Commercial Flows Research Articles

Economic rebalancing and geoeconomic challenges for China: the case of intra-BRICS and foreign direct investments

Este artigo investiga um importante desafio que a China enfrentará nos próximos anos: as consequências geoeconômicas do rebalanceamento de seu regime de crescimento. Do lado da demanda, o investimento e as exportações chinesas abrem espaço para o consumo, reduzindo as importações de bens de capital e aumentando as importações de bens de consumo. Do lado da produção, a indústria perde terreno para os serviços. Contudo, cada regime implica diferentes fluxos comerciais e de investimento e padrões de influência, cooperação e parceria. Assim, a distribuição espacial do comércio e do IED da China deve mudar, modificando os vínculos econômicos com seus parceiros, como os BRICS, e seus poderes de negociação na economia mundial. Este estudo avalia a trajetória das importações chinesas de bens e dos IEDs de outrosBRICS. Em termos de comércio, avaliamos a competitividade das exportações de cada país em relação à produção chinesa. Sobre os fluxos de IDE, consideramos a distribuição setorial do investimento realizado pelas maiores Empresas Multinacionais (EMN) do BRICS para avaliar as mudanças prováveis. Nossa pesquisa sugere que os impactos do rebalanceamento em cada BRICS são geralmente negativos e assimétricos, dependendo da posição destes últimos na divisão internacional do trabalho, moldada pela própria influência geoeconômica da China.

The Bioeconomy and Foreign Trade in Food Products—A Sustainable Partnership at the European Level?

This research addresses the problem of the synergistic relationship between the sustainable development of the green economy (bioeconomy) at the European level and the commercial flows with food. Mainly, two components were analyzed and integrated: A qualitative one, on the perspective of the development of the bioeconomy at the European level, and a quantitative one, on the study of the nature of the inter-correlation between the exogenous indicators of foreign food trade (exports and imports) and the relevant endogenous indicators (the labor force, gross added value of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, research and development expenditure, forest area, fossil fuel energy consumption, and renewable energy consumption), for 24 European countries over a 22 year period. Exports and imports of food products are positively influenced by the added value of the agricultural sector and by the share of research and development expenditures, both in the short and long term. Renewable energy consumption influences exports in the short term, but in the long term, the forest area has a significant positive impact. Imports are negatively influenced by renewable energy consumption. The findings of this research can provide support for the future mix of policies.

African international trade in the global value chain of lithium batteries

The global value chain of lithium batteries (GVCLB) is revolutionizing different industries in the world, such as computers and vehicles, since their batteries allow the energy storage produced from various sources of electricity, renewable and conventional, online with the approaches to sustainable development and even the circular economy, highlighting that the first type is ideal for use in rural areas, as a social value, when there is no power grid. Within this global context, studies in Africa on this subject are scarce, in spite of this continent has a series of climatic characteristics, which allow the use of lithium batteries to improve the quality of life of a large percentage of its population. For this reason, the objective of this research is to analyze the degree of participation of Africa in the different components of this chain, focusing on the international trade of lithium batteries, the decomposition of comparative advantages, trade flows, and the balances of countries. Our findings show a low level of international trade in African countries within the GVCLB, except in Tunisia and South Africa, which depend heavily on imports of lithium batteries in relation to the world, especially from China and Japan. As for the commercial flows of these products within the continent, South Africa is the indisputable leader in Africa, because it exports lithium batteries to the highest number of countries.

Conformance Checking of the Activity Network with the Social Relationships Structure in the Context of Social Commerce

Control and management of e-markets are one of the essential needs in social commerce context. Social commerce systems include not only informational flows, financial and goods/services but also social relationships and interactions. The focus of this research is to find the meaningful relationship between social relations and the network of various commercial flows among human resources (i.e., activity network) in social commerce context. If the activity network conforms with social relations, then business processes and, in general, the e-market can be steered by social relations. The proposed research framework has been constructed from a combination of process mining concepts, multi-layered network modeling, network analyzing, and social theories. Such a combination in the conformance checking field is an original contribution of this study, not yet explored. Two simulated sample datasets in four different versions are applied for the evaluation. Furthermore, Friedman's statistical test is employed to proof of the research hypothesis and gain more confidence in the obtained results. The results indicate that, despite the structural mismatch of the social network with the activity network, social relations affect the formation of business interactions among human resources. This effect is also different for various flow types. Multi-layered network modeling demonstrates this difference.

