Conditional Symmetric Instability Research Articles

A Case Study on the Convection Initiation Mechanisms of an Extreme Rainstorm over the Northern Slope of Kunlun Mountains, Xinjiang, Northwest China

Extreme precipitation events have been occurring frequently worldwide, and their causative factors and convection initiation (CI) mechanisms have been attracting more and more attention in recent years. As a comprehensive study on the CI mechanisms of extreme rainstorms over the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains (KLM), Xinjiang, based on both observational and high tempo-spatial numerical simulation, the major findings of this work are as follows: A cold pool (CP) was formed in the northwestern Tarim Basin under the influence of early precipitation evaporation, and it moved towards the northern slope of the KLM several hours before the CI. With the movement of the CP, a significant vertical temperature gradient was formed close to the leading edge of the CP, thereby enhancing local convective instability (up to ~10 PVU). In addition, the vertical shear of the horizontal winds at the leading edge of the CP led to a notable increase in the baroclinic component of moist potential vorticity, thus reinforcing the local conditional symmetric instability (up to ~8 PVU), providing another important unstable energy for the CI. In addition, the combined effect of the convergent lifting of a boundary layer jet (BLJ, the maximum wind speed below 1 km exceeding 10 m s−1) and the significant frontogenetical forcing (up to ~100 × 10−8 K m−1 s−1) at the leading edge of the CP were the causes of the release of the unstable energies. Further analysis of the frontogenetical forcing associated with the CP indicates that the convergence (up to ~2 × 10−3 s−1), diabatic heating and slantwise terms (indicates the baroclinicity and inhomogeneity of the vertical momentum in horizontal direction) were the major contributors, whereas the deformation term at the leading edge of the CP provided a relatively weaker contribution.

Occurrence of heavy precipitation influenced by solar wind high-speed streams through vertical atmospheric coupling

A tendency of heavy rainfall-induced floods in Canada to follow arrivals of solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs) from coronal holes is observed. Precipitation events during the winter, including extreme freezing rain events in the province of New Brunswick, also tend to occur following HSSs. More direct evidence is provided using the satellite-based gridded precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) in the superposed epoch analysis of high-rate precipitation. The results show an increase in the high-rate daily precipitation occurrence over Canada following arrivals of major HSSs. This is consistent with previously published results for other mid-latitude geographic regions. The ERA5 meteorological reanalysis is used to evaluate the slantwise convective available potential energy (SCAPE) that is of importance in the development of storms. The role of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling, mediated by globally propagating aurorally excited atmospheric gravity waves releasing the conditional symmetric instability in the troposphere leading to convection and precipitation, is proposed.

Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting jet activity from observations and model data

Strong surface winds in Storm <i>Eunice</i>. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting jet activity from observations and model data

Impact of Cyclone‐Cyclone Interaction on Lake‐Effect Snowbands: A False Alarm

AbstractIn this study, the impacts of two cyclone interactions with the environmental flow and with each other on a heavy winter snowfall event over the Great Lakes region are examined by applying a recently‐developed diagnostic tool to a lake‐effect snowstorm. This winter snowfall event was a false alarm by the Canadian operational model, in which the predicted lake‐effect snowfall at the lee side of Lake Erie doubles the observed. The false alarm involves the interactions of two cyclones, whose relative locations are poorly predicted, leading to inaccurate prediction of their induced winds and interactions over Lake Erie at both low and upper levels. In particular, at 1,000 hPa, the cyclone‐induced winds and their interactions over Lake Erie caused colder and drier air over warm‐moist open‐water lake surface that is favorable for more latent heat flux deriving from the lake in the model than in the real atmosphere. At 500 hPa, the location errors of the model predicted cyclones reversed the cyclone‐induced winds over Lake Erie from mainly southerly to northerly, especially during the intense snowfall period. An analysis of the conditional symmetric instability (CSI) index over Lake Erie reveals that the operational model systematically over‐predicts CSI, more significantly during the intense snowfall period. As a result, the operational model prediction makes a false alarm of a lake‐effect snowfall event with large errors in precipitation intensity. Future improvements in operational model predictions are also suggested.

