Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Research Articles

Integrated Method of Future Capacity and RUL Prediction for Lithium‐Ion Batteries Based on CEEMD‐Transformer‐LSTM Model

ABSTRACTAccurately predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium‐ion batteries for energy storage is of critical significance to ensure the safety and reliability of electric vehicles, which can offer efficient early warning signals in a timely manner. Considering nonlinear changes in the aging trajectory of lithium‐ion batteries, a method for predicting the RUL of lithium‐ion batteries was proposed in this study based on a complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) as well as transformer and long short‐term memory (LSTM) neural network dual‐drive machine learning model. First, the CEEMD algorithm was adopted to decompose the raw aging data of lithium‐ion batteries into intrinsic mode function (IMF) sequences and residual sequence, where the number of modal layers was produced by the proposed posterior feedback entropy and relevance (PFER) method. Second, prediction models of LSTM and transformer neural networks were established to predict IMF and residual sequences. Simultaneously, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) was used to obtain the optimal value of the hyperparameter learning rate for the RUL prediction model. Finally, the predicted IMF and residual sequences were combined to comprehensively calculate the future lifespan aging trajectory of lithium‐ion batteries. The aging data of two groups of lithium‐ion batteries were obtained from the CALCE at the University of Maryland as well as the laboratory at AQNU University to verify the proposed method. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively predict the RUL of lithium‐ion batteries; moreover, it exhibited better robustness and generalization ability.

Diagnosis of incipient faults in wind turbine bearings based on ICEEMDAN–IMCKD

AbstractTo address the difficulty in extracting early fault feature signals of rolling bearings, this paper proposes a novel weak fault diagnosis method for rolling bearings. This method combines the Improved Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) and the Improved Maximum Correlated Kurtosis Deconvolution (IMCKD). Utilizing the kurtosis criterion, the intrinsic mode functions obtained through ICEEMDAN are reconstructed and denoised using IMCKD, which significantly reduces noise in the measured signal. This approach maximizes the energy amplitude at the fault characteristic frequency, facilitating fault feature identification. Experimental studies on two test benches demonstrate that this method effectively reduces noise interference and highlights the fault frequency components. Compared with traditional methods, it significantly improves the signal‐to‐noise ratio and more accurately identifies fault features, meeting the requirements for discriminating rolling bearing faults. The method proposed in this study was applied to the measured vibration signals of the gearbox bearings in the new high‐speed wire department of a Long Products Mill. It successfully extracted weak characteristic information of early bearing faults, achieving the expected diagnostic results. This further validates the effectiveness of the ICEEMDAN–IMCKD method in practical engineering applications, demonstrating significant engineering value for detecting and extracting weak impact characteristics in rolling bearings.

Hybrid modeling approaches for agricultural commodity prices using CEEMDAN and time delay neural networks

Improving the forecasting accuracy of agricultural commodity prices is critical for many stakeholders namely, farmers, traders, exporters, governments, and all other partners in the price channel, to evade risks and enable appropriate policy interventions. However, the traditional mono-scale smoothing techniques often fail to capture the non-stationary and non-linear features due to their multifarious structure. This study has proposed a CEEMDAN (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise)-TDNN (Time Delay Neural Network) model for forecasting non-linear, non-stationary agricultural price series. This study has evaluated its suitability in comparison with the other three major EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) variants (EMD, Ensemble EMD and Complementary Ensemble EMD) and the benchmark (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Non-linear Support Vector Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest and TDNN) models using monthly wholesale prices of major oilseed crops in India. Outcomes from this investigation reflect that the CEEMDAN-TDNN hybrid models have outperformed all other forecasting models on the basis of evaluation metrics under consideration. For the proposed model, an average improvement of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), Relative RMSE and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values has been observed to be 20.04%, 19.94% and 27.80%, respectively over the other EMD variant-based counterparts and 57.66%, 48.37% and 62.37%, respectively over the other benchmark stochastic and machine learning models. The CEEMD-TDNN and CEEMDAN-TDNN models have demonstrated superior performance in predicting the directional changes of monthly price series compared to other models. Additionally, the accuracy of forecasts generated by all models has been assessed using the Diebold-Mariano test, the Friedman test, and the Taylor diagram. The results confirm that the proposed hybrid model has outperformed the alternative models, providing a distinct advantage.