Альтернативна модель конкурентного ринку електроенергії України (частина 2)

The development of a competitive electric energy commodity market in Ukraine does not guarantee the creation of the necessary conditions for the security of electricity supply and the adequacy in developing the energy system. The conflict of commercial interests with the physical needs of the energy system causes the need to introduce the capacities market as a complementary segment to the electric energy commodity market. Ukraine has determined that the capacities market will function in the form of competitive procedures according to the targeted scope-oriented approach. Ukrainian capacities market has not yet been launched, but it is already possible to assume its potential ineffectiveness and inefficiency. Significant disadvantages of the electric energy cycle of Ukraine prove the insufficiency of a targeted approach to its organization. In addition, there are also pathological systemic problems with regard to the electrical energy industry of Ukraine (narrow diversification, inflexibility, heavy overtime load of power units, isolation and rapid development of renewable sources of electricity generation). The article proposes an alternative model of Ukrainian capacities market, which provides for: the organization of the balancing capacities market for the preliminary dispatching of both physical and commercial electric energy flows in the energy system; formation of the market of traditional capacities to ensure the adequacy of the development of the energy system; development of the market of alternative capacities for the integration of renewable electric energy generation, taking into account the requirements of flexibility of the energy system. The authors have identified significant advantages of this model compared to the proposed one, which will ensure operational security of electricity supplies and adequacy of the development of the energy system.

Conventional Theory’s Relevance: Evidence from Japan

Abstract The formidable surge in the volume of international trade after 1960 stimulated surveys designed to ascertain to what degree the commercial flows among nations reflected the structure of their economies, in other words, how tight was the correlation between international exchanges and the specific attributes of participating nations. In fact, scholars were keen to test the relevance of the conventional Heckscher-Ohlin theory, that is, to what extent did nations’ exports reflect their endowment with factors of production, more specifically, whether their exports used their abundant factors intensively. I try to show that, although most of the tests reached their purpose in that they confirmed the conventional theory’s predictions, in certain cases such as Japan, whose economy is arguably idiosyncratic, factor specificity is more relevant than factor intensity in explaining, not only the country’s international specialization but also the premises of its uncanny 20th century ascendance to the top of the world economy.

Monitoring vessel traffic in Rio de Janeiro port area: Control of marine antifouling regulations

Nowadays, we live in a global interdependence time, without precedents, in which the national boundaries do not represent significant barriers to the trade between nations anymore. According to the International Marine Organization (IMO), more than 90% of all the global commercial transport flows through sea. This heavy vessel traffic produces a lot of impact and changes in the marine environment. Each vessel of tonnage higher than 100t has a registration number on IMO that guarantees that the vessel is by the security, health and environment conventions of the Organization. The present study has a goal of developing a methodology to monitor the vessel movement in Rio de Janeiro port area, for verifying the presence of vessels non-signatories of the A928 convention (The International Convention on the Control of Harmful Antifouling Systems on Ships). The data were obtained from the Marine Traffic app, in the period between December of 2015 and October of 2017. Data such as registration number on IMO, homeport, dates, and registration flag was compiled for 3015 vessels. Those that were derived from non-signatories countries to the AFs Convention represented 3.78% of the total of monitored vessels. This percentage is lower than the global tonnage of the non-signatories countries, which is 6.45%. The proposed method is laborious but proved to be efficient to indicate the possibility of environmental issues related to marine traffic, even before a ship's arrival in the destination port.

