Compound Disaster Research Articles

Livelihood challenges of ‘double strike’ disasters: Evidence from rural communities of southwest coastal Bangladesh during the Covid-19 pandemic and cyclone Amphan

The Covid-19 pandemic has adversely affected livelihoods in the Global South and exacerbated the effects of natural disaster. This study examines the ‘double strike’ of the Covid-19 lockdown and ‘super-cyclone’ Amphan on the 12 villages of Dakshin Bedkashi Union, southwest Bangladesh. It employs questionnaire surveys to assess the impact of the compound disaster on rural livelihoods over a period of five months, comparing pre-lockdown, post-lockdown, and post-Amphan phases. The results demonstrate the severe impact of the pandemic on income, occupation, and workdays, and consequently on livelihood resilience leading up to Amphan. Although effects vary moderately by livelihood category, village, and socio-spatial characteristics, overall rates of income reduction (58%) and occupation loss (77%) between the advent of the lockdown and the aftermath of Amphan are high. Thus, livelihood resilience to the double strike is generally poor. The study analyses the predictors of lost working days to illuminate the influences on livelihood resilience throughout the double strike. We conclude that the pandemic has presented novel challenges to this region, complicating vulnerability to more common cyclonic natural hazards. Finding that the degree of livelihood diversification is low in the sample, we recommend implementing diversification policies and strengthening local networks and community trust to better anticipate and combat the complex, varied impacts of double strike scenarios in future.

Investigation on coal spontaneous combustion in the gob of Y type ventialtion caving face: A case study

Gas and coal spontaneous combustion (CSC) compound disasters have become a common mode of serious accidents in coal mines. This study is aimed at revealing the characteristics of such compound disasters in the gob of Y-type ventilation fully mechanized top coal caving face with a high-level drainage roadway (HLDR) (hereafter referred to as “Y+HLDR” working face) and providing a theoretical basis for disaster prevention and control. With the W1310 fully mechanized working face of Gaohe Coal Mine taken as the research background, the distribution law of gas concentration field in the gob of the “Y+HLDR” ventilation mode under different air supply conditions was numerically simulated with the aid of COMSOL, and the area of gas and CSC compound disaster in the gob was divided quantitatively. The results show that data obtained from the field experiment coincide with the simulation results, which verifies the effectiveness of the simulation; Meanwhile, with the increase of air supply volume, the gas concentration near the working face is significantly reduced, and high-concentration gas is transferred to the deep part of the gob. The area where CSC induces gas explosions is divided by superimposing the gas and oxygen concentration fields that meet the conditions of compound disaster occurrence on the gob floor. It is concluded that the range of area with compound disaster risk is positively correlated with the air supply volume. The results of the simulation provide important theoretical guidance for the prevention and control of gob disasters.

Implementation of evacuation measures during natural disasters under conditions of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic based on a review of previous responses to complex disasters in Japan

We aimed to investigate how evacuation measures could be effectively implemented in the event of multiple disasters caused by natural hazards under conditions of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) pandemic, which is rapidly spreading worldwide. We conducted a review of literature focusing on complex disasters, entailing natural disasters in combination of outbreaks or endemics of infectious diseases. Using the Google Scholar search engine, we identified and reviewed 24 papers sourced from academia, governments, and concerned organizations, and associated data on such disasters, commencing with the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, which occurred in 1995. In light of our review, we developed a summary of correspondences and problems linked to compound disasters involving conjunctions of outbreaks/endemics and natural disasters that could offer insights for developing measures to deal with natural disasters that occur in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We subsequently attempted to differentiate the characteristics of evacuation measures relating to COVID-19 from those relating to other infectious diseases using three sets of extracted keywords: (1) surveillance and information sharing, (2) evacuation center environment and stockpiled supplies, and (3) community disaster risk reduction and community leadership. We identified issues relating to evacuation measures that would need to be explored further to improve disaster management and preparedness in the future.