Case Study of Mesoscale Precipitation Areas within the Comma Head of an Extratropical Cyclone

On 12–13 February 2016, a record-breaking rain–snow event during the passage of an extratropical cyclone occurred in Shandong Province, China, in which the 24 h precipitation totals at 48 of 123 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province broke their historical records for the month of February, and a further 25 stations recorded their second-largest February totals. This paper investigates the evolution of the mesoscale precipitation areas and the mechanisms responsible for the formation, organization, and maintenance of the mesoscale precipitation areas, using FY-2G satellite data, Doppler radar observations, and a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model numerical simulation at 4 km grid spacing. The main results show that the comma head cloud of the cyclone developed from four echo strips. Intense precipitation was related to the mesoscale elongated precipitation areas (EPAs) of reflectivity &gt;30 dBZ within the stratiform clouds. The formation and development of the EPAs coincided with the activities of a low-level shear line and an associated increase in frontogenesis. The simulated EPAs occurred in an environment of conditional instability (CI), inertial instability (II), and conditional symmetric instability (CSI). In the initial stage of the elongated rainfall areas (ERAs), rainfall was initiated by the frontal forcing in the presence of elevated CI, and II was generated by upright convection. During the development stage of the ERAs, the CI was absent, and condensational heating was enhanced. II occurred in the absence of upright convection, and it seems likely that the presence of II is a diabatic signature of the precipitation itself. Upper-level II intensified the convective systems by enhancing outflow aloft, and II caused the ERAs to organize. Thus, II played an important role in the organization and maintenance of the ERAs. The frontogenesis provided the dynamic condition for the release of the instability. Enhanced CSI and II intensified slantwise convection, and combining with enhanced frontogenesis, intensified the ERAs. The echo, ascent, and frontogenesis in snowfall areas were weaker than those in rainfall areas.

The Severe Multi-Day October 2019 Snow Storm Over Southern Manitoba, Canada

ABSTRACT A devastating storm struck southern Manitoba, Canada on 10–13 October 2019, producing a large region of mainly sticky and wet snow. Accumulations reached 75 cm, wind gusts exceeded 100 km h−1, and surface temperature (T) remained near 0°C (−1°C ≤ T ≤ 1°C) for up to 88 h. It produced the largest October snowfall and was the earliest to produce at least 20 cm since 1872 in Winnipeg. These factors led to unparalleled damage and power restoration challenges for Manitoba Hydro and, with leaves still largely on vegetation, the most damaging storm to Winnipeg’s trees ever recorded. The storm’s track was uncommon, and produced elevated convection related to buoyancy-driven instability and conditional symmetric instability (CSI), with a moist absolutely unstable layer (MAUL) near 500 hPa. Instabilities were released via lift through lower-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenesis, differential cyclonic vorticity advection, and jet streak dynamics. Precipitation bands, elevated convection, and lake effect snow bands enhanced local snowfall. Snow adhering to structures was not always wet but, when present, it sometimes occurred because of incomplete freezing of particles partially melted aloft in a near-surface (<100 m deep) inversion. Although other storms over the historical record have produced a similar combination of severe precipitation, temperature and wind conditions, none have done this for such a long period.

A Parameterization of Slantwise Convection in the WRF Model

Abstract In this study, we introduce a parameterization scheme for slantwise convection (SC) to be considered for models that are too coarse to resolve slantwise convection explicitly (with a horizontal grid spacing coarser than 15 km or less). This SC scheme operates in a locally defined 2D cross section perpendicular to the deep-layer-averaged thermal wind. It applies momentum tendency to adjust the environment toward slantwise neutrality with a prescribed adjustment time scale. Condensational heating and the associated moisture loss are also considered. To evaluate the added value of the SC scheme, we implement it in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to supplement the existing cumulus parameterization schemes for upright convection and test for two different numerical setups: a 2D idealized, unforced release of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) in an initially conditionally stable environment, and a 3D real-data precipitation event containing both CSI and conditional instability along the cold front of a cyclonic storm near the United Kingdom. Both test cases show significant improvements for the coarse-gridded (40-km) simulations when parameterizing slantwise convection. Compared to the 40-km simulations with only the upright convection scheme, the counterparts with the additional SC scheme exhibit a larger extent of CSI neutralization, generate a stronger grid-resolved slantwise circulation, and produce greater amounts of precipitation, all in better agreement with the corresponding fine-gridded reference simulations. Given the importance of slantwise convection in midlatitude weather systems, our results suggest that there exist potential benefits of parameterizing slantwise convection in general circulation models.

