Concept Of Acceptable Risk Research Articles

MODELING IN INVENTORY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT (INFLATION) RISKS

A model that can be used in the problems of inventory management under uncertainty and taking into account various types of risks, in particular, inflation risks, is presented and substantiated. The strategy of stock management under uncertain (stochastic) demand usually requires the creation of a certain reserve of a predetermined volume, and then the next deliveries of stocks are made. If at a certain point in time the total stock is reduced to the size of the reserve, then an urgent order for delivery of a new batch is made. If the fulfillment of the request requires a certain time (this process is not instantaneous!), then the request for its replenishment is submitted when the stock decreases to a level exceeding the predetermined amount of the reserve. The study provides one of the simplest ways to solve the reserve problem, namely, applying the principle of guaranteed result, i.e. electing a large enough reserve that guarantees minimum risk, namely, compensation of any random deviations, which requires large costs for their storage and the like. This also leads to the so-called opportunity risk as large reserves are associated with the diversion of significant funds. In this connection, additional hypotheses are introduced in the paper, and the concept of acceptable risk - the probability that the need for reserves will not exceed the available reserve - is used as the basis for calculating the required reserve. The concept of risk coefficient is introduced, which expresses the probability that the need for reserves will be unsatisfactory due to the insufficiency of the reserve and will exceed its volume. The value of the risk coefficient can be equal to 5% or 1%. The paper uses a modified formula for calculating the nominal rate of interest with inflation interest rate risk, which includes the following components: 1) real safe rate of interest; 2) inflation premium; 3) inflation risk premium; 4) investment project risk premium (reserve creation is a kind of investment); 5) synergistic premium for investment project and inflation risk; 6) synergistic premium for investment project and inflation risk; 7) liquidity premium (in fact, it is an assessment of liquidity risk). In the study the volumes of raw materials (components) reserve are determined, which leads to the reduction of risk degree; within the framework of M. Miller and D. Orr's model the volumes of cash reserves are determined, where inflation risks are taken into account in the value of missed opportunities (which is related to the content of cash reserves balance); in the task of reserves management under uncertainty and the risk caused by it, the total costs of maintaining the reserve per unit of time are minimized and the value of the optimal reserve together with the reserve is determined (within the framework of the modified model of V. Miller and D. Orr). The paper provides a rather simple method of accounting for possible risks arising in the creation of stocks (raw materials, cash, etc.), solved the problem of selecting a specific rational value of the risk coefficient (based on expert procedures and utility theory), which allows to reflect and take into account the attitude of decision-making subjects to risk.

Concept of acceptable risk in operation of subway facilities

Concept of acceptable risk in operation of subway facilities

THE USE OF A RISK-ORIENTED APPROACH OF PRODUCTION FACTORS ASSESSMENT FOR INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

The article deals with important aspects of research and implementation of risk-oriented approach (ROA), including: The operation of OSMS is necessary to carry out based on the management of professional risks. Decision-making and management of safe labour are associated with probabilistic certainty. That is the concept of risk, the features of which largely depend on the methods of enterprise management as a whole.Certification of workplaces and assessment of injury safety, in particular, should be associated with risk assess-ment. It allows building a safety system based on the concept of risk. At the same time, the idea of acceptable risk (CAR) permits you to analyze and ensure the level of safety of the production environment and apply a fairly simple, objective and not contradicting the requirements of the labour protection method of a quantitative assessment of professional risks.A significant improvement of injury safety assessment methodology is the transition to the concept of acceptable risk and the rejection from the concept of absolute safety, which requires new methods of a quantitative assessment of the level of injury safety. The proposed method of risk assessment is based on statistical characteristics of injuries and economic losses of the enterprise.The article proposes a set of measures to increase the level of safety at work and improve the ROA.It is important to update the legislation on the restructuring of social policy in the field of labour relations in Ukraine, including labour protections, to improve injury prevention, OSMS reform.The prevention of occupational injuries based on improving the effectiveness of measures and means of labour protection at the sectoral, state and industrial levels should be ensured by the new OSMS developed based on the Concept and the updated Law "On labour protection" in Ukraine.The purpose of research is to develop and implement methods of increasing the efficiency of activities in the field of labour protection by developing mechanisms to prevent industrial risks.The use of the conducted analysis and research will help to prevent hard forms of injuries with on-time adoption of the necessary management decisions on occupational safety at work.The eccentricity of the study is to perform an analytical assessment of the effectiveness of activities in the field of protection and develop models of organization and planning of risk-oriented approach (ROA) for its implementation in OSH. Developed a model of production risk management, which is based on a component method of assessing the risk of traumatic events and a mathematical model of management decisions, which differs from the existing one taking into account all available information related to the risk of the enterprise.Conclusion. A step-by-step expert assessment of measures to reduce production risk at an industrial enterprise by implementing measures according to certain criteria is proposed. The use of expert assessments in the planning of measures to reduce occupational injuries is appropriate. Because such an approach links preventive measures in the field of labour protection with the results of risk assessment and reduces the subjectivity in management decisions.Validity / Consequences of research. The proposed method of expert assessment of measures to reduce occupa-tional risk is relevant for industrial enterprises. It helps to find ways to reduce occupational injuries, as well as the imple-mentation of the Concept of labour protection reform in Ukraine.

