5-year Conditional Survival Research Articles

Conditional survival and changing risk profile in patients with chordoma: a population-based longitudinal cohort study

ObjectiveTo evaluate the conditional survival of patients with chordoma to potentially help physician planning of optimal cancer surveillance and guide better clinical decisions.MethodsIn total, 1942 patients with chordoma were identified and extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) databases (1973–2015). The cumulative survival estimates were used to calculate the conditional survival rate, and the Greenwood formula was used to estimate the 95% CI. In addition, multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios, according to the duration of survival.ResultsThe conditional 5-year disease-specific survival in patients with regional or localized chordoma was relatively stable over time, whereas in patients with distant chordoma, there was a gradual improvement. The conditional 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) of patients older than 60 years old and patients with a tumor size between 5 and 10 cm improved. Interestingly, for patients with a tumor larger than 10 cm, the conditional 5-year DSS decreased over time. After surviving 5 years, the hazard ratio (HR) of patients older than 60 years old decreased from 1.33 to 1.24, that of patients with a tumor size between 5 and 10 cm decreased from 1.61 to 1.52 and that of patients with distant metastasis decreased from 3.30 to 1.09. However, after surviving 5 years, the HR of patients with a tumor size larger than 10 cm increased from 2.33 to 3.77, that of patients who underwent surgical resection increased from 0.37 to 0.58 and that of patients who received radiation therapy increased from 0.81 to 1.04.ConclusionAge at diagnosis, tumor size and disease stage can influence conditional survival for patients with chordoma. The HR of different factors will change over the survival time. Therefore, understanding the changing risk profile and conditional 5-year DSS of chordoma is critical for accurate clinical treatment guidance.

Net survival in recurrence-free colon cancer patients

PurposeConditional net survival in recurrence-free patients (CNS-RF) provides relevant clinical information and has never been assessed yet in a non-selected colon cancer population. We aimed to estimate conditional 5-year net survival in recurrence-free patients with colon cancer in the population-based Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy (France). MethodsCNS-RF was estimated in the 3736 patients resected for cure for primary colon cancer between 1976 and 2006, using a flexible parametric model of net survival for every additional year survived at diagnosis and from 1 to 5 years thereafter. ResultsThe net probability of surviving 5 more years increased from 72% at diagnosis to 92% for recurrence-free patients who survived 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was over 90% 3 years after diagnosis in patients aged 75 and below. CNS-RF was over 95% in patients diagnosed after 2000 who were recurrence-free 3, 4 or 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was similar between patients with stage I and II disease from 2 years after diagnosis and patients with stage III disease from 5 years after diagnosis. The initial differences in net survival related to gross features, clinical presentation, number of harvested nodes in stage II, and number of involved nodes in stage III disappeared after 2 years. ConclusionsCNS-RF is a relevant measure of prognosis in patients who have already achieved a period of remission. Providing an updated estimation of prognosis in the years following diagnosis may improve the survivors’ quality of life and access to credit or insurance.

Trends in incidence and long-term survival of Japanese women with vulvar cancer: a population-based analysis.

The incidence and long-term survival analysis for vulvar cancer, due to its rarity, has not been fully described in Asian population. The objective of the study is to determine the trends in incidence and long-term survival for vulvar cancer in a Japanese population, using a population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan. The age-standardized incidence rate of 389 cases of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) diagnosed between 1976 and 2010 was calculated, using the 1985 model population of Japan. The annual percentage change (APC) of the age-standardized incidence was estimated by the joinpoint regression models. The 5- and 10-year relative survival of 290 cases with vulvar SCC diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 were analyzed, using a cohort or period approach. Using the 10-year relative survival, the conditional 5-year survival for patients who lived for some years after diagnosis was also calculated. We have found that the age-standardized incidence rate for vulvar cancer trended downward during the period of 1979-1992 (APC - 6.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI) [- 11.3% to - 1.0%]), whereas it trended upward from 1993 to 2010 (APC 1.9%; 95% CI [- 0.7% to 4.6%]). There was no statistically significant difference for the 5- and 10-year relative survival between the two periods of 1976-2000 and 2001-2008. A statistically significant increase in the conditional 5-year survival at 2 years after diagnosis was observed (48.4%; 95% CI [41.1-55.3] versus 75.6%; 95% CI [64.0-83.9]). Despite an increasing trend in vulvar cancer incidence among Japanese population, the relative survival rate for vulvar cancer did not change over the 35years of this study. We found that the conditional 5-year survival for vulvar cancer, as patients survived additional years, approached within reach of 100%. These data can provide valuable information for both patients and clinicians.