Sensitivities of slantwise convection dynamics to model grid spacing under an idealized framework

AbstractAlthough the release of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) by slantwise convection is recognized as an important baroclinic process, the basic dynamics of these circulations and their representation in numerical models remain inadequately understood. To address this issue, a series of 2D idealized experiments of pure slantwise convection are performed in an initially statically stable environment using the non‐hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model, with the horizontal grid lengths varying between 1 and 40 km. The results show that the larger‐scale feedbacks of the slantwise convection converge numerically when a cross‐band grid length (∆y) of 5 km is reached. The differences between the non‐converged and converged results tie closely to the release of a shallow layer of conditional instability that inevitably accompanies the early development of the slantwise circulation due to differential advection of saturation equivalent potential temperature (). The resolved small‐scale upright convection embedded within the slantwise band can energize the horizontal acceleration of the slantwise band at mid‐to‐upper levels by transporting low geostrophic momentum upward that results in localized inertial instability. The convective cell also enhances the large‐scale CSI neutralization by advecting high downward with strong downdraughts that orient more vertically than coarser‐gridded runs. Moreover, ∆y ≤ 5 km also better resolves the horizontal pressure gradients for cross‐band motions. This work suggests that global/climate numerical weather prediction models may not adequately resolve important characteristics of slantwise convection. As most cumulus schemes target only upright convection, the inclusion of parametrized slantwise convection may improve their performance.

Near-Surface Frontogenesis and Atmospheric Instability along the U.S. East Coast during the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Abstract Hurricane Matthew locally generated more than 400 mm of rainfall on 8–9 October 2016 over the eastern Carolinas and Virginia as it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. The heaviest precipitation occurred along a swath situated up to 100–200 km inland from the coast and collocated with enhanced low-tropospheric frontogenesis. Analyses from version 3 of the Rapid Refresh (RAPv3) model indicate that rapid frontogenesis occurred over eastern North and South Carolina and Virginia on 8 October, largely over a 12-h time period between 1200 UTC 8 October and 0000 UTC 9 October. The heaviest rainfall in Matthew occurred when and where spiral rainbands intersected the near-surface front, which promoted the lift of conditionally unstable, moist air. Parallel to the spiral rainbands, conditionally unstable low-tropospheric warm, moist oceanic air was advected inland, and the instability was apparently released as the warm air mass rose over the front. Precipitation in the spiral rainbands intensified on 9 October as the temperature gradient along the near-surface front rapidly increased. Unlike in Hurricane Floyd over the mid-Atlantic states, rainfall totals within the spiral rainbands of Matthew as they approached the near-surface front evidently were not enhanced by release of conditional symmetric instability. However, conditional symmetric instability release in the midtroposphere may have enhanced rainfall 200 km northwest of the near-surface front. Finally, although weak cold-air damming occurred prior to heavy rainfall, damming dissipated prior to frontogenesis and did not impact rainfall totals.

Assessment of Conditional Symmetric Instability from Global Reanalysis Data

Abstract Slantwise convection, the process by which moist symmetric instability is released, has often been linked to banded clouds and precipitation, especially in frontal zones within extratropical cyclones. Studies also suggest that the latent heat release associated with slantwise convection can lead to a spinup of surface frontogenesis, which can enhance the rapid intensification of extratropical cyclones. However, most of these studies considered only local areas or short time durations. In this study, we provide a novel statistical investigation of the global climatology of the potential occurrence of slantwise convection, in terms of conditional symmetric instability, and its relationship with precipitating systems. Using the 6-hourly ERA-Interim, two different indices are calculated, namely, slantwise convective available potential energy (SCAPE) and vertically integrated extent of realizable symmetric instability (VRS), to assess the likelihood of occurrence of slantwise convection around the globe. The degree of association is quantified between these indices and the observed surface precipitation as well as the cyclone activity. The susceptibility of midlatitude cyclones to slantwise convection at different stages of their life cycle is also investigated. As compared to the nonexplosive cyclone cases, the time evolution of SCAPE and VRS within rapidly deepening cyclones exhibit higher values before, and a more significant drop after, the onset of rapid intensification, supporting the idea that the release of symmetric instability might contribute to the intensification of storms.

Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: a review

This article reviews the current state of knowledge of sting jets (SJs) in extratropical cyclones. SJs were formally identified in 2004 by the pioneering work of Keith Browning. Reviewing this and subsequent studies, we define the SJ as a coherent air flow that descends from mid‐levels inside the cloud head into the frontal‐fracture region of a Shapiro–Keyser cyclone over a period of a few hours leading to a distinct region of near‐surface stronger winds. It therefore lies above the cold conveyor belt during some stage of its life, but, at least in some cases, descends to reach the top of boundary layer ahead of the cold conveyor belt. It is not attributed to a specific mechanism in this definition. We conclude that it is likely that a continuum of SJ descent and speed‐up mechanisms exists. At one extreme is balanced descent partly associated with frontolysis in the frontal‐fracture region. More horizontally small‐scale and stronger frontolytic descent may occur associated with weak stability to slantwise convective downdraughts. Instability to slantwise convective downdraughts may occur in some systems, leading to multiple slantwise convective downdraughts associated with the release of conditional symmetric instability and even, possibly, symmetric instability. The global climatology of SJs and the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and SJs are revealed as specific areas where more research is needed. Finally, we describe eight myths and misunderstandings that exist in the current literature with the aim of guiding future research into the SJ phenomenon.

Multiscale Dynamics of the February 11-12, 2010, Deep South US Snowstorm Event

This study investigates the synoptic/mesoscale dynamics responsible for an unusually heavy southern US snowstorm that occurred on February 11-12, 2010, using reanalysis, observations, and numerical simulations. This record breaking snowfall event represents an example of multiple upper level and low-level jets (LLJs) and their accompanying baroclinic zones. The analysis reveals the following synoptic scale processes as significant contributors: (1) upper level jet splitting and merging, (2) advection of cold arctic air at low levels by a large anticyclone, and (3) an incoming upper level shortwave trough. In addition to the synoptic scale processes, the following mesoscale features played a major role in this snowstorm event: coexisting potential (convective) instability and conditional symmetric instability, terrain blocking, and a double LLJ development process. Sensitivity experiments including (1) limiting the orographic effects of elevated plateau in Texas and the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico by reducing the terrain height to 225 meters, (2) the microphysics/latent heating effects, and (3) surface fluxes on the development and intensity of the snowstorm were also conducted by turning these options off in the numerical model. Of all three experiments, the surface flux experiment displays the least amount of influence on the developing frozen precipitation bands.

Modulation of precipitation by conditional symmetric instability release

Although many theoretical and observational studies have investigated the mechanism of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) release and associated it with mesoscale atmospheric phenomena such as frontal precipitation bands, cloud heads in rapidly developing extratropical cyclones and sting jets, its climatology and contribution to precipitation have not been extensively documented. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of CSI release, yielding slantwise convection, to climatological precipitation accumulations for the North Atlantic and western Europe. Case studies reveal that CSI release could be common along cold fronts of mature extratropical cyclones and the North Atlantic storm track is found to be a region with large CSI according to two independent CSI metrics. Correlations of CSI with accumulated precipitation are also large in this region and CSI release is inferred to be occurring about 20% of the total time over depths of over 1 km. We conclude that the inability of current global weather forecast and climate prediction models to represent CSI release (due to insufficient resolution yet lack of subgrid parametrization schemes) may lead to errors in precipitation distributions, particularly in the region of the North Atlantic storm track.

Cold‐conveyor‐belt jet, sting jet and slantwise circulations in idealized simulations of extratropical cyclones

The present study investigates the formation of sting‐jet cyclones using an idealized configuration of a high‐resolution mesoscale numerical model. The initial set‐up is composed of axisymmetric finite‐amplitude synoptic‐scale cyclones added to a baroclinic zonal jet. When the surface cyclone is initialized on the warm‐air side of the zonal jet, a strong bent‐back warm front forms, which is a favourable condition for sting jets. A rather high vertical resolution of about 200 m in the lower troposphere is required to obtain well‐formed slantwise circulations near the cloud head and to make the distinction between cold‐conveyor‐belt jet and sting jet. In contrast, when the surface cyclone is initialized on the jet axis, the surface cyclone is more representative of the Norwegian cyclone model and the bent‐back warm front is almost non‐existent.Sting‐jet mechanisms are analyzed using backward Lagrangian trajectories. A minority group of air parcels entering the sting‐jet region undergoes diabatic cooling due to sublimation of snow and graupel. The majority group does not present such a diabatic cooling and corresponds to descending air masses from the cloud‐head region in a near‐neutral environment with respect to conditional symmetric instability. Indeed, the saturated moist potential vorticity is near zero and the momentum surfaces and saturated moist isentropes are quasi‐parallel in the main slantwise descent. The latter descent is shown to be geostrophically forced by the strong divergent component of the along‐front Q vector.Boundary‐layer processes are also analyzed. In most areas, the static stability being strong, there is no penetration of descents coming from the sting jet into the boundary layer and the peaks in surface wind gusts are connected to intrinsic boundary‐layer convective cells and parametrized turbulence. Such a penetration occurs in some areas but is not related to the strongest wind gusts.