Fuzzy modeling of the road traffic hazard level

The article is devoted to the author's concept development of the short-term road safety management on the federal roads in Russia. The results of development the rule for calculating hazard level depending on the road accidents risk are presented. The mathematical basis of the research is fuzzy modeling. The main stages of modeling are performed using the FisPro software. The concept of acceptable risk has been implemented based on the target values of state programs to improve traffic safety. The developed rule base is the basis for determining the hazard level, which can be the basis for calculating the main parameter of short-term road safety management – the hazard level.

ШЛЯХИ ЗНИЖЕННЯ ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ РИЗИКІВ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА

Problems and ways of reduction of economic risks of activity of the enterprise are investigated. The paper analyzes various types and methods of quantitative and qualitative risk analysis. The main ways to reduce risks in modern conditions are formulated. Particular attention is paid to insurance, hedging and diversification. The work of any enterprise is carried out according to pre-established plans, but in today’s conditions there are changes in planned actions or obstacles to their implementation. Any business is saturated with threats and risks, because risk is an integral part of any activity. There is a need to properly assess the degree of threat and skillfully manage it to reduce it, and better neutralize it. Entrepreneurial risk is a key spectrum of the enterprise, so when planning future or current activities it is necessary to take into account the risks. Entrepreneurial activity in market conditions is associated with stressful situations, which in turn are associated with financial, economic and other risks. It should be noted that in the course of its activities the company faces a wide range of risks. This means that risk management must provide a comprehensive system of effective measures to reduce the negative effects of each component of the set of risks, i.e. comprehensive management of the risk portfolio. The idea of risk management does not involve complete risk elimination, as achieving this goal may be too costly, if at all possible. Instead of such an unrealistic goal, it is a matter of minimizing the probable losses of the enterprise. In essence, risk protection is not about making a business completely safe, but only about reducing the risks to a level where they are no longer threatening. This is the concept of acceptable risk, which is basic in almost all risk management measures. Many conditions and factors affect the outcome of people’s economic decisions, the action of many of them is very difficult to predict. Most decisions in industry and trade have to be made in conditions of uncertainty. At the present stage of development of economics, much attention is paid to research, analysis and risk forecasting, as the ability to predict the consequences of management decisions is necessary for the stable operation of the enterprise.

RISK-ORIENTED APPROACH IN PUBLIC REGULATION OF MAN-MADE SAFETY OF UKRAINE

Implementation on the territory of Ukraine of modern principles of regulation in the field of man-made and natural safety is carried out at a slow pace. The introduction of European standards of safe living, which is one of the requirements of Ukraine's integration into the EU, is possible subject to the implementation of conceptual and methodological innovations and institutional transformations. Unfortunately, over time, the conceptual principles of risk management today, without losing their relevance, are insufficiently implemented in the practice of governing bodies of the Unified State Civil Protection System. In addition, the need to move from public management of man-made safety to public regulation, as determined by the processes of deregulation in the state poses a scientific problem finding practical ways to implement a risk-oriented approach to the practice of government at all levels. The purpose of the article is to study the possibilities of application in state regulation of man-made safety risk-oriented approach and its content. Risk-oriented approach (ROP) to any activity. assumes that any dangers (in the sphere of production, in everyday life and everyday life), despite their diversity, have the same nature of occurrence and the same logic of events. The main tasks of the ROP are to create a scientific basis for ensuring the reliability of complex technical systems for human safety and the environment, to develop methods for assessing the degree of danger of industrial facilities and the scientific basis of the concept of acceptable risk. The main instruments of public regulation in the field of risk management are state standardization, certification, state expertise, state supervision and control, licensing, economic regulation, declaration of facility safety and insurance. The main processes of state regulation of man-made safety on the basis of a risk-oriented approach are monitoring of emergencies, identification and certification of the risk of their occurrence, minimization of their impact or consequences (in case of catastrophic development of the situation). The risk assessment should be based on the technical concept of assessing the probability of their occurrence. Areas of further research are to determine the strategic directions of publik regulation of man-made safety based on the application of risk-oriented approach, development of proposals for the practical establishment of emergency monitoring centers.

