Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on two-phase decomposition and mixture prediction model

Abstract

Current load forecasting methods struggle with the randomness and complexity of multiple loads in regional integrated energy systems, resulting in less accurate predictions. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel two-phase decomposition hybrid forecasting model that combines complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, sample entropy, variational mode decomposition, and genetic algorithm-bidirectional long short term memory. The proposed approach begins by decomposing the load sequence into multiple intrinsic mode function components at different frequencies using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Afterward, the sample entropy values are calculated for each intrinsic mode function. The intrinsic mode function with the highest sample entropy value is subjected to a two-stage decomposition using the variational mode decomposition method. Through this technique, a series of stationary components is acquired. Subsequently, the bidirectional long short term memory model is optimized using the genetic algorithm, and the genetic algorithm-bidirectional long short term memory approach is employed to predict all the decomposed components. Finally, the prediction results are combined and reconstructed to obtain the final prediction value. Experimental results demonstrate the effective handling of non-stationary load sequences by the forecasting model, showcasing the highest level of accuracy in regional integrated energy system multiple loads forecasting.