Parsing the Effects of Wind and Solar Generation on the German Electricity Trade Surplus

Germany has experienced rapid growth in its renewable electricity generation capacity in the past fifteen years. This development has been accompanied by a drop in wholesale electricity prices and significant net export surpluses. This situation has given rise to discussions in policy circles concerning the drivers behind these dynamics. The paper at hand empirically analyzes historical cross-border commercial flows (CBCF) of electricity from Germany by applying a Ridge Regression model to parse the effects of the growing shares of renewable energy capacity on the commercial electricity exchange between 2012 and 2016. In case of PV, the fraction of PV generation (marginal effect of PV on export) that is exported correlates positively with the level of PV generation. However, the marginal effect of wind on export is negatively correlated with the level of wind generation. A possible explanation for this finding as it relates to wind feed-in could involve the high degree to which the grid is constrained at times of high wind penetration.

136 The impact of Swine Awake® on commercial nursery flows from a PRRSV positive source

Abstract The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of Swine Awake® (SA; NutriQuest, Mason City, IA) on commercial nursery pigs from a single-source positive for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Virus (PRRSV). This study included 16 nursery rooms located on 3 farms. Rooms were alternately assigned between Control and SA treatment for a total of 8 rooms per treatment, with both treatments equally represented at each farm. Control and SA treatment rooms averaged 1,144 and 1,125 pigs placed for 47.4 and 48.3 days on trial, respectively. Swine Awake was administered via water for 21 d post-placement. Serum samples were collected from 30 pigs in each room at placement before MLV PRRSV vaccination and pooled in groups of 5 within room. Pooled serum samples along with oral fluid samples pulled the last days of trial were sent for PRRSV quantification by PCR. Performance data were analyzed using the MIXED procedure of SAS. Farm, start BW, and days on trial were used as covariates in the model when significant (P < 0.05). Twenty-seven of 96 pooled serum samples and 29 of 30 oral fluid samples tested positive for PRRSV with CT values ranging from 26.2 to < 37, suggesting pigs were viremic at placement with virus present throughout the study. End BW, ADG, and G/F did not significantly differ between treatments (P > 0.10); however, a numerical improvement of 0.27 kg for end BW and a 1.9% improvement in G/F were observed for pigs given SA compared with Control. Reduced percentage of dead or euthanized pigs was observed for pigs given SA compared with Control (4.1 vs. 5.9%, P = 0.06). Overall, nursery growth performance in pigs coming from a PRRSV positive flow was not different between treatments, but total mortality was decreased by 31% in barns where SA was administered.

Air pollution, output, FDI, trade openness, and urbanization: evidence using DOLS and PDOLS cointegration techniques and causality.

Globalization has led countries to a strong interdependence among them, which is reflected in trade and capital flows. Simultaneously, in recent decades, the world is rapidly urbanizing. This dynamic has generated a process of economic growth with serious consequences for the environment, particularly in air quality. In this context, the objective of this research is to examine the causal link among carbon dioxide emissions per capita as a measure of air pollution, real per capita output, FDI, trade openness, and urbanization in 100 countries during 1980-2017. First, we used the cointegration test of Pedroni (JAMA 61:653-670, 1999) and Westerlund (JAMA 69:709-748, 2007) to find the equilibrium long and short term, respectively, and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (JAMA 29:1450-1460, 2012) test to verify the direction of causality among the series. Second, we estimate the strength of the cointegration vector for individual countries through a dynamic ordinary least squares model (DOLS), and for country groups using a dynamic panel model with ordinary least squares (PDOLS). The results found indicate the existence of short- and long-term equilibrium among the variables globally and by groups of countries. The strength of the cointegration vector is strong in high and middle-high-income countries. At a global level, the results of the causality test suggest the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship that goes from output, urbanization, and FDI to air pollution, and a bidirectional relationship among trade and air pollution. These results are sensitive to the inclusion of the level of development of the countries. Our results suggest that the mechanisms to increase output, along with commercial and FDI flows, and urbanization are factors that play a relevant role in the determination of air pollution. Consequently, public policies should take these aspects into account in efforts to mitigate air pollution.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership as Megaregulation

