unsustainability is inversely associated with the size of the reserve fund, but that this relation is moderated by the heterogeneity of the members of the pension system. Moreover, the probability of unsustainability increases in line with the pension system deficit, the time elapsed until unsustainability is reached is shorter when the Reserve Fund balance falls, and the size of this fund at which the system becomes unsustainable diminishes with the probability of unsustainability.