Mental health consequences for survivors of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster: a systematic review. Part 1: psychological consequences.

To integrate scholastic literature regarding the prevalence and characteristics of the psychological consequences faced by survivors of the 2011 Fukushima earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disaster, we conducted a systematic review of survivor studies concerning the Fukushima disaster. In August 2019, four literature databases (PubMed, PsycINFO, Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection, and ICHUSHI) were used in the literature search. Peer-reviewed manuscripts reporting psychological consequences, either in English or Japanese, were selected. A total of 79 studies were selected for the review. Twenty-four studies (30.4%) were conducted as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey-large-scale cohort study recruiting the residents of the entire Fukushima prefecture. Study outcomes were primarily nonspecific psychological distress, depressive symptoms, post-traumatic stress symptoms, and anxiety symptoms. The rates of high-risk individuals determined by the studies varied significantly owing to methodological differences. Nevertheless, these rates were mostly high (nonspecific psychological distress, 8.3%-65.1%; depressive symptoms, 12%-52.0%; and post-traumatic stress symptoms, 10.5%-62.6%). Many studies focused on vulnerable populations such as children, mothers of young children, evacuees, and nuclear power plant workers. However, few studies reported on the intervention methods used or their effect on the survivors. As a conclusion, high rates of individuals with psychological conditions, as well as a wide range of mental conditions, were reported among the Fukushima nuclear disaster survivors in the first 8 years after the disaster. These findings demonstrate the substantial impact of this compound disaster, especially in the context of a nuclear catastrophe.

복합재해 영향을 고려한 산불 후 산사태 잠재적 피해 위험도 분석

Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of 8km2 in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.

Risk Factors for Problem Drinking among Evacuees in Fukushima following the Great East Japan Earthquake: The Fukushima Health Management Survey.

Many studies have consistently reported the bidirectional relationship between problem drinking and psychological distress following a disaster, but the risk factors of problem drinking following a disaster remain unclear. In this study, we therefore aimed to explore the risk factors associated with the incidence of problem drinking among evacuees after the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011. We used the data for evacuees of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, obtained from the Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey. A total of 12,490 individuals from 13 municipalities, which included the evacuation order areas after the accident, completed surveys between 2012 and 2013. The CAGE (Cutting down, Annoyed by criticism, Guilty feeling, and Eye-opener) questionnaire was used to screen the participants for alcohol dependence, and a score ≥ 2 indicated problem drinking. Logistic regression models were applied to investigate the possible predictors of problem drinking. The results showed that insufficient sleep and heavy drinking (≥ 4 drinks per day) were significant risk factors for the incidence of problem drinking in both men and women. Additional risk factors included family financial issues due to the disaster and trauma symptoms among men and a diagnosed history of mental illness among women. Other remaining variables were not significantly associated with problem drinking. The present study is the first to identify the risk factors for problem drinking following a compound disaster. Our findings could be used to develop a primary intervention program to improve evacuees' health and lives following a disaster.

Analysis of Disaster-Influenced Factors and Causes in Compound Disaster Districts in Coastal Areas

Analysis of Disaster-Influenced Factors and Causes in Compound Disaster Districts in Coastal Areas

An analysis of infection risk caused by the compound disaster of a large earthquake with flooding in an urban river catchment

An analysis of infection risk caused by the compound disaster of a large earthquake with flooding in an urban river catchment

The characteristics of the Mocoa compound disaster event, Colombia

A rainfall-induced compound disaster happened in Mocoa in the pre-dawn hours of 1 April 2017. More than 300 people were killed, and a large number of houses and roads were destroyed in the worst catastrophe in the history of Mocoa. To investigate this disaster, a detailed interpretation was carried out using high-resolution images. Analysis of disaster characteristics based on satellite image revealed that the disaster could be identified as a consequence of compound mountain hazards including landslides, debris flows, and mountain torrents. The mountain hazards converged in the mountain watershed, which amplified the disaster’s effects. Analysis considers that this disaster is the result of heavy rainfalls. Moreover, in-depth interpretation of rainfall data and satellite images spanning over 16 years reveals that the previous El Niño event (2014–2016) also played an important role, which caused reduced rainfall and vegetation coverage. The long period of drought brought by El Niño affected the growth of vegetation and reduced the ability of vegetation to cope with heavy rainfalls. The results reveal that both antecedent rainfalls and climate impact need to be taken into consideration for mountain hazard analysis.