Thundersnow in Brazil: a case study of 22 July 2013

AbstractOn 23 July 2013, a snowstorm hit southern Brazil causing material damage and two deaths. Radar reflectivity and lightning data revealed a rare thundersnow occurrence. This study revealed that a Rossby wave propagation followed a typical pattern of cold incursions in South America, but some fundamental differences can be pointed out: (1) further northward Rossby wave amplification; (2) strong upward vertical motion within a deep nearly saturated layer and (3) a conditional symmetric instability layer, in response to strong vertical shear, beneath a layer of weak conditional instability, and above a significant near‐surface vertical depth where temperatures hover around 0 °C.

A diagnostic study of the asymmetric distribution of rainfall during the landfall of typhoon Haitang (2005)

The precipitation during landfall of typhoon Haitang (2005) showed asymmetric structures (left side/right side of the track). Analysis of Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation data showed that rainfall on the right side was more than 15 times stronger than on the left side. The causes were analyzed by focusing on comparing the water vapor flux, stability and upward motion between the two sides. The major results were as follows: (1) Relative humidity on both sides was over 80%, whereas the convergence of water vapor flux in the lower troposphere was about 10 times larger on the right side than on the left side. (2) Both sides featured conditional symmetric instability [MPV (moist potential vorticity) <0], but the right side was more unstable than the left side. (3) Strong (weak) upward motion occurred throughout the troposphere on the right (left) side. The Q vector diagnosis suggested that large-scale and mesoscale forcing accounted for the difference in vertical velocity. Orographic lift and surface friction forced the development of the asymmetric precipitation pattern. On the right side, strong upward motion from the forcing of different scale weather systems and topography caused a substantial release of unstable energy and the transportation of water vapor from the lower to the upper troposphere, which produced torrential rainfall. However, the above conditions on the left side were all much weaker, which led to weaker rainfall. This may have been the cause of the asymmetric distribution of rainfall during the landfall of typhoon Haitang.

Distinguishing the Cold Conveyor Belt and Sting Jet Airstreams in an Intense Extratropical Cyclone

Abstract Strong winds equatorward and rearward of a cyclone core have often been associated with two phenomena: the cold conveyor belt (CCB) jet and sting jets. Here, detailed observations of the mesoscale structure in this region of an intense cyclone are analyzed. The in situ and dropsonde observations were obtained during two research flights through the cyclone during the Diabatic Influences on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Storms (DIAMET) field campaign. A numerical weather prediction model is used to link the strong wind regions with three types of “airstreams” or coherent ensembles of trajectories: two types are identified with the CCB, hooking around the cyclone center, while the third is identified with a sting jet, descending from the cloud head to the west of the cyclone. Chemical tracer observations show for the first time that the CCB and sting jet airstreams are distinct air masses even when the associated low-level wind maxima are not spatially distinct. In the model, the CCB experiences slow latent heating through weak-resolved ascent and convection, while the sting jet experiences weak cooling associated with microphysics during its subsaturated descent. Diagnosis of mesoscale instabilities in the model shows that the CCB passes through largely stable regions, while the sting jet spends relatively long periods in locations characterized by conditional symmetric instability (CSI). The relation of CSI to the observed mesoscale structure of the bent-back front and its possible role in the cloud banding is discussed.