Increasing use of immunotherapy and prolonged survival among younger patients with primary CNS lymphoma: a population-based study

Background: Primary CNS lymphoma is a highly aggressive and rare type of extranodal non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Although, new therapeutic approaches have led to improved survival, the management of the disease poses a challenge, practice patterns vary across institutions and countries, and remain ill-defined for vulnerable patient subgroups.Material and Methods: Using information from the Austrian Brain Tumor Registry we followed a population-based cohort of 189 patients newly diagnosed from 2005 to 2010 through various lines of treatment until death or last follow-up (12-31-2016). Prognostic factors and treatment-related data were integrated in a comprehensive survival analysis including conditional survival estimates.Results: We find variable patterns of first-line treatment with increasing use of rituximab and high-dose methotrexate (HDMTX)-based poly-chemotherapy after 2007, paralleled by an increase in median overall survival restricted to patients aged below 70 years. In the entire cohort, 5-year overall survival was 24.4% while 5-year conditional survival increased with every year postdiagnosis.Conclusion: In conclusion, we show that the use of poly-chemotherapy and immunotherapy has disseminated to community practice to a fair extent and survival has increased over time at least in younger patients. Annually increasing conditional survival rates provide clinicians with an adequate and encouraging prognostic measure.

Survival Outcomes in Heart Transplant Patients; Specific Focus on ACHD Patients and Their Outcomes as Compared to Dilated and Ischemic Cardiomyopathy Patients

Purpose Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with high early post-transplant mortality but improved long-term survival in comparison to the overall heart transplant population. We aimed to evaluate survival outcomes of ACHD in adult transplant recipient patients as specifically compared to ischemic (ICM) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) groups. This was a retrospective analysis of the ISHLT Registry data. Methods Adult heart transplant recipients between 2004 and 2014 were identified from the ISHLT registry. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis test to evaluate overall survival, 1-year survival and 1-year conditional survival among etiology groups and multivariable Cox proportional hazard (PH) model to assess the association between etiology of cardiomyopathy and 1-year, 1-year conditional all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality. Results We included 30,130 heart transplant recipients: 1,839 (6.1%) CHD, 16,044 (53.2%) DCM and 12,247 (40.6%) ICM patients. By multivariable analysis CHD or ICM patients were at significantly higher mortality risk than DCM during the first year post-transplant. One-year survival was 78.3% in CHD, 84.3% in ICM and 86.2 in DCM patients. One-year conditional post-transplant survival was similar in CHD and DCM (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.83-1.13) while ICM patients had higher long-term mortality risk than DCM patients (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.26). Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that CHD patients were at higher risk for infection and graft failure related mortality than DCM patients within the first year post-transplant. Conclusion Patients with CHD or ICM are at significantly higher early all-cause mortality than DCM patients. CHD and DCM patients had comparable long-term survival and significantly improved long-term survival compared to ICM patients. This has implications for CHD patient selection for transplant and perioperative management.