Fatigue Resistance Models of Structural for Risk Based Inspection

The current stage of civil engineering is characterized by special attention to the safety of structures with a long service life. Such objects were designed several decades ago and their safe operation was ensured by significant safety margins. Now this approach to safety has been replaced by the concept of acceptable risk. It forms the basis of a risk based inspection (RBI) maintenance strategy. The transition from preventive maintenance strategies to a technical condition maintenance is substantiated. Complex indicators of technical condition, suitable for RBI- maintenance, are considered. The methodology of the resource safety index (RSI) is proposed. The latter is used as an indicator of risk. Special models of fatigue resistance is required for its control. The purpose of this paper is to build fatigue models for critical structural elements that are serviced according to the RBI concept. Instead of the traditional S-N curve, the lifetime general equation (first model) be used, where by the arguments are the main influence factors. Along with this, a modified ε - N equation is proposed for deformation criteria. The novelty of this equation is that it uses the rate of S-N- curve (slope) obtained in the first model with high cycle fatigue. The second model, combining the results of fatigue tests, is the equation for the dispersion of durability. The third model is the accumulated damage function under overloads. The efficiency of the RSI method is demonstrated by the example of the reliability assessment of the high strength bolts. Thanks to RSI method forecasting, during RBI-maintenance, parts can be used 3-5 times longer than with traditional methods.

ОЦІНКА ВПЛИВУ ЛЮДСЬКОГО ЕЛЕМЕНТУ НА БЕЗПЕКУ МОРСЬКОГО СУДНОПЛАВСТВА

The article is devoted to the study of safety management processes in maritime transport based on the use of international standards of the ISO 31000 series on risk management. The concept of acceptable risk is accepted as a theoretical basis of research, necessity of formation of which is caused by impossibility of creation of absolutely safe processes and faultless equipment and systems. The magnitude of acceptable riskmust combine the technical, economic and social aspects of shipping. In practice, this is always a compromise between the current level of security and the possibility of improving it by various methods. Further risk reduction makes the activity itself economically impractical and forces the owner to abandon such processes. In the analysis of the risks of accidents during the implementation of maritime shipping processes, it is proposed to identify four key factors: the human element, technical, technological and external. The probability of a security incident is calculated as the sum of sets of expert values of thesefactors on their weight. The weight of the factors is proposed to be determined on the basis of the ranking method according to Fishburne's formula.It is difficult to calculate the damage from an accident, as it must include the damage caused to the shipowner, crew members, cargo owners and so on. The article proposes the introduction of four levels of severity of consequences: catastrophic, critical, significant and insignificant, while the assignment of a particular incident to a particular level of consequences is determined by the method of expert assessments.Based on a thorough analysis of the special literature, the hypothesis of the primary influence of the human element on the probability of accidents during the implementation of processes in shipping was confirmed. A method of building a risk matrix is proposed, which is based on the concept of acceptable risk − a value that is accepted by the management of the shipping company as a compromise between ensuring any level ofsafety and the costs to be incurred for the implementation of this level. Three main components of the human element are considered: individual, production and organizational and a list of questions is proposed to determine the size of the human element. The use of the proposed method will, on the one hand, increase the efficiency of the formation of ship's crews, and on the other − to optimize the processes of training and coaching of seafarers during the voyage.

Fitness for work in employeers exposed to ionizing radiations with an increased susceptibility to malignancies.

