Compound Disaster Research Articles

Future impacts of climate-induced compound disasters on volcano hazard assessment

Future impacts of climate-induced compound disasters on volcano hazard assessment

Increasingly dry/wet abrupt alternation events in a warmer world: Observed evidence from China during 1980–2019

AbstractThe evolution of the frequency of dry/wet spells is a hot topic in global climate change research. The synergistic effects of dry/wet spells make their consequences far more significant than a single disaster, having considerable impacts on hydrology, ecology, and economies, especially in the context of global warming. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)‐based identification of dry/wet spells was used to explore the evolution of the frequency of dry/wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events in the past four decades in China, makes up for the lack of research on the evolution of such compound disasters. China has been affected by dry/wet spells in many areas for a long time. Studies found that high‐frequency DWAA areas are concentrated in densely populated areas, China's essential food bases and core areas for economic development. Dry‐to‐wet (D–W) events and wet‐to‐dry (W–D) events basically increased or decreased at the same pace in this period. We innovatively find DWAA events (D–W events and W–D events) are projected to occur increasingly in a wider region of China. The frequency of D–W events across China has increased from 2.35 in the 1980s to 3.56 in the last decade, a 50% increase. On the other hand, W–D events increased from 2.6 to 3.23, increasing 24%. The three regions with the most remarkable changes in the past four decades are Inner Mongolia, northwest China, and north China, where D–W events increased by 121, 61, and 58%, respectively, and W–D events increased by 71, 57, and 61%, respectively. Hereby, it is vital to implement effective prevention against DWAA events in the area which has been neglected in the past decades because of lower frequency. These results may help policymakers develop suitable disaster mitigation plans for reducing the potential risks of extreme compound natural events.

A multi-country comparative analysis of the impact of COVID-19 and natural hazards in India, Japan, the Philippines, and USA

Several countries have been affected by natural hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic. The combination of the pandemic and natural hazards has led to serious challenges that include financial losses and psychosocial stress. Additionally, this compound disaster affected evacuation decision making, where to evacuate, volunteer participation in mitigation and recovery, volunteer support acceptance, and interest in other hazard risks. This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 on disaster response and recovery from various types of hazards, with regard to preparedness, evacuation, volunteering, early recovery, awareness and knowledge of different types of hazards, and preparedness capacity development. This study targets hazards such as Cyclone Amphan in India, the Kumamoto flood in Japan, Typhoon Rolly in the Philippines, and the California wildfires in the U.S. This study made several recommendations, such as the fact that mental health support must be taken into consideration during COVID-19 recovery. It is necessary to improve the genral condition of evacuation centers in order to encourage people to act immediately. A pandemic situation necessitates a strong communication strategy and campaign with particular regard to the safety of evacuation centers, the necessity of a lockdown, and the duration required for it to reduce the psychological impact. Both national and local governments are expected to strengthen their disaster risk reduction (DRR) capacity, which calls for the multi-hazard management of disaster risk at all levels and across all sectors.

Public Opinion in a Pandemic: Four Surveys Conducted with Americans throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic

The UF/IFAS Center for Public Issues Education in Agriculture and Natural Resources (PIE Center) conducted a series of national public opinion surveys to examine the perceptions of Americans related to COVID-19. The PIE Center conducted four surveys with ~1,500 Americans per survey from mid-March 2020 to January 2021. The surveys sought to understand Americans’ perceptions of a range of topics including health and communication concerns, vaccination perceptions and acceptance, mask understanding and willingness, and compound disasters and stress. Presentations in this panel highlight key areas of research from this survey series and share how communicators can use this research to craft campaigns to effectively reach Americans during COVID-19 and future public health crises.

Dynamic Evolution Analysis of the Emergency Collaboration Network for Compound Disasters: A Case Study Involving a Public Health Emergency and an Accident Disaster during COVID-19.