Conditional survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing curative intent resection: Analysis of the national cancer database

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a lethal malignancy rising in both incidence and mortality worldwide. Conditional survival (CS) estimates represent the probability that a patient will survive additional number of years, because the patient has already survived a given amount of time, and better define the survival potential over time. We analyzed the CS estimates of resected patients from the time of surgical resection. Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients who had curative intent surgical resection for HCC was performed using the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) from 2004-2014. Crude survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. For the purposes of the CS analysis, we assessed the probability of surviving an additional 5 years (CS5), given that the patient had already survived 2 years. As such, the 5-year CS for patients who had survived (S) “X” years was computed as CS5 S(x+5)/S(x). CS estimates were also stratified by clinicopathologic variables of interest. Results: The NCDB captured 11,357 patients who underwent resection for HCC. The characteristics of the patients and tumors include: male gender (74.1%), white race (78.7%), Charlson Deyo score of 0-1 (72.5%), intermediate tumor grade (53.1%), margin-negative resection (88.5%), 30-day mortality (3.2%) and 90-day mortality (5.4%). Table 1 shows that, for example, for the OS, the unconditional 5-year survival probability is 65.9%, but given that those have survived 2 years, the additional 5-year survival probability is 84.7% (in red). Also, the unconditional 4-year survival probability is 71.0%, given that the person survived 2 or 3 years, the 4-year survival probabilities are 85.1 and 78.6% respectively (in blue). Similarly, the 5-year CS for patients who have survived 2 years is as follows for: age < 65 (92.9%), intermediate grade (85.2%), margin-negative resection (84.8%), no radiation therapy (84.6%), and no systemic therapy (81.2%). The overall survival was highly statistically significant between different groups within each of these variables (p < 0.0004). Conclusion: CS estimates following resection in HCC patients reflect an improved survival for a given length of time survived compared to the respective unconditional survival. However, the CS declines for each successive year survived reflecting other variables that (perhaps not oncologic) that impact survival in HCC. CS estimates provides more accurate prognostic information for the individual resected HCC patients, and can be used by clinical clinicians to guide further therapy and follow up years after resection.

Conditional Survival Estimates Improve Over Time for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Analysis for Nationwide Korea Cancer Registry Database.

PurposeConditional survival estimates (CSE) can provide additional useful prognostic information on the period of survival after diagnosis, which helps in counseling patients with cancer on their individual prognoses. This study aimed to analyze conditional survival (CS) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a Korean national registry.Materials and MethodsPatients with HCC, registered in the Korean cancer registry database, were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The 1-year CS at X year or month after diagnosis were calculated as CS1=OS(X+1)/OS(X). CS calculations were performed in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, after which patients at stage 0, A, and B underwent subgroup analysis using initial treatment methods.ResultsA total of 4,063 patients diagnosed with HCC from January 2008 to December 2010, and 2,721 who were diagnosed from January 2011 to December 2012, were separately reviewed. In 2008-2010, the 1-year CS of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year survivors was 82.9%, 85.1%, 88.3%, 88.0%, and 88.6%, respectively. Patients demonstrated an increase in CSE over time in subgroup analysis, especially in the advanced stages. In 2011-2012, the 1-year CS of 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months was 81.5%, 83.8%, 85.3%, 85.5%, 86.5%, and 88.8%, respectively. The subgroup analysis showed the same tendency towards increased CSE in the advanced stages.ConclusionOverall, the CS improved with each additional year after diagnosis in both groups. CSE may therefore provide a more accurate prognosis and hopeful message to patients who are surviving with or after treatment.

Conditional Survival in Patients with Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Upfront Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation

Background Conditional survival (CS) is defined as the probability of surviving an additional x years given a patient has already survived y years since diagnosis or a time-point of interest. Although there are readily available overall survival (OS) estimates in multiple myeloma (MM) from the time of diagnosis or autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT), data on CS in those who had already survived a landmark time since ASCT are lacking. Our objective was to investigate 5-year CS rate and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in 1-, 3- and 5-year survivors after front-line ASCT in MM. Method We reviewed the institutional transplant database at Cleveland Clinic to identify 340 patients who underwent frontline ASCT (≤18 months from diagnosis) for MM between 1996 and 2013. OS was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Relapse mortality (RM) and non-relapse mortality (NRM) were estimated with cumulative incidence. SMR was defined as the ratio of number of deaths in the study patients to that in an age, sex and race-matched healthy population. Estimates of outcomes and SMR are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results We identified 309 survivors at 1 year, 246 at 3 years, and 178 at 5 years from ASCT. The median age at ASCT was 56 years (range, 22-76) in all 3 cohorts. The median time from diagnosis to ASCT was 7.9 months in 1- and 3-year and 8.2 months in 5-year survivors. Approximately 40%, 35%, and 25% of patients had ISS stage I, II and III disease respectively at diagnosis in all cohorts. Median follow-up from ASCT in surviving patients was 88 months, 90 months and 100 months in 1-, 3- and 5-year survivors respectively. Estimated 5-year CS was 59% (53-64) in 1-year survivors, 60% (53-67) in 3-year survivors and 62% (53-70) in 5-year survivors. The respective cumulative incidence of 5-year conditional RM was 34% (28-39), 29% (23-35) and 25% (18-33) and that of NRM was 7% (5-11), 11% (7-16) and 13% (8-19). The SMR of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year survivors was 6.9 (5.8-8.2), 6.1 (5.0-7.5) and 5.6 (4.3-7.3) respectively, indicating significantly worse survival compared to demographically-matched healthy population irrespective of the duration of survival after ASCT. Survival curves for the 3 cohorts are shown in Figure I. Conclusion The probability of surviving an additional 5 years in patients with MM undergoing front-line ASCT does not improve with time, as shown in 1-, 3- and 5-year survivors, with estimated 5-year CS staying constant at around 60%. However, a decrease in the magnitude of SMR was observed with increase in the number of years already survived after ASCT. Information on CS and SMR is a pragmatic resource for long-term survivorship and beneficial at an individual level for counselling patients.

A long-term conditional survival analysis for gastric cancer based on 7th and 8th TNM classification in Eastern and Western populations

BackgroundTo compare the power to predict the 5-year conditional disease-specific survival (CS5) between the 7th and 8th editions of the TNM for gastric cancer (GC) patients. MethodThis retrospective study recruited 20,548 patients who underwent GC surgery from the databases of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results and a center in Asia. The CS5 was evaluated with the 7th and 8th TNM classification. ResultsA two-step model showed that at the 3-5th postoperative years, the 8th staging remained an independent risk factor, whereas there was no significant difference for 7th -edition staging. Further analysis of the ability to predict CS5 indicated that there were significant differences in the CS5 of 7th -edition stages IIb and IIIa at baseline and at the postoperative 1-4th years (all p < 0.05, Cohen's d > 0.5). However, the CS5 of the fifth year was similar between them (p = 0.307, Cohen's d = 0.35). Meanwhile, the results indicated that the 8th -edition staging could effectively determine the CS5 among stages Ⅰa, Ⅰb, Ⅱa, Ⅱb, Ⅲa, and Ⅲb at baseline and at the postoperative 1-5th years (all p < 0.05). However, neither the 7th - nor the 8th -edition staging could predict the CS5 for stages Ⅲb and Ⅲc from the postoperative third to fifth years (all p > 0.05). ConclusionsFor patients with stages IIB and IIIA GC, the 8th TNM has a higher discriminatory value than the 7th edition for CS5 after the postoperative fourth year. However, a more detailed classification system is still needed to predict conditional survival for GC.

Survival after lung transplantation of cystic fibrosis patients infected with Burkholderia dolosa (genomovar VI).