The assessment of fitness for work regarding employees exposed to ionizing radiations and with an increased susceptibility to malignancies requires a particularly complex procedure. To determine, where possible, parameters for the assessment of fitness for work of employees exposed to ionizing radiations, who have increased susceptibility to malignancies. To set out suitable criteria for the assessment of fitness for work. Existing laws, technical standards, scientific literature and publications issued by international organizations and dealing with the health and safety of workers exposed to radiations may help establish criteria to inform assessment of fitness for work. Taking into account the concept of acceptable risk, the application of objective criteria as well as of subjective considerations may allow professionals to make individualised assessments of fitness for work.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

The Methodology and Mathematical Tools to Assess and Mitigate the Risk of Creating High-Tech Products

Background/Objectives: This article deals with financial and economic methods for risk neutralization, with risk mitigation, acceptance or transfer being of particular attention. Methods/Statistical Analysis: A management procedure comprised of two stages has been proposed as the principal methodological approach to solve this challenge. At the first stage, an alternative project implementation plan is selected, based on the cost-effectiveness criterion, and risk indicators are considered quality indicators. At the second stage, the risk management procedure that has been proposed by the authors is implemented, using a dedicated financial and production provision. Findings: To account for increasing uncertainty of sci-tech and economic support processes of implementation of programs, plans and projects aiming at developing a knowledge-intensive and high-tech product, principles of forming a new concept of acceptable risk have been justified. This concept exploits capabilities of the new tools to mitigate and compensate any risks arising from financial and economic, scientific and technical, and engineering and manufacturing factors. To assess acceptable innovative project implementation alternatives, an economic and mathematical model has been built up, based on the concept of acceptable risk. The authors have hereby proposed a method of multi-version program or project implementation plan management. This method relies on versions that have been justified and prepared in the course of long-term plan development and are supplemented by potential deviations from the established program path, which occur as a result of various risk conditions. To improve assessment accuracy, risks should be considered at the stage of forming a knowledge-intensive and high tech product development plan a priori or a posteriori. Application/Improvements: The main advantage of the methodology and tools proposed is an ability to develop a new managerial decision-making frame that allows for qualitative synthesis of multiple event scenarios and quantitative analysis of effects.

해외 건설 다수 프로젝트 관리를 위한 허용리스크 도출 - 중소·중견 건설기업 관점에서 -

해외 시장에서 한국 건설기업들의 지속적인 성장에 힘입어 중소 중견기업 역시 눈에 띄게 성장 하였다. 중소 중견기업의 진출 형태 또한 기존 단일 하도급 위주의 프로젝트 수행에서 다수 원도급 위주의 프로젝트 수행으로 고도화 되고 있다. 하지만 수익률 측면에서 여전히 적자 현상에서 벗어나지 못하고 있다(대기업 5건 중 1건 적자, 중소기업 3건 중 1건 적자 공사). 이에 본 연구에서는 고도화된 진출형태에 따른 중소 중견기업의 다수프로젝트 관리방안을 도출하고자 한다. 1965년부터 시행된 8,000여 건의 해외건설 준공데이터 정보를 기반으로 프로젝트 통합리스크를 측정한다. 또한 통합리스크와 수익률간의 상관관계를 기반으로 기업별 최대로 허용할 수 있는 허용리스크 도출 알고리즘을 개발하였다. 3개 기업을 선정하여 이들 기업의 재무제표 분석을 수행하였으며 기업의 허용리스크 구간이 기업의 성과와 상관성이 있다는 것을 도출하였다. 허용리스크 측정을 통해 중소 중견 기업관점에서 다수프로젝트 관리를 위한 중요한 참고자료를 제시할 수 있을 것이라 기대한다. Since Korean construction firms have steadily advanced into the international market, small and medium construction companies (SMCCs) have also advanced in such market. SMCCs's recent trend have clearly shown the changes of contract types from single subcontractor projects to multiple general contracting projects. However, among those multiple projects performed by SMCCs, 1 out of 3 projects were deficit projects that impact the overall pe rformance of the firm. To increase such performance, risk management for in international construction must be managed at the enterprise level for SMCCs. This research aims to create a multiple project management model for SMCCS that employs the concept of acceptable risk to assess the limit risk level for corporation to acceptable. Using the accumulated data from previous survey and International Construction Association of Korea (ICAK), integrated risk of each firm and their profitability of each project are analyzed. Through the analysis, each firm's acceptable risk level is derived. Through the two research steps, acceptable risk algorithm was developed based on corporate integrated risk and profit correlation. To prove the acceptable algorithm relevance, financial statement analysis of 3 corporation was derived that level of acceptable risk and financial statement were available. Through the approach, this research allows the firms to analyze the firm's capability and find projects that suits the firm's situation and capability.

Environmental Safety: Crisis is Continued

The article is devoted to the problem of modern Russian Federation environmental safety. Main reasons and consequences of the problem are analyzed. The differences of danger evaluation approaches between native MАC (maximal acceptance concentration) method and internationally accepted risk method are considered. The role of photosynthetic organisms as an integral indicator of the environmental safety level is defined. It is shown that many safety problems lie in the legal framework that ignores quantitative estimates of the safety level, the level of necessary and sufficient safety, the concept of acceptable risk and international risk management experience. Possible ways to resolve the crisis are shown in the article.