The Risk Management Policy Suggestions for Effective Compound Disaster Management

The Risk Management Policy Suggestions for Effective Compound Disaster Management

Special Issue on Resilience Science and Resilience Engineering to Enhance Resilience in Shikoku Region of Japan

Japan has one of the highest levels of seismicity in the world. In the last few decades, Japan has been the site of many destructive earthquakes, such as the 1995 Kobe earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, 2004 Chuetsu earthquake, 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquake/Tottori-chubu earthquakes. Furthermore, we need to take disaster mitigation countermeasures in preparation for the next Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, Tokyo earthquake, etc. Disaster countermeasures against these earthquakes will be of vital importance to Japanese society in the future. As a specific example, if and when the next Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake strikes, it will cause widespread and compound disasters on the island of Shikoku and in southwestern Japan in general. The prefectures of Kagawa, Tokushima, Kochi, and Ehime are all on the island of Shikoku, yet the damages that a future Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake will cause are predicted to be quite different in each prefecture. Therefore, in preparing disaster mitigation strategies for the coming Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, these four prefectures and the distinguished universities involved in disaster mitigation research and education in them must be united in collaboration while making the best use of the individual characteristics of the prefectures and universities. Specifically, in terms of disaster mitigation preparations, universities on Shikoku have to develop and advance resilience science as it relates to upcoming disasters from a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, inland earthquakes, typhoons, floods, etc. In this special issue, many significant research papers from the fields of engineering, geoscience, and the social sciences by researchers from distinguished universities on the island of Shikoku focus on resilience science. We must apply their findings to society, putting them into practice to mitigate potential damages from any future natural events.

Academic Responses to Fukushima Disaster.

Since radiation accidents, particularly nuclear disasters, are rarer than other types of disasters, a comprehensive radiation disaster medical curriculum for them is currently unavailable. The Fukushima compound disaster has urged the establishment of a new medical curriculum in preparation for any future complex disaster. The medical education will aim to aid decision making on various health risks for workers, vulnerable people, and residents addressing each phase in the disaster. Herein, we introduce 3 novel educational programs that have been initiated to provide students, professionals, and leaders with the knowledge of and skills to elude the social consequences of complex nuclear disasters. The first program concentrates on radiation disaster medicine for medical students at the Fukushima Medical University, together with a science, technology, and society module comprising various topics, such as public risk communication, psychosocial consequences of radiation anxiety, and decision making for radiation disaster. The second program is a Phoenix Leader PhD degree at the Hiroshima University, which aims to develop future leaders who can address the associated scientific, environmental, and social issues. The third program is a Joint Graduate School of Master's degree in the Division of Disaster and Radiation Medical Sciences at the Nagasaki University and Fukushima Medical University.

National Crisis and Resilience Planning – How to Measure Huge and Compound Disaster that Causes National Crisis –