Cystic fibrosis (CF) with severe lung disease is a well-recognized indication for lung transplantation. Colonization with various organisms in CF patients may impact post-transplant morbidity and mortality. Burkholderia cepacia complex (BCC) is made up of distinct genomovars with significant morbidity and mortality associated with B.cenocepacia (genomovar III) following lung transplant. The outcomes of patients infected with genomovar B.dolosa (genomovar VI) have yet to be described in the literature. We performed a retrospective chart review of all cystic fibrosis patients colonized with B.dolosa from our center who underwent lung transplantation (n=11) at various medical centers across the US between 2000 and 2014. Survival rates were 73%, 53%, and 30% for 1, 3, and 5years, respectively. Median survival was 44months (95% CI=11.1-76.8). CF patients with B.dolosa that have undergone lung transplantation have decreased one-year survival when compared to all patients transplanted with cystic fibrosis. Conditional 5-year survival for B.dolosa-infected patients was 43% in patients that survived the first year post-transplant, suggesting that this first year is crucial in managing the infection. Importantly, the survival of the B.dolosa patients was higher than compared to previously reported survival rates of B.cenocepacia patients post-transplant.

Changeable prognosis and associated prognostic factors for conditional survival estimates in metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients receiving the first-line targeted therapy.

587 Background: Conditional survival (CS) indicates the probability that patient would survive additional periods, given that the patients has previous survivorship after diagnosis or initial treatment. Here, we aim to evaluate the CS probabilities in mRCC patients who underwent targeted therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) and to identify the significant prognostic factors of the CS over time. Methods: A total of 1,498 mRCC patients receiving 1st line TKI was finally analyzed from Korean multicenter database of mRCC. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates was used to calculate overall and cancer-specific CS rates by using following formula: CS(α│β) = S(α+β)/S(β), where CS(α│β) indicates the likelihood of additional α years survivorship in the person who has already survived for β years after initial diagnosis or treatment, and S(χ) is the actual survival rate. The Cox regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of CS depended on clinicopathological features. Results: We observed that 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CSS) gradually increased as patients who have all additional survivorships after initial treatment, compared to those with baseline survival estimation. Also, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year conditional OS rates also increased after additional 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 year survivorships following first-line TKI treatment. Furthermore, we found that key predictive factors of OS and CSS were changed over time in multivariate analysis. While several variables, such as BMI, histologic subtypes, pT stage, were identified as prognosticators of CSS at baseline, they were not remained as independent predictors after 1 yr survivorship. Conversely, only previous metastatectomy was determined as a key prognostic factor for conditional OS over time until 4 yr survivorship after initial TKI treatment. Conclusions: Our study offers valuable information for practical survival estimation and relevant predictive factors for patients with mRCC receiving targeted therapy.

Kidney allograft survival outcomes in combined intestinal-kidney transplant: An analysis of the UNOS/OPTN database 2000-2014.

Intestinal transplants carry a high morbidity/mortality. Kidney allograft outcomes after combined intestinal (IT) with kidney transplant (CIKT) remain largely uninvestigated. The UNOS STAR database was queried to identify all such combined organ transplants from 2000 to 2015. Out of a total 2215 (51.4% peds vs 48.6% adults) intestinal transplants, 111 (5.0%) CIKT were identified (32.4% peds vs 67.6% adults). Over the study period of CIKT, a total of 45.9% of these cases died with a functioning kidney graft. DGF rate was 9.0%. The 1-year reported kidney acute rejection rate was 6.3%. For the entire CIKT population over the entire study era, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year unadjusted kidney graft survival was 57%, 39%, and 34%, while death-censored kidney graft survival was 93%, 90%, and 86%, respectively. Overall conditional 5-year kidney graft survival (defined as 1-year kidney graft survival) was 58%. Overall, patient survival was significantly lower in recipients of CIKT compared to intestinal transplant (IT) (P<.005); However, the 5-year conditional (1year kidney graft) patient survival in adults was not significantly different between IT and CIKT overall (P=.194). Kidney allograft survival is primarily dependent on 1-year patient survival. Guidelines regarding allocation of kidney allografts in CIKT need to take into consideration utility and urgency.

Benefits of marriage on relative and conditional relative cancer survival differ between males and females in the USA.