Ensuring Reliability of Estimates of Conformity of Aircraft Landing Indicators with Flight Suitability Standards

It is shown that the reliability of measurements of the monitored parameters for correct evaluation of conformity with flight suitability standards should be evaluated in terms of the concept of acceptable risk. An adequate mathematical model for metrological support of conformity assessment relies on a sample tolerance interval that is mainly parametric as that is the most economical for the required number of measurements. An original method is proposed for constructing this kind of interval for a wide range of distributions.

Choice of Measurement Scale for Evaluating Compliance of the Vertical Landing Velocity of Aircraft with Established Specifications

A scheme is proposed for correct analysis of the results of measurements in the concept of acceptable risk. The three basic methods for estimating the probability of finding a measured characteristic (nonparametric and parametric tolerance intervals and separate confirmation of specifications for the mathematical expectation and dispersion) within tolerance for different scales are compared for the example of measuring the accuracy characteristics of automatic aircraft landing systems. Recommendations are given for the use of the proposed methods and for the required number of measurements.

Heart disease regulations: implications for work and play – part 1

AbstractRegulatory authorities may exclude men with heart disease from specific occupations or activities to protect the individual and those around them. Clinicians are often asked to explain the rationale for these restrictions, and may be asked to provide advice on the safety of a diverse range of recreational activities. In the first of two articles, the authors outline the concept of acceptable risk and discuss the implications for patients with coronary artery disease and implanted devices. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons.

The future of the HIV pandemic.

The emerging HIV epidemics in countries of Asia and Eastern Europe will contribute significantly to the future of the HIV pandemic. Forecasts of the scale of these epidemics are subject to massive uncertainty, however, mainly because of the sensitivity of predictions to small alterations in parameters that are difficult to estimate. In most of these countries, HIV is currently concentrated among vulnerable populations such as injecting drug users, sex workers and their clients, or men who have sex with men. This distribution suggests an alternative to disease forecasting based on the techniques of risk assessment routinely used by environmental epidemiologists. Exposure mapping, dose-response curves and the concept of acceptable risk are some of the tools that may be useful for HIV risk management. This approach is illustrated by a description of exposure in Indonesia and an assessment of currently accepted risk of death for different causes including HIV in the Russian Federation. Although inappropriate for forecasts of heterosexual HIV transmission, mathematical models are shown to be useful for making qualitative predictions about the relative importance of different behaviours for the spread of HIV over time and for interpreting observed trends in HIV prevalence from sentinel surveillance sites.

Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives

This paper deals with several aspects of the assessment of hazard and risk of landsliding. In recent years the interest in this topic has increased greatly and there are many technical papers dealing with this subject in the literature. This article presents a summary review and a classification of the main approaches that have been developed world-wide. The first step is the subdivision between qualitative and quantitative methods. The first group is mainly based on the site-specific experience of experts with the susceptibility/hazard determined directly in the field or by combining different index maps. The approaches of the second group are formally more rigorous. It is possible to distinguish between statistical analyses (bivariate or multivariate) and deterministic methods that involve the analysis of specific sites or slopes based on geo-engineering models. Such analyses can be deterministic or probabilistic. Among the quantitative methods discussed is the Neural Networks approach which has only recently been applied to engineering geology problems. Finally several considerations concerning the concept of acceptable risk and risk management are presented.

Acceptable risk—an overview

AbstractThis paper offers an overview of the concept of acceptable risk. Variations in the definition of risk are addressed as well as criteria for measuring and evaluating risk. Risk acceptance depends on many factors, some of which are highlighted. The myth of zero risk is addressed with relevant examples such as dioxin and the U.S. space program. Practical applications of acceptable risk concepts are discussed, featuring the RISK MATRIX from system safety MIL‐STD‐882. Some sample guidelines and benchmarks are offered.

A Reappraisal of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

ABSTRACTThis article is a critique on the use of fault-tree analysis, probability calculus, and the concept of acceptable risk for addressing issues of public safety. Probabilistic risk analysis has been introduced into public debate to demonstrate the safety of technological hazards; however, its applicability is questioned because the analysis' methodology contains several serious flaws. These flaws include incompleteness, inaccuracy, and inappropriateness. Examples from recent accidents are used to illustrate these flaws.