A hybrid model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, sample entropy and long short-term memory neural network for the prediction of time series signals in NPPs

Accurate and reliable predictions are fundamental for the condition monitoring and maintenance of components and systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). In this work, we propose a hybrid condition prediction approach based on the combination of complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), sample entropy (SampEn) and optimized long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. Firstly, the CEEMD decomposes the time series signals into multiple subsequences called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), by doing so, the complexity of the time series signals can be reduced, and this facilitates the accurate prediction of the original signals. Then, in order to reduce the calculation cost of prediction models for subsequences, SampEn is used to measure the complexities of the IMFs, and the IMFs whose values of SampEn are lower than the average are aggregated into a new component. Finally, the LSTM with the hyperparameters optimized by the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA) is used to perform the prediction of each component. The prediction results of the original signals are reconstructed by synthesizing the predictions of all components. The proposed hybrid prediction model is utilized on the time series signals collected from an NPP. The results obtained show that the proposed approach can capture the characteristics of the signals and has better performance in prediction accuracy than other models.

Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Small Sample Models

Accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is essential for enhancing energy management and extending the lifespan of batteries across various industries. However, the raw capacity data of these batteries is often noisy and exhibits complex nonlinear degradation patterns, especially due to capacity regeneration phenomena during operation, making precise RUL prediction a significant challenge. Although various deep learning-based methods have been proposed, their performance relies heavily on the availability of large datasets, and satisfactory prediction accuracy is often achievable only with extensive training samples. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel method that integrates sequence decomposition algorithms with an optimized neural network. Specifically, the Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm is employed to decompose the raw capacity data, effectively mitigating the noise from capacity regeneration. Subsequently, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to fine-tune the hyperparameters of the Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) model. The final BiGRU-based prediction model was extensively tested on eight lithium-ion battery datasets from NASA and CALCE, demonstrating robust generalization capability, even with limited data. The experimental results indicate that the CEEMDAN-PSO-BiGRU model can reliably and accurately predict the RUL and capacity of lithium-ion batteries, providing a promising and reliable method for RUL prediction in practical applications.

Fault Feature Extraction of Rolling Bearing Based on Maximum Second-Order Cyclostationarity Blind Deconvolution and CEEMD-Teager

The operation of rolling bearings is directly related to the reliability of the whole rotating machinery. If the rolling bearing failure cannot be diagnosed and repaired in time, it will probably lead to equipment shutdown. The feature extraction process is an important part of bearing fault diagnosis. Some existing feature extraction methods are sensitive to noise and interference, and cannot fully explore and characterize useful information in nonlinear and non-stationary signals in complex scenes, and sometimes even lose important information contained in the data, resulting in low diagnostic accuracy. Therefore, a new method combining Maximum Second-order Cyclostationarity Blind Deconvolution (CYCBD) and Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) was proposed for feature extraction of rolling bearing faults. Firstly, the cyclic frequency is set according to the failure frequency, and the original signal is filtered by CYCBD. Then, the filtered signal is decomposed into multiple Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) by CEEMD, and the effective IMF components are selected by kurtosis criterion for reconstruction. Finally, the Teager energy operator is used to enhance the transient impact of the reconstructed signals. The results of simulation and comparison experiments show that the proposed method can extract bearing characteristics in different fault states more effectively, and the accuracy of network model diagnosis is improved compared with the traditional methods.

BiLSTM-InceptionV3-Transformer-fully-connected model for short-term wind power forecasting