The purpose of the paper is to assess the influence of marital status on conditional relative survival of cancer according to sex. Analyses involved 779,978 males and 1,032,868 females diagnosed with 1 of 13 cancer types between 2000 and 2008, and followed through 2013. Data are from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and tumor stage. Five-year relative survival conditional on years already survived is higher among married patients with less lethal cancers (oral cavity and pharynx, colon and rectum, breast, urinary bladder, kidney and renal pelvis, melanoma of the skin, thyroid, lymphoma). For more lethal cancers, married patients have similar (liver, lung and bronchus, pancreas, leukemia) or poorer (brain and other nervous system) cancer survival. Separated/divorced or widowed patients have the lowest conditional relative survival rates. For most cancers, 5-year cancer relative survival rates conditional on time already survived through 5years approach 70 to 90% of that for the general population. The beneficial effect of marriage on survival decreases with years already survived. Superior conditional relative survival rates in females decrease with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Five-year relative survival rates improve with time already survived. The benefits of marriage on conditional relative survival are greater for less lethal cancers. Greater 5-year conditional relative survival rates in females narrow with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Conditional relative survival rates of cancer can lead to more informed decisions and understanding regarding treatment and prognosis.

Long-term use of left ventricular assist devices: a report on clinical outcomes

The literature examining clinical outcomes and readmissions during extended (> 1 yr) left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support is scarce, particularly in the era of continuous-flow LVADs. We completed a retrospective cohort study on consecutive LVAD patients from June 2006 to March 2015, focusing on those who received more than 1 year of total LVAD support time. Demographic characteristics, clinical outcomes and readmissions were analyzed using standard statistical methods. All readmissions were categorized as per the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support 2015 guidelines. Of the 103 patients who received LVADs during the study period, 37 received LVAD support for more than 1 year, with 18 receiving support for more than 2 years. Average support time was 786 ± 381 days, with total support time reaching 80 patient-years. During a median follow-up of 2 years, 27 patients died, with 1-year conditional survival of 74%. Median freedom from first readmission was 106 days (range 1-603 d), with an average length of stay of 6 days. Readmissions resulted in an average of 41 ± 76 days in hospital per patient. Reasons for readmission were major infection (24%), major bleeding (19%) and device malfunction/thrombus (13%). There were a total of 112 procedures completed during the readmissions, with 60% of procedures being done in 13% (n = 5) of patients. Continuous-flow LVADs provide excellent long-term survival. The present study describes marked differences in reasons for readmissions between the general LVAD population and those supported for more than 1 year. Prolonged LVAD support resulted in decreased susceptibility to major bleeds and increased susceptibility to infection.

Descriptive epidemiological study of vaginal cancer using data from the Osaka Japan population-based cancer registry: Long-term analysis from a clinical viewpoint.

Vaginal cancer is such a rare tumor that epidemiological and clinical information for it is based mainly on studies of small numbers of cases. The aim of the present study was to perform a descriptive epidemiological analysis of vaginal cancer using a significantly larger population-based dataset from the Japanese Osaka Cancer Registry.The age-standardized incidence of vaginal cancer per 1,000,000 persons, from 1976 to 2010, was calculated and examined for trends. Relative-survival analysis was applied to estimate a more up-to-date 10-year period calculation, using data from recently followed-up patients. The conditional 5-year survival of patients who survived for 0 to 5 years after diagnosis was calculated.A total of 481 cases of vaginal cancer were registered in Osaka during the 35-year period from 1976 to 2010. The age-adjusted incidence rate has significantly and consistently decreased over this time [annual percent change (APC) = −1.29, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): −0.3 ∼ −2.2]; however, due to significant population aging, the raw incidence of vaginal cancer appeared to have been increasing. The 10-year relative survival of patients with surgery-based treatments was comparable to that of radiation-based treatments, implying that surgery and radiotherapy provide similar therapeutic benefits (P = .98). The 10-year relative survival was not significantly different during the period of 1976 to 2000 compared with the period of 2001 to 2008, although there has been, in the latter period, a tendency for improvement of long-term survival, especially for survival longer than 5 years. The longer the time after diagnosis, the higher the conditional 5-year relative-survival at 0 to 4 years after diagnosis.The age-adjusted incidence of vaginal cancer has decreased since 1976. Regrettably, the 10-year survival rate did not similarly improve, and it remained stable during the period from 2001 to 2008, compared with the period from 1976 to 2000, indicating that significant work remains to be done to develop more effective vaginal cancer treatments.