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) brings into legal effect a new form of inter-governmental economic ordering and regulatory governance on an extended “megaregional” scale. This chapter proposes the concept of “megaregulation” as a way to understand what is distinctive about TPP and about the particular type of governance project which it partly pioneered. Megaregulation as exemplified by TPP is characterized by five features. First, it comprehensively covers commercial flows in goods, services, capital, and data. Second, its broad aim is to create a generalized freedom to operate for large corporations and their affiliates across the set of national markets covered by the treaty. Third, as its method, megaregulation employs regulatory alignment — nudging and shaping both the substance and the processes of national regulatory systems. Fourth, megaregulation involves a large but not universal (like the WTO) scale in volume of covered economic activity and creates significant gravitational pulls and emulatory pressures for third parties. Fifth, megaregulation takes the treaty-institutional form which prescribes detailed rules and empowers some inter-governmental or transnational institutions and the communities of practice spawning around them. TPP’s specific version of megaregulation further advances an ordo- or neo-liberal vision of the state and its relation to markets that deliberately builds out contrasts with China’s party-state economic ordering, thereby giving it lasting geopolitical and geoeconomic relevance.

Short-Term and Long-Term Discount Rates for Commercial Real Estate

How should executives discount commercial real estate cash flows up to 30 years in the future? In this paper, we develop a novel methodology to estimate the term structure of discount rates for commercial real estate cash flows. We find that the average term structure is downward sloping: longer maturity cash flows carry less risk, and the appropriate discount rate for these cash flows is quite often lower than that estimated from the unconditional single period CAPM. These findings are consistent with recent theory suggesting that rare-catastrophic events can lead to an inverted term structure of discount rates in real estate.

"One-Stop" Dispute Resolution on the Belt and Road: Toward an International Commercial Court With Chinese Characteristics

On July 1, 2018, China’s Supreme People’s Court published the “Provisions on Several Issues regarding the Establishment of International Commercial Courts.” The Provisions followed on the heels of a January announcement from the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms alluding to plans to establish a dispute settlement mechanism dedicated to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The Provisions confirmed that what the press had swiftly branded the “Belt and Road Court” (BRC) will comprise three international commercial courts. Regardless of analysts’ discipline or affiliation, the response to the initial proposal, and now to the framework laid out in the Provisions, has been predictably binary, reflecting a longstanding division in interpretations of China’s commercial dispute resolution policies.One branch, call it the sociological school, explains China’s policies with reference to the country’s history and culture. It contends that a direct line may be drawn from the Chinese people’s traditional aversion to litigation to their government’s preference for informal and private mechanisms for dispute resolution. With reference to the BRC, the causal narrative this school presents is one of continuity, contending that to understand the BRC, the basic explanatory trajectory must proceed from China outward to the international arena. An alternative branch, call it the political-economy school, argues that China’s policies toward international commercial dispute resolution respond to the same goals and imperatives as any other state. China’s policies are viewed as a self-interested response to factors such as commercial flows, security considerations, and development goals. Insofar as such matters are subject to constant flux, China’s dispute resolution policies are understood to be commensurately fluid. Here, the basic explanatory trajectory proceeds from the international arena inward into China.As with all binaries, there is a middle way—an approach that interprets China’s commercial dispute resolution policies generally, and the newly established BRC in particular, as a product of continuity as well as change, influenced as much by internal dynamics as external imperatives. This Article adopts this middle way in order to identify and assess the principal tensions that have confronted, and will continue to challenge, the designers of what will amount to an international commercial court with Chinese characteristics.