Accurate short-term wind power prediction can help grid managers optimize the transmission and storage of electricity from wind farms, avoiding energy wastage and unnecessary operating costs, and ensuring the stability and reliability of power supply. However, stochastic nature and uncertainty data pose challenges for accurate wind power prediction models. This study combines complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), discrete wavelet transform (DWT), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), InceptionV3, Transformer, and fully connected neural networks for wind power prediction. The proposed prediction model can fully capture the nonlinear and dynamic characteristics of the wind speed data that are decomposed into intrinsic modal functions by CEEMD. Simultaneously, the prediction model can capture the local characteristics and cyclic variations of the data at different time scales based on fifth-order DWT. A dataset spanning 378 days from Natal is employed and the proposed model is compared with 19 other networks (e.g., ResNet, GoogleNet, SqueezeNet) and 15 other traditional regression algorithms (e.g., Gaussian process regression, least-angle regression, and nearest neighbors regression). The experimental results show that the designed BiLSTM-InceptionV3-Transformer-fully-connected model (BITFM) can reduce the mean absolute error by at least 38.75 % and the root mean squared error by at least 33.33 % compared with 19 other networks. Compared with 15 traditional regression prediction models, BITFM can reduce the mean absolute error by at least 57.41 % and the root mean squared error by at least 53.95 %. To further validate the prediction performance of BITFM, this study conducts tests employing data from the Santa Vitoria do Palmar. The experimental results indicate that BITFM consistently achieved the best performance metrics.

Application of improved adaptive method of CEEMD and data-drive in fault diagnosis

PurposeThe diagnosis and prediction methods used for estimating the health conditions of the bearing are of great significance in modern petrochemical industries. This paper aims to discuss the accuracy and stability of improved empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm in bearing fault diagnosis.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts the improved adaptive complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (ICEEMD) to process the nonlinear and nonstationary signals. Two data sets including a multistage centrifugal fan data set from the laboratory and a motor bearing data set from the Case Western Reserve University are used to perform experiments. Furthermore, the proposed fault diagnosis method, combined with intelligent methods, is evaluated by using two data sets. The proposed method achieved accuracies of 99.62% and 99.17%. Through the experiment of two data, it can be seen that the proposed algorithm has excellent performance in the accuracy and stability of diagnosis.FindingsAccording to the review papers, as one of the effective decomposition methods to deal with nonlinear nonstationary signals, the method based on EMD has been widely used in bearing fault diagnosis. However, EMD is often used to figure out the nonlinear nonstationarity of fault data, but the traditional EMD is prone to modal confusion, and the white noise in signal reconstruction is difficult to eliminate.Research limitations/implicationsIn this paper only the top three optimal intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are selected, but IMFs with less correlation cannot completely deny their value. Considering the actual working conditions of petrochemical units, the feasibility of this method in compound fault diagnosis needs to be studied.Originality/valueDifferent from traditional methods, ICEEMD not only does not need human intervention and setting but also improves the extraction efficiency of feature information. Then, it is combined with a data-driven approach to complete the data preprocessing, and further carries out the fault identification and classification with the optimized convolutional neural network.

Research on the Application of CEEMD and CEEMDAN in Seismic Random Noise Suppression

Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is an adaptive method for processing nonlinear and non-stationary data. Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) are noise-assisted signal processing methods developed from EMD. During seismic data acquisition, various types of noise, including random noise, are inevitably captured, and current methods for dealing with such noise are limited. In this study, these two signal processing methods were applied in simulated experiments and real seismic data to suppress random noise. By analyzing the processing effects and runtime, it was found that CEEMDAN offers better processing performance and speed, making it a valuable tool for practical applications.

Intelligent Detection Method of Atrial Fibrillation by CEPNCC-BiLSTM Based on Long-Term Photoplethysmography Data.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent arrhythmia characterized by intermittent and asymptomatic episodes. However, traditional detection methods often fail to capture the sporadic and intricate nature of AF, resulting in an increased risk of false-positive diagnoses. To address these challenges, this study proposes an intelligent AF detection and diagnosis method that integrates Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Power-Normalized Cepstral Coefficients, Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory (CEPNCC-BiLSTM), and photoelectric volumetric pulse wave technology to enhance accuracy in detecting AF. Compared to other approaches, the proposed method demonstrates faster preprocessing efficiency and higher sensitivity in detecting AF while effectively filtering out false alarms from photoplethysmography (PPG) recordings of non-AF patients. Considering the limitations of conventional AF detection evaluation systems that lack a comprehensive assessment of efficiency and accuracy, this study proposes the ET-score evaluation system based on F-measurement, which incorporates both computational speed and accuracy to provide a holistic assessment of overall performance. Evaluated with the ET-score, the CEPNCC-BiLSTM method outperforms EEMD-based improved Power-Normalized Cepstral Coefficients and Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory (EPNCC-BiLSTM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), EPNCC-SVM, and CEPNCC-SVM methods. Notably, this approach achieves an outstanding accuracy rate of up to 99.2% while processing PPG recordings within 5 s, highlighting its potential for long-term AF monitoring.