The Conditional Survival with Time of Intravesical Recurrence of Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma.

Since conditional survival analysis provides better estimates of survival time at each followup, we assessed changes in conditional intravesical recurrence-free survival rates after radical nephroureterectomy. We also sought to determine how the impact of well-known risk factors evolves with time, particularly in patients with localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma. We identified 364 patients with Ta-3N0M0 localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma who underwent open or laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy at 1 of our 3 institutions. Conditional intravesical recurrence-free and cancer specific survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The changing impact of parameters on intravesical recurrence with time was assessed by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Intravesical recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy was detected in 176 patients (48.4%) and 93 (25.5%) died of localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Five-year intravesical recurrence-free and cancer specific survival rates after surgery were 41.5% and 72.9%, respectively. Based on 1, 2, 3 and 4-year survivorship the 5-year conditional intravesical recurrence-free survival rate increased from 41.5% to 60.5%, 73.4%, 79.5% and 96.7%, respectively. The 5-year conditional cancer specific survival rate also improved from 72.9% to 78.4%, 85.4%, 90.9% and 95.5% at 1, 2, 3 and 4 years, respectively. The effects of well-known predictive factors on estimated conditional survival decreased with time for intravesical recurrence. In contrast, the impact of T2 or lower pathological stage and laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy sustained statistical power with time. Conditional survival analysis revealed that the probability of intravesical recurrence-free survival increased with time in patients with localized Ta-3N0M0 upper tract urothelial carcinoma after radical nephroureterectomy. Patients with T2 or lower T stage who undergo laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy may be recommended for longer followup to detect subsequent intravesical recurrence.

Conditional Survival Analysis Demonstrates that Recurrence Risk of Surgically Treated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Evolves with Time

ObjectiveThe study aim was to investigate long-term change in tumor recurrence risk in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatic resection. Recurrence probability over time was estimated by conditional survival (CS) analysis. Patients and MethodsEarly-stage HCC patients with hepatic resection were selected for inclusion from our surgery database. Variables predictive of tumor recurrence were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Five-year recurrence-free CS probability was calculated for all patients and for risk groups stratified by independent predictors. ResultsIn this series of 436 patients, tumor size >5 cm, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, liver cirrhosis, and a indocyanine green retention ratio at 15 min (ICG-R15) >20% were independently predictive of tumor recurrence. The estimated 5-year recurrence-free CS probability improved with each additional year of recurrence-free survival, and the improvement was significantly greater in the high-risk than in the low- or intermediate-risk groups. ConclusionCS provides added value during follow-up of early-stage HCC patients treated by surgical resection.

Can the Preoperative Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Significantly Predict the Conditional Survival Probability in Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer Patients Undergoing Radical Cystectomy?

The present study investigated the prognostic value of the preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in bladder cancer patients undergoing radical cystectomy (RC), with a focus on the conditional survival (CS) estimates over time after surgery. We analyzed 385 bladder cancer patients who underwent RC from 1999 to 2012. The patients were classified into 2 groups according to the preoperative NLR (< 2.5 vs.≥ 2.5). The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate the conditional probabilities of cancer-specific survival and overall survival after surgery. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the predictors of 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival and overall survival. Patients with an elevated preoperative NLR (≥2.5) had a greater proportion of advanced-stage tumors (≥ pT3), high-grade tumors, and lymphovascular invasion. Patients with an elevated preoperative NLR (≥ 2.5) had poor CS estimates compared with those with a lower NLR (<2.5) at baseline and 1 year after RC. However, no significant differences in CS probabilities were observed from 2 years after RC onward. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, the preoperative NLR was identified as a significant predictive factor for 5-year CS at baseline and postoperative 1-year estimation; however, its significance was lost after 2 years postoperatively. Our study results suggest that the dynamic aspect of the NLR should be considered when assessing the prognosis of bladder cancer patients treated with RC over time after the initial estimates, in particular, in patients who have already survived for additional years after surgery.