The Dragon and the Condor: China’s rise and Latin America’s developmental anxieties

In the present article, we aim to present a critical analysis of China’s rise to the position of global power in the international scenario focused on some related political inflexions in Latin America. Holding on a qualitative methodology, based on the analysis of primary and secondary sources, we argue that China’s rise and its growing presence in Latin America, mostly regarding commercial and financial flows and also infrastructural project, is reinforcing a neo-extractivist paradigm the new hegemonic model of development for the region. This process has been generating a series of social and environmental conflicts, providing us a space to discuss the ambivalence and the contradictions presented in Chinese discourse, which alludes to the establishment of a pacific world order that is committed to ecologic sustainability, win-win relations, and the harmonious development of the actors in the international scenario. This work will be critically oriented by some concepts presented in contemporary Latin American developmental thought. Some examples are neoextractivism, com-modity consensus and reprimarization. For us to better situate the discussion, some illustrative cases will be brought to the fore

Hi-DMM: High-Performance Dynamic Memory Management in High-Level Synthesis

High-level synthesis (HLS) of field programmable gate array (FPGA)-based accelerators has been proposed in order to simplify accelerator design process with respect to design time and complexity. However, modern HLS tools do not consider dynamic memory allocation constructs in high-level programming languages like C and limit themselves to static memory allocation. This paper proposes a dynamic memory allocation and management scheme, called Hi-DMM, for inclusion in commercial HLS design flows. Hi-DMM performs source-to-source transformation of user C code with dynamic memory constructs into C-source code with the dynamic memory allocator and management scheme developed in this paper. The transformed C-source code is amenable to synthesis by commercial tools like Vivado HLS. Relying on buddy tree-based allocation schemes and efficient hardware implementation of the allocators, Hi-DMM achieves 4x speed-up in both fine-grained and coarse-grained memory allocation compared to previous works. Experimental results obtained by including Hi-DMM with Vivado-HLS show that dynamic memory allocation of FPGA memory resources can be achieved at a much lower latency with minimal resource overhead, paving the way for synthesis of dynamic memory constructs in commercial HLS flows.

Reservoir characteristics and controlling factor of shale gas in Lower Cambrian Niutitang Formation, South China

Large-scale exploration and development of shale gas in Lower Cambrian Niutitang Formation of South China has been carried out in recent years, but the result is not good, only except some drilling wells in Jingyan-Qianwei area of Sichuan Basin and Yichang of Hubei obtain some commercial gas flows. In order to clarify reasons for failure of shale gas exploration and development in Niutitang Formation around Sichuan Basin and to provide reservoir geological parameters for subsequent efficient exploration and development, taking a case of shale gas reservoirs in Lower Cambrian Niutitang Formation in northeast Chongqing around Sichuan Basin, some experimental methods, such as analysis of organic carbon pyrolysis, determination of equivalent vitrinite reflectance, focused ion beam scanning electron microscope (FIB-SEM) and other are adopted in this study. The results show that the average TOC of shale samples in Niutitang Formation in northeast Chongqing is 3.1%, the equivalent vitrinite reflectance ranges from 3.0% to 4.0%, and the degree of thermal evolution reaches the post-mature–metamorphic stage. Due to excessively high degree of the thermal evolution, organic pores in shale samples are not developed in Lower Cambrian Niutitang Formation in the study area, instead, micro-nano pores dominated by intergranular pores and intragranular pores are developed in the shale. The degree of the thermal evolution controls the sustaining gas generation of kerogen and retained liquid hydrocarbons in the shale, it also controls the development of organic pores of the shale. The evolution of organic pores and hydrocarbon generation in the shale of Niutitang Formation in northeast Chongqing around Sichuan Basin do not match best with each other, that is, during development period of a large number of organic pores, thermal evolution degree of reservoirs is further enhanced because the strata are not uplifted in time, therefore, the quantity of organic pores is decreased sharply, the shale gas would be escaped due to the absence of organic pores as effective storage space after the shale gas generation. Therefore, the efficient exploration and development of the shale gas in Lower Cambrian Niutitang Formation in South China should be focused on the shale development area where the shale is characterized by moderate thermal evolution degree (2.0% < Ro < 3.0%) and shallow buried depth, that is, the shale distribution area with paleo-uplift or paleo-buried hill.