Compound disasters are highly complex and can involve different types of disasters. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, compound disasters of public health emergencies, accident disasters, and natural hazards have occurred frequently all over the world; therefore, it is important to establish effective compound disaster emergency collaboration networks. Thus, this study examined the 7 March building collapse in Quanzhou City as a case study. This case was a typical compound disaster involving a public health emergency and an accident disaster during COVID-19. Based on the network analysis, the overall response and dynamic characteristics of the emergency collaboration for compound disasters were examined in this study. A compound disaster emergency collaboration network (ECN) was constructed by identifying the interactional relationships between emergency organizations. After applying time slices, the dynamic evolution of network structure, organizational–functional relations, organizational attributes, and cross-organizational relationships were discussed. The research results showed the following: (1) The density and connectivity of the compound disaster ECN first decreased before increasing. Meanwhile, the evolution of the network structure followed a path from decentralized to concentrated and from being uneven to an equilibrium. (2) The characteristics and practices of compound disasters during different periods indicated varied emergency needs for emergency organizations. We found that the formation of emergency tasks not only involved the passive adaptation to match the practice for compound disasters, but also the active choices of emergency organizations when facing compound disasters according to their collective experiences and decisions. (3) The national emergency management departments, the government emergency rescue organizations, and the local governments were the core organizations of the ECN. Public health management departments and social organizations were also required to participate in the ECN to improve the diverse and heterogeneous distribution of resources. (4) With increased demands during a compound disaster emergency, the number of cross-organizational collaborative relationships gradually increased. This study explored compound disaster emergencies from the perspective of network analysis to improve our understanding of the current and developing organizational relationships and practices during a compound disaster event. The dynamic characteristics of compound disasters require efficient adaptation and improvements of the collaborative mechanisms involved during emergencies.

Responsiveness and Adaptability of Healthcare Facilities in Emergency Scenarios: COVID-19 Experience.

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed many vulnerabilities of the contemporary built environment along with limited preparedness and low efficiency in mitigating unexpected and unprecedented challenges. This article discusses the efficiency and responsiveness of basic hospital spatial layouts in three different scenarios: normal operation; the segregation of a large number of patients and still providing them with access to emergency healthcare, typical for a pandemic; and a sudden, extremely high number of admissions typical for compound disasters and terrorist attacks. A set of parameters and a method for general adaptability assessment (GAAT) that can be used as a tool in decision-making processes as well as evaluation of both existing facilities and the new models for resilient hospitals resulting from the experience of the pandemic are proposed. The paper emphasizes why factors among which adaptability, convertibility, and scalability should be at the very core of hospital development and management strategies. It also discusses new models of adaptable healthcare facilities that enable day-to-day operations to continue alongside a pandemic, and other emergency scenarios.

Emergency Response, Influence and Lessons in the 2021 Compound Disaster in Henan Province of China.

Henan province, located in central China, suffered a heavy rainstorm and an outbreak of COVID-19 from the middle of July to the middle of August. We review and investigate the emergency response to these two events. The influence of the compound disaster on provincial economic operations, fixed assets, consumer goods, the logistics industry, high-tech manufacturing, and strategic emerging industries is analyzed in detail. Since the province’s economic situation has been positive for a long time, the influence of the compound disaster was short-term. The countermeasures to the pandemic were efficient since they had previously been in practice at various times in 2020. However, in the face of unusual disasters such as the rainstorm, the gap between early warning and emergency response needs to be bridged, and the sources of relief funds should be diversified.