A hybrid residual correction method with auxiliary particle filter and conditional kernel density estimation for remaining useful life prediction

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) is crucial for prognosis and health management and provides an essential foundation for maintenance decisions. This study constructed a hybrid RUL prediction method based on residual correction to enhance prediction accuracy, minimize uncertainty, and mitigate errors caused by local fluctuations in the degeneration state within complex environments. This approach combined an auxiliary particle filter (APF), complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), and conditional kernel density estimation (CKDE). First, a Wiener degradation model was established, and the APF was used to acquire the initial state estimate of the equipment and residual difference between actual observations. Second, CEEMD was used to reconstruct the residual sequence and reduce interference. Subsequently, the nonparametric CKDE predicted the residual to correct the filter estimation. The corrected degeneration state value elucidated the local details of the system degradation process, and the point prediction of the RUL at the current time was obtained. The probability density distribution of the remaining life was estimated by substituting the modified degeneration state values into the kernel density estimation (KDE) model. Finally, the method was tested using an aircraft engine dataset. The results demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed method and its superiority over alternative approaches.

Short-term traffic flow prediction based on hybrid decomposition optimization and deep extreme learning machine

Precise and robust short-term traffic flow forecasting is vital to reduce carbon emissions and alleviate traffic congestion. However, developing a traffic flow prediction model that is both precise and robust is exceedingly difficult, owing to the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of traffic flow. This study proposes a novel hybrid model (CPQDELM) in pursuit of this objective. This model attains satisfactory prediction performance by integrating the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), permutation entropy (PE), dung beetle optimization algorithm based on quantum inspiration and multistrategy improvement(QMDBO), and deep extreme learning machine (DELM). The proposed model employs CEEMDAN and PE for data decomposition and reorganization and then uses the QMDBO algorithm to optimize the DELM parameters. Experiments are conducted in this study to validate the efficacy of the QMDBO algorithm and the CPQDELM hybrid model, respectively. First, the effectiveness of the improvement strategy proposed in this study is verified by comparing the proposed QMDBO algorithm with six other algorithms through experiments on the CEC2021 test function. Secondly, using two real-world datasets, comparing the CPQDELM hybrid model and twelve baseline models. The results indicate that the model proposed in this study performs better than the current methodologies. The RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the model proposed in this study are all decreased by 27.24 %, 25.97 %, and 33.56 %, respectively, when compared to the conventional DELM, using the S321k51 dataset of mountain scenic highway as an example.

Short-Term Air Traffic Flow Prediction Based on CEEMD-LSTM of Bayesian Optimization and Differential Processing

With the rapid development of China’s civil aviation, the flow of air traffic in terminal areas is also increasing. Short-term air traffic flow prediction is of great significance for the accurate implementation of air traffic flow management. To enhance the accuracy of short-term air traffic flow prediction, this paper proposes a short-term air traffic flow prediction model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) of the Bayesian optimization algorithm and data differential processing. Initially, the model performs CEEMD on the short-term air traffic flow series. Subsequently, to improve prediction accuracy, the data differencing is employed to stabilize the time series. Finally, the smoothed sequences are, respectively, input into the LSTM network model optimized by the Bayesian optimization algorithm for prediction. After data reconstruction, the final short-term flow prediction result is obtained. The model proposed in this paper is verified by using the data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport. The results show that the evaluation indexes of the prediction accuracy and fitting degree of the model, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), and R2 (Coefficient of Determination), are 0.336, 0.239, and 97.535%, respectively. Compared to other classical time-series prediction models, the prediction accuracy is greatly improved, which can provide a useful reference for short-term air traffic flow prediction.