In the last two decades, three great earthquakes have occurred in Japan: the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake of 1995, the Mid-Niigata earthquake of 2004, and the East Japan Earthquake of 2011. After the East Japan earthquake, a devastating tsunami caused significant casualties and home destruction. More than 18,500 people were killed and more than 121,000 homes were destroyed. In addition, the tsunami destroyed nuclear power stations, which resulted in a severe crisis not previously experienced in Japan.On the other hand, earthquake disasters on a huge scale have been announced to occur as probability of about 70% in the next three decades. One such earthquake is Tokyo inland earthquake that destroys 610,000 homes and kills 23,000 people, and the other is the Nankai Trough earthquake that destroys 2,380,000 homes and kills 320,000 people. In addition, compound disasters where one disaster merges with another disaster may cause damage on a mega scale in this century.In order to address these mega disasters, it is very important to make efforts to reduce damage in the pre-disaster period. According to local plans for national resilience, each municipality must make efforts to reduce level of damage which is able to response trough a Business Continuity Plan (BCP). In addition, each municipality must implement long-term urban projects with a vision toward reconstruction after a mega disaster trough a pre-disaster recovery and reconstruction plan. It is necessary to make revolutionary efforts rather than standard disaster management efforts to reduce damages in the pre-disaster period.

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ASSESSMENT OF A COMPOUND DISASTER IN NORTHERN TAIWAN

Taiwan has high‐tech export‐oriented industries, such as semiconductors and electronic equipment. The capital city area is home to the main industrial complex and has a major fault line running through it. Three out of four nuclear power stations in Taiwan are located close to the capital. Using a single‐country computable general equilibrium model, we simulate a compound disaster consisting of a major earthquake and a power crisis induced by nuclear power shutdown in northern Taiwan to quantify its impact on the Taiwanese economy. Simulation results show that Taiwan's flagship industries, such as semiconductors and electronic equipment, would be severely affected by capital and labor losses in an earthquake but not in a power crisis. This implies that no policy intervention to allocate power to these industries is needed, although we are often tempted to do so in emergencies.

RPV Depressurization Strategy Analysis for Chinshan Nuclear Power Plant by Using MAAP5

When an accident occurs, operators in nuclear power plants (NPPs) must follow emergency operating procedures (EOPs) or severe accident management guidelines (SAMGs). However, EOPs and SAMGs are symptom-based procedures and guidelines to cope with severe transients and accidents. Operators depend on real-time operating parameters of NPPs to perform each action in EOPs or SAMGs. When a beyond-design-basis accident like the Fukushima Daiichi accident of 2011 occurs, EOPs or SAMGs cannot be performed effectively without adequate information. One lesson learned from the Fukushima accident is that such a situation requires advance preparation regarding the key indicators, the water supply, reactor pressure vessel (RPV) depressurization, and containment venting strategies so actions can be performed with limited manpower and time. After the Fukushima accident, Taiwan Power Company established ultimate response guidelines (URGs) and has implemented them in three operating NPPs. An URG is an event-based guideline developed to manage accidents caused by a compound disaster beyond the design basis. The purpose of this study is to find out the differences of RPV depressurization strategies between EOPs and URGs and to discuss the effect of different RPV depressurization strategies on fuel integrity. The plant responses and accident physical phenomena are simulated using MAAP5. The results show that the RPV water level should be maintained as high as possible and the RPV pressure should be controlled sufficiently low at the beginning of RPV emergency depressurization to avoid core uncovery and assure fuel integrity. The URG provides the better RPV depressurization strategy to respond to a beyond-design-basis accident and mitigate an anticipated severe accident consequence as early as possible.

Koichi Tanigawa: a passionate voice in radiation disaster medicine

Koichi Tanigawa: a passionate voice in radiation disaster medicine

Compound Strategy Forward to Compound Disaster Mitigation: Lessons from Hsiaolin Village, Typhoon Morakot 2009

In 2009, the heavy rainfall induced by Typhoon Morakot hit Hsiaolin Village that caused catastrophic flooding, landslides, landslide dam breakages and debris flows. Such a called “compound disaster” is defined as a disaster in which extensive floods or sediment transports occur simultaneously or consecutively at the catchment area during an event. It challenges current warnings, forecasting and responses to sediment disasters. New concepts and procedure thus are needed to cope with such “compound disasters.” Rainfall hydrographs show downpours of long duration, high intensity, high accumulation and large extent. To better delineate these disasters and provide possible coping strategies, we rebuild the temporal order and spatial distribution of the disaster processes involved. The study suggest correlating individual disaster types with rainfall through simulation. This could clarify the causality between what happened in Hsiaolin Village and related disasters. Our results will strengthen disaster prevention in debris flows and shallow landslides using strateghies that could then be applied to warning systems for deep-seated landslide and landslide dams. The derivative issues and the approach to compound disaster prevention are suggested for future tasks.

Geotechnical Distinction of Landslides Induced by Near-Field Earthquakes in Niigata, Japan

Landslides triggered by near-field earthquakes with epicentres directly beneath towns have attracted intense attention since the 2004 Mid-Niigata (Niigata-ken Chuetsu) Earthquake. Hilly and mountainous areas sustained heavy damage. Social problems developed when many towns became isolated because landslides cut off traffic and public service lifelines. Soil from landslides closed river channels and formed natural dams. The natural dams submerged some towns. Emergency measures were undertaken promptly to prevent debris flows caused by natural dam breaks. Subsequently, the 2007 Mid-Niigata Offshore (Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki) Earthquake and the 2011 Northern Nagano Earthquake struck the Niigata region. Landslides triggered by those earthquakes differed in terms of their number, scale, and location. Therefore, characteristics of the landslide sites of the respective earthquakes were examined to ascertain their topographical and geological features. Furthermore, differences in groundwater level and damage related to compound disasters were explained for discussion of the stability progress of damaged slopes.

Investigating the impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and evaluating the restoration and reconstruction performance

Three years have passed since the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) hit the northeastern part of Japan. The earthquake then triggered a devastating tsunami and a nuclear accident, which in turn created a compound disaster that claimed a large number of human casualties and devastated properties. The 2011 GEJE caused the economy growth to decline by 2.2% with the largest decrease experienced by the industrial sector (−7.1%), followed by the agricultural sector (−3.6%) and the services sector (−0.2%). The agriculture and manufacturing sectors underwent large decreases in growth since the economies of most of the affected prefectures have relied on these two sectors. Thus, by investigating the damaging impacts of the 2011 GEJE, we try to evaluate the restoration and reconstruction performance in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Our study finds that there has been significant progress made towards restoration and reconstruction on the areas affected by the disaster. Using prefectural data from 2000 to 2012, we apply econometric methods based upon the bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable to estimate the impact of the 2011 GEJE on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. From this analysis, two major insights emerged. First, the 2011 GEJE had a significant negative impact on agriculture and manufacturing sectors. On average, the impact on the agriculture sector was higher than on the manufacturing sector about twice as large. Second, the most affected prefectures experienced an impact about three times greater than the less affected prefectures in both agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

Human performance evaluation: The procedures of ultimate response guideline for nuclear power plants

In the nuclear accident which occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011, several units of Fukushima conventional BWR experienced a total loss of power and water supply triggered by a heavy earthquake and subsequent Tsunami which were outside design models. In the past, when an accident occurred, operators in nuclear power plants (NPP) followed emergency operating procedures (EOPs) or severe accident management guidance (SAMG). However, EOP and SAMG are symptom-based procedures to cope with severe transients and accidents, depending on real-time operational parameters. Ultimate response guidelines (URG), a plant specific interim remedy action plan, was developed to manage accidents caused by compound disasters which exceed design models. The URG guides the plant operators’ conduct of reactor depressurization, core cooling water injection, and containment venting. This study adopts NUREG/CR-6883 (Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis, SPAR-H) to evaluate human error probabilities (HEPs) of action and diagnosis in the current URG procedures. We found the human reliability of URG procedures analyzed by SPAR-H is about 85% (depending on different decision makers). Upgrading the training level of staff or enhancing plant managers ability to decide whether to execute URG will enhance the human reliability of URG procedures.