La strada proibita. L'uso delle strade nel sacro romano impero in epoca moderna

The Road. On the use of roads in the early modern Holy Roman empire. Exploring the distinction. Exploring the distinction between ordinarv and forbidden roads in the Holy roman Empire, this article addresses a central feature of the early modern roadscape. In the fractures lands of early modern Germany, the ability to criminalize the use of certain road and force mobile populations onto ordinary roads was an essential tool for channelling commercial flows through a ruler's dominion and his toll stations. the first part of this article reviews the prevalence of roads in the medieval and early modern Old Reich and discusses the difficulties that many authorities faced when they attempted to enforce such restrictions vis-a-vis neighbouring authorities, mobile populations, and local communities in Thuringia, one of the Empire's most fragmented regions. Centring on a official who leveraged his authority highlights the importance of a micro-historical approach for understanding road politics in old-regime Europe. The conclusion places the results in a broader methodological perspective

Quo Vadis? (Un)scheduled electricity flows under market splitting and network extension in central Europe

The increasing role of intermittent renewable generation demands for an efficient spatial exchange of electricity. However, the technical characteristics of electricity transmission reduce the available cross-border capacity due to unscheduled flows in a zonal pricing framework. Using the detailed unit commitment and dispatch model stELMOD for the European system, we analyze the development of unscheduled flows under different market and network design scenarios for 2020. We apply ACER's flow definition to decompose commercial schedules and physical flows into unscheduled flows and its fractions, i.e. loop and unallocated flows. Our analysis reveals that unscheduled flows increase on average by 47% from 14.7 GW in 2013 to 21.7 GW in 2020 mainly driven by higher cross-border trade capacities and increasing renewable generation. These unscheduled flows, which affect adjacent countries through e.g. a reduction of tradeable cross-border capacity, can be effectively reduced through a delimitation of bidding zones or HVDC network expansion. Thus, even if a discussion of national impacts of national and European policies is inevitable, they can have substantial implications on adjacent regions through the interconnected electricity system. Therefore, a system-wide view should complement national perspectives to ensure an efficient system development with increasing shares of intermittent renewable generation.

Highlighting priority areas for bovine viral diarrhea control in Italy: A phylogeographic approach

The prevalence and genetic diversity of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in a geographic area are largely influenced by live animal trade and management practices. Despite control and eradication programs currently underway in several European countries, the risk of BVDV spread within and among countries is still present. BVDV-1 is the predominant type circulating in European cattle population. In this study, a phylogeographic analysis was applied to the BVDV-1 highest prevalent subtypes in Italy to reconstruct the origin and spatial-temporal distribution and to trace main viral flows between different locations to highlight priority areas for BVDV control. A comprehensive dataset of BVDV-1b (n = 173) and 1e (n = 172) 5′ UTR sequences was analysed, including both novel and published sequences from Italy and from European countries bordering and/or with commercial cattle flows with Italy. A common phylogeographic pattern was observed for BVDV-1b and 1e subtypes: interspersion from multiple Italian areas and European countries was widespread until the end of the last century, whereas significant local clusters were observed starting from 2000. These findings support a continuous viral flow among different areas over long time scales with no evidence of significant geographical structure, while local transmission networks are limited to more recent years. Northern Italy has been confirmed as the area of origin of the main clades of both BVDV subtypes at national level, acting both as a crucial area for introduction and a maintenance source for other areas. Piedmont, Central and Southern Italian regions contributed to limited geographical distribution and local BVDV-1b and 1e persistence. On the whole, priority control measures for BVDV-1b and 1e in Italy should be focused on: i) implementation of BVDV systematic control in all Northern Italian regions to break the viral flow from larger to smaller animal populations; and ii) breaking the dynamics of infections in regions with self-maintenance of BVDV by voluntary control programs.

América del Sur en el comercio global (2007-2016)

This paper analyzes the main characteristics of the trade of goods and services of South America according the changes in the international context. Mainly, it analyzes the commercial flows, the main commercial partners and the main characteristics of the goods and services marketed. In addition, the analysis is done at the region and country level.