On the Dynamics, Thermodynamics, and Forecast Model Evaluation of Two Snow-Burst Events in Southern Alberta

Abstract Two high-impact convective snowband events (“snow bursts”) that affected Calgary, Alberta, Canada, are examined to better understand the dynamics and thermodynamics of heavy snowbands not associated with lake effects or the cold conveyor belt of synoptic-scale cyclones. Such events are typically characterized by brief, but heavy, periods of snow; low visibilities; and substantial hazards to automobile and aviation interests. Previous literature on these events has been limited to a few case studies across North America, including near the leeside foothills of the U.S. Rockies. The large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics are investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Previously, high-resolution convection-explicit Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations have shown some ability to successfully reproduce the dynamics, thermodynamics, and appearance of convective snowbands, with small errors in location and timing. Therefore, WRF simulations are performed for both events, and are evaluated along with the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model forecasts. Both the NARR and WRF simulations show that while the two snow bursts are similar in appearance, they form as a result of different dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms. The first event occurs downstream of an upper-tropospheric jet streak in a region of little synoptic-scale ascent, where ageostrophic frontogenesis helps to release conditional, dry symmetric, and inertial instability in an unsaturated environment. The inertial instability is determined to be related to fast flow over upstream high terrain. The second event occurs in a saturated environment in a region of Q-vector convergence (primarily geostrophic frontogenesis), which acts to release conditional, convective, and conditional symmetric instability (CSI).

A case study of the November 2012 mixed rain-snow storm over North China

A mixed rain-snow storm associated with a strong burst of cold air and development of an extratropical cyclone occurred over North China from 3 to 5 November 2012. This early snowfall event was characterized by a dramatic drop in temperature, strong winds, high precipitation intensity, broad spatial extent, and coexistence of multi-phase precipitating hydrometeors. This study investigates the multi-scale interactions between the large-scale circulation background and the synoptic-scale weather systems associated with the storm. The results are as follows. (1) The Arctic Oscillation (AO) had been in its negative phase long before the event, leading to southward advection of cold air into North China in advance of the storm. (2) The large-scale atmospheric circulation experienced a decreased number of long waves upstream of North China prior to the storm, resulting in reduced wave velocity and an almost stagnant low pressure system (extratropical cyclone) over North China. (3) An Ω-shaped blocking high over East Asia and the western Pacific obstructed the eastward movement of an upstream trough, allowing the corresponding surface cyclone to stabilize and persist over Beijing and its neighboring areas. This blocking high was a major factor in making this event a historically most severe precipitation event in autumn in Beijing for the past 60 years. (4) Baroclinic instability at lower levels gave rise to rapid development of the cyclone under the classical “second type” development mechanism for extratropical cyclones. (5) Moisture originated from the Yellow Sea entered the slowly-moving cyclone in a steady stream, creating fairly favorable water vapor supply for the heavy rainfall-snowfall, especially during the later stage of the cyclone development. (6) Moisture transport and frontal lifting triggered low-level instability and updrafts. Intensification of the front enhanced the vertical wind shear, causing conditional symmetric instability (CSI) to expand upward within the unstable lower troposphere, and to eventually gear into the CSI region of the upper troposphere, which facilitated the upward development of low-level updrafts.

Attribution of strong winds to a cold conveyor belt and sting jet

AbstractA high‐resolution version of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model has been used to study the fine structure of a cloud head and its associated cold conveyor belt jet (CJ) and sting jet (SJ) in an intense extratropical cyclone that produced damaging surface winds in northern Ireland and central Scotland on 3 January 2012. The model was run with many different initialisation times and physical parametrisations, and a run was selected that verified well against a variety of observations. New methods have been devised to visualise the 3D structure of the CJ and SJ and to attribute strong surface winds to one or other of them, and the validity of regarding the SJ as a semi‐Lagrangian feature has been assessed. The model suggests that, whereas the CJ remained mainly below the 850 hPa level as it circulated around the bent‐back front, the SJ consisted of a stream or streams of air within the bent‐back frontal zone that first ascended from close to the surface into the middle and upper‐level parts of the cloud head before descending from evaporating cloud filaments at the tip of the cloud head and reaching the top of the boundary layer slightly ahead of the CJ. The simulations did not support the idea that either the evaporation or conditional symmetric instability (CSI) played a major role in the development of these jets. The strong gusts (up to 47 m s−1) which were recorded on the north coast of Ireland appear to have been due mainly to the CJ, which by then was undercutting the SJ. The SJ was responsible for stronger surface winds than the CJ several hours earlier during the initial stage of frontal fracture, but only for a limited period.