Changes in global heat waves and its socioeconomic exposure in a warmer future

Heat waves are continuous high temperature processes, which are defined as the daily maximum temperature exceeding the absolute-relative combined high temperature thresholds for more than three consecutive days in this study. Because of its unprecedented casualties, devastating compound disasters and irreversible deterioration trends, heat waves have attracted worldwide concern, while its global changes and socioeconomic impacts still need further study. Using three historical reanalysis data and multi scenario CMIP6 modeled data, Global Heat Wave Toolbox (GHWT) was developed to generate heat wave matrix from 1971 to 2100. The long-term changing characteristics of global heat waves were also analyzed. Next, population and GDP projections are employed to estimate future socioeconomic exposure and risks. The results show that except for high latitudes (latitude greater than 60°), high elevations and some coastal areas, heat waves have visited about 45% (±3%) of the global land area (excluding Antarctica). North Africa, North Australia, South Asia, and the Arabian Peninsula are detected as high heat wave area, where experience more than three heat waves with total duration over 15 days annually. Additionally, the average growth rate of global heat waves under SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 may be 2–3 times and 3–5 times of that under SSP1 2.6, respectively. Under SSP2 4.5, there may be about 7.32 billion people exposed to heat waves in 2100, accounting for 82.65% of the global population. Economic exposure may reach $433.37 trillion in 2100, accounting for 82.23% of the total global economy in that year. India could have the highest population and economic exposure, follow by populous countries, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, and major economies, such as China and the United States. Under SSP1 2.6, the increase in heat waves may slow down significantly. Moreover, North Africa, Australia, and Brazil are identified as rapid heat wave growth area. Our study highlights the heat wave of future growth and its socioeconomic impacts, as well as the necessity for climate mitigation and adaptation measures.

Joint distribution and risk of the compound disaster caused by rainfall and storm surge across Chinese coastal region

Joint distribution and risk of the compound disaster caused by rainfall and storm surge across Chinese coastal region

Revising Countermeasures Against Natural Disasters Act to Introduce a Coastal Compound Disaster Management Area

Revising Countermeasures Against Natural Disasters Act to Introduce a Coastal Compound Disaster Management Area

Simultaneous compound disasters from COVID‐19 and catastrophic flooding

Simultaneous compound disasters from <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 and catastrophic flooding

No Relief from Rain: Climate Change Fuels Compound Disasters

Climate change is increasing the risk of fire-rain events, raising mudslide concerns in fire-prone communities.

Anomaly Detection for Time Series with Difference Rate Sample Entropy and Generative Adversarial Networks

The spontaneous combustion of residual coals in the mined-out area tends to cause an explosion, which is one kind of severe thermodynamic compound disaster of coal mines and leads to serious losses to people's lives and production safety. The prediction and early warning of coal mine thermodynamic disasters are mainly determined by the changes of the index gas concentration pattern in coal mine mined-out areas collected continuously. The time series anomaly pattern detection method is mainly used to reach the state change of gas concentration pattern. The change of gas concentration follows a certain rule as time changes. A great change in the gas concentration indicates the possibility of coal spontaneous combustion and other disasters. To emphasize the features of collected maker gas and overcome the low anomaly detection accuracy caused by the inadequate learning of the normal mode, this paper adopted a method of anomaly detection for time series with difference rate sample entropy and generative adversarial networks. Because the difference rate entropy feature of abnormal data was much larger than that of normal mode, this paper improved the calculation method of the abnormal score by giving different weights to the detection points to enhance the detection rate. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, this paper employed simulation models of the mined-out area and adopted coal samples from Dafosi Coal Mine to carry out experiments. Preliminary testing was performed using monitoring data from a coal mine. The experiment compared the entropy results of different time series with the detection results of generative adversarial networks and automatic encoders and showed that the method proposed in this paper had relatively high detection accuracy.

Technological accidents caused by floods: The case of the Saga prefecture oil spill, Japan 2019

This study investigates an oil spill which involved an ironworks factory in Saga prefecture, during the severe flooding that hit southwestern Japan in late August 2019. The aim of the study is to provide an overview of the accident, highlighting the causes and the consequences of this compound disaster. Furthermore, the study analyses the emergency response and clean-up activities in order to identify lessons learned, and propose recommendations for future flood triggered oil spills. The work presented is based on the integration of information available in newspaper articles, government documents and reports, and data and interviews collected during two field trips in the affected area. The permanence of oil and the strong oil odour in adjacent crops as well as on irrigation canals and citizens’ houses was revealed during the first field trip, about one month after the accident. The analysis of the documentation on metal working oil revealed that it might have long-lasting impact in terms of environmental pollution. The presence of oil impacted also the implemented emergency response actions, since vertical evacuation, practiced by many residents during the disaster, actually put many of them in more danger as they ended up trapped in oil-covered floodwaters with strong vapours that were reported to cause nausea and skin irritation. Remarkably, it was also found that a previous oil spill had already occurred at the same site following a severe flooding event, highlighting the need to improve preparedness and develop more effective strategies for accident prevention. Disaster preparedness that specifically considers both the natural hazard and the potential for related technological scenarios should be enhanced, in particular regarding chemical accidents triggered by floods. Japan, as well as other parts of the World, is experiencing stronger rainfall events due to a changing climate leading to unprecedented flooding. Therefore, industry, government and citizens should consider the possibility of an increase of weather-related compound disasters in planning and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies.