Conditional Cancer Survival of the Corpus Uterine in the USA

Purpose To identify relative survival probabilities for corpus uterine cancer patients accounting for time already survived, as well as age, race, ethnicity, marital status, tumor stage, and tumor grade at diagnosis. Methods Analyses are based on 78,147 women diagnosed with corpus uterine cancer during 2000-2008 and followed through 2013, using data from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Results Age, race, marital status, tumor stage, and tumor grade, but not ethnicity, significantly impacted relative cancer survival rates of the corpus uterine. Improvement in 5-year relative survival, when conditioned on 1-5 years already survived, occurs in each stage category, more so in later staged cases. The effect of age, race, marital status, and tumor grade on 5-year relative survival, after conditioning on years ( 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 ) already survived, varied by stage at diagnosis. For example, poorer prognosis with older age was only observed for regional and distant staged cases, but being married had a greater beneficial impact in regional and distant staged cases. The difference in 5-year relative survival rates diminished for age, race, marital status, tumor stage and grade when conditioned on years ( 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 ) already survived. The greatest improvement in 5-year conditional relative survival was in patients 70 years or older, Blacks, singles, later staged tumors, and higher grade tumors. Conclusions Reporting cancer survival estimates according to time already survived and demographic subgroups provide health-care providers and patients with more instructive prognostic information.

Role of Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump and Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in Early Graft Failure After Cardiac Transplantation.

Early graft failure (EGF) is a major risk factor for death after heart transplantation (Htx). We investigated the predictive risk factors for moderate-to-severe EGF requiring an intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) circulatory support as treatment after Htx. Between January 2000 and December 2014, 412 consecutive adult patients underwent isolated Htx at our institution. Moderate and severe EGF were defined as the need for IABP and ECMO support, respectively, within 24 h after Htx. All available recipient and donor variables were analyzed to assess the risk of EGF occurrence. Overall, moderate-to-severe EGF occurred in 46 (11.1%) patients. Twenty-nine (63.04%) patients required peripheral or central ECMO support in the treatment of severe EGF and 17 (36.9%) patients required IABP support for the treatment of moderate EGF. The predictive risk factors for moderate-to-severe EGF in recipients, as assessed by logistic regression analysis, were a preoperative transpulmonary gradient > 12 mmHg (odds ratio [OR] 5.2; P = 0.023), a preoperative inotropic score > 10 (OR 8.5; P = 0.0001), and preoperative ECMO support (OR 4.2; P = 0.012). For donors, the predictive risk factor was a donor score ≥ 17 (OR 8.3; P = 0.006). The absence of EGF was correlated with improved long-term survival: 94% at 1 year and 81% at 5 years without EGF versus 76% and 36% at 1 year (P < 0.001), and 70% and 28% at 5 years (P < 0.001) with EGF requiring IABP and ECMO support, respectively. In-hospital weaned and survived patients after IABP or ECMO treatment for moderate-to-severe EGF had a similar 5-year conditional survival rate as transplant patients who had not suffered EGF: 88% without EGF versus 84% with EGF treated with mechanical circulatory support devices (P = 0.08). The occurrence of EGF is a multifactorial deleterious event that depends on donor and recipient profiles. IABP and ECMO support are reliable treatment strategies, depending on the grade of EGF. Furthermore, surviving patients treated with IABP or ECMO have the same long-term conditional survival rate as patients who have not suffered EGF.