Beyond Frequency Bands: Complementary-Ensemble-Empirical-Mode-Decomposition-Enhanced Microstate Sequence Non-Randomness Analysis for Aiding Diagnosis and Cognitive Prediction of Dementia.

Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of multi-channel electroencephalography (EEG) is crucial for interpreting dementia and related cognitive decline. Spatiotemporal patterns of EEG can be described through microstate analysis, which provides a discrete approximation of the continuous electric field patterns generated by the brain cortex. Here, we propose a novel microstate spatiotemporal dynamic indicator, termed the microstate sequence non-randomness index (MSNRI). The essence of the method lies in initially generating a sequence of microstate transition patterns through state space compression of EEG data using microstate analysis. Following this, we assess the non-randomness of these microstate patterns using information-based similarity analysis. The results suggest that this MSNRI metric is a potential marker for distinguishing between health control (HC) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD) (HC vs. FTD: 6.958 vs. 5.756, p < 0.01), as well as between HC and populations with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (HC vs. AD: 6.958 vs. 5.462, p < 0.001). Healthy individuals exhibit more complex macroscopic structures and non-random spatiotemporal patterns of microstates, whereas dementia disorders lead to more random spatiotemporal patterns. Additionally, we extend the proposed method by integrating the Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) method to explore spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of microstates at specific frequency scales. Moreover, we assessed the effectiveness of this innovative method in predicting cognitive scores. The results demonstrate that the incorporation of CEEMD-enhanced microstate dynamic indicators significantly improved the prediction accuracy of Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores (R2 = 0.940). The CEEMD-enhanced MSNRI method not only aids in the exploration of large-scale neural changes in populations with dementia but also offers a robust tool for characterizing the dynamics of EEG microstate transitions and their impact on cognitive function.

A distribution network traveling wave localization method based on CEEMD-DEO3S

A traveling wave head calibration way according to Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) and Three-point Symmetric Differential Energy Operator (DEO3S) is proposed to address the issues of noise interference and difficulty in precise positioning in local area network wave positioning. The way filters out low-frequency bandwidth in the fault data by performing CEEMD decomposition on the signal and then uses the DEO3S algorithm to define the time of arrival of the fault wave head. The emulation results indicate the proposed way can precisely extract wave heads even in the presence of a large amount of noise interference, and has good robustness and accuracy. Compared with traditional traveling wave positioning methods, it has obvious advantages and further improves the accuracy and reliability of traveling wave positioning.

A multi-energy load forecasting method based on complementary ensemble empirical model decomposition and composite evaluation factor reconstruction

Ensuring precise multi-energy load forecasting is crucial for the effective planning, management, and operation of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). This study proposes a novel multivariate load forecasting model based on time-series decomposition and reconstruction to handle the complex, high-dimensional multi-energy load data in IES and enhance forecasting accuracy. Initially, the model conducts a thorough correlation analysis and variable screening to minimize irrelevant data interference. It then applies denoising by decomposing the load sequence into modal components with distinct characteristics, using the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD). To overcome the unstable prediction accuracy inherent in time-domain decomposition methods, this study introduces an innovative composite evaluation factor (CEF) that reconstructs the modal components after considering their complexity, coupling, and frequency. The final predictions are generated using the proposed MTL-CNN-BiLSTM model, optimized with the attention mechanism. The results show that the proposed model significantly reduces error accumulation compared to traditional time-domain analysis methods, achieving a 37.40% reduction in average forecasting error and a 30.73% increase in forecasting efficiency.

An adaptive distribution-matched recurrent network for wind power prediction using time-series distribution period division

Precise wind power prediction (WPP) can address the issue caused by large-scale wind power grid integration to the power system operation. Most WPP research focus on the randomness and high volatility problem of wind power but ignore the time-series distribution shift (TSDS) problem. To solve the TSDS issue, this study proposes a novel hybrid model that incorporates complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), time-series distribution period division (TSDPD) and adaptive distribution-matched GRU (ADMGRU). First, CEEMD is utilized to decompose the nonstationary data into in sub-sequence, reducing complexity and randomness. Second, TSDPD is employed to automatically identify the underlying temporal segments within wind power sequence by maximizing discrepancies in distribution information between two periods, determining the quantity and respective boundaries of periods. Finally, ADMGRU, comprising Pre-train and Boosting-based importance assessment components, learns prediction model accurately by dynamically matching distribution periods. The former component initializes predictive model parameters and the latter learns the importance of each hidden state to assigns corresponding weights to different distributions. Numerous comparative experiments demonstrate the CEEMD-TSDPD-ADMGRU hybrid model surpasses existing popular models. Especially in spring scenario, compared with other four advanced models, the maximum reduction in MAE and RMSE are 54.64 % and 73.33 %, respectively.

Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on two-phase decomposition and mixture prediction model

Current load forecasting methods struggle with the randomness and complexity of multiple loads in regional integrated energy systems, resulting in less accurate predictions. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel two-phase decomposition hybrid forecasting model that combines complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, sample entropy, variational mode decomposition, and genetic algorithm-bidirectional long short term memory. The proposed approach begins by decomposing the load sequence into multiple intrinsic mode function components at different frequencies using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Afterward, the sample entropy values are calculated for each intrinsic mode function. The intrinsic mode function with the highest sample entropy value is subjected to a two-stage decomposition using the variational mode decomposition method. Through this technique, a series of stationary components is acquired. Subsequently, the bidirectional long short term memory model is optimized using the genetic algorithm, and the genetic algorithm-bidirectional long short term memory approach is employed to predict all the decomposed components. Finally, the prediction results are combined and reconstructed to obtain the final prediction value. Experimental results demonstrate the effective handling of non-stationary load sequences by the forecasting model, showcasing the highest level of accuracy in regional integrated energy system multiple loads forecasting.

Spatial and temporal evolution of heatwaves in Taiwan in a changing climate using multi-dimensional complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Recent decades have witnessed noticeable warming in highly developed cities. Taiwan, a densely populated island characterized by its monsoon-dominated climate and unique mountainous topography, has experienced an average temperature increase of 1.0–1.4 °C in the last century, significantly exceeding the global average. This research introduces the Multi-dimensional Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MCEEMD) algorithm, providing a novel approach for analyzing gridded climate data and uncovering spatiotemporal temperature patterns in Taiwan. This methodology offers valuable insights into the localized impacts of climate change. The spatiotemporal evolution of temperature from 1960 to 2020 is analyzed to estimate the warming trend associated with climate change. Essential factors related to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which leads to temperature disparities between urban and rural areas, are also examined. Warming and the UHI effect are critical components of climate change, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in urban areas. The study investigates extreme weather events from 1960 to 2020, focusing on heatwaves. It projects changes in the frequency and duration of heatwaves for the mid (2046–2065) and late 21st century (2081–2100). Notably, Taipei experienced a warming trend exceeding 1.5°C in the 2010s, which was likely influenced by urbanization. Additionally, areas experiencing the sharpest increase in heatwave events (more than 1.5 events) by 2000 were predominantly in highly developed cities across northern and southern Taiwan. Further analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario suggests that, by the end of the 21st century, heatwave events could last for at least 20 days in many regions, with the potential to extend to nearly a month during the summer.

Price prediction of power transformer materials based on CEEMD and GRU

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy has fueled the expansion of power grids. Power transformers are key equipment in power grid projects, and their price changes have a significant impact on cost control. However, the prices of power transformer materials manifest as nonsmooth and nonlinear sequences. Hence, estimating the acquisition costs of power grid projects is difficult, hindering the normal operation of power engineering construction. To more accurately predict the price of power transformer materials, this study proposes a method based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) network. First, the CEEMD decomposed the price series into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Multiple IMFs were clustered to obtain several aggregated sequences based on the sample entropy of each IMF. Then, an empirical wavelet transform (EWT) was applied to the aggregation sequence with a large sample entropy, and the multiple subsequences obtained from the decomposition were predicted by the GRU model. The GRU model was used to directly predict the aggregation sequences with a small sample entropy. In this study, we used authentic historical pricing data for power transformer materials to validate the proposed approach. The empirical findings demonstrated the efficacy of our method across both datasets, with mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of less than 1% and 3%. This approach holds a significant reference value for future research in the field of power transformer material price prediction.