통신 불안정 문제를 고려한 다중 ROS 코어 기반 재난대응로봇을 위한 통합관제시스템 개발

This paper proposes an integrated control system for multi-disaster response robots based on Robot Operating System (ROS). The contributions of this paper were as follows: 1) A multi-score-based system concept was proposed in consideration of network instability issues which might frequently occur in compound disaster environments; 2) A detailed ROS based software structure was implemented to apply the proposed system to real robots; 3) Hardware cockpit and graphical user interface (GUI) for an operator were implemented; 4) through the experiment, the problem of the system based on common ROS structure, the out-of-control state, was confirmed and we verified the proposed system using the scenario.

Tsunami Impact Assessment and Vulnerability Index Development using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model and Geographic Information System (GIS) – A Study on Mie Prefecture, Japan

Japan is highly prone to multiple natural hazards, such as typhoons, earthquakes, and tsunamis in general. However, the compound disaster that entailed earthquake, tsunami, and a nuclear crisis, along with disruption of the global supply chain triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, highlighted the need for a holistic risk assessment of impacts amplified by multiple disasters. According to the Cabinet Office of Japan, the occurrence probability of a Nankai Trough Earthquake and Tsunami is 70% within the next 30 years. It suggests the need for comprehensive impact assessment to enhance the disaster risk reduction strategies of the region. This study conducts a tsunami impact assessment using quantitative analysis to identify vulnerable industries in Mie Prefecture, Japan, famous for tourism, value-added sectors of aquaculture, food processing, and petroleum refining tanks situated in at-risk areas. To create a tsunami shock scenario, we apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using an input-output table of the Mie Prefecture (2015 version) and geographic information system (GIS). The street-level business entity data enable us to incorporate with the disaster scenario to provide evidence-based damage estimates of capital and labor loss due to a tsunami. We present the simulation results of output change, price change, external trade, and welfare analysis and propose creating a vulnerability index (VI) for disaster impact. These quantified and visualized indicators would provide informative implications for ex-ante policymaking and risk financing to cope with fragile sectors effectively.

Compound natural disasters in Australia: a historical analysis

ABSTRACT Compound disasters, defined here as two or more disasters occurring within a three-month window and within a given jurisdiction, pose complex disaster coordination and recovery challenges. Planning for the management of such disasters would benefit from a better understanding of their frequency and their underlying climate influences. Here we utilise an Australian natural disaster database of normalised insurance losses to show compound disasters are responsible for the highest seasonal financial losses. Though their component events occur most frequently in the eastern seaboard, they may also comprise disasters on both sides of the continent. There has been no temporal trend in their frequency since 1966. A new compound disaster scale is proposed for Australian conditions. A bootstrapping analysis reveals the pairing of Bushfire and Tropical Cyclone to occur far less often than would be expected by chance. This is because these perils occur most frequently under contrasting climate states. Climate variability influences the frequency, intensity and type of perils contributing to compound disasters with the clearest relationship being with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Given that ENSO is the most predictable climate driver at seasonal timescales, this may assist better forecasting of their occurrence and higher degrees of readiness.

Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness

Increasingly, we face compounding and interrelated environmental, socioeconomic, and political crises. Yet our approaches to these problems are often siloed, fragmented, and inadequate. The current pandemic, for instance, continues to collide with a number of other threats to human life and livelihoods. These include violent conflicts, displacement, insect swarms, droughts, heat waves, and structural inequality in the form of racism and gender discrimination. We believe we are at a critical juncture, faced with a need and responsibility to redesign institutions to be proactive, agile, and socially just when confronted with increasingly likely compound risks. We need to redesign institutions to be proactive, agile, and socially just when confronted with compound risks that have become increasingly likely. Image credit: Dave Cutler (artist). Because the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emergency is a protracted crisis that entails waves of infections over several months, the pandemic will inevitably continue to collide with other social and environmental shocks and disruptions, leading to increased risk of compound disasters (1). Globally, we have seen both extended and acute periods of stress on social and government systems driven by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as other natural and social hazards. When coupled with economic shocks, political fragility, and conflicts, these multiple stressors become concurrent drivers of complex emergencies that severely challenge domestic and international emergency response. Such crises present a need to better understand compound risks and prioritize collaborative action—we need to address neglected risk assessment challenges around communication, funding, governance, and social justice (2). Thus, while the world continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, we must draw on existing knowledge and frameworks to ensure that disaster risk management can address compounded risks. We must learn from the current crisis to prepare better resource-deployment strategies, governance directives, and policy responses. These responses, in turn, must connect … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: andrewk{at}iri.columbia.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Participatory Impetus for and Forms of Citizens’ Co-Owned Power Plants: Cases from Higashi-Ohmi, Japan

Citizen-led local participation is considered the key to a successful energy transition, and citizens’ co-owned power plants are an alternative and representative form of local participation. The extent to which citizens’ co-owned power plants can embody “locality, democracy, participation, energy autonomy, poverty reduction, and energy justice” has led to many controversial discussions. In response to these meaningful questions, this study argues for the focus to return to the impetus and driving forces of local participation in energy. This study proposes six possibilities for the impetus of local energy participation and the types of participation they may create. In the case analysis of the Higashi-Ohmi Model, in addition to the compound disaster of the 11 March 2011 earthquake and the transformation of the Japanese power grid, the driving factors depend on the self-consciousness of local promoters who insist on independence from policy influence. By linking local networks to discuss “local needs,” the residents form an integrated plan of “agricultural self-sufficiency, care system, and energy autonomy.” They promote the overall economic cycle of the region with energy regional energy currency, which inspired other rural forms of citizen energy participation. In addition, the simultaneous development of small-scale local enterprises and the ability of the local government to adjust policies centered on the needs of residents are important conditions for implementing the Higashi-Ohmi model.

Risk Perception and Adaptation of Climate Change: An Assessment of Community Resilience in Rural Taiwan

Over the last five decades, there has been a decline of rural communities in Taiwan due to urbanization expansion. In the past 10 years, the central government has implemented the Rural Regeneration Project (RRP) aimed at revitalization and sustainable development in rural Taiwan. During the project’s implementation, communities have faced several disasters as a result of climate change-induced extreme rainfall events. Perceptions and adaptation practices of climate change-induced extreme events are critical to community sustainability and resilience. The gap between perceived and actual risks that communities experience creates challenges for policy-makers in achieving sustainability goals. This study aims to evaluate the perceived climate change-induced flooding hazard perceptions compared to the scientific projection and actual hazard events in 287 rural communities implementing the RRP. This study revealed consistency in risk perception, in that communities facing high potential exposure to extreme rainfall showed higher awareness of various impacts of climate change. However, when comparing climate actions, communities exposed to low-potential hazard areas had a relatively higher degree of recognition of the benefits of adaptation to climate change. Moreover, 59 rural communities with low awareness and exposed to high potentials of extreme events were widely distributed among hills of western, southern, and northern Taiwan, where compound disasters such as mudslides can occur. This research suggests that there is a need to integrate climate change planning and work with communities to bridge the gap between perceived and actual climate risks. In particular, capacity training, counseling services, and implementation of adaptation practices should be integrated into institutional planning and management for providing assistance in disaster prevention, relief, and post-event restoration; also, encouraging climate actions can directly improve community resilience toward climate change. While investing in the sustainable development of rural communities is largely based on revitalizing economic development, this study revealed the link to ensure resilience and social-ecological sustainability in rural communities